Analysis: Comparing China's Two Rounds of 'Joint Sword' Exercises
China on Monday conducted military exercises around Taiwan codenamed Joint Sword-2024B. How did they differ from the earlier round of Joint Sword exercises back in May? TaiwanPlus speaks to David Sacks of the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations.
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00:00David, I want to ask you, what's the biggest difference between Joint Sword A when we saw
00:04back in May and Joint Sword B that we just saw on Monday?
00:09So I think on the one hand, the one striking thing of Joint Sword B versus A is actually
00:15that the duration of Joint Sword B was quite short, only around 12 hours.
00:20And so I think that, you know, on the one hand, that's maybe less of a concern because
00:27you get into questions if it's a multi-day exercise about whether or not it's really
00:32a de facto blockade and whether it's going to interfere with international shipping in
00:37the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan's ability to import critical goods.
00:40What was more concerning about Joint Sword B versus A, though, was the involvement of
00:45the China Coast Guard.
00:46I mean, we all saw this photo that was tweeted out of the China Coast Guard literally encircling
00:52Taiwan.
00:53And, you know, that is consistent with Chinese actions over the last couple of years, which
00:58is to use its law enforcement or lawfare toolbook to essentially try to assert that this is
01:07a domestic law enforcement matter, that the Taiwan Strait is not international waters,
01:12it's an internal waterway, and that it controls the airspace and the seas around Taiwan.
01:20What do you think is the most likely scenario that China would use to take control of Taiwan?
01:25Is it a blockade or is it still the more traditional amphibious landing?
01:29I think that most observers believe that it's not a blockade and then China stops and doesn't
01:35do anything.
01:36I think that many believe that it's a blockade that rolls into these other elements like,
01:41you know, joint firepower strikes on Taiwan, softening up the island for an amphibious
01:47assault.
01:48I don't believe that Beijing is going to implement a blockade, sit back and wait until Taiwan
01:53buckles, because I think that one of the conclusions that it has drawn, especially after Russia's
01:59invasion of Ukraine, is that time is not on its side, that all things being equal, it
02:05wants this to happen before the United States can potentially intervene, before the United
02:10States can put together a coalition to levy sanctions and other measures against China.
02:15So, you know, I don't think it's an either or question anymore.
02:18I think it's a question of sequencing and timing of the various elements.