• 2 months ago
#Nifty, #Sensex trade near day's low as L&T, #TCS drag.


Tamanna Inamdar and Niraj Shah dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. 

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00:00:00India's tower, by proxy of the dues that Vodafone owes it, also falls. IIFL in a bit of trouble.
00:00:07It's going to be downgraded. This is a story that NDTV Profit broke. There's a chance that
00:00:12there could be up to 9000 employees that are sacked. That's seeing a big cut over there.
00:00:17Oil India, of course, is seeing pressure with the entire oil and gas pack. Defence plays
00:00:22also quite poor today. And look at HAL, they're facing the heat. On the upside, Garhwari Tech
00:00:30doing okay. I think a clutch of liquor stocks because of the Andhra policy that has come in.
00:00:34That's one of the few spaces where you're seeing some green. United Brewery is about 4% up.
00:00:40And apart from that, some of the NBFC or broader BFSI players will see an upside. But overall,
00:00:48Neeraj, I think the mood has soured a bit after the euphoria we saw in the morning.
00:00:52The broader end of the spectrum certainly showing that. I think individual portfolios would be
00:00:57hurting very, very badly. So I think that's the piece. And everything from wind equipment to CDMO
00:01:07to some of the tech businesses, a lot of real estate, a lot of these businesses are hurting
00:01:13and hurting very, very badly. So that is something that should worry investors for sure.
00:01:17Remember, telecom is a separate story and there are reasons and we'll, of course,
00:01:21just talk about telecom in great detail. But beyond that, I think there is an issue.
00:01:27And that is something that should worry people as well. Well, we'll get in our experts in just
00:01:31moments from now to talk about what to do in a scenario like this from a markets perspective.
00:01:36But we should get to the top story in just moments from now because the top story really is
00:01:40that the Supreme Court earlier today rejected the telecom operators plea seeking a recomputation of
00:01:48their gross adjusted gross revenues. Remember, Vodafone, Idea, Bharti, Airtel and various of
00:01:52the telcos had actually filed curative pleas against the 2019 top court verdict in the case.
00:01:58The question is, what does it mean now going ahead for some of the telcos? And what is the
00:02:03impact of such a move? My colleague Rucha first joins in to put this into perspective. Rucha,
00:02:08good afternoon. Good afternoon. Thank you. So I'll start with what are AGR dues? Well,
00:02:12these are the dues which are paid by the telecom companies to the government
00:02:16in return of using their spectrum license. Now government calculates this on the basis of total
00:02:21revenue, which includes revenue from telecom as well as non-telecom business. However,
00:02:26the telecom companies were really upset about this fact and they said that only revenue from
00:02:33telecom business should be included while calculating these dues. And then they filed
00:02:38various petition and plea against this kind of move by the government to various authorities.
00:02:44And the latest plea filed by Vodafone, Idea was in October 23. And today the Supreme Court has
00:02:50rejected that plea and said that the telecom companies are required to pay the AGR dues.
00:02:57But then we'll move on to the quantum of dues which are payable by Vodafone, Idea, Bharti,
00:03:02Airtel and Reliance Jio as well. We'll start with Vodafone, Idea. Now it owes around 70,300
00:03:08crore of dues to the government. Bharti, Airtel owes around 44,000 crore dues. Well, there's no
00:03:15major dues payable by Reliance Jio because it started in 2016 and has already paid their
00:03:20dues to the government. Now, moving on to the kind of cash that is lying on the balance sheet
00:03:24of these telecom companies. If we can move on to showing the cash, we'll see that Vodafone,
00:03:29Idea has around 535 crore of cash and Bharti, Airtel has 16,340 crore of cash. So a huge
00:03:37sort of asset liability mismatch is seen over here. But Bharti, Airtel has lower dues than
00:03:44Vodafone, Idea and higher sort of cash balance. So Bharti, Airtel is better positioned than
00:03:51Vodafone, Idea and Vodafone will be hit the most because of the rejection of plea by the Supreme
00:03:58Court. But then let's look at the kind of timeline going back in 2005 and 2006 when all this started
00:04:04where government took the decision of how AGR should be calculated and the telecom companies
00:04:08were upset and then in 2019 these telecom companies had filed a plea against this kind
00:04:14of decision taken by the government. And even moving ahead in 2020 and 21 telecom companies
00:04:23filed the plea but then it was rejected and Bharti, Airtel paid about 18,000 crore of dues
00:04:30and Vodafone, Idea paid about 7,800 crore of dues to the government. But as I rightly mentioned in
00:04:37October 23, Vodafone again filed a plea which was rejected by the Supreme Court today. So all in all
00:04:42just concluding, number one is that telecom companies will have to pay these dues to the
00:04:46government and number two is that Vodafone, Idea will be hit the most because of its huge asset
00:04:52liability mismatch over here. Back to you. Thank you for that Rucha and for putting that
00:04:56into perspective. Gurmeet Chadda joined us now, Managing Partner and CI of Complete Circle.
