#Nifty, #Sensex trade near day's low as L&T, #TCS drag.
Tamanna Inamdar and Niraj Shah dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'.
Tamanna Inamdar and Niraj Shah dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'.
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NewsTranscript
00:00:00India's tower, by proxy of the dues that Vodafone owes it, also falls. IIFL in a bit of trouble.
00:00:07It's going to be downgraded. This is a story that NDTV Profit broke. There's a chance that
00:00:12there could be up to 9000 employees that are sacked. That's seeing a big cut over there.
00:00:17Oil India, of course, is seeing pressure with the entire oil and gas pack. Defence plays
00:00:22also quite poor today. And look at HAL, they're facing the heat. On the upside, Garhwari Tech
00:00:30doing okay. I think a clutch of liquor stocks because of the Andhra policy that has come in.
00:00:34That's one of the few spaces where you're seeing some green. United Brewery is about 4% up.
00:00:40And apart from that, some of the NBFC or broader BFSI players will see an upside. But overall,
00:00:48Neeraj, I think the mood has soured a bit after the euphoria we saw in the morning.
00:00:52The broader end of the spectrum certainly showing that. I think individual portfolios would be
00:00:57hurting very, very badly. So I think that's the piece. And everything from wind equipment to CDMO
00:01:07to some of the tech businesses, a lot of real estate, a lot of these businesses are hurting
00:01:13and hurting very, very badly. So that is something that should worry investors for sure.
00:01:17Remember, telecom is a separate story and there are reasons and we'll, of course,
00:01:21just talk about telecom in great detail. But beyond that, I think there is an issue.
00:01:27And that is something that should worry people as well. Well, we'll get in our experts in just
00:01:31moments from now to talk about what to do in a scenario like this from a markets perspective.
00:01:36But we should get to the top story in just moments from now because the top story really is
00:01:40that the Supreme Court earlier today rejected the telecom operators plea seeking a recomputation of
00:01:48their gross adjusted gross revenues. Remember, Vodafone, Idea, Bharti, Airtel and various of
00:01:52the telcos had actually filed curative pleas against the 2019 top court verdict in the case.
00:01:58The question is, what does it mean now going ahead for some of the telcos? And what is the
00:02:03impact of such a move? My colleague Rucha first joins in to put this into perspective. Rucha,
00:02:08good afternoon. Good afternoon. Thank you. So I'll start with what are AGR dues? Well,
00:02:12these are the dues which are paid by the telecom companies to the government
00:02:16in return of using their spectrum license. Now government calculates this on the basis of total
00:02:21revenue, which includes revenue from telecom as well as non-telecom business. However,
00:02:26the telecom companies were really upset about this fact and they said that only revenue from
00:02:33telecom business should be included while calculating these dues. And then they filed
00:02:38various petition and plea against this kind of move by the government to various authorities.
00:02:44And the latest plea filed by Vodafone, Idea was in October 23. And today the Supreme Court has
00:02:50rejected that plea and said that the telecom companies are required to pay the AGR dues.
00:02:57But then we'll move on to the quantum of dues which are payable by Vodafone, Idea, Bharti,
00:03:02Airtel and Reliance Jio as well. We'll start with Vodafone, Idea. Now it owes around 70,300
00:03:08crore of dues to the government. Bharti, Airtel owes around 44,000 crore dues. Well, there's no
00:03:15major dues payable by Reliance Jio because it started in 2016 and has already paid their
00:03:20dues to the government. Now, moving on to the kind of cash that is lying on the balance sheet
00:03:24of these telecom companies. If we can move on to showing the cash, we'll see that Vodafone,
00:03:29Idea has around 535 crore of cash and Bharti, Airtel has 16,340 crore of cash. So a huge
00:03:37sort of asset liability mismatch is seen over here. But Bharti, Airtel has lower dues than
00:03:44Vodafone, Idea and higher sort of cash balance. So Bharti, Airtel is better positioned than
00:03:51Vodafone, Idea and Vodafone will be hit the most because of the rejection of plea by the Supreme
00:03:58Court. But then let's look at the kind of timeline going back in 2005 and 2006 when all this started
00:04:04where government took the decision of how AGR should be calculated and the telecom companies
00:04:08were upset and then in 2019 these telecom companies had filed a plea against this kind
00:04:14of decision taken by the government. And even moving ahead in 2020 and 21 telecom companies
00:04:23filed the plea but then it was rejected and Bharti, Airtel paid about 18,000 crore of dues
00:04:30and Vodafone, Idea paid about 7,800 crore of dues to the government. But as I rightly mentioned in
00:04:37October 23, Vodafone again filed a plea which was rejected by the Supreme Court today. So all in all
00:04:42just concluding, number one is that telecom companies will have to pay these dues to the
00:04:46government and number two is that Vodafone, Idea will be hit the most because of its huge asset
00:04:52liability mismatch over here. Back to you. Thank you for that Rucha and for putting that
00:04:56into perspective. Gurmeet Chadda joined us now, Managing Partner and CI of Complete Circle.
00:05:01Gurmeet, great to have you on the show and what's an important day. We're going to spend
00:05:05the first few minutes just focusing a bit on what happens to Vodafone from here on.
00:05:12I mean this is one stock which is a retail investor favourite, has had a whole host of
00:05:18different calls on it. In the last few weeks you've seen one brokerage house have a very,
00:05:24very positive view, one have a relatively negative view, both deeming it high risk.
00:05:30The worst case scenario in terms of risk has come to unfold you think for Vodafone?
00:05:38If you recollect our discussion on telecom some time back, I've been making this point that
00:05:43sometimes in the process of identifying turnaround stories, we missed something which was very
00:05:49evident, which was Bharti in the telecom. Look at the way Bharti has gone up. So issue I think
00:05:55which I've been reiterating is while the capital raise was positive for survival of Vodafone and
00:06:00some of the debt got converted into equity. But if you see, it was unlikely they could generate
00:06:06any fee cash flows for at least next four, five years. It also meant that they will do
00:06:12significantly lesser CapEx. Telecom is a CapEx intensive business. You need to continuously
00:06:16upgrade to different networks. They haven't even started on 5G technically in terms of offering
00:06:21that. I think they will continue to lose market share. And this recomputation plea being denied
00:06:31obviously is bad news in terms of any hopes which we had in terms of they coming back. Plus,
00:06:38you needed an ARPU of at least 240, 250 for them to come back on track. So it's a bit of
00:06:43a chicken egg situation. You need to focus on network, bring back people, then move up the ARPU
00:06:50and that unlikely is going to happen with negative cash flow position they have.
