Regarding the presidential elections taking place today in the United States, teleSUR had an exclusive interview with Juan Carlos Valero, political analyst. teleSUR
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00:00We are now joined from the south here with Juan Carlos Valares, the chair of the International
00:06Department at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Ecuador.
00:10Welcome Juan Carlos from the south.
00:13Thank you very much.
00:14It's a pleasure to have you.
00:15Juan Carlos, first question.
00:18Yesterday was the last day of campaigning for both of the main candidates, Donald Trump
00:21and Kamala Harris.
00:22As polls are opening across the nation, what impact can those last day of rally have in
00:29the outcome of this election?
00:31Well, I think it's very important to notice that both candidates are appealing to their
00:38target vote.
00:40In the case of Kamala Harris, I think she has more of a chance to appeal the Latino
00:45vote in the sense that she's proposed policies that are not as hard or restrictive as Donald
00:52Trump's.
00:53At the same time, Donald Trump seems to be addressing the issue of migration as one of
00:58the most important elements of his platform by taking an approach that's very condemning
01:05of the situation.
01:08Can we expect, because we have been seeing coming into the days people have been preparing
01:11and people have had a higher turnout in early voting in these elections, are people concerned
01:17that they could be balanced during this electoral process?
01:20Well, I think this is considered to be one of the most important elections in the United
01:26States and for the United States in the world, since we are faced with two very opposing
01:33views of presidency.
01:36On the one hand, we have a very radical and predictable Donald Trump that in a way scares
01:44a lot of the markets, a lot of the governments, even though he has support of Latin American
01:51governments such as Millet or the Bolsonaro supporters.
01:57However, I think Al Harris in that sense brings more of a certainty or at least more establishment
02:05following and in that aspect, I think it's more reassuring in a way that the last days
02:13of campaign have shown how volatile the speech has become, especially with Donald Trump.
02:21Taking into consideration the global context of the different crises, especially of violence,
02:25of war, of aggression, like in the Middle East, what impact can foreign policy of the
02:30U.S. have depending on the outcome of these elections?
02:36It's a very interesting question because I think it depends on the topic we're talking about.
02:41When it comes to trade, I think the markets and especially big corporations put their
02:47hope more in Trump since he has more of a bilateral and transactional relation with
02:55their partners.
02:56At the same time, when talking about war or security, even though both candidates have
03:05expressed that they will have a hard take on situations that involve the United States'
03:14interests, I think in that aspect Kamala Harris has more of a multilateral approach.
03:20We should expect continuation in terms of approaching multilateral forum and trying
03:28to negotiate with their strategic partners, the European Union.
03:35It's also interesting when we talk about China, for instance, to see that both candidates
03:40have an approach where they want to stop China's increase in terms of the world's economy.
03:47That's something that we should see regardless of who wins.
03:50Now, when it comes to the approach on wars, we've heard Donald Trump with a very drastic
03:59speech as to how to stop wars, but he hasn't really said how he would do it.
04:04That is related to the unpredictability that I was referring to before, whereas in the
04:08case of Harris, she is in a dilemma, especially regarding the war on Gaza, the Israeli intervention
04:17on Palestine, because at the beginning, she started by aligning with Israel and defending
04:24the position of the United States on Israel, but as we see with the Muslim vote also being
04:30into consideration a key aspect for the election, Harris has shifted a little bit into the element
04:40of also stopping the war in order to protect human rights in Gaza.
04:46Migration and border control is also another topic where both candidates have different
04:50views.
04:51How can this impact on the vote during the day?
04:56I think migration, you've talked about the most spoken issue for the audience in the
05:04United States.
05:06The American society is very concerned about the topic of migration, and the way they've
05:11approached it also differs depending on the candidate.
05:15For instance, in the case of Trump, he continues with his 2016 speech and approach on having
05:23a harsh policy regarding migration, whereas Harris, even though aligns with Trump in terms
05:29of strengthening the border patrols and the controls at the border, has had more of a
05:40cooperative approach when it comes to also talking with the Latin American countries,
05:45especially with Mexico, since it's the biggest migration that we've seen in the last decades,
05:51in order to also cooperate in terms of how these migrants cross the border.
05:58I think it's very important also to emphasize the fact that the Latin vote in the United
06:04States, even though it has historically been in favor of the Democratic Party, it has now
06:11had a tendency, depending on the state, like Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, to increase favoring
06:19the Republican Party.
06:21And that's something that says a lot as well, because when we talk about the Latin community
06:26in the United States, whether it is first, second, third generation of Latin people,
06:32we're going to see there a shift in terms of their tendency of who to vote for, right?
06:38I consider that regardless of who wins, we're going to see more of a policy that, in order
06:45to satisfy the American society, will have a strong take on the issue of migration.
06:52One last question, Juan Carlos.
06:54In your opinion, could we possibly expect a shift in direction in terms of strategies
06:59of the U.S. foreign policy towards, for example, Cuba and Venezuela and other nations in terms
07:03of the international sanctions and the coercive measures that are imposed against these nations
07:08and others in the region and in other parts of the world?
07:13I think yes.
07:15They do differ, depending on whether it is Trump or Harris.
07:18Let's remember that during the Democratic presidency of Obama, the relations with Cuba
07:25started taking a shift towards the traditional isolationist and imposing sanctions approach
07:31of the United States regarding Cuba.
07:33However, when Trump was in the presidency, he totally erased those efforts and went back
07:41to a very strict and impulsive sanctions approach, both to Cuba and Venezuela.
07:47It's interesting to see how, after the elections, the very controversial elections that took
07:53place in Venezuela, Harris stated that there should be a showing of the polling records
08:04from the Venezuelan government in order to be recognized, a thing which we know has not
08:10happened.
08:11However, in the case of Donald Trump, he hasn't really stated much about these countries.
08:17However, it is expected that he will take a hard-line approach regarding the countries
08:22considered to be leftist in this aspect, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela.
08:30We've heard comments of Donald Trump calling all of the leaders from these countries dictators,
08:36and that's something that tells us a lot about what the approach would be should Donald Trump
08:42win the election.
08:43Thank you, Juan Carlos, for your times and inputs here from the South.