• 2 weeks ago
Transcript
00:00These are two teams that I am selling earlier this week on game time decisions.
00:09We went through some updated win totals and I played both of these teams under their current
00:14number Vikings at 10 and a half at plus 130 and the call today and a half at minus 142.
00:20I don't particularly love where either team sits and I certainly don't like their upcoming
00:24schedule for the rest of the season here, Joe, how do you see this game playing out
00:29between Minnesota and Indianapolis?
00:30Well, from the spread perspective, I lean to the Colts with Flacco catching the five
00:34and a half.
00:35The reason why I say that is because again, I still believe in them having a little bit
00:38more consistency than Minnesota right now.
00:41I mean, the one thing that Minnesota was dominant in when they did start five and O was that
00:46their defense was rock solid.
00:48They had the second best rush defense in all of the NFL and you look now on back to back
00:52games, granted one of them was Detroit, but they've given up 30 points per game.
00:56This offense now with Sam Darnold has shown halves of consistent football, but now it
01:02started with the jet game.
01:03They dominated the first half, second half.
01:05They looked inconsistent, Darnold missing throws.
01:08He can't hit JJ.
01:09Instead of scoring touchdowns, Donnie, they're settling for field goals.
01:13They did it again, yet again in the Thursday night game against LA, which cost them the
01:17victory.
01:18I can't buy in until I see this game play out early on.
01:21I'm taking the Colts.
01:22I do lean to the under because again, I just don't believe in that offense of Minnesota
01:26right now.
01:27Even though JJ's putting up numbers, give me the Colts in the under.
01:30I actually think this is the perfect time to put Joe Flacco in because if you look at
01:33Minnesota, a little bit leaky on the back end where you know Joe Flacco's got that arm
01:36to get it downfield.
01:37You finally got healthy wide receivers who look like they're going to be healthy at least
01:39for the season, Pittman, Downs and Pierce, but bigger than that, the play action pass
01:43will work.
01:44Ryan Flores is a great defensive coordinator.
01:46Like I honestly think he'd probably put Anthony Richardson in an absolute pretzel today.
01:49I don't think he can do that with Joe Flacco so the whole field is open.
01:52I'm taking the points.
01:53Am I saying that Indy should be able to go in there and get a victory?
01:55No, but I don't think that we're going to head into the fourth quarter where this is
01:58any more than a one possession game.
01:59I'll take it.
02:00I just want to say last time they were there was 33-0 first three game.
02:05Kirk Cousins came back so just saying all that's...
02:09We watched that game.
02:10Saturday.
02:11Shout it out.
02:12Oh, I had a Jonathan Taylor receiving prop in that game, like 18 and a half.
02:17He caught like an 18 yard grab on the first play and got injured on the play and I lost
02:20the bet.
02:21I think actually that's back when they were still doing refunds when star players got
02:25hurt.
02:26So, there's a lot of interesting things within this football game, but one thing that jumped
02:31off the page for me was if you look at Flacco, one of the selling points I think for Indy
02:36is he's played clean football.
02:38Seven touchdowns to one interception and I thought to myself, man, I wonder what Flacco
02:43is to throw a pick and he was around minus 130, minus 135.
02:48The Vikings have done a really nice job picking quarterbacks off this season and then I look
02:52back at what he did with the Browns last year, because everybody's probably like, man,
02:55this is the same...
02:56He threw a pick in every single game that he started for the Cleveland Browns last season.
03:00I'm playing Flacco to throw a pick.
03:01I think it is that simple.
03:02Oh, he's throwing it today.
03:03Yeah.
03:04Yeah, you know what I mean?
03:05I think it is one of those...
03:06I know that that's for some people a little off the beaten path, but Flacco throwing an
03:10interception at minus 135 when sometimes we see those quarterbacks, those guns...
03:14I mean, remember Jameis Winston with last week minus 200 to throw an interception?
03:18It should have happened.
03:19Oh boy, oh boy.
03:20It should have lost.
03:22Kyle Hamilton, I think, was on the drop there.
03:24Notre Dame.
03:25Eddie Jackson.
03:26No wonder he dropped.
03:27We're going to hear from a Notre Dame alum in a second here, but I do think Flacco to
03:31throw an interception is a very, very legitimate look within this football game.
03:36I am fascinated to see how the wide receiver room plays out.
03:39Josh Downs has clearly been Flacco's number one when he's in the game, but Michael Pittman
03:44gets enough work.
03:45They've just not had any type of rhythm so far, but it's reflected in the props market.
03:50Josh Downs is about 10 or 12 yards higher than Pittman, and we know typically the idea,
03:55Joe, is that Michael Pittman is the number one wide receiver for the Indianapolis Colts.
04:00Yes.
04:01You have to get him the football in this matchup.
04:02I believe Pittman will go through his number today and potentially he can get close to
04:06100 yards in this matchup.
04:09We've seen receivers eat.
04:10Pukunukuwa, Cooper Cup had great success on Thursday night against that secondary, and
04:15if they're not generating a pass rush, for the most part, there was only one or two times
04:19that Matt Stafford I saw under pressure in that ballgame, especially in the second half.
04:24As long as he has a clean pocket, you know, he can pick apart that secondary.
04:28So again, and keep in mind as well, the Colts defense hasn't been all that bad last three
04:33weeks.
04:34They give up 23 to Houston.
04:35They basically contain them, force them to work down the field 17 and 10.
04:40Over the last three weeks, they're slowly coming into form.
04:43That's why I like the Colts with the point.
04:44Yeah, I think the Colts will be able to stay close and also bringing back, this is the
04:47perfect game.
04:48If you're going to make a substitution, a quarterback going up against Flores' defense,
04:51the entire field will be open.
04:52Just a matter of can Flacco be accurate.
04:54If he is, there's a legitimate chance they can knock off the Minnesota Vikings who reeling
04:57a little bit and need to get back on their feet.

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