India- Canada Ties Under Strain: Impact On Students | NDTV Profit
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00:00Hello and welcome. You are watching The Big Story on NDTV Prophet. I am Vishwanath Nair.
00:12Well, the diplomatic road between India and Canada has escalated even further. The Canadian
00:17government has claimed that the Indian agents were directly involved in the killing of Hardeep
00:23Singh Nijjar. Nijjar was of course a pro-Khalistani separatist and was killed in British Columbia
00:29back in 2023. Canada has named Indian High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma as a person
00:34of interest in this murder investigation. India has refuted all these claims and have called the
00:39charges motivated and absurd. Both countries have expelled their top envoys and other diplomats,
00:46but this issue is larger than it seems. Recently, Canada put restrictions on international student
00:51permits. It also made the rules stricter for foreign workers. According to the Indian
00:56government's data, there are more than 4 lakh Indian students studying in Canada right now.
01:01So what happens to all of these students? How will things now fare between the two countries?
01:06That's our big story for today. In fact, the three big questions that we're asking,
01:11these include, of course, is the Canadian government attempting to corner India to
01:16score brownie points in an election year? Remember that election is coming up in Canada.
01:20The second question, of course, is how is this diplomatic tussle going to impact Indians who
01:26are living in Canada right now? And the third and final question is, will this move by the two
01:31countries affect trade between the two countries, India and Canada? That's primarily the three
01:37questions that we're looking to answer during this discussion. And today we have some guests
01:42with us who are going to be helping us understand some of the nuances in this entire discussion.
01:49I have with me Ambassador Prabhu Dayal, a former diplomat, and of course, Alok Bansal,
01:53Director at India Foundation. Welcome, gentlemen. I want to start with you, Ambassador Dayal.
01:58The question that I want to ask you is, when it comes to two countries which so far had
02:05cordial relationships, but except maybe over the last year and a half, has seen some amount of
02:10turmoil, I want to understand from you, how exactly does this move forward from a diplomatic point of
02:16view? Well, you know, first of all, let me state that the latest developments have heightened
02:24tensions in the India-Canada relationship. So there are some questions which I have been asking
02:31myself. Why has this crisis erupted in the first place? I think our government feels that the crisis
02:39has erupted because Justin Trudeau is indulging in vote bank politics. And you hinted that during
02:46your opening remarks. Trudeau has allowed a wide range of anti-India activities to be carried out
02:54by the Khalistan supporters. Now, let me mention that this vote bank politics arises from the fact
03:03that Justin Trudeau has been heading a minority government. The Canadian parliament currently has
03:11338 seats and Justin Trudeau's party has only 160 seats, while 170 are needed for having a majority.
03:22So he was in need of outside support. And this outside support he got from
03:30Jagmeet Singh Dhaliwal, whose party, the New Democratic Party, has 25 seats. Now, Jagmeet Singh
03:37Dhaliwal is an anti-India, pro-Khalistan activist, and he was making Trudeau dance to his tune.
03:45Now, a month back, Jagmeet Singh Dhaliwal withdrew support for Justin Trudeau. So it was thought that
03:52maybe now Trudeau's government will fall. But there was a no-confidence motion tabled by the
03:57Conservative Party in which Dhaliwal's party supported Trudeau. So while he has formally
04:03withdrawn support, he is continuing to back Trudeau. And as a result, Trudeau is obliged to him and is
04:10playing the Khalistan card, which is harmful for India's interests. You know, the second question,
04:16which naturally is very important, is what is the fallout on the ground? Now, I think the fallout
04:22on the ground is extremely dangerous for India's interests. Canada has become a hotbed for anti-India
04:30activities by extremist Sikhs. And these extremist Sikhs are openly calling for the breakup of India
04:38and the creation of Khalistan. I may mention that they have targeted the Indian High Commission in
04:43Ottawa, and they have put up posters calling for the assassination of Indian diplomats,
04:49including the Indian High Commissioner in Canada. So these extremist Sikhs are posing a danger
04:57to Indian interests. And in fact, they've also issued threats to the Hindu community in Canada.
05:02And India has taken up this matter repeatedly with Canada, but to no avail. You know,
05:08there have been continued Khalistani activities. I may mention that on 28th April this year,
05:15pro-Khalistan slogans were shouted at an event in Toronto,
05:20which was attended by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Last year in June, on 4th June,
05:27there was a radical Sikh parade in Brampton, which glorified the assassination of Indira Gandhi.