00:06:56And Bharti on the other hand, it continues to just do well. Industry leading ARPU at above 210.
00:07:02Look at the Airtel business, the Airtel home business, the digital TV portfolio,
00:07:07all seems to be doing well. And even Africa now seems to have stabilised. In fact,
00:07:11there could be one big trigger which is your home broadband. We have 21, 22 crore households
00:07:18currently. The penetration is just 2 crores. And if they can do the sachetisation they did
00:07:24in terms of prepaid connections in wireless, I think that could make internet penetration go up
00:07:31even further in Indian households. I think the better way to play telecom story is to play the
00:07:36telecom value chain. The best listed player technically now is Bharti. Then you have
00:07:42something like Tata Communications which has guided for 28,000 crores of revenue
00:07:47of which they are saying the data alone and the digital portfolio would be 60%.
00:07:51And they are talking of monetisation levers like real estate, data centres, etc,
00:07:56which they can use to fund this growth. And then you have something like maybe a Tejas network,
00:08:01which makes telecom equipment and networking equipment across the value chain, across
00:08:06customers, across the value chain. I think very gung-ho digital infrastructure story.
00:08:11No, no. That's true. But let me come back to Vodafone. You're right. You need to choose the
00:08:17right players. Maybe seeing the supply chain is a better idea. Bharti looking better off. And you
00:08:22can see that in the stock price where the AGR hit might not be that bad. But what to do with
00:08:27the Vodafone right now? That's the question. How much more of a freefall are you expecting? Because
00:08:33the only light on the horizon, if at all, is the conversion of dues by the government into equity.
00:08:40Would that be seen as a positive? Where does this pain end?
00:08:45See, I think I've been making this point that at some point of time, there could be equity
00:08:49dilution also. And, you know, because the net worth is negative. So, you know, my view is to
00:08:54have always been to avoid, till the time they get a very strong player, you know, who comes in
00:09:00infused not only just capital, but also, you know, you need a strategic investor with deep pockets,
00:09:06as well as, you know, the cutting edge tech abilities to bring any life to it. I think
00:09:11dues getting converted, dues getting delayed, government owning some stake. I mean, the
00:09:16government also owns BSNL with due respect. So, in my view, you know, as I said, the only
00:09:21trigger to me is significant – and I'm repeating the word – significant capital infusion and that
00:09:26to buy a static investor. As and when that comes in, I think that's the point you start to take an
00:09:31investment call around this. Right now, all we are doing is just speculating that, you know,
00:09:35this will happen, that will happen. That is not investing. That is speculating, in my view.
00:09:40Okay. Gurmeet, one quick word on Indus Towers and what happens thereof to that,
00:09:46because some part of that gain was also on the back of Vodafone completing its dues.
00:09:53Absolutely, Neeraj. And, you know, I think there is, I mean, the stock is showing that reaction
00:09:57today. Anything to do with, you know, the financial health of a company, which is your major client,
00:10:03you know, obviously. But I think, as I said, I honestly don't see survivor as an issue at this
00:10:09point of time. You know, I think there are two aspects we are discussing here. One is Vodafone
00:10:13surviving. Second is, you know, making an investment case out of it. So, I wasn't Gango a
00:10:20few years back. I'm not Gango even right now as an investment case. But I think in terms of
00:10:24survivorship, I think, I think the government is clear it doesn't want probably want a two-player,
00:10:29a duopoly in telecom. So, probably, we'll probably have a three-player, you know, or maybe
00:10:34two and a half if I want to call that. So, I think in Indus Tower, it could be, it could be temporary
00:10:39in terms of the movement there. But again, that's the rental part of the business needed in the
00:10:44telecom business. Tower is basically the rental part. I think the bigger value-add is in terms
00:10:49of the software part, the networking part, the telecom equipment part. And the way the world is,
00:10:54you know, we had a globalization last 10 years. Now you're probably looking at regional blocks,
00:10:58data security, et cetera, is becoming huge issues. So, you will see more and more CapEx
00:11:03happening by existing players across the value chain. And I think that's where I think there
00:11:07is more value in names like Tata Com, Tejas, and other digital infrastructure names in the
00:11:13entire value chain. Okay. Thank you so much, Gurveet, for joining in today. Gurveet Chadha
00:11:20talking about the big story today in the markets and really beyond the markets as well. Whether
00:11:26Vodafone does continue in any real way without the kind of crush that was supposed to come from
00:11:33this relief from the Supreme Court really remains to be seen. Probably the government will have to
00:11:38step in. Is that a good idea or not? Are all things that will be discussed down the line,
00:11:42but 18% down on the stock right now at 10 rupees 55 paise. Kush Bora and Rajesh Pal, we are with us
00:11:49on the show today. A very good afternoon to both of you and great to have you in.
00:11:54Kush, let's start with your calls on the index.
00:11:59Hi, first of all, very good afternoon to you and to all the viewers.
00:12:03Well, I want to say let's go out and buy Nifty, but there are a few factors that are just holding
00:12:08me back from a technical standpoint. It's not an entirely convincing move. I think that is
00:12:12also depicted by the fact that we did not hold anywhere close to the highs that we made.
00:12:17That said, the price action is completely different. We've been consolidating here
00:12:22for some time, but then the base is shifting higher, which is also evident by the derivatives
00:12:27data. So if you see the call-in put option data, very surprisingly, there is a put option buildup
00:12:35at the 2500 put option for the next week, which is an in-the-money put option.
00:12:39So that is suggesting that the market is fairly comfortable at or around these levels. So I think
00:12:47as far as the Nifty goes, until the supports are broken, which comes close to 25-150 zones,
00:12:55you should continue to hold your long positions. I won't go out and still make a very aggressive
00:12:59bet as a long position on the Nifty. So I'll hold my long position if I have one until the
00:13:04supports are broken. Bank Nifty, again, we've been very constructive on practically at the
00:13:11all-time high levels today. It was off that. But I think this momentum could very well continue.
00:13:16I think the next level to watch for on the Bank Nifty should be 53-500 once that is taken out,
00:13:2154-200. So if you want to create a long position, like we've been speaking about for the last week
00:13:27or so, that long position on the index should come in Bank Nifty. Okay. Well, Rajesh, in fact,
00:13:33that was going to be my question to you. Should one buy or sell the Bank Nifty currently? What
00:13:39is your call there on the Bank Nifty? No, Neeraj, only private sector banks
00:13:45are showing strength. So though Bank Nifty is trading about to their near-term breakout level
00:13:51of 52,500-600 zone and the put-based concentration is also placed around those levels. So looking at
00:13:58the data set up, yes, one can look to buy Bank Nifty around 52,800-500 kind of zone with stop-loss
00:14:06of 52,650. And on the higher side, once we are able to take out 53-200 zone,
00:14:14I think there could be a really towards 53-600 also. So Bank Nifty is also looking bullish at
00:14:22this moment, though some profit taking at higher level for mid-cap and small-cap space. But
00:14:27we believe that both indexes, Nifty, Bank Nifty are still holding the ground. And we believe once
00:14:32this supply pressure settles down, we could see continuation of up-move for Bank Nifty also.
