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00:00and his money are soon elected. And that's an interesting question, interesting statement
00:06because it's something that you were talking about as well. It's about the money that they
00:09are able to raise and the fact that Donald Trump is being able to raise money. Well,
00:14actually, that's not quite true. Money is the mother's milk of politics, especially in America.
00:20And how did they get Biden to resign from the, you know, not to be re-run the office? Nancy Pelosi
00:27and, you know, hench people, if you will, to use a bad word, told them to stop contributing. And
00:33without the money, Biden knew he couldn't run. The game was over. The writing was on the wall.
00:37Kamala Harris came back, the Democratic donors came back, surge of poll. In fact, she's out
00:44keeping money than Donald Trump. She's raising far more. In the last three months,
00:48she's raised almost a billion dollars, which is the record amount for any U.S. presidential cycle
00:53ever. Billion dollars. Donald Trump, believe it or not, despite being a billionaire, is running
00:58behind that. And what has happened because of that, he has to go hat in hand to non-competitive
01:04states to try and raise money. He had a very angry meeting with his donors, Miriam Anderson,
01:09Stephen Williams, that they underappreciated, unloved, that they should contribute more to
01:14his campaign. So he's also not being able to buy the airtime for television commercials,
01:19which is so important. Online strategies, whole big meetings. So I think Kamala Harris,
01:25in terms of money at least, has done an outstanding job. Almost a billion dollar
01:29raise in three months. So but then doesn't that tell you that despite and look, we look at these
01:36predictions, if you can call it that, or where things are heading. But if this is really the
01:42clincher, the amount of money that one candidate is able to raise over the other, then the writing
01:47is on the wall. Well, Trump is fond of saying that if money was the only criteria, Hillary
01:52Clinton would have been president. And she had raised more money than Donald Trump but didn't
01:56become president. America is a very divided nation. And sometimes it's in a few counties,
02:01a few votes will determine the winner. For example, in the three states that Biden won in 2020,
02:07I think the difference in the total vote was less than 50,000 votes. There's an interesting story
02:12I'll share with you, Alex. In the 1960 election, there was a lot of talk in the press that Joe
02:20Kennedy, John Kennedy's father, was buying the election out for his son. So to finally quell
02:28the queries, John Kennedy announced a press conference. And while he was talking to reporters,
02:33someone came with a telegram to him. He opened the telegram and said, oh, this is from my father.
02:38He says, Jack, I'll buy you enough votes to win the election, but not for a landslide.
02:43And that put that controversy to rest at that time. So, it is quite important how the last few
02:51weeks of the election shape up, what the so-called October surprise that everyone is waiting for,
02:56how that happens. But that's what makes this election so fascinating.
03:00Also, what makes it fascinating is the candidates themselves and what they're doing and what they're
03:05saying in the run-up to this election. But it's been said by Stalin, apparently, that people who
03:12cast the votes don't decide an election. The people who count the votes do. And seemingly,
03:17Trump has said the same thing. What is he thinking? It's Trump 101, basically to any time something
03:23goes against him, that the establishment is against him, the deep state is against him.
03:30Trump is such a maverick candidate who has broken the mold in so many respects.
03:35In 2016, when Trump was running, he actually made a press statement saying that my base is so strong
03:42that if I went on Fifth Avenue and shot a few people, I would still get all their votes.
03:46And that seemed the most laughable thing possible. And it is actually true. His base has stayed with
03:51him no matter what has happened, no matter what policies happened, that base has stayed with him.
03:56He also said McCain is not a war hero. And if there's any certified war hero in America,
04:01it is John McCain, ancestor of three great admirals in American history. And that didn't
04:07affect him. So, Trump is his own maverick, you know, goes into his own head. And I think he
04:13breaks the rules of politics. And because he has the base, that strong support of 45, 47, 48%
04:19of the voters, I think he gets away with impunity. So, this election like, not like many others,
04:27is always at the margins. If you can just push a few people in a particular racial profile or
04:32a particular soccer moms or some other demographic, you probably win the election. But it's almost
04:39like a trench warfare, each man on his own, each woman on his own. So, you spoke about this briefly
04:45in the last conversation about the electoral college and the popular vote. And the reason
04:51I'm asking about this right now is what you've just mentioned. Any one cohort of individuals
04:56could sway the election. It's that close, right? Where through the campaigning, you've had Kamala
05:02Harris go to certain, make certain statements, you know, position herself in a certain way
05:08in order to sway certain demographics. Do you think that that will be the clincher?
05:11It is. And the interesting part is, Trump is addressing women's conference, trying to reach
05:18out to women voters. Kamala Harris is coming, God forbid, on Fox News, which is the ultra ring,
05:24ultra right-wing network. She's coming to speak there. They're just trying to get those marginal
05:28voters who would be watching Fox News or a woman who would be against Trump, but maybe willing to
05:34listen to them. The thing that I find interesting is that there's a huge gender gap in America, Alex.
