• 2 days ago
Presiden Prabowo Subianto menyatakan, salah satu fokus dalam pemerintahannya yakni swasembada energi, termasuk pengembangan energi baru terbarukan (EBT) yang lebih ramah lingkungan. Prabowo mengatakan, pengembangan energi terbarukan di Indonesia memanfaatkan sumber energi melimpah yang dimiliki oleh Indonesia.

Untuk mendukung pengembangan energi terbarukan di Indonesia, sinergi antar kementerian seperti Kementerian ESDM, Kementerian Investasi dan Hilirisasi, Kementerian BUMN, Bappenas dan Kementerian Luar Negeri diperlukan, untuk mendorong harmonisasi kebijakan yang akan berkontribusi terhadap target pertumbuhan ekonomi, yang diproyeksikan sebesar 8% oleh Pemerintahan Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka.

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00:00Indonesia will be able to achieve the atmosphere of energy because it will be rich in abundant energy sources, including renewable energy.
00:23Therefore, the government needs to expand cooperation with other countries and create harmonization in regulation and policy.
00:32Ladies and gentlemen, we also need the atmosphere of energy.
00:41In times of tension, in times of war, we need to be prepared for the worst.
00:58Other countries need to think about their own interests.
01:05If something happens that we don't want, it will be difficult for us to get energy sources from other countries.
01:15Therefore, we need the atmosphere of energy and we are able to do so.
01:27President Prabowo announced his inauguration as President of the Republic of Indonesia on October 20, 2024.
01:38President Prabowo said Indonesia is rich in natural resources that can be used as energy sources, including renewable energy sources such as water and global warming.
01:50In order for the development of renewable energy, the Institute for Essential Savings Reform estimates that President Prabowo must strengthen international cooperation, especially South-South cooperation.
02:02Cooperation must be done to accelerate energy transition and mobilize investment and funding to achieve net zero emissions by 2060 or sooner.
02:15Director-Executive of the Institute for Essential Savings Reform, Fabi Tumiwa, said that the government must also take into account policy and regulation,
02:24as well as the licensing process that makes EBT investment independent of banks.
02:30Various sources, IDX Channel.
02:32Thank you for your time.
03:02What do you think about the development of renewable energy in the last 10 years?
03:09If we look at the last 10 years, I started when Mr. Jokowi became President for the first time.
03:18Indonesia's condition at that time was experiencing an energy crisis.
03:22We see a lot of power outages, BBMs have to queue.
03:25At the end of Mr. SBY's government, the National Energy Policy was issued.
03:35It is the derivative of the Energy Law.
03:40The National Energy Policy has a target for renewable energy, 23% renewable energy by 2025.
03:47This is in line with Mr. Jokowi's period.
03:50Then, the implementation of the policy is poured into the National Energy Policy, Fairtrade 22 2017.
04:02Where in the Fairtrade agreement, it is actually outlined the steps that will be taken by the government,
04:10policies that will be taken, and strategies that must be pushed by various ministries
04:23involved in the development of renewable energy to achieve that target.
04:27If we look at this until the end of 2023, the target of renewable energy is still far.
04:37If the target is 23% in 2025, our renewable energy will only reach 13%.
04:47So it's still far.
04:49If we look at the trajectory made by the National Energy Agency,
04:56by the end of 2023, we should be able to reach 18.5%.
05:03Then, by the end of 2024, it has reached 21%.
05:08And by 2025, it will reach 23%.
05:12If we look at the end of 2024, it will be difficult to reach that trajectory.
05:22So, we are left with something extraordinary.
05:26In addition, if we look at the investment in renewable energy,
05:35especially in the last five years, it has never reached the target set by the government itself.
05:43So, the Ministry of Education has a target of investment in renewable energy every year.
05:48In the last five years, 2019-2024,
05:54based on the growth up to the first quarter of this year,
06:02it has never been able to reach the target.
06:04This is also proven by the BPK audit report.
06:10So, BPK audits the work of PT PLN Persiro,
06:17and according to BPK, from RKAP,
06:21the budget and program work plan,
06:26every year in the period of 2021-2023,
06:32only 60% of the budget needs are achieved.
06:38So, if we can see, this may be able to explain.