00:14:37Possible target towards 53,500-600 we can see in next couple of days.
00:14:44Okay. So that's the call on the Nifty and the Nifty Bank. Now to specific stocks. Rajesh,
00:14:50I'll start with you first. What are your trading recommendations for the afternoon today?
00:14:57So first one is Voltas clear uptrend. Stock is enjoying its all-time high trajectory,
00:15:04the way stock is holding the ground at higher level. We believe that here we could see further
00:15:09more round of buying action and outperformance is likely to be there in the stock prices. Voltas is
00:15:14buy for upside target of 1960. Your stop-loss should be placed at 1895. Another stock is from
00:15:22the private bank that is ICICI Bank. This stock also managed to register a new all-time high
00:15:28trajectory. Outperformance is there in this stock. And the way stock is moving in higher top, higher
00:15:34bottom formation, that clearly shows a sustained buying action in the stock. So we believe that
00:15:40ICICI Bank may continue further more upside possible target towards 1340 we could see.
00:15:46And one can place a stop-loss around 1266 to buy ICICI Bank. Third stock is from FMCC Basket,
00:15:52that is Nestle. After a long underperformance and consolidation now stock managed to do breakout on
00:16:00the daily as well as on the weekly chart. The way stock has moved up in last couple of days,
00:16:06we believe that Nestle may extend its gain and the possible target towards 2710 to 2720.
00:16:13So Nestle is buy with stop-loss of 2615.
00:16:17Okay, so Nestle is a buy on 2615. A whole host of picks for you today on the show. But let's
00:16:25come to some of those buzzing stocks and get a view on that as well. Kush, let's talk about
00:16:31the elephant in the room, Vodafone and Indus Towers. If you're holding, what are you doing
00:16:37now as an investor? Apart from feeling a lot of pain,
00:16:43I think there is very little you can do now. I think idea, time and again, we've maintained,
00:16:49we've discussed that that's not one stock that you really want to trade or invest in. But then
00:16:54again, now if you, of course, there will always be contrarian players and people who are keen
00:16:59and interested. Now, if you are holding, it's not a bad idea to exit even at the current juncture.
00:17:05But if you want to give yourself that last glimmer of hope, then I think a support zone for this one
00:17:09is that 9.5 and 8. Those are the long term support zones that the stock has actually
00:17:16witnessed in the past. So maybe that could act as your stop loss, but not a bad idea to exit
00:17:20even now. As far as Indus Towers goes, here we've seen the dent, but we are seeing the recovery,
00:17:26as opposed to Vodafone idea, which continues to hit fresh lows for the day. In Indus Towers,
00:17:32we've seen a recovery. This is very close to the support zone of 375, 380. We are seeing the stock
00:17:38trade above that. This is one that you can hold. Your waiting period might perhaps be a little
00:17:42longer now, but this is still one stock that you can hold. 360 is a very strong support zone on
00:17:48this one. So if you've got a position, your trailing stop loss should come in at 360.
00:17:53So Vodafone still an exit and Indus Towers is a hold with a stop loss at 360.
00:18:00So Vodafone run now, even if you can. What about your picks for this afternoon, Kush?
00:18:06Sure. Two of them and I continue to maintain that hedged position with a long and a short call
00:18:12both. So Anantraj continues to do well even in today's session. If you see, there is buying and
00:18:18it's actually coming a little late in the day perhaps just when the show started. It's
00:18:22gained about a percent or so after that as well. So Anantraj on a very strong footing, 680, 699
00:18:30are your targets. 649 is where you place your stop loss. On the sell side, we've got Concur,
00:18:35we've discussed this sell call around 1000 levels also in the past. The stock is continuing to
00:18:41move on the downside, broken the 200 day moving average as well three sessions back and continues
00:18:46to slide lower. Now you're looking at the medium term support zone at 880, which should act as your
00:18:53second target. 895 being an intermediate target and the stop loss on this one comes in at 920.
00:18:58So Anantraj is a buy and a Concur is a sell. Okay. Anantraj is a buy, Concur is a sell and
00:19:05those are sort of the topics that we have this afternoon. But let's shift focus. We have a
00:19:13superb speaker to talk to us right now. Rahul Bajori of Bofa Securities. We'll be talking to
00:19:18him in a few minutes from now, but an important day because remember the big event that we've
00:19:23been waiting for, which is the Fed cut is now behind us, better than what was expected,
00:19:29a 50 basis points. Markets have absorbed it, celebrated and then now taken a break.
00:19:34That's what's been happening really on the index and like Kush said a short while ago,
00:19:39is keen to go long but a little hesitant on the nifty because of what's happening. A bigger cut
00:19:46really in the broader markets. Look at what's happening with the mid cap and small cap index
00:19:50seeing a bout of pain that's going even further than that. I'm going to come to you Rajesh on
00:19:57some of the stocks that are buzzing today and let's look at some of the liquor players,
00:20:01Radico, you know, Tilak Nagar, all of them running up and then losing their gains completely. On the
00:20:10charts technically is that story also done? Tilak Nagar industry is off its highest but
00:20:14still at least in the green. UBL, any of those that you like?
00:20:20I think most of the stocks have attracted the profit booking, be it Radico, United,
00:20:25Split and other stocks. So I think most of these stocks have run up quite well in last couple of
00:20:32week and the way market is also showing some bit of profit taking from the higher level. So I think
00:20:38it's in line with the market behaviour. Though if we analyse on the structure for Radico,
00:20:44it's still stock is holding the strength on the long term to medium term chart. I think in this
00:20:50correction, again, if it's stocks comes around 2060, that's the important support area for the
00:20:55stock in the decline. So I think wait for another 2-3% kind of correction in the stock and if it's
00:21:02hold about 2060, I think some pullback action we could see from those levels. Even in the United
00:21:09Split, we have seen a very strong run up and some corrective move is happening in this stock. Stock
00:21:15is still holding above its near term, short term moving averages. So I think, again, in this
00:21:21correction, United Split is again giving you opportunity to buy the stock. One should wait
00:21:27for the level of 1500 and that's the important level in this correction. I think around those
00:21:33levels, one can start buying in this stock and possibly again, stock may resume its uptrend.
