"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di 2nd Session Closing, Rabu (30/10/2024) dengan tema Saham BMRI Anjlok di Tengah Ekspektasi Kinerja Kuartal III-2024."
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for still joining us and in this segment, we will review how the trade is going throughout the day,
00:11the continuation of the trading of the Samkabungan stock market continues to happen and the position is currently traded at a level of 7,500.
00:21And we will remind you that you can still participate in our interactive WhatsApp at 08.12.8788.7723, as shown on the television screen and later.
00:31And now we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Filip Jermih, Financial Educator and Technical Analyst at Sukorsekuritas.
00:38We will go straight to Mr. Filip, good afternoon, how are you, sir?
00:42Good afternoon, how are you, Mr. David? How are you for Mr. David and the entire MyDX Channel team?
00:46Good afternoon, Mr. Filip. Today, the bad news comes from the Samkabungan stock market,
00:52even though in the 30 minutes of the closing period or a few minutes of the closing period, the weakness is more limited.
00:59But overall, the Samkabungan stock market today is dominant, moving at a level of 7,500.
01:06This means that there is a backward position compared to the previous trade.
01:11The Samkabungan stock market in the last few minutes was pulled back to the level of 7,600.
01:15What is your analysis, Mr. Filip?
01:18Yes, if we look at the Composite, if we look at the SG, if we look at the gap down,
01:25as soon as it opens, it immediately gaps down, where it opens at 7,558,
01:30whereas the previous close was at 7,600, so the gap down jumps quite significantly too.
01:36However, it is necessary to note that the area level support is around the level of 7,500.
01:42And today, the low is at 7,520, indicating that because at 7,520, we see it bounces back a little.
01:55The ISG bounces back a little, so if we look at it, it indicates that there is actually a buying area.
02:03Because the close is at 7,566, even though the close is at 7,566, in my opinion, this will be the bottom for the ISG.
02:12Moreover, if we look at it, the cause is indeed one of the big banks,
02:16where the net forensic from the big banks, especially yesterday, was quite large.
02:20We also see that it continues today, but in my opinion, from some big banks,
02:26there are already some that are in the support level area,
02:28so maybe today can hopefully be the last bottom before the ISG can start rebounding again, like that.
02:35Alright, Mr. Filip, Sam Sam, the big cap bank has released their work.
02:40The latest this afternoon, Rabu, BMRI has just released the work.
02:45The position of the ISG has grown by 7.56% this year.
02:50The position of the ISG is at 42 trillion rupiah.
02:55This morning, there was BBRI, previously there was BBNI, and then also the first one, there was the release of BBCA.
03:01If summarized as a whole, Mr. Filip, the weakness of Sam Sam Banking in the last few times,
03:08what is the relationship with their net profit?
03:11Is it really not in line with expectations or not in line with consensus?
03:18Yes, in my opinion, it is indeed not in line with expectations,
03:21because banking in general, the sector will grow,
03:24especially since the flow rate has been lowered.
03:29So, in my opinion, the market also expects a more significant growth from the banking sector.
03:34And when it's only 7%, the market looks like it's under expectation.
03:39Under expectation and under market consensus,
03:42plus the most important thing is that maybe this is below foreign expectations,
03:46where we see the net forensic is still quite large,
03:49so it causes the banking sector to be corrected quite deeply today.
03:54Okay, but the good news, some of the big cap banks are actually going in the opposite direction today.
03:59Mr. Filip, one of them is BBRI, sir.
04:02Strengthened at 0.64%, 4730, the closing line, and earlier it was suppressed to 4630.
04:10And coincidentally, there have been several questions that have entered our interactive WhatsApp,
04:14asking about the BBRI stock.
04:17I will try to read the first one, I will try to check first.
04:21There is Mr. Aris Zaijas here, he doesn't mention where the location is.
04:27Why does the BBRI stock keep going down?
04:30Then the second one, asking about the BBRI stock, I will try to check.
04:35There is Mr. Victor from Malang.
04:37The BBRI stock has started to rebound, can it be recommended to go in?