05:40Among all women voters, Kamala Harris is ahead by 15 points. But among all male voters,
05:47Trump is ahead by 15 points. So, almost a 30-point gender gap in America. Women favor Kamala Harris,
05:54men favor Trump. But what is astonishing to me about Kamala Harris's position, this is a black
06:01woman of black and South Asian descent. She's not carrying the black vote as handily as Biden
06:08carried it or as handily as, say, Clinton or Obama carried it. So, she's, particularly among black
06:14men, she's winning, but she needs to carry 80-85% of the vote. And she probably has 65-70% of the
06:21vote. And that could perhaps make the difference. So, there's a big all-out push to get the black
06:27vote home. Obama going and talking to that constituency as only Obama can, saying,
06:32please don't stay at home and please don't think that you don't want to vote for Kamala Harris,
06:36directly addressing black men. So, it's a very, very fascinating group that 10,000-20,000 votes
06:43in a particular county could sway the entire election. Last question on this, and we've got
06:48a conversation lined up with Professor Larry Sabato right up next. He's truly an expert.
06:53And from my perspective, okay, I'm curious about this. In our elections here, we talk about voter
06:59turnout being an issue. Is that at all something that worries, you know, political strategists
07:05and watchers of the US election? See, Lincoln said it best. It's followed. The key to winning
07:11an election is get out the vote. Yeah. Right? And whoever gets out the vote more. In fact,
07:18if it's a heavier turnout, that tends to favor Democrats as opposed to Republicans. And unlike
07:23in India, for example, where the elite don't vote in India, but the poor line up for all hours and
07:28you can see long lines of them voting. In America, it's the other way around. The elite go out and
07:32vote. They vote early. They vote regularly. And the working men don't vote. So, if the working
07:38men who typically support the Democrats turn out, vote in larger numbers, for instance, early voting
07:44in Georgia, which is a swing state again, points out to a democratic victory because early vote
07:51tends to help the Democrats who tend to vote earlier than the Republicans. So, it would be
07:56who gets the vote base out. You ring the phone, knock the doorbell, make sure your voters go to
08:02the polls and vote. Go old school. Old school. And I think the person who has advantage in the
08:06ground game right now is Kamala Harris. So, if she managed to bring home the vote, she may be
08:11the next 47th president of America. And now it's time to get an expert view on the US election.
08:17The communist leader of China, not a capitalist, but a communist Mao Zedong famously said,
08:23politics is war without bloodshed. War is politics, but with bloodshed. Politics in the US,
08:30of course, has become a blood sport. To help us understand this ongoing gladiator fight
08:36for the position of leader of the free world, I'm joined by the founder and director of the
08:42Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, Larry Sabato. Larry, welcome to our show.
08:48Thank you so much.
08:50Larry, let me start you off with a hypothetical question.
08:54If it was still Biden versus Trump, would Trump be picking his cabinet right now?
09:00Probably. I suspect he would already have picked it. President Biden was fading rather quickly,
09:08and it was obvious that it was more a matter of Democrats being unenthusiastic,
09:14whereas Republicans believed they had the election wrapped up. Well, a funny thing
09:19happened and the Democrats were able to get it together and ask Biden to leave, and he did.
09:25And it turns out his vice president's a good candidate. She's done well so far.
09:30Yeah, I mean, as far back as I can remember, only Johnson voluntarily quitting the White House
09:35in 1968, as you recall. But let me ask you a question.
09:40Are we flipping the coin? Is now Trump too old to be president? Is that the fear?
09:47Well, it's interesting, isn't it? Because when Trump was running against Biden,
09:52Trump was the junior partner. He looked hale and hearty. He was four years younger and it
09:58really did help him. The problem now is he is actually going to be the oldest person ever
10:06elected president, should he win November 5th. And he will be the oldest president ever at the
10:13end of that four year term. So Biden's record will be shattered by the next president. He
10:19has come across as, if not suffering from dementia, then at least not on his game.
10:27Let's put it that way. He's done some odd things in and out of his usual lectures at rallies.
10:35A lot of word salads, if I could say that. But let me ask you this question.
10:39There's a very famous humorist that you're familiar with, Groucho Marx.
10:42He said that all people are created equal except Republicans and Democrats.
10:48So what is this wanted base that we keep hearing about of Donald Trump,
10:52the Republican base, the base, the base? How important and how significant is the base
10:57for Republicans? Well, that base is now the Republican Party. Most of the non-Trump Republicans
11:05have been driven out of the party one way or another. And some of them aren't participating
11:10at all. Others are reluctantly voting for Trump because that's what they've always done. They
11:15voted for the Republican nominee. But this is having long term consequences for the party.