00:21:40So at this juncture, we will keep stop loss of around 1470 to buy United Split also in this
00:21:47decline. All right, Rahul Bajoria with us, Head of India Asian Economic Research at Bofast
00:21:56Securities. Rahul, great to speak with you and congratulations on the new gig. Great to speak
00:22:03to you after you've joined this position and on a good day, important day to understand what's
00:22:09happening with global economy, what's next for the Indian economy, etc. So let's start with that.
00:22:14The Fed has started the process. The baton now moves to Bank of England, Bank of Japan.
00:22:20When do you think the Reserve Bank of India jumps in with the rate cut?
00:22:25Thank you, Tamanna, for your wishes. So I think at this point in time, the guidance from the RBI
00:22:32has been fairly clear. The governor has been sort of indicating that they are still not done
00:22:38with the last mile management of inflation. And as the target alignment is in sight,
00:22:46I think we are going to see maybe a shift in the policy communication in the last quarter
00:22:51of the year. So we think that while October is unlikely to be a live meeting, December is the
00:22:58first instance where we could see a small rate cut cycle begin. We think that inflation appears
00:23:04to be reasonably well in check and growth also cyclically seems to be softening a bit.
00:23:08And that kind of sets the tone for the RBI also to move. But then it is going to be a much shallower
00:23:14rate cutting cycle in India than what we are likely to see elsewhere. When you say shallower,
00:23:21what do you mean? What are you pencilling in for the rest of this year, Rahul?
00:23:27So in the current fiscal year, we think 50 basis points looks like a reasonable assessment. So
00:23:32that kind of takes us from 6.5% to 6% by the February meeting. And then we think that the
00:23:39RBI again will look at the supply side dynamics, wait for the monsoon cycle to play out. And if
00:23:44monsoons are normal as we are entering a La Nina cycle, then maybe another 50 basis points in the
00:23:49next fiscal year by December 2025, which takes you to a neutralish kind of a rate at 5.5%,
00:23:56which I think is the right level for a country which is looking at 7% trend growth and around
00:24:014% inflation. In terms of economic outlook, and let me come to some of the points that
00:24:07were made by the Federal Reserve in that meeting, focus now for them at least shifts more on labour
00:24:15market rather than inflation as an issue. Will further 50 basis point cuts, at least in the rest
00:24:24of this calendar year, drive more flows towards India? How do you see the flows and India equation
00:24:30in light of what we've heard? Yeah, so I think if we sort of take a view
00:24:35of what's happening in the US, there clearly seems to be an emphasis on kind of trying to
00:24:41recalibrate the monetary policy to where the state of the economy is. And we do think that a front
00:24:50loaded rate cutting cycle is quite likely. So we are looking for another 75 basis points of cuts
00:24:55in the US in the next quarter. So that's 150 basis point and 125 basis point depending on
00:25:00the incoming data and then another 125 basis points of cuts next calendar year. So you are
00:25:05going to see a reasonably large cutting cycle now in context of what it does to India. I just came
00:25:11back from the US, the feedback on India remains fairly and very comprehensively positive as far
00:25:17as structural flows into the economy is concerned. The lack of currency appreciation does make
00:25:23people a little bit reluctant to kind of really put their alpha to work in India right now.
00:25:27But I think from a structural standpoint, you know, flows both in equity and debt markets are
00:25:32likely to continue. And we probably see a fairly strong BOP position both this fiscal year and
00:25:38next fiscal year. So I don't think that the investment outlook is going to change materially,
00:25:43what you probably end up seeing is just a timing of it might be a little bit more
00:25:47backloaded in the context of where the rate cycle in US pushes flows into emerging markets.
00:25:53Rahul, good afternoon, Neeraj here. I heard you say that it will be a shallower cycle.
00:25:59And maybe you responded to that, but I would still want a pointed answer if you will.
00:26:04What is your sense? Do we see action in India in October? Do we see December? Do we see Feb?
00:26:09Or is it difficult to call that right now? No, I think our baseline is that December is
00:26:14the first meeting where you know, you will probably see a rate cut coming through in India.
00:26:19We are expecting only 50 basis points in this fiscal year, which is kind of getting priced in
00:26:24as far as say the fixed income markets are concerned. But next year, also, we think there's
00:26:28room to cut rates by 50 basis points in India. You know, so you're going to not see India move
00:26:35in line with what's happening with the Fed. I don't think that's ever been the case in the
00:26:39last few hiking and cutting cycles. But then with inflation aligning itself closer to 4%,
00:26:45aligning itself closer to 4% than we have seen in the last few years,
00:26:50there is no real need to keep real rates very elevated as it is right now. And credit growth
00:26:55is coming off as well. So you know, you are seeing signs of RBI also kind of coming to a point where
00:27:01rates can be recalibrated slightly lower. Not a need to like really cut,
00:27:06but you know, kind of recalibrated slightly to the new economic realities.
00:27:11Well, great to speak with you as always, and look forward to chatting with you soon. Rahul
00:27:16Bajoria there. The Bofa view on interest rate cuts, we might see 50 basis points
00:27:22as far as India is concerned in this financial year. So not quite as aggressive,
00:27:27but that will be the next big trigger as far as markets are also concerned from our perspective.
00:27:32Time for a very short break. On the other side, we get you the top
00:27:35BTSD ideas. Stay tuned for that and a lot more.
00:29:35Thank
00:30:05you.
00:30:35Thank
00:31:06you.
00:31:29All right, welcome back. You're watching India Market Close. Just about half hour to go to
00:31:33a day of trade that started out much more positive than it's ending. A little bit of
00:31:38concern there coming in, creeping in definitely. Neeraj Diwan joining us, independent market expert.
00:31:43Neeraj, hi. Great to have you on the show. I want to take your view on the kind of hit
00:31:49we have seen in BFSI stocks and relatively better, the bank nifty now coming off.
00:31:57Just want to understand from the point of view of Fed impact really getting baked in,
00:32:02how would you look at some of these and what would be your topics here?