05:34And that Brampton demonstration had a tableau of Indira Gandhi with blood on her clothes and
05:40a poster that read revenge on attack for Shri Darbar Sahib. Trudeau's government has done nothing
05:46to check all this. He has in fact allowed anti-India activities to continue. And on the other
05:53hand, he has made baseless allegations against India, saying that Indian diplomats were involved
06:00in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar. And now, in fact, he has said that there were six
06:06Indian diplomats who are persons of consequence in this matter. So what Trudeau has been doing
06:12has been damaging India's interest. I'm afraid as long as he continues as prime minister,
06:17there will be no improvement in our relations with Canada. Hopefully, when the elections are held,
06:24he will be ousted. There will be a new government which will review policy towards India. But I'm
06:30afraid that till that happens, we should be prepared for a continued deterioration of our
06:37relations with Canada. Right. I want to bring in Alok Bansal, of course, from the India Foundation.
06:43Mr. Bansal, I wanted to get your view. As far as the India-Canada relationships are concerned,
06:50we've had a sort of cordial relationship in the past, except maybe in probably the recent past
06:59where things have become a little more volatile. As two friendly nations, two countries which are
07:09sort of very prominent in bilateral relationships, what does this kind of a diplomatic role
07:19lead to as far as two countries are concerned? Yeah, I'll try and answer all three questions
07:25that you have raised. Firstly, we need to understand why this spat, and as rightly brought
07:30out by Ambassador Prabhu Dayal, there is a domestic consideration, as he rightly pointed out,
07:36Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party's outside support has actually sustained Trudeau in
07:42government. And Jagmeet Singh, as you know, in the past had opposed Kamal Nath's visit to Canada
07:48when Kamal Nath was the Commerce Minister. So he has very strong ties with Khalistanis,
07:53which go back decades. Even in Trudeau's Liberal Party, there are policy makers with
07:59known Khalistani links. In fact, one of the MPs, former MPs of Trudeau's party,
08:04when he was a member of parliament, Ramesh Singha, had clearly said that many members
08:10of the Liberal Party had links with Khalistani terrorist organizations. And at that point of
08:15time also, rather than Trudeau or Liberal Party taking action against these elements,
08:21they had actually thrown Ramesh Singha out of the party and suspended him. So that has
08:27been the case. So they have actually been hobnobbing with the Khalistani terrorists
08:33for a very long time. Even to date, Emperor Kanishka is blowing up over Atlantic.
08:40The main perpetrators are walking free in Canada. They have been actually let go,
08:46giving them the benefit of doubt. Whereas in this particular case, they have concocted story
08:52and Indian diplomats are being termed as persons of interest. And more significantly, if one has
08:59to go by Canadian media, they say that the Indian diplomats have been expelled. And if that be the
09:06case, India has rightfully decided to expel the diplomats from Canadian mission here.
09:13Now, what is going to be the impact? The fact is that the diplomatic strength has come down
09:17drastically, especially in Canada's case here in Delhi, there was no high commissioner and the
09:22officiating high commissioner has been expelled. Most of the first secretaries have been expelled.
09:26So in that sort of a scenario, the process of visa, granting of visa, etc. is bound to slow down.
09:34So can it be rectified immediately? Not to my mind, because right now it's on the downward spiral.
09:41Things are heating up and the war of words will continue because Canada is saying that they have
09:48given India incontrovertible evidence of Indian agencies' links. Prime Minister has gone and
09:54addressed a press conference, which very clearly shows that his intention is to address the
10:00domestic audience rather than make a point to the international community. Because if that would
10:05have been the case, an officer from the ministry would have probably spoken, the spokesperson or
10:11someone. But here the prime minister was talking to the people. That very clearly shows that it
10:17was addressed to the domestic audience. On the other hand, Government of India has very clearly
10:21highlighted that Niger's terrorist links, they have filed an FIR, NIA's charge sheet has been
10:27presented. So we are also going on the offensive. So in that sort of a scenario, I don't see
10:33relations improving in near future. So there is bound to be downturn. How will it affect
10:40people living in Canada? To my mind, visa process is likely to get problematic. You might have delay
10:46in getting visas because the staff will reduce. There may be deliberate delays by the two sides
10:51in granting visas. And that to some extent will have marginal impact as far as trade is concerned.