04:42Please, Mr. Filip, your analysis for BBRI.
04:46Yes, BBRI today has a strength of 0.64%.
04:49In my opinion, this is a relatively small strength, because it opens the gap down.
04:54It also gaps down, similar to the market movement.
04:57After that, it did gap down below 4630.
05:024600 is the area level support.
05:05So it's normal, there is a buy pressure, there is a buying pressure.
05:08If for swindlers who want to buy BBRI, in my opinion, below the price.
05:13Around 4800, below the price, basically at number 47 or even can get at number 46.
05:19That's BBRI, very good buy, in my opinion.
05:22Buy and breakout at 4800, what is the opportunity like?
05:27If we look at the volume, there is already an increase in volume.
05:30We also see that there is already a buy pressure, earlier at the price of around 4600.
05:35It's quite a big chance for it to break out.
05:37And if it breaks out, it will go to the area level 4980 if the breakout is successful.
05:46With a fairly deep correction in the last month,
05:50the pattern of BBRI is still a short-term uptrend or has it changed, Mr. Filip?
05:56The short-term is still an uptrend.
05:59The short-term is still an uptrend.
06:01The minor trend, if we look at it specifically, is from mid-September.
06:08Which is a trend that is even smaller than the minor trend.
06:12Because the secondary trend is still quite an uptrend.
06:15Okay, from BBRI, we move on to other big cap banks.
06:19There is BBCA, sir.
06:20Today it is also under pressure, quite deep at 1.43%.
06:24And it is getting further away from the highest level ever achieved before.
06:28And coincidentally, there are also two questions that came in our interactive WhatsApp.
06:32The first one I will read, I will try to check the name, from Mr. Bambang Febriamito.
06:39Thank you for joining us.
06:41Asking about BBCA.
06:43Earlier this morning, the price suddenly dropped to 10,275.
06:47It is true, the lowest intraday today.
06:49Is it because of the large debt of the BBCA, which is the textile retail factory,
06:54which failed to pay the debt to the BBCA bank, so it affected the price of the BBCA.
06:59This is related to the street tech, sir.
07:01Then the second one, also asking about BBCA.
07:05I will try to check again.
07:06Mr. Rasha from Jakarta, thank you for joining us.
07:09I want to ask about BBCA.
07:11Seen from the price drop, if you want to enter, what level is it?
07:15And what is the future movement like?
07:17Please, Mr. Filip.
07:19Yes, of course this is very influential.
07:22If we look at the interest of the street tech debt, it's about 28 banks.
07:26BBCA is one of the largest, at 1.1 trillion.
07:30But fortunately, we pay attention, actually, in terms of earnings and revenue, it is still above the estimate.
07:36Although only above, usually BBCA exceeds the consensus quite far.
07:43Usually, it exceeds the earnings, maybe it can be above the expectation, more than 1%.
07:48Now, if we look at it, in terms of earnings and revenue, it is not too much,
07:54plus the debt of the street tech earlier, which is actually 1.1 trillion,
07:58of course it will cause a little fear in the market.
08:02Now, this is normal, the correction.
08:04If we look at the correction area, of course this will affect the street tech news earlier.
08:09However, because the news has come out,
08:11in my opinion, this is precisely the time and opportunity for us to accumulate.
08:15The accumulation position, in my opinion, is at 10,200.
08:19Now, at 10,350, the low is at 10,275,
08:25where the low is the open price,
08:27indicating that there is already a buying pressure below the price of 10,300.
08:31Which means, if you want to average or buy,
08:34before BBCA returns to the all-time high level, in my opinion, this is a pretty good momentum.
08:38The latest developments, the government seems to be involved in helping the street tech.
08:45This also gives fresh air, it's okay.
08:49At least, there is no concern from investors about this condition.
08:55Yes, in my opinion, of course there will be a little relief in the market,
08:59but what needs to be noted is whether the use of funds is used to pay off the debt.
09:07Now, if you look at it, in my opinion, the market has taken into account the fear.