11:21Not that Trump cares. I think we all have figured Donald Trump out, for better or worse. Donald
11:26Trump is for Donald Trump. And he's perfectly happy with the Republican Party as it's now
11:33constituted. Whether it will produce any more victories in the future is another question
11:38entirely. Larry, in three elections, in two elections in the past, Trump has never won
11:44the popular vote. Does the base mean that he gets a minimum but there's also a hard glass ceiling to
11:51his vote percentage? Yes, that's a good way to put it. He has a ceiling, I think, of 47. Maybe
12:00you could stretch it to 48. But I don't see him ever getting over 50 percent. I just don't think
12:06it's possible because he has too many built in opponents. And he reinforces those opponents
12:12almost every time he gives a rally. He says something outrageous or 10 things that are
12:18outrageous. However, his base will turn out in large numbers. So the burden is placed on the
12:27shoulders of the Democrats. They have to get their base, which often finds excuses for not voting,
12:34to turn out at the same rate. If they do, they'll at least win the popular vote. The
12:39electoral college vote is something completely different these days. You know, that's an
12:44interesting point. And I think my viewers in India will not understand that though there's a
12:48direct election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the winner of the popular vote doesn't win
12:54the election. The winner of the electoral vote wins the election. What is the electoral vote?
12:59Can you just explain it to us, to ordinary viewer here? Yes, I won't go into too much detail except
13:06to say when the founders of the United States established the electoral college back in 1789,
13:13there was no popular vote. We didn't have elections, except through the electoral college.
13:19Now, who were they? They were the elites of each of the American states. And they didn't meet
13:26together, but they met in their respective state capitals. And they picked candidates that they
13:33felt were appropriate to the presidency and the vice presidency. I think it was called the smoke
13:38filled back rooms in the 1960s. Yes. And they well, they all smoked back in 1789. I think by
13:45the 1960s, some were catching on that smoking was bad for you. But nonetheless, it's not a system
13:52that works very well. But it will stay in place because in America, we're too divided to change
13:58anything. Seriously, we cannot pass a constitutional amendment to celebrate mothers. So you have a
14:05famous crystal ball, Larry, you predicted a lot of the previous elections. Gaze into your crystal
14:11ball. Tell us what's happening. Who's ahead right now? This is extremely close. And I don't use that
14:19as a cover. I rarely say that this is too close to call. But we've got three weeks to go. And
14:26regardless of our systems, every country knows the final three weeks of an election campaign
14:33usually determines the election result to a great degree. So I'm expecting what we call in the
14:39states October surprises what they are. Well, it wouldn't be surprises if we knew in advance.
14:45But usually something or some things happen domestically or internationally
14:50that push a point or two in one direction or another. And that's the election.
14:56And potentially, you know, Harold Wilson said that a week is a long time in politics and we're
15:03three weeks away. Are you looking at the Middle East? Are you looking at some domestic surprises?
15:09What would be the kind of surprise? I know it's a surprise, but what would you bet on?
15:15Well, internationally, we're sure to have surprises in the Middle East. And we need to remember,
15:21the guy who is stirring the Middle East pot to a greater degree than anybody else is Benjamin
15:26Netanyahu and Prime Minister Netanyahu very clearly and openly wants Donald Trump to win.
15:36So I would expect him to do something that would put the Biden-Harris administration in a bad light
15:43and help Donald Trump. I can't tell you precisely what that is. It's a cookie in Netanyahu's mind.
15:50Geopolitics obviously is important. But let's talk about more politics. The vice presidency
15:56is always said to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.
16:00Let's talk about the two vice presidential candidates. Let's talk about Tim Walz first.
16:05I mean, to me, looking, studying U.S. history,
16:08Walz strikes me as the Sarah Palin of 2008. Is that too harsh an assessment?
16:14Oh, I wouldn't call him Sarah Palin. Sarah Palin's in a class by herself and probably
16:19always will be in terms of being unprepared for the national role, much less being vice president.
16:25And sure enough, she's faded from the scene entirely because she couldn't sustain her
16:31popularity to the extent that she had it. But I would say Walz was a weak choice. Turns out,
16:39he wasn't as weak as the Republican choice. Both of these candidates picked poorly.
16:45Obviously, obviously, to everybody in politics here, Kamala Harris should have picked the
16:50governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro. She wouldn't have to worry about Pennsylvania now.
16:56Duh, exactly. Duh, duh, duh. I agree with you. I mean, they didn't get along. They didn't get
17:01along in that interview. He came on too strong. That's what I've been told by one of the
17:07people who knew. But Larry, I mean, would you trust Coach Walz? He's a great guy. He's a good
17:15governor, perhaps, good football coach. But would you trust him in the nuclear keys?