06:44Even if from the total investment needs,
06:48which is poured into the program to create electricity.
06:53This is just electricity.
06:55In 2021-2030, according to BPK, only 28% of the target investment was achieved.
07:00So, there is an extraordinary deficit.
07:03Okay. Interesting.
07:04Just now, President Prabowo, in his statement,
07:08as stated in the package,
07:10the government will target renewable energy.
07:14What is the target of this renewable energy?
07:17What if it is transmitted to the continuation of renewable energy development nationally?
07:23Mr. Fabi.
07:25Well, I see the words, renewable energy,
07:30today it is not clear what the purpose is.
07:35Okay.
07:37So, this renewable energy is not a new thing.
07:41If we look, even all presidents talk about renewable energy.
07:47Energy independence, some say energy independence,
07:49then there is renewable energy.
07:51Of course, these two things have different meanings.
07:54But if we look at what was said,
07:56what was actually said by Mr. Prabowo,
08:00it is also not a new thing.
08:02Actually, when the campaign was in the 2019 presidential period,
08:06he also said that.
08:08Well, today it is said again, and I think this is important,
08:12to achieve, if I say self-sufficiency,
08:17energy.
08:19It was said earlier that if all countries do not have energy,
08:22it will not grow.
08:23If our economy needs a sufficient energy supply to grow,
08:30especially with the target of 8% economic growth,
08:36then, of course, the energy needs will also increase.
08:41But if I look at what has been said all this time,
08:45I haven't really found what is meant by that energy source.
08:50At least, what is the target that needs to be achieved?
08:54This is what we are talking about, for example,
08:57how long do we want to achieve the energy source?
09:02So, the operational definition is still lacking,
09:07and the targets that need to be achieved are still lacking.
09:11If we look at today, if I refer to the statement of the Minister of Energy,
09:16Mr. Bahril, and also the Deputy Minister of Energy who was just appointed yesterday,
09:18they said two things.
09:21The first is to increase oil production.
09:24The second is to increase the supply of fossil fuels or biofuels.
09:29And this has actually been
09:34tried in the era of President Jokowi.
09:38And it is actually in our national energy policy.
09:43But actually, again, what is the target that needs to be achieved?
09:49For example, if I catch the energy source that was delivered today
09:54is very related to or very limited in the environment,
09:59reducing the import of fossil fuels.
10:03Because indeed, 60% of our oil needs are imported.
10:06So, if we look at what is being pushed is the increase in oil production,
10:10then the increase in fossil fuels.
10:14Actually, the goal is to reduce the import of oil.
10:20But if we want to achieve a bridge,
10:25let's say all our oil needs can be met.
10:29This is what should be clear, actually,
10:33the strategy and the steps.
10:35And in my opinion, two things that were conveyed by the Minister of Energy and Deputy Minister of Energy
10:40have not yet been able to meet the goal for the energy supply,
10:45at least in the next five years.
10:48Okay. So, what kind of domestic workers
10:51may have inherited from the previous government
10:54to President Prabowo for the development of renewable energy?
10:58And then, what kind of renewable energy sources
11:01are included in all priorities to continue to develop?
11:04We will discuss later in the next segment.
11:06Mr. Fabi, we will leave you for a moment.
11:07And Mr. Mirsa, we will be right back after the break.
11:37As you can see on your television screen,
11:40we will watch together what the movement was like in 2019 until 2023.
11:46This is for Migas, Minerba, and also EBT.
11:50Okay, that's it. The movement of EBT tends to stagnate like that.
11:54It was 1.7 billion US dollars in 2019,
11:58then in 2020, 1.4 billion US dollars,
12:02in 2021, 1.6 billion US dollars,
12:04then this is the same as in 2022,
12:08and in 2023, there was a slight decrease of 1.5 billion US dollars.
12:15Next, the target and implementation of EBT in Indonesia.
12:18Let's see what the percentage is like.
12:20Data from 2019 to 2023.
12:25Okay, that's it. For the target and implementation, what is it like?
12:30For the target in 2019, it was 12.2 percent.
12:36In 2020, it was 13.4 percent.
12:39Next, it was 14.5 percent, 15.7 percent, and 17.9 percent in 2023.