09:11So, in my opinion, the sentiment that the government is helping the street tech,
09:15in my opinion, it is more in the direction so that there are not too many employees in the PHK,
09:19if the street tech is left bankrupt.
09:22So, in my opinion, is there any relevance or relief in the market?
09:27Maybe a little, but not too big, in my opinion.
09:31Okay, from BBCA, we move for a moment to BMRI, Mr. Filip.
09:35As we said earlier, it has released the growth rate of 7.56%.
09:41Today, it is more tense.
09:43The note is from a technical point of view, BMRI today had a weakness of more than 3%.
09:49However, after the closure of the second session, the weakness is more limited.
09:54It looks like there is a resistance.
09:55The jump is also quite significant, from 6,500 intraday today,
10:00until it was closed at 6,750 intraday, and earlier it was up to 6,775 intraday.
10:06What is your analysis for BMRI?
10:09BMRI has a support level at 6,550 intraday, and the low has been touched at 6,575 intraday.
10:15In my opinion, there is a potential that tomorrow the candle will rebound.
10:18Yes, there will be a technical rebound from BMRI.
10:20Moreover, I see that the volume of today's decline is not big.
10:24Yes, so that's why I said, yes, SG, the possibility of bottoming will be this week.
10:29Why? Because there are a lot of banks that I think are already in the support level area.
10:34Okay, analysis from some of my peers' pick-up banks,
10:37which today again became a burden for the mutual fund.
10:41In addition to the financial sector, Mr. Philip, the non-cyclical consumer sector
10:45today also became a burden for the mutual fund.
10:48There is a contribution from HMSP there, then there is also Unilever.
10:53I want to go to Unilever first, Mr. Philip.
10:56Today, it experienced a fairly deep correction again.
10:59The lowest intraday, at least in the last 10 years, was touched again.
11:03Then Unilever weakened when looking for their operating risk in the third quarter of 2024.
11:09Has the position fallen, sir?
11:14Yes, not yet, in my opinion.
11:17Maybe more to whether it has fallen too far, because it has fallen too far.
11:23Yes, in my opinion, has it fallen too far? Not yet.
11:26Because in my opinion, there are a lot of fears in the market for Unilever.
11:30We notice that with the release of the financial sector, the consumer sector is not so excellent in 2024.
11:36So what happens is that it's not just Unilever,
11:39some of the consumer emitters are not doing well in 2024.
11:44In addition, Unilever's earnings have consistently decreased.
11:49And thus, in my opinion, has it fallen too far? Not yet.
11:52Because the market is still there and the volume is also quite large technically.
11:58What are the support and resistance, sir?
12:00The recommendation is more towards the WNC too, or what?
12:04Okay, for Unilever itself, we have to pay attention to the support because it's been 10 years.
12:12From the 10 years of intraday, it has been the lowest.
12:15In my opinion, usually what happens is there will be rejection and rejection in whole numbers.
12:20Usually above 1900, above 1800, there will be rejection.
12:25But can it be ensured that there will be rejection in that area? Not yet.
12:29The most important thing if you want to attract entry in Unilever, in my opinion, is when it breaks out from 2400.
12:36Where it's still quite far and 2400 is the downtrend area of Unilever.
12:41So when it breaks out, the uptrend will be confirmed if it succeeds in closing above the 2400 area.
12:48Gudang Garam, sir, in short, Mr. Filip, today it's strong at 14,250.
12:53Earlier at 14,225 level, the intraday was the lowest in the last 10 years.
12:59Yes, the weakness of Gudang Garam, we also pay attention to it.
13:01It has broken out again from the level of support that was formed at 14,450.
13:06I don't recommend entry because Gudang Garam, we also see the earnings go down too.
13:11This is very worrying for investors, so my advice is to stay away first.
13:15Because the level of support will also be quite far for Gudang Garam, seeing the volume of today's decline too.
13:21Yes, today's closing of Gudang Garam at 14,250 decreased by 4.20%.
13:28And again, the decision to invest is still in the hands of Mimirsa and Investor Modal Indonesia.
13:34Where earlier there were some shares that became the focus of the Samkabungan family throughout today's trade.