00:32:06Yeah, hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for having me on the show. I think the BFSI space is one which
00:32:12should be positively impacted by the Fed rate cut and somewhere down the line, maybe toward the end
00:32:17of the year, maybe RBI may also follow suit. So I think BFSI space, you can go with a large cap
00:32:24name according to my understanding, because that is where you still have comfort. If you look at
00:32:30AGC bank or a Quotec bank or ICC bank, you still have that valuation comfort. You can go somewhere
00:32:37down and look at some private sector banks like IDFC first bank also. So you have comfort across
00:32:44this segment. So I think you can take your pick from the large caps. And I think at these
00:32:49valuations which they are trading at, I think with the one, one and a half year view, you can
00:32:54make a decent return. Neeraj, what's the view on some of the NBFCs? I mean, Bajaj housing finance
00:33:03listing has created quite a stir. The stock is down today. And a lot of people might be
00:33:08thinking that, oh, this is the dip that we need to get into. But it is an expensive stock for sure.
00:33:14So which side are you tilting on fundamentally? Good afternoon.
00:33:18Yeah, good afternoon. You know that we are always seeing fundamentals. For us,
00:33:22valuation is very important. We'll not go chase some stock just because market is
00:33:29chasing it or it's from a very renowned corporate house. Valuations is what ultimately matters. So
00:33:37at 150, 160, at more than five and a half, six times price to book, I will not be really chasing
00:33:46Bajaj housing finance. And I would look at other options which are still available at feasible
00:33:51two and a half, three times. So for a, even for a good corporate growing housing finance,
00:33:56you know, I would not really like to give, you know, three, three and a half, four times to the
00:34:00maximum. So at this valuation, definitely I'll not be looking at Bajaj housing finance.
00:34:05Okay. So you're not looking at Bajaj housing finance either. Valuations now becoming
00:34:11uncomfortable. But one company in that space, which is getting quite a bit of heat is IIFL
00:34:17finance. And this is an NDTV profit exclusive. They may face a ratings downgrade on delays in
00:34:22removal of the RBI embargo. Rating agencies have conducted a review recently. What we're learning
00:34:29is that there is an issue owing to low tenure of gold loans. As of August, gold loans were at around
00:34:3712,000 crore rupees on their book. IIFL finance may undergo layoffs if bans persist. There is
00:34:44one figure out there saying that you could have layoffs of at least 9,000 people. IFL finance
00:34:50already is in the process of laying off employees in unprofitable areas. And there are at least
00:34:54four to five gold loan employees each in 2,700 branches. The company has provided a compliance
00:35:02report to RBI in August. Now the story broken by my colleague Vishwanath Nair. Now for that,
00:35:08look at what's happened to the stock. I mean, the context of this, of course, that in March this
00:35:13year, RBI had ordered IFL finance to stop lending against gold with immediate effect. And that
00:35:19situation doesn't really seem to have changed much for IFL finance and hence the ratings downgrade,
00:35:25which could be around the corner. Neeraj, just wanted to understand if you're looking at this
00:35:30stock in this space? The stock looked oversold yesterday also. Because after the ban, the stock
00:35:39is really corrected. I think till you get more clarity on the bad news, the ban still continues.
00:35:44And if there's a rating downgrade, that can be double whammy for them. I think better to avoid
00:35:49it for the time being, get some more clarity. Once this is settled and you have clarity, and then
00:35:53only, even if it's a little higher, it doesn't matter. But you enter into the stock only once
00:35:58you have clarity on this gold loan issue and the ratings issue. Rajesh, are you looking at IFL
00:36:05finance? Any value there at these levels? I think some recovery is taking place in this
00:36:15stock in last couple of weeks. Stock is now struggling to cross its immediate supply zone,
00:36:20which is based at around 530 kind of zone. So until the stock not crosses those levels,
00:36:26some consolidation we can see for some more time. And on the breakout of 540,
00:36:33there is a possibility of 600 kind of target on the higher side. But on the downside,
00:36:38the immediate and important support is placed at around 466. So I think 466 to 520 would be the
00:36:45consolidation range for some more time. And either side breakout will decide the
00:36:49major direction for the stock. Okay. Well, so that's IFL finance.
00:36:56It's difficult to get the calls on Bajaj housing finance from a technical perspective,
00:37:01but it might be easier to do that on the liquor names, though I think we've discussed some of
00:37:06those. But fundamentally, what would this mean? Let's first understand the issue in detail. Chandra
00:37:10Bamu Naidu-led Andhra government has cleared a new liquor policy, which has adopted a more
00:37:14private retail system. Mahima Johnson, what this means for some of the alcohol players? Mahima,
00:37:19good afternoon. That is the policies aiming at quality, quantity and price. Now this comes after
00:37:27in 2019, Andhra Pradesh had almost banned buying alcohol from branded companies.
00:37:33And people did face serious repercussions after this. Their health got deteriorated. And after
00:37:38this, a new excise policy has come out and all liquor brands will be made available. And this
00:37:43will be from 1st of October. And private shops will also be allocated through a lottery system
00:37:48and a non-refundable fee of 2 lakh will be paid for this. 13 premium shops will be set up across
00:37:53state, excluding Tirupati, of course. And the alcohol from all brands will be made available
00:37:59just at Rs. 99 for every 180 ml is what the policy says. Now, a couple of companies that could
00:38:07benefit from this, because even before 2019, these companies were major suppliers in Andhra
00:38:12Pradesh. It's United Spirits, United Breweries, Tilaknagar Industries and Radico Khetan. Tilaknagar
00:38:18Industries has recently launched a new brandy in Andhra Pradesh. And it had acquired Prague
00:38:24distilleries in Andhra Pradesh between 2008 and 2014. And since then, it is operating from that
00:38:30particular distillery in Andhra Pradesh. And roughly in FY24, the distillery had a revenue
00:38:36share from that distillery increased by 34%. And it has a capacity of over 6 lakh cases per year.
00:38:43The next one is United Breweries, where volumes in Q1 were largely driven by
00:38:47Andhra Pradesh and it had an operating capacity of 30% only because of the ban.
00:38:53But going forward, of course, the new excise policy will benefit United Breweries because
00:38:59historically, Kingfisher has had a share of 75% almost from Andhra Pradesh. And United Brewery
00:39:04eyes revenue increase with this new liquor policy is what the MD has already said. And lastly,
00:39:10Radico Khetan also has bottling units in Andhra Pradesh. So all of these
00:39:14companies and stocks will be in focus on the back of this.
00:39:17Okay. Thanks, Mahima. Neeraj, there's a bit of a sell the news happening here.
00:39:24But intuitively, this should be positive. Are you constructive liquor, the businesses?
00:39:32Yeah, actually, we are constructive liquor. I also like some of these companies,
00:39:37which I think though you've seen some movement in the stock already happening.
00:39:41One stock that I was looking at was Global Spirits because that stock had corrected a lot.