12:45But again, in terms of implementation,
12:48no one has reached the target for the introduction of renewable energy in Indonesia.
12:54Let's continue our discussion with Mr. Fabi Tumiyah,
12:56who is the Executive Director of IASR.
13:00Mr. Fabi, let's talk about some of the data that have been mentioned,
13:04the investment of MIGAS, Minerba, then renewable energy,
13:08and also the implementation in Indonesia,
13:11no one has reached the target yet.
13:13So, where is the bottleneck?
13:16What kind of PR can be challenged in the current new government?
13:20What kind of PR can be challenged in the current new government?
13:23If we look at what the PR is,
13:27I see there are at least three big ones.
13:31First, we know that at the end of President Jokowi's government yesterday,
13:38there are a number of regulations and policies that have not been completed.
13:44For example, we see that there is a plan for RUU,
13:47New Energy, Renewable Energy,
13:50which has reached the end, but then it is not finished yet.
13:55And this will be continued again, hopefully in the next project.
13:58But this is also because this is a DPR initiative,
14:01so it requires input from the government.
14:04Now, where is the direction?
14:06Is it still the same?
14:08Because the minister has changed, the president has changed,
14:11it must be looked at.
14:12Because earlier, the law should have been able to support the achievement of the RPJMN.
14:23The target of our RPJMN in Indonesia was 2045,
14:26and also in the short term, to achieve Asta Cita.
14:28This is the first.
14:30The second is also in terms of regulation,
14:32the abolition of the national energy policy,
14:35which is already at the level of the PP,
14:39which is just waiting for the president's decision.
14:40We also have to look at this.
14:42It is clearly on the table of Mr. Prabowo now.
14:45But other than that, if we look at the development of renewable energy,
14:50there are quite basic problems.
14:54The basic problem is what I mentioned earlier.
14:59We have a lot of potential, but there are a lot of projects,
15:04the obstacle is in funding.
15:07Projects are not bankable.
15:11If we talk about why the target of investment does not happen,
15:14because the funding project is small.
15:18Why is the funding project small?
15:20That's because the mining process done by the PLN is not regular,
15:26unpredictable, even if there is a mine, the interest is not much.
15:31We see this from time to time.
15:33It means that if I catch it, there is a question of bankability.
15:39So the private sector is not interested to enter to finance those projects.
15:48If it's not interesting, then we actually have to see
15:52whether the economic project is interesting or not.
15:55If it's not interesting, because to determine the economic project
15:59is also determined by policy and regulation.
16:01In my opinion, this is the work that must be done
16:07to improve the investment claim of renewable energy.
16:11There are a lot of things that must be done,
16:14starting from the perfection of regulation,
16:17re-evaluation of the policy of the price of renewable energy,
16:20then the process of management and monitoring
16:23the development and infrastructure of renewable energy in the PLN,
16:27until we actually have to see the structure of our electricity power.
16:33Is the current structure, which is a vertical integrated monopoly,
16:38still relevant or not?
16:40For example, I want to raise,
16:43one of the things that made RUU-EBET failed in Sakan in the DPR yesterday,
16:48the previous period, is the determination of power winning.
16:52Where it was proposed, but then the PLN did not agree with the power winning.
16:58Of course, the PLN has its own reasons,
17:00but many stakeholders, including the private sector,
17:05that this power winning can open opportunities for the development of renewable energy
17:10to be used specifically in the industry
17:15without having to rely on the PLN as an off-taker.
17:18Well, things like this are related to our structure today.
17:23Well, that's what I think, some of the last paradigm that I think,
17:29today when we talk about renewable energy,
17:35it is very closely related to the steps or strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
17:41How?
17:43We already have a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
17:48And if we look at it, actually,
17:51one of the strategies that was pushed or agreed on globally,
17:58is to increase renewable energy emissions.
18:01For example, in COP28 yesterday in the United Arab Emirates,
18:06there was a target for tripling,
18:08increasing the capacity of renewable energy in 2030,
18:14and doubling, or tripling energy efficiency in 2030.
18:21Now, this has consequences for Indonesia.
18:25It means that in the next five years,
18:27we have to add renewable energy,
18:29if in our calculations, it reaches at least 70 giga,
18:3370 to 100 giga must be built.
18:35Interesting.
