• 3 months ago
Panayam kay DOE Dir. Atty. Rino Abad kaugnay ng pagtaas ng produktong petrolyo

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Transcript
00:00We have on the telephone line Director Forr, Oil Industry Management Bureau of the Department of Energy, Sir Rino Abad.
00:07Good morning, Director Abad. This is Audrey Gorizeta with Dian Carrer of Rise and Shine Philippines.
00:13Good morning to your program and to our countrymen.
00:18Okay, Director. The price of oil products has increased again. What is the reason for this?
00:26Well, I'm not 100% sure, but from what we have read, the effect of this increase is temporary towards the end of the year.
00:43The biggest reason for this is the increase in the interest of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
00:52There is a threat of two strong storms in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.
01:01Those areas are major producers of oil.
01:06It looks like there were some disturbances last week.
01:11Now, another hurricane is approaching.
01:16Fundamentally, towards the end of the year, the forecast is that the demand is low.
01:25Our supply is okay.
01:29There is an offset. Probably, for the next few weeks, we may experience rollbacks again.
01:40Okay. Let me just repeat, Director. What you said earlier is temporary.
01:45So, we hope that the increase in the price of oil products will not be that big.
01:51Yes. Well, this can happen this week and the next week.
01:59But if we are talking about a trend, most of the reasons are towards a bearish outlook.
02:11Meaning, the demand is getting weaker.
02:14The supply is good.
02:15So, most likely, if it doesn't go down, we are sure that it will not go up.
02:23That is the good outlook.
02:26Others said that we are at US$77 per barrel.
02:30If it goes down, it will be hard to go up to below US$70.
02:38We are already at US$60.
02:40What we have been experiencing for the past few years is that the forecast is not comfortable.
02:53But at the US$70, it looks like we are there and we will continue to experience this until the end of the year.
03:01Alright, Director.
03:01For the sake of our consumers, our countrymen,
03:07why does the price of oil products change almost every week?
03:13Oil companies buy oil every 3 months, right?
03:17So, it should be 3 months before there is a price adjustment.
03:21What is the explanation for this, Sir?
03:23Well, this is just a system.
03:26Because when we regulate, in fact, when we regulate,
03:32oil companies may implement any time that they want to implement a price.
03:38Because they will discard it.
03:40That is what the regulated regime said.
03:43There is no price control, including price schedule.
03:46There is no such thing.
03:47However, this has evolved.
03:51This is still the time of Secretary Reyes.
03:54Before, it was set every month to put an order on the price.
04:01But the agreement is that the computation will enter daily.
04:08The effect of daily changes on the price will not disappear.
04:13So, the timing of implementing the adjustment is the agreement.
04:20And it has become a custom or tradition of the downstream oil.
04:27The request was given by the DOE weekly so that the adjustment will not be disturbed every day.
04:36Because usually, our price benchmarks have a daily closing price.
04:44So, if the oil companies can afford it, they can do the daily adjustment.
04:49But it will be a bit of a mess.
04:51It will be new. The adjustment of each gas station will not be consistent.
04:59So, what the oil companies did was to agree every week.
05:03But the computation will enter daily.
05:07Director Rino Abad, good morning. This is Dayan Querer.
05:11Sir, how is the supply of oil in our country?
05:14We have no issue with the supply.
05:17In fact, according to the forecast, even in the global stage, the supply is good.
05:23The economy of China and the US is weak.
05:27So, this is the effect that we have experienced for several months.
05:33In fact, if you remember, from August, we were at US$93-US$94 per barrel.
05:41Now, we are at US$77 per barrel.
05:44This is how our supply is measured and prepared.
05:49Okay. Director Abad, for our consumers to understand,
05:55it is said that if the interest rate in the US decreases,
05:59it is expected that there will be an oil price hike.
06:01Can you explain what the connection is,
06:05what the interest rate is when it comes to the sale of oil, sir?
06:09Well, the sudden decrease in the US interest rate 50 times,
06:17we can see here that the use of money from the banks is decreasing.
06:32So, if it decreases like that,
06:35before, it was only 2% or 1%,
06:39in Europe, the interest rate is still negative.
06:42It means that if you want to do business,
06:45it is better to borrow money, right?
06:48The interest rate is low.
06:50So, in that situation, many businessmen are moving in the business
06:55because the interest rate is low.
06:57So, because the demand is increasing,
07:00including the demand for fuel.
07:02Sir, the price of kerosene did not change.
07:04What is the reason for this, sir?
07:06Well, we cannot say.
07:07It just did not reach the extent of the decrease last week
07:12compared to the past week,
07:15because what we are comparing is the past two weeks,
07:18the average of the past two weeks,
07:20and that is where I am guessing what will be the effect this week.
07:24So, it just did not reach the increase
07:28when there was a big decrease last week.
07:32That is the explanation for that.
07:35But trend-wise, the price increased last week,
07:40from Monday to Friday.
07:42It just could not accept the decrease last week.
07:49So, it could not have an increase this week.
07:53Attorney, how is the price of LPG?
07:56Is there any forecast of an increase or decrease in the price?
08:00Well, historically, this is the period
08:03when the northern hemispheres will enter the winter period.
08:08From October, it will be a stocking period.
08:11November and December, it will go straight to March
08:14or April next year.
08:16So, we expect that the demand will increase
08:21and at the same time, the price will increase.
08:24But we observed that since July,
08:29the increases are very small.
08:31It is averaging around 50 centavos per kilogram.
08:37So, I suspect that because of the effect
08:41of the decrease in the crude oil price
08:44from 94 US dollars per barrel
08:47in the past two to three months,
08:49we are now at 77 US dollars per barrel.
08:52I think that offset coincides with the effect of the LPG price
08:56that instead of having big increases every month
09:00when the winter period starts,
09:02we will not be able to experience such a big increase.
09:05I remember that for the past few years,
09:07we were able to reach an adjustment of 7 pesos per kilogram in October.
09:11But for the past three months,
09:14we have been seeing an average increase of 50 centavos per kilogram.
09:19So, most likely, it will increase towards the winter period.
09:25But the good news is that it is highly unlikely
09:29that we will suddenly see an increase of 7 pesos per kilogram next month.
09:34Before we let you go, Mr. Rino Abad,
09:36I'm sure that some of our motorists
09:39will be annoyed by the 1 peso and 10 centavos increase
09:42in the price of each liter of gasoline.
09:44What is your message to them, sir?
09:47Well, this is increasing,
09:53but it has not yet recovered from the decrease.
09:57Our Dubai crude oil is only reaching 77 pesos per kilogram.
10:06This is a good news.
10:09From way back two or three months ago,
10:12we were at 94 or 93 pesos per kilogram.
10:15I expect that the price trend will improve
10:22if it does not decrease or maintain at that level
10:25towards the end of the year.
10:27There are cases like this where the factors are offset,
10:34such as the decrease in the interest rate.
10:36We expect that to happen because of the price.
10:39But for the longer perspective of our current trend,
10:44it seems that our situation will improve towards the year-end.
10:48Mr. Datot, thank you very much for your time.
10:51Here at Rise and Shine Philippines,
10:53I'm Atty. Rino Abad, Director for
10:55Oil Industry Management Bureau of the Department of Energy.
10:58Thank you very much.

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