00:39:45And once there was some improvement in the availability of raw material,
00:39:49you saw some more happening that stock has already moved, I think 30-40% in the last
00:39:56month or so. So I think that is the case from a lot of other liquor companies also.
00:40:01If one has a longer term perspective, I think even
00:40:05at these valuations, even at the current prices,
00:40:08the stocks do have value over a 1-1.5 year period. Short term, I'm not too sure because
00:40:14they've seen a move. So there may be some consolidation, some profit taking down the line.
00:40:18But over 1-1.5 years, I think still there's value in liquor stocks.
00:40:23Okay. And Kush, what is your sense? Anything that is bottling out or anything that you would go out
00:40:28and trade on the short side in this liquor space? Not on the short side. I mean, if I
00:40:34have to pick a short call in this space, then it will be United Spirits. And the only reason being
00:40:38that we are seeing some negative divergences, but that's already playing out. So you wouldn't want
00:40:42to do that. In fact, I take this dip in Radico Khaitan as a buying opportunity. The stock was
00:40:48already in an overheated territory, perhaps waiting for a trigger to correct. It's a sharp
00:40:53correction today, but I think that's a bit of a healthy sign for the stock. Now, if you do want
00:40:58to wait and give it one more day, then I would just wait up until the level of 2060, 2070. If
00:41:04you do get it around those levels, then the entry point is very attractive and does make for a good
00:41:09buy from those levels. United Breweries is also a good buy at the current juncture. The only
00:41:15challenge is that 2150 has been a bit of a resistance in the near term. But given what's
00:41:20happening in the broader market, in the liquor space, I think that we will take this move where
00:41:25the stock is now resisting close to that 2150 mark. With the kind of volumes that you're seeing,
00:41:29I won't be surprised that in the coming days, the stock breaks this resistance band and moves
00:41:34towards 20 to 100 and perhaps even 20 to 50 kind of levels. So United Breweries and Radico Khaitan,
00:41:40slightly different fortunes for the day. But I think both seem like a good buy for different
00:41:46reasons at the moment. Okay, Radico Khaitan down 6% now after all of that euphoria. But the stock,
00:41:53which hasn't let up since this morning, is NTPC, buzzing today since its subsidiary
00:42:00NTPC Green Energy has filed for an initial public offer. The reason is also because NTPC shareholders
00:42:07will get some advantage in applying for the offer, and which is why you're seeing that
00:42:12buzz coming in. Mehika joining us to give us more details of the IPO and what the potential market
00:42:17cap of the company will be. NTPC is buzzing in trade because its renewable energy arm NTPC Green
00:42:25Energy has filed for its IPO yesterday and the company will be raising 10,000 crore via an
00:42:29initial public offering, which will only consist of a fresh issue. And majority of the proceeds
00:42:33will be used for debt repayment and general corporate purposes. Now when you talk about the
00:42:37valuations of the companies, well, let's first start with the listed peers. The company has
00:42:41two listed peers. One is Adani Green Energy and Renew Energy Global. When you look at the EV to
00:42:46EBITDA multiples of this company, Adani Green trades at a 50.9 EV to EBITDA multiple and Renew
00:42:51Energy Global at 13.73. So when you take the average of these two, it comes to 32. And when
00:42:56you talk about the potential financials in FY25 for NTPC Green Energy, well, Q1, the company made
00:43:01around 650 crores of revenue. So based on this run rate, it could see revenues of around 2,600
00:43:09in FY25 and a 2,300 crore EBITDA in FY25 if it maintains its FY24 margins of 88%.
00:43:17So when you talk about the potential market capitalization, it could stand around 75,000
00:43:21crores because taking the consideration of the 32 EV to EBITDA multiple with the FY25 estimated
00:43:27EBITDA. And this could lead to a potential equity dilution of around 13% equity, which comes up to
00:43:33around 100 crore equity shares. The company has a total outstanding share capital of 750 crore
00:43:39equity shares. Okay. So that's one of the reasons why NTPC is in full flush today. Kush,
00:43:45let me come to you on NTPC on the charts first, still standing strong at 2.5% up
00:43:50in a market which otherwise has lost some steam.
00:43:55Absolutely. And it's not a bad buy. It says that it's not a typical trader counter. I mean,
00:43:59today the stock would have seen a fair degree of upside and then pulled off from there. But I think
00:44:04this is the one for a positional bet, a medium term kind of an entry. So NTPC, you can consider
00:44:11at the current juncture as well, very neatly placed. This is the second time this is testing
00:44:17the 420, 425 kind of levels on the back of very strong volumes for a very obvious reason. I think
00:44:24on the downside, you can place your stop loss and this is a positional one close to 405 levels.
00:44:29On the upside, the stock could very well test 440 and 460 kind of zone. It's just that you would
00:44:34want to stay in this for some time, let's say a couple of months. Don't take this as an immediate
00:44:39PTSD or a very short term trading bet. Be in this for some time.
00:44:45Okay. Neeraj, what do you make of the bars in NTPC? And then of course, I'll come to you on
00:44:50the whole IPO excitement and NTPC green. But let's talk about the NTPC stock right now.
00:44:56I think today they're buying industry because people are buying it to be part of the shareholder
00:45:02quota so they can apply for the NTPC green IPO. Otherwise, the stock has run up a lot. So I agree
00:45:09that this is a very good long term bet. And this one is holding it, you should hold on
00:45:14the stock for a longer time. But I think for entry opportunities, one can wait and
00:45:20get a little better opportunities, some consolidation, some correction.
00:45:25I don't think one should be chasing it. And to get an IPO as a shareholder, you just need to buy
00:45:32one share, two shares, you get that shareholder reference. But otherwise, good long term bet.
00:45:39But then for the shorter term, I think the move will happen and it may consolidate around these
00:45:44levels. It may not give you that kind of return over the next six, eight months, but
00:45:49for one to two years, three years, definitely it's a very good investment.
00:45:53And are you at all excited about the NTPC green IPO, Neeraj?
00:45:59Yes, definitely. I think that that will be also pure green power play. So depending on what
00:46:06value should come there, I think there will be a lot of excitement. And normally we've seen that
00:46:11such kind of IPO, which they do leave something for the investor when they come to the IPO. So
00:46:19I'm sure that they will also be leaving something on the table and there will be a lot of interest
00:46:24in this IPO. The parent companies, there are at least five or six parent companies right now,
00:46:31which have IPOs coming. So just the point that Neeraj Dhawan made, and I'm just going to come
00:46:36to it in a bit of detail. Basically you have shareholder quotas in IPOs and that makes it
00:46:43very interesting because if you have an IPO coming, then people come in and buy that company
00:46:49in hope of that shareholder quota, right? That's what's happening with NTPC. You will see that
00:46:54happening with Hero as well, because Hero FinCorp IPO is expected to come. Tata Motors at some point
00:47:02will be having off its electric mobility. So there's an opportunity there. Mannapuram Finance,
00:47:09Muthud are some of the others who are expecting to bring IPOs and hence you are seeing this kind
00:47:15of an enthusiasm just as a play there, Neeraj. Do you think that makes sense as a strategy?