10:58I don't think so trade is going to be affected significantly, but marginal impact may be there
11:03because if this process continues, you might see that flights, direct flights, if at all they're
11:10there, might get cancelled in due course. And that might affect trade marginally. So trade may not be
11:17affected much, but people to people contact and communications might get afflicted, especially
11:24Indian students who have been fueling Canada's economy. Their onward march to Canada is likely
11:33to reduce significantly. And that would impact Canada's economy to some extent. On the other
11:39hand, as you know, Canada is the 16th largest investor in India. So that would also have an
11:44impact to some extent on India. Right. Thank you for that, Mr. Bansal. I wanted to also bring up
11:51you know, a story that we just broke on the channel a little while ago, where many sources
11:56are telling us that the Indian government does not seem to be that worried about the impact on trade
12:01and that indirect routes will still continue. Keeping that aside, you know, students are
12:05a massive community from India who go to Canada for further education. I wanted to bring in
12:12Ambassador Dayal for this question. I want to get a sense from you, you know, this is a particularly
12:19vulnerable sort of group of people, because they're essentially students, they really hold
12:24no power in this entire discussion. And they're probably traveling for the first time to another
12:29country. How would you see this development for people like, you know, Indian students in
12:37Canada? What would your advice be if somebody you knew was there? Well, you know, there will be
12:45visa delays for even students, as Captain Bansal was pointing out. And there will be
12:53various other forms of hardship, which the students will face, you know, as it is, Canada has
12:59reduced the number of international students that it will be allowing for Canadian universities,
13:07I think it has reduced them by about 35%. So Indian students are also going to be affected,
13:14they will not get admission so easily. Moreover, if they don't get their visas,
13:20then even if they have been admitted by universities, they will not be able to go.
13:24So there is a serious problem in this regard. Of course, the long term solution would lie in
13:31such students not even requiring to go overseas. And that will happen. If we create more universities
13:38here, there are, you know, there's a lot of expenditure on these students being sent out to
13:46study, they have to spend a lot of money, there's a lot of foreign currency that goes, a lot of
13:52all that can be utilized for setting up universities in India. So that is, of course,
13:57the longer term solution, we must not have a situation where students are forced to go
14:04overseas, because they're not able to get admissions here. However, in the shorter term,
14:10as far as students, for instance, who are already in Canada, if they want to come in there to India,
14:17and then they're required to go back, I don't know whether their visas are still valid or whether
14:22they will have to get new visas. So there will be problems for them. And they may just be stuck
14:29in the place where they are. So that there is a serious problem on account of the student
14:35population. I may mention that Canada has profited a lot from the Indian student community, because
14:43they have been providing a lot of finance into this system. They don't go there for free,
14:51they pay heavy fees. And that fee component goes to the Canadian side. So we have been enriching
14:58Canada through the student community, which is going to Canada every year. And I don't think that
15:06the Canadians would stand to gain if there is a stoppage of Indian students into Canada. But
15:14nonetheless, at the moment, the problem is going to be very serious. Not only the students, but all
15:21sections of the Indo-Canadian community are going to be affected. Because visas will be a problem,
15:28other forms of assistance which they may need will be in short supply. As Captain Bunsell was
15:33saying, there's been a reduction in the number of diplomats on both sides. So naturally, the services
15:40will be affected. So this matter needs to be sorted out. But it will not be sorted out during Trudeau's
15:49regime, simply because he is playing to a different agenda. And that agenda is World Bank politics,
15:56for which he needs the support of the extremist Khalistani.
16:00Right. Mazvidyal, thanks a lot. I have with me also Swasne Hyder, who is joining in, a Diplomatic
16:05Affairs Editor from The Hindu. Swasne, thank you so much for joining us in this conversation.
