We interview Juan Carlos Valarezo, Chair of the International Relations Department at the Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador (PUCE) for a deep analysis in the importance of this elections in Germany. teleSUR
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00:00In Germany, voting progresses in the early general elections.
00:03More than 59 million voters are called to vote in an election marked by the rise of
00:07the far-right win.
00:09Early general elections began this Sunday in Germany to elect a new Bundestag for the
00:13next four years, in a contest marked by challenges such as tensions with NATO, economic inequality,
00:19anti-immigration policies, among others.
00:22Polling stations began to receive votes from citizens at 8 a.m. local time and will be
00:26in operation until 6 p.m. local time.
00:30During the election, 630 members of the lower house of parliament will be elected, who in
00:34turn will vote for a new chancellor.
00:37These are early elections because the ruling coalition of the Social Democratic Party,
00:40the Greens and the Liberals disintegrated last November.
00:50Let's now welcome to From the South our next analyst to continue going deeper in the importance
00:54of today's election in Germany.
00:56We're joined by Juan Carlos Valareso, Chair of the International Relations Department
01:00at the Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador.
01:03Welcome Juan Carlos.
01:04Thank you very much for having me.
01:07It's our pleasure.
01:08Juan Carlos, what are the defining issues shaping voter priorities in this election?
01:21Climate change, economic recovery, post-pandemic, migration, or rising energy prices?
01:27How do these differ from past elections?
01:29Well, I see a similarity with the world trends in places where there have been elections,
01:36like in the United States, for instance.
01:38The two topics that are predominantly being debated right now by citizens and the candidates
01:44are immigration and the situation of the economy.
01:49In the case of Germany, I think particular consideration given that it's the biggest
01:55country and the most populated in terms of the European Union status.
02:02So I think these elections are rather important because it would set the tone for the debate
02:07as to what happens with immigration.
02:09We see certain parties like the extreme far right party, AFD, talking about closing borders
02:17and taking a similar approach to Donald Trump when it comes to deportations and detentions
02:24of people.
02:25And then we have a more, I would say, probably still strong policy against immigration, like
02:34the Christian Democratic Union.
02:37However, at the same time, it is important to notice that when we talk about the economy,
02:44it's not going through a very good patch with the economy.
02:47It's had an extension for the last couple of years.
02:51And this is not necessarily due to the mismanagement of bad government of Olaf Scholz.
02:57We are seeing here a world trend that involves many variables, like the competition with
03:04the car industry in China or the situation with the war in Ukraine that has led Germany
03:10to look for other sources when it comes to get the gas.
03:14And therefore making it more expensive for Germans to acquire this resource.
03:19So I think it's a very complicated situation right now, especially regarding these two
03:24issues.
03:25You were referring to the Alternative for Germany party.
03:27This election has been marked by a rising support for the far right.
03:32Just yesterday, hours before the polls opened, there were large demonstrations in Berlin
03:36of people protesting against this far right section of politics in Germany.
03:41In your opinion, what is the impact that the Alternative for Germany party will have
03:45and how it will shape the political discourse in the country as polls expect that they will
03:50gain, they will be the second most, second majority in the parliament?
03:59I think it's very risky.
04:00I think it's very dangerous, given that the proposals by this party are very drastic.
04:08I remember looking at a rally of the Alternative for Germany party and they had the intervention
04:14of Elon Musk.
04:16And this shows how this is more of a world trend situation, also local, given the context
04:23of what Germany experienced in the last election.
04:27Let's remember that in turning, the AFD won the majority of the votes in the local elections.
04:34Of course, as you say, it is expected to be the second political force in the Bundestag.
04:39However, at the same time, it is also a situation that puts the other parties and the citizenry
04:45in general in alert.
04:49Let's remember that we haven't had a situation like this happening in Germany since the Second
04:53World War.
04:54And the rise of the far right is very dangerous, given that it's a very unexpected situation,
05:02just like we are seeing now in the United States.
05:05With Paul suggesting fragmented parliament, in your opinion, what coalition configurations
05:10are most likely?
05:11Could we see a first-ever tripartite government?
05:14And how might that impact policy stability?
05:20I consider it very unlikely that any of the parties would have a coalition with the AFD.
05:28There were speculations in the past that Friedrich Merz, the candidate for chancellor
05:34for the Christian Democrat Union, had mentioned the possibility of this happening, but then
05:41it was totally negated by saying that that is not an option.
05:47At the same time, then, the rest of the parties that will remain, the Social Democrats, this
05:53is a big loss for them, Olaf Scholz's party, and this shows how they will definitely need
05:59to negotiate with the Greens.
06:01And I see a possible Christian Democrat Union aligning or conceding certain space for the
06:09Social Democrats in order to form a coalition.
06:12Let's remember that in the past, Germany has already done this in the era of Angela Merkel,
06:18that managed to stay in power for 16 years.
06:21That's an example of how this situation could happen.
06:24I mean, because of the political system Germany has, it leads to negotiations, and this could
06:31take weeks or even months to finally have a coalition that could form a government.
06:38At the same time, I think it is very important that we keep our eyes open when it comes to
06:43these negotiations, because as we've seen in many other countries in the world, every
06:48time, more and more politics is becoming very unexpected in terms of the results at the
06:53last minute.
06:55We saw in the recently concluded Munich Security Conference, U.S.-German relations take a dive.
07:01How might the election outcome affect Germany's strained ties with the U.S.?
07:08It's a very complicated situation, especially given that just a couple of days ago, Olaf
07:14Stolz has mentioned that the relations with the United States, especially with this tendency
07:19of the U.S. to impose tariffs and to look for supposedly equality in this has led Germany
07:28to take a stand and say that they will also impose tariffs on products that come from
07:34the United States.
07:36We also have to consider that this is not just an economic relation.
07:39It's a political and security relation as well.
07:42And given that the United States is trying to push aside the European Union as a whole,
07:48as an organization, as a region, in terms of dealing directly with Russia to try to
07:54end the conflict in Ukraine, it's definitely putting some pressure on Germany to show its
08:01strength as a European leader.
08:04So I think regardless of what the outcome is for tonight, it's likely to expect that the
08:10Christian Democrats have the majority, according to the latest polls, and that would put them
08:14in a situation where they have to negotiate.
08:17I would see a more likely situation of dealing with European partners, with France, with
08:24neighboring countries in Belgium, in the Netherlands, to try to strengthen the position of
08:31the European Union.
08:32We have to consider that the situation in Ukraine is taking very unexpected turns when
08:38it comes to the unpredictability of Donald Trump's actions regarding the situation, and
08:45therefore Germany has to be very careful when it comes to the relation with the United
08:49States. Thank you, Juan Carlos, for your time and your inputs here in From the South.
08:55Thank you very much.
08:57It's our pleasure to have you, as always.