00:47:23Yeah, it depends on what company you're talking about. Like NTPC is a very good investment
00:47:28otherwise also. So even if you're investing in it and get a shareholder quota in the NTPC green,
00:47:35IPO is definitely good. But it depends on what company, like Tata Motors, maybe one needs to
00:47:42look at what is happening to the EV space currently in the shorter term. So you have to
00:47:47really see where... If you just need a shareholder quota, you can just apply, you can just take one,
00:47:54two, five shares. But to really invest in a company,
00:47:58we need to look at the valuation of the parent company and then only get into it.
00:48:04Okay. So, all right, be selective if you're trying to see that parent company play. But remember,
00:48:10today's a day where we are still absorbing the response to the Fed outcome and wondering what
00:48:16to do next. The financial space can do extremely well, according to Gautam Shah from Goldilocks
00:48:21Premium Research. Listen in to his topics.
00:48:29The pockets that we continue to like would be pharma and IT. I know IT had a down day yesterday,
00:48:34but overall structurally, we remain very, very bullish. And the two other spaces which I see
00:48:38are potential big winners over the next three to six months, first would be metals. I think we've
00:48:44seen an excellent comeback in the last five to seven days. And with what's happened yesterday
00:48:48in the US, I just feel that the metals index is ready for a breakout past 9600. Once that
00:48:54confirmation happens, we are looking at a thousand point move on the metals index.
00:48:58And chemicals, very quietly over the last six weeks, we've seen a nice rebound in all the
00:49:02top stocks. Look at the Deepak Nitrate, look at the Tirumalai Chemicals. Many of these names have
00:49:08done very well. So that's, again, a pocket that we like. And not to forget FMCG. ITC is quietly
00:49:14sustaining above 500, Godrej Consumer, Hindustan Unilever. So these are the pockets that we like.
00:49:21And wondering if those pockets have some strength
00:49:25fundamentally as well. So that's the other question. Would you buy? Because I think
00:49:30Gautam spoke about this. Rajesh Palia spoke about Nestle. Kush spoke about an FMCG stock today or
00:49:36yesterday. Niraj Dewan, is it prudent to buy a large FMCG company as an investment right now,
00:49:44or are there other pockets available? I think there are other pockets available. If you look
00:49:50at FMCG also, if we looked at this four, five months back, March, April, when you were getting
00:49:58Hindustan Unilever at 22, 23 hundred rupees, we're getting Britannia at 5000 odd. But that
00:50:04was the time to really accumulate those kinds of stocks. You already got the return and you can hold
00:50:08on to it. But to make a fresh entry after seeing this kind of run in the last three, four months
00:50:13only, you may get frustrated buying them at these levels. And then you may hold on to them for six
00:50:20months, eight months without too much of a return when other markets may give you better returns.
00:50:25So I think IT, I agree. IT has run up, but still there is something which has happened
00:50:31globally. This event which has happened is the US Fed rate cut will have an impact on that space
00:50:36also. And they're like the statement that is coming from the US, but the economy is still
00:50:41resilient, still doing well. So IT in this space, even after the run up that we've seen over the
00:50:47last month or so, month or two months, still I think has that valuation comfort and you can still
00:50:53get a return from these levels. But FMCG, I think has seen that run up and I don't see, maybe there
00:50:59can be some up move because monsoons were good and inflation in India may come down a little bit
00:51:06more. So they may get some impact because of that. But I think some of the major moves happened for
00:51:12this year at least. Okay. So those are some of the topics that you need to look at at this point.
00:51:21But we'll come to the BTST calls for tomorrow, just about 10 minutes to go. And Rajesh, let me
00:51:29start with you on what do you think would be the top calls for our viewers watching right now,
00:51:34what would be your top trades for tomorrow? So another banking stock where we are focusing,
00:51:40that is Kotec Bank, again from the private sector bank and the way Kotec Bank is moving
00:51:45in upsloping channel on daily chart and stock comfortably holding all its near term moving
00:51:50averages. We believe that this stock has potential again to surpass its previous swing high of July
00:51:592024. And the way stock has moved up in last couple of days, Kotec Bank can be looked at to buy
00:52:06upside target 1930-1940. Stop loss can be placed at 18550. Second stock is Oberoi Realty. Stock is
00:52:17holding about to its breakout on weekly chart that has happened in the last week itself.
00:52:24And the way stock has formed a base, we believe here we can see a good traction on the buying side
00:52:30and possible target towards 1880 we can see in Oberoi Realty. So here also one can deploy some
00:52:36long trade with stop loss of 1820. And the third one is Max Health. Falling trend line breakout has
00:52:44taken place in this stock and the way stock has shown strength on a weekly as well as on the daily
00:52:50chart. We believe that Max Health can extend its gain. 1020-1030 would be the next target.
00:52:56Keep your stop loss around 975.
00:53:20But optimist hiding behind that realist also.
00:53:25I fall in that camp. I fall in that camp. There is money to be made on both sides of the market,
00:53:31isn't there? So if you're looking for a BTSC, then I think that trade is done for the day. We
00:53:36spoke about Anantraj. The stock is up a percent and a half. 680 was the first target. The stock is
00:53:42well and truly above that. So if you're looking for a BTSC trade, I think you could just perhaps
00:53:46take some money home, enjoy that profit. If not, you could hold that for the target of 699.
00:53:51Now, as far as the trade for tomorrow goes, it's an STB team. The mood of the market isn't really
00:53:56all that encouraging and the indices don't really tell that complete picture.
00:54:00Coal India is a stock that I have on the short side. Concord, we've already discussed.
00:54:05Coal India is a stock that you might want to consider as a hedged position on the short side.
00:54:09The downward target here is 470 and 465. The stop-loss is 485. And this is purely an STBT call.
00:54:16If the stop-loss is hit, you're better off exiting this. The stock might traverse from there. But
00:54:21from a near-term STBT perspective, Coal India 470, 465 are the target, and 485 is where you
00:54:27place that stop-loss. So do keep an eye out for this as well. Those are good levels. So
00:54:37485 stop-loss, and the target is 465. The current is about 477.