18:37If we really need to add,
18:39then the need for renewable energy is also quite large,
18:42but who will do the funding?
18:45If it is from the policy side,
18:47and the sector of electrification in the United Arab Emirates
18:50has not yet become a sector that is quite sexy for investors,
18:54because the policies that may not be enough to provide,
18:58or at least there is a sweetener there, Mr. Fabi.
19:02Yes, if we talk about funding,
19:07of course the first source is the source in the country.
19:11Who does the funding?
19:13LN, other BUMNs,
19:16because there are also a lot of BUMNs that enter renewable energy.
19:19Pertamina, for example, it develops global warming,
19:21and also other renewable energies.
19:24So, in the country, the source of funding is important.
19:28The second, of course,
19:30in that sense, the BUMN,
19:33the second is from the private sector,
19:35both domestic and foreign private sector.
19:38If we look at the RUPTL,
19:40RUPTL PLN 2021-2030,
19:43the financing for investment
19:46written in the RUPTL
19:48is 60-65% from the private sector,
19:5030-35% from the PLN,
19:53which means the private sector is outside the PLN.
19:54What does it mean?
19:57It means if we want the private sector to enter,
20:02or non-PLN, then non-PLN enters,
20:05we have to make the renewable energy project
20:10attractive as the purpose of the investment.
20:13This is what we have to see.
20:15Then, if we want to push the PLN
20:18or other BUMNs to fund,
20:21especially if the RUPTL means PLN,
20:2230-35% earlier,
20:25we have to see if there is a capacity and ability of the PLN
20:29to issue that much funding.
20:32If we look at today,
20:34every year, the PLN's ability to provide equity
20:37is between 2-3 billion dollars.
20:40It's lower than the actual need.
20:43But the PLN also,
20:45because the debt is quite large,
20:49the debt service equity, the DSCR,
20:53is quite high,
20:56so the PLN's ability to lend money is also limited.
21:01If the condition is like this, in my opinion,
21:04the government has to take action.
21:06How do we take action in this condition?
21:09I recommend there are three steps.
21:12There are three interventions by the government.
21:15The first is to strengthen the PLN's financial ability.
21:20How?
21:22The government has to adjust the interest rate,
21:26where the PLN's margin will be increased,
21:31as normal for public utility.
21:34For public utility, the rate of return is usually around 10%.
21:39PLN is below that.
21:41So, 10-12% if you want to increase it.
21:42But the consequence is that the interest rate will increase.
21:45Or the second,
21:47every year, the government provides PNM.
21:50Okay.
21:52State capital, for example, to strengthen the PLN's equity.
21:55Meanwhile, if we want to increase private investment,
22:00the choice is to make improvements.
22:04Pricing, but in my opinion,
22:07there must be incentives for private investment.
22:12So that they can meet their return target.
22:18Right?
22:20We can see now that the interest rate is high.
22:23So, the previous calculations are no longer valid.
22:27The risk is increasing.
22:30Because there are geopolitical factors,
22:33there are economic factors.
22:35Indonesia's economy is also weakening today.
22:37So, it affects the risk perception.
22:39So, it affects the growth of the population.
22:42This is the hypothesis.
22:44Lowered by the government with various incentives
22:46or instruments to mitigate the risk.
22:48So, there are still a lot of housework that needs to be done.
22:52And hopefully, this will be the attention of the President's assistants
22:56to make sure that the problems in the U.S. electric sector
23:00can be solved immediately with various policies.
23:04Then, the incentives are given.
23:05How to create this sector is also quite sexy
23:10for investors who will invest their money,
23:13especially in the development of renewable energy in Indonesia.
23:16Mr. Fabi, thank you very much for the time, sharing,
23:19and also the analysis that you have given to the audience today.
23:23Congratulations on continuing your activities again.
23:25Good health, Mr. Fabi. Thank you.
23:30All right, Mr. Mirsa, it's been an hour.
23:32I accompanied you in Market Review
23:33and continue to share your information on IDX Channel,
23:37Your Trustworthy and Comprehensive Investment Reference.
23:40Because the business of the future must move forward.
23:42I am an stock investor.
23:44I am Prasetyo Wibowo,
23:46along with all the staff who are on duty.
23:49Thank you. See you.

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