17:22Yes, because I don't think he'd use them. And to me, that's primary criterion. You don't want
17:29somebody in there who would actually use them, which is what people worry about with Trump,
17:34though he didn't in his first four years. I don't know why that would change, because after all,
17:39he has a big family. Some of those family members wouldn't survive either. I mean,
17:43it comes down, as I said, to Donald Trump. What benefits Donald Trump?
17:49Final question, Larry. November 5th is D-Day. Trump is still litigating 2020.
17:58Will he accept a defeat?
18:00Oh, God, no. You know the answer to that. It is impossible for him to lose. And therefore,
18:07if the vote tally shows that he has lost, clearly somebody cheated. That's the way it is in his
18:14mind. We all laugh at it. But we need to remember, tens of millions of Americans
18:21hang on his every word. And that is the potential for violence after the election.
18:27So they hang on to his every word, and his words have been, I'm going to introduce tariffs,
18:33I'm going to get out of NATO, I'm not going to support Taiwan against China.
18:38Does that worry you as an American citizen?
18:41Of course. Of course. And it depends on what happens with Congress. If Democrats somehow
18:46manage to have one of the two houses of Congress, they can stop most of these things. But listen,
18:53Trump won't even necessarily listen to Congress. And he's got the Supreme Court on his side. It's
18:58a Trump Supreme Court. So we're in a situation where in this particular case, Donald Trump
19:04is going to get a great deal of what he wants, in all probability.
19:09He will. Though, of course, in America, I realize you have to
19:12pass a bill through Congress, which is not necessarily easy. That's the check and balance
19:16in your system. You know, Larry, I'm fascinated by US politics. I'm going to throw a few names
19:22out to you. And I want you to comment on what you think about them. Two names I didn't share
19:28with you first. Kellyanne Conway. Well, I know Kellyanne. She's a friend.
19:33She's participated in a lot of my programs over the years. She is not necessarily agreeing with
19:41Trump on lots of issues. However… Or with George Conway.
19:46Yeah, well, George is the opposite. That's her, I guess, former husband. I know they're in divorce
19:51court. I don't know whether it's over yet. But George Conway is the leader of the anti-Trump
19:56bunch, not just Republicans, but also independents and Democrats. So it's an interesting
20:01former marriage. Liz Cheney.
20:05Well, I have a conflict of interest there. I hired Liz Cheney a year ago to be our professor
20:10of practice at the UVA Center for Politics. I think a great deal of her. She has guts.
20:17And so many people in public office in every country have no guts.
20:23Do you think she could be potentially a candidate for 2028 if Trump loses in 2024?
20:30Yes, but she couldn't be a candidate in the Republican Party because her Republican Party,
20:35the party of her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, is dead. It's gone. So she would
20:40either have to run as a Democrat, which would be difficult because she has conservative positions
20:45on a number of other issues that Democrats wouldn't like. And running as an independent
20:50in this country is always possible, but it's extremely difficult to pull off.
20:54Tucker Carlson.
20:57Well, again, I think I've taught one or two of his kids. They went here. He's participated in
21:02events at my home on Thomas Jefferson's lawn. He's a great person. He's a lot of fun. He's
21:09also now crazy. I have no idea where he's coming from or why he has done what he's done. He's lost
21:16his position on Fox, which was really the source of his power. So I wish him well. And I know he
21:23made tens of millions of dollars, maybe hundreds of millions. So he's set for life, but we're not
21:28going to be seeing as much of it. Trump and Tucker Carlson both seem to like
21:33Putin for whatever reason. The final name, I'll tell you, Gavin Newsom.
21:37Well, he has a future. His problem is that Kamala Harris has gotten out in front of him. She was
21:44senator from California. He's governor of California. He had hoped to be the nominee
21:49and might have run had they had an open process. But of course, it was too late for an open process.
21:55So I still expect him to run for president at some point. But I can't tell you when that is.
22:02You know, I always remember that, Larry, when 1962, when Nixon lost
22:07the race for governor of California, he said, you won't have a Nixon to kick around anymore.
22:13I don't know what Gavin Newsom, if he'll be there or not. But I clearly think he has a future
22:17because he's telegenic, big state, democratic loyalist, probably has a future. You know,
22:24the U.S. election is on November 5th on roughly three weeks. I can only quote Ralph Nader, who
22:30said, turn on to politics or politics will turn on you. Thanks. Bye.
22:36Thank you so much. That was fun. Thank you.
22:38All right. So there you go, Ramesh. Fascinating conversation,
22:41sitting on the sidelines and in studio with you. The excitement and the
22:48insight that he brings is so fascinating.
22:50Absolutely. He's one of those people who speaks on U.S. politics so
22:56authoritatively that it's always a pleasure to have him.
22:58Lots more coming up on NDTV Profit.