00:54:43Your PSUs have taken a bit of a stick. Niraj Deewan, come in on this.
00:54:47Oil prices fall. It should be negative for upstream, positive for downstream.
00:54:53Now, we're seeing upstream correcting, but we're seeing downstream correcting as well.
00:54:58I mean, since the time oil has receded sub-70, HPPP IOC has actually been in the red. Why so?
00:55:07I think oil needs to stay according to my understanding. I'm not an oil and gas expert,
00:55:13but according to my understanding, between 70 and 80 is when it's good for the marketing companies
00:55:18also because they also have to keep a margin. So I think below that, the margins also shrink
00:55:24an absolute value. I think above 70 and between 70 and 75 is good for oil marketing companies.
00:55:33If it is going close to 80 and above, then of course, the ONGCs and all tend to benefit.
00:55:40But I think 70 or close to 70 is somewhere where both upstream or downstream get a little cautious
00:55:48as far as profitability is concerned. Serious pullbacks today into some of
00:55:55these stocks. Rajesh, BP, HP, IOC, and particularly BPCR, which is down about 4%.
00:56:00Are there more downsides here or are they bottoming out?
00:56:05No. Still, we may see furthermore supply pressure as stock is now broken. It's a 50-day
00:56:12moving average support area. And again, the previous swing low of August is also broken.
00:56:19So I think we may see furthermore correction in the stock if it's sustained below to 3.30
00:56:25kind of level. Possible downside can extend to the level of 3.18, 3.15 kind of level. So I think
00:56:32again, one should revisit around those levels, whether the stock is able to hold out those
00:56:37support areas or not. But for the long term, yes, the stock structure is bullish, but near-term
00:56:41structure is suggesting some more pressure we could see in the continuation of this down move.
00:56:48Okay. Well, gentlemen, all of you, thank you so much for taking the time out and being with us
00:56:53and giving us your thoughts. Really appreciate your time this afternoon. And by the way, speaking
00:56:57of global opinion as well, we spoke to Harold Vander Linn of HSBC, and rate cuts in the US,
00:57:04according to him, could be net positive for emerging markets. But even with investments
00:57:10in Japanese market schooling, the money may not necessarily flow into India. This is his view.
00:57:16Listen into a slice of the conversation that we had with him.
00:57:19So the view is that these rate cuts will be positive for emerging market assets. And we like
00:57:24risk. Emerging markets is more risky than developed markets. So that's good. And what you're going to
00:57:29see is that because it doesn't make as much sense now to keep money in money market deposits anymore
00:57:34in the US, you want to put money somewhere else. And equities and Asian equities will fit into that
00:57:40as well. In addition to that, what we also see is that appetite for the Japanese market is cooling.
00:57:47And so you see the money is coming out of Japan. It doesn't have to go into Asia. Could be
00:57:52going somewhere else as well. But that's something to keep in mind as well. So there
00:57:55are two sort of dynamics that is good for Asian markets. And then the question is, of course,
00:58:00will they go to India? But the funny thing is that for global fund managers,
00:58:06they're underweight on India. That's got nothing to do with their view on India that has been
00:58:11negative or so. On the contrary, most of them are positive. It's just that they feel uncomfortable
00:58:17with the high valuations. And local investors have bought up that market. So they've pushed
00:58:22the foreign investors out. Well, Harold van der Linde mentioned about how valuations are
00:58:28probably a concern. OK, let's start wrapping up the markets. It deserves a full two and a half
00:58:33minutes today simply because of the way it's behaved. Started off well. Rate cuts are behind
00:58:38us, but there is a bit of a sulking that's happening. You would argue that this may be a
00:58:43day's plan as well, that the bias probably still is towards the upside, at least in the short term.
00:58:49But today we've seen the broader markets really cracking in trade, because if you look at the
00:58:53mid caps and the small caps, that's where the pain has been. But even in the mid cap space,
00:58:57by the way, from the lows of the day, we've come off. I wonder if the small caps are showing the
00:59:02same kind of resilience a little bit, if you will, not as low as they were. So maybe just maybe
00:59:08the breadth, too, is improved a wee little bit. But clearly, the advanced decline ratio shifted
00:59:14within the first one hour of trade and then stayed broad. But yes, a little bit of closure
00:59:19relative to the worst performance that we had at some time in the last one, one and a half hours
00:59:24of trade. But let's bring up the heat map and show you what's moving and what's not. A lot of red
00:59:30with PSUs taking it on the chin today. Coal India, BPCL, ONGC, there is a bit of weakness in IT today
00:59:38with TCS, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech and some of the others also in the red, but more green than red.
00:59:48NTPC, an odd one out in the PSU pack. Kotak Bank, there is Nestle, Titan, Tata Consumer, Maruti.
00:59:56So FMCG has made its presence felt to an extent. Some consumption names out there like Titan 2
01:00:02featuring in that list and Select Auto with the likes of Maruti and Bajaj Auto being in the green.
01:00:08But PSUs certainly taking it on the chin. And Tamanna, a bit of a recovery for the broader
01:00:14end of the spectrum. A bit of a recovery, but I don't know how much we can take heart from it
01:00:20because the fact is that directionally, we are still seeing a tough time really in the markets.
01:00:26I mean, the Nifty definitely recovering to some extent. Banks in focus. Let's pull up sectoral
01:00:32indices. You have banks and financials, part of the saving grace, relatively speaking. IT showed
01:00:40some recovery earlier in the day after the knock it took, but slid back down. So those gains are
01:00:46not really holding. Private banks are doing relatively well. Let's just take you through the
01:00:51top losers on the BSE 500 and then I'll come to the top gainers. Vodafone and Indus stand out.
01:00:58Vodafone 19% down. Now the thing with the Vodafone story is considering that a lot was
01:01:05depending on this Supreme Court order. Can't say for sure that you will see this bloodbath ending
01:01:14tomorrow. So Vodafone in for more pain possibly. Indus Towers as a proxy. Radical Ketan seeing
01:01:21a pullback after jumping on the Andhra news. On the winning side, Garwari Tech doing okay.
01:01:27Century Textiles, United Breweries doing fine again because of the liquor policy in Andhra.
01:01:32So a mixed bag there. We'll have to wait and see what cues come in. Remember, Bank of England is
01:01:37the next big trigger to look out for. Do they follow the cues in terms of rate cuts? Are we
01:01:42seeing a shift in cycle and what does that mean for India will be the big theme going forward
01:01:47over the next few days. But that's all the time we have on India Market Close for now.
01:01:51Thank you so much for joining us. Stay tuned a lot more on the other side.
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