16:10You know, we've taken this topic of this diplomatic role, and some experts have pointed out this is
16:17probably the worst that the Indian-Indo-Canadian relationships have been. I wanted to get your view,
16:24what's probably driving this? Because I'm not getting into the veracity of the claims from
16:30both sides. But what to your mind is driving this? I think, to begin with, the idea that India-Canada
16:39ties have ever been very, very positive. Since 1973, we had not seen any bilateral visit to
16:50Canada by any Prime Minister of India until Prime Minister Modi went in 2015. Perhaps at the time,
16:58the government decided that it wanted to start a new leaf with Canada. Perhaps at the time,
17:03they weren't aware of the history of India and Canada on the Khalistan issue. But what the two
17:08countries had decided over the course of those 40-50 years was to not allow the really, really
17:16difficult political issue. And there's no question that India was not going to, you know, have
17:21completely firm bilateral ties with Canada until this issue was sorted. They had, however, allowed
17:30business trade visas to continue untrammeled. What we're seeing now, and you're quite right in saying
17:36it is probably another, is that what we're seeing now is a breakdown in all those ties. I agree with
17:44Captain Bansal. When he says we don't know where these ties are going to go next,
17:49it doesn't matter whether the governments want to really maybe, you know, put a brake on the
17:55slide in ties right now. But what we've already seen is the high commissions on both sides have
18:02been practically decimated. Already last year, India asked about 41 Canadian diplomats to leave
18:08the country. I think that leaves only about 20 or so of which now six more have been asked to leave
18:19on the Indian side as well. Those are not going to get affected. If visas are affected, students
18:24won't be able to go, as you've been discussing, businessmen just will not be able to go. I think
18:28what we're also likely to see is then those flights being affected. Remember, trade between India and
18:33Canada has been not amongst the highest, but Canadian investment in India has been quite
18:39important. Canadian pension funds have put in a cumulative 55 billion dollars in India over the
18:45years. And what we've seen is in the last year, I think India was some one quarter, 25 percent
18:51of the entire investment by Canadian funds. These are all areas that could now get affected because
19:00of the kind of rancor we're seeing between the two sides. And it is a public spat. It is not
19:05something that the diplomats are able at this point to put under covers, primarily because the
19:10Canadian government has decided to really go public with everything. While I don't think they have yet
19:17provided the evidence to what they are saying, clearly they expect to present that evidence.
19:22They have different rules from the American side, so they clearly expect to present that evidence
19:27when this case goes to trial, the Niger killing case goes to trial
19:31in Canada. But in the meanwhile, until we see that evidence, all we're seeing is some very,
19:39very strong statements being made on both sides. And let's be clear, the two countries today are
19:44accusing each other of being liars, of being murderers, of being extorters. It is very clear
19:52that the language between the two countries is at a place where perhaps diplomacy does not have
19:58a chance for the moment. Right. Thank you for that. I want to bring in Captain Mansal now.
20:04Sir, when you talk about the diplomatic channels being down and unsure as to when exactly this
20:12gets resolved, probably not under a Trudeau government. But is there then hope, if the
20:21government does change, is there hope for some amount of repair? Undoubtedly. I think if Trudeau
20:27government goes and a conservative government comes to power, the situation will definitely
20:31improve. But it will take time. It cannot happen instantaneously if there is a change because
20:37these processes take time. Once the derailment has taken place, it will take time because the
20:43staff will have to be built up. You can't send post high commissioners overnight. The agreement
20:49will come, that will have to be approved, the credentials will have to be presented. So,
20:54it will take time. But yes, I have no doubts if Trudeau government goes and a new government
20:59comes to power, especially a conservative government, the situation may, should improve,
21:04I think. So, I would put it rather than may, I would say should improve.
21:10Ambassador Dayal, your viewpoint, I just wanted to get this in from all three of our panelists
21:15here today. But what's your viewpoint? Do you think that a change in government could probably
21:21speed up the process of reconciliation between the countries?
21:26Well, as I said earlier, as long as Justin Trudeau remains Prime Minister of Canada,
21:33I don't see any possibility of the improvement in our bilateral relations. He is, in fact,
21:40the root cause of the problem. However, if there's a change of government, there could be
21:46some hope. Of course, a lot will depend upon how the new government shapes its policies.
21:53I can't say at this stage that the conservatives will really be helpful in restoring the bilateral
22:00ties to where they were, but certainly there could be some hope. But as I said, as long as
22:06Justin Trudeau remains Prime Minister, I see that there is no chance whatsoever of the improvement
22:12in the relationship. I'm going to bring Swasthi Ma'am into this discussion as well. You said that
22:18between 1973 and 2015, there was no real, you know, amazing relationship between the two countries.
22:24Probably 2015 onward, things have changed a little bit and now we're in difficult territory.
22:31But again, is a conservative government a solution to this problem?
22:37You know, the truth is that the issue predates everyone in that sense. And then there is a need
22:44for the two sides to understand the sensitivities of both sides. On the Canadian side,
22:52there is a sensitivity when it comes to transnational repression, what they call.
22:58On the Indian side, of course, there's a huge sensitivity when it comes to extremists
23:04and terrorists that may target India. I think in, you know, I said that Prime Minister Modi was the
23:09first Prime Minister to actually make a bilateral visit to Canada in 40 plus years. But Prime
23:16Minister Manmohan Singh did go to Canada in 2010 for a G20 meeting. Just before that visit,
23:24the Canadian Prime Minister at the time, Stephen Harper, actually went to great lengths to try and
23:28show the sensitivity. He apologized to the victims, the families of the victims of the
23:35Kanishka tragedy just before that visit. They opened a park in memorial to the Kanishka tragedy
23:42victim. And I think there was a sense that there was a new sensitivity in Canada. These things
23:47cannot be forced at the end of the day when two countries clearly have a divergent position
23:52and it has reached this stage. I think what is also important is to understand that
23:58India's position on the Canadian charges versus India's position on the U.S. charges
24:03seem to be completely divergent. While India has completely rejected the Canadian charges,
24:09said there is not a shred of evidence there. It is clear that India is accepting the American
24:14charges have some merit. India has set up a high-level panel, sent that panel to the U.S.
24:19as of today, and is trying to take those charges very seriously. Given the connections between the
24:25two, and given the fact that it is the U.S. charge sheet that also indicates that there
24:31is some links in the alleged sort of plot that they have said to target Khalistani activists
24:42in the U.S. to the plot to target Khalistani activists in Canada. Given that, I think even
24:48on the Indian side, there needs to be some kind of understanding that it is difficult to treat
24:55both those two countries as completely separate. We know that the U.S. and Canada are close
25:01neighbors. We also know that they are all part of the Five Eyes network. So the idea that we
25:06will be able to deal with one without dealing with the other, or we will be able to completely
25:12sideline the other, I think is something worth revisiting. Ambassador Dayal, from a diplomat's
25:19lens, how do you see the ability of a government to sort of openly discuss these issues, or get
25:26into Canada's obviously being very public with the way that they are dealing with this issue?
25:33Can the Indian government also, or Indian diplomatic community also afford to be as
25:37open or as candid? What do you mean? Of course, India has been very open about discussing this
25:44matter. We have time and again told the Canadians that they should come and sit with us. And if they
25:49have any credible allegations, then they should let us know what those allegations are. It is
25:55the Canadians who keep saying publicly that they have shared with India the allegations, while
26:00India has categorically refuted the Canadian position. So we are very open as regards our
26:06position is concerned. It's just that the Canadians are being extremely double-faced about it.
26:12Captain Mansal, your viewpoint, I just wanted to get a sense from you, the diplomatic response
26:18to these issues, and your view on what that looks like, and what could probably be done better.
26:24See, India's response is for international community. So we are giving a professional
26:28response by MEA spokesperson and the people from the ministry. Canadian response is for the
26:34domestic audience. And as a result, Prime Minister is doing a press conference and making statements
26:40because he's trying to reach out to his vote bank. His whole process of this particular thing is to
26:46preserve his seat, to remain in chair, and to garner support from those Khalistani elements.
26:53So that's the aim. And that's why he's actually trying to justify his actions to his domestic
26:58audience. And that's why he's giving a press conference. Whereas in India's case, we are giving
27:03our position and we are reaching out to the international community. Because if you remember,
27:08yesterday when the officiating High Commissioner of Canada was summoned to the ministry,
27:12he came out of the ministry and actually spoke to the media personnel that we have given
27:17what India was demanding, an incontrovertible proof of India's linkages into this murder. And
27:24that's what he has said. And now we expect India to act. So that's what I'm trying to show, that
27:30is the difference between the approach of the two countries. And then given this sort of a situation,
27:35a quick turnaround or quick improvement in relations seems very, very unlikely,
27:40especially as long as this regime in Canada continues. The elections are still away. The
27:47scheduled elections are next year in October, actually. But if this government falls, you could
27:52see an election maybe much earlier, because this is a minority government. And I think they don't
27:57want to go right now. And that's why they are trying to garner favour from extremist elements
28:03by getting support from New Democratic Party of Jagmeet Singh.
28:08All right. Thank you so much, ladies and gentlemen, for joining us on this
28:12conversation. Surasini Haider, Ambassador Prabhu Dayal, and of course, Sir Bansal,
28:18thank you so much for joining us in this conversation. It's a pleasure talking to you.
28:21And of course, I hope that by the time we meet again, there is some resolution to this entire
28:27and entire debate. And that's the big story for the day. Thank you so much
28:32for watching NTV Prophet. Please stay tuned.