00:05:01Gurmeet, great to have you on the show and what's an important day. We're going to spend
00:05:05the first few minutes just focusing a bit on what happens to Vodafone from here on.
00:05:12I mean this is one stock which is a retail investor favourite, has had a whole host of
00:05:18different calls on it. In the last few weeks you've seen one brokerage house have a very,
00:05:24very positive view, one have a relatively negative view, both deeming it high risk.
00:05:30The worst case scenario in terms of risk has come to unfold you think for Vodafone?
00:05:38If you recollect our discussion on telecom some time back, I've been making this point that
00:05:43sometimes in the process of identifying turnaround stories, we missed something which was very
00:05:49evident, which was Bharti in the telecom. Look at the way Bharti has gone up. So issue I think
00:05:55which I've been reiterating is while the capital raise was positive for survival of Vodafone and
00:06:00some of the debt got converted into equity. But if you see, it was unlikely they could generate
00:06:06any fee cash flows for at least next four, five years. It also meant that they will do
00:06:12significantly lesser CapEx. Telecom is a CapEx intensive business. You need to continuously
00:06:16upgrade to different networks. They haven't even started on 5G technically in terms of offering
00:06:21that. I think they will continue to lose market share. And this recomputation plea being denied
00:06:31obviously is bad news in terms of any hopes which we had in terms of they coming back. Plus,
00:06:38you needed an ARPU of at least 240, 250 for them to come back on track. So it's a bit of
00:06:43a chicken egg situation. You need to focus on network, bring back people, then move up the ARPU
00:06:50and that unlikely is going to happen with negative cash flow position they have.
00:06:56And Bharti on the other hand, it continues to just do well. Industry leading ARPU at above 210.
00:07:02Look at the Airtel business, the Airtel home business, the digital TV portfolio,
00:07:07all seems to be doing well. And even Africa now seems to have stabilised. In fact,
00:07:11there could be one big trigger which is your home broadband. We have 21, 22 crore households
00:07:18currently. The penetration is just 2 crores. And if they can do the sachetisation they did
00:07:24in terms of prepaid connections in wireless, I think that could make internet penetration go up
00:07:31even further in Indian households. I think the better way to play telecom story is to play the
00:07:36telecom value chain. The best listed player technically now is Bharti. Then you have
00:07:42something like Tata Communications which has guided for 28,000 crores of revenue
00:07:47of which they are saying the data alone and the digital portfolio would be 60%.
00:07:51And they are talking of monetisation levers like real estate, data centres, etc,
00:07:56which they can use to fund this growth. And then you have something like maybe a Tejas network,
00:08:01which makes telecom equipment and networking equipment across the value chain, across
00:08:06customers, across the value chain. I think very gung-ho digital infrastructure story.
00:08:11No, no. That's true. But let me come back to Vodafone. You're right. You need to choose the
00:08:17right players. Maybe seeing the supply chain is a better idea. Bharti looking better off. And you
00:08:22can see that in the stock price where the AGR hit might not be that bad. But what to do with
00:08:27the Vodafone right now? That's the question. How much more of a freefall are you expecting? Because
00:08:33the only light on the horizon, if at all, is the conversion of dues by the government into equity.
00:08:40Would that be seen as a positive? Where does this pain end?
00:08:45See, I think I've been making this point that at some point of time, there could be equity
00:08:49dilution also. And, you know, because the net worth is negative. So, you know, my view is to
00:08:54have always been to avoid, till the time they get a very strong player, you know, who comes in
00:09:00infused not only just capital, but also, you know, you need a strategic investor with deep pockets,
00:09:06as well as, you know, the cutting edge tech abilities to bring any life to it. I think
00:09:11dues getting converted, dues getting delayed, government owning some stake. I mean, the
00:09:16government also owns BSNL with due respect. So, in my view, you know, as I said, the only
00:09:21trigger to me is significant – and I'm repeating the word – significant capital infusion and that
00:09:26to buy a static investor. As and when that comes in, I think that's the point you start to take an
00:09:31investment call around this. Right now, all we are doing is just speculating that, you know,
00:09:35this will happen, that will happen. That is not investing. That is speculating, in my view.
00:09:40Okay. Gurmeet, one quick word on Indus Towers and what happens thereof to that,
00:09:46because some part of that gain was also on the back of Vodafone completing its dues.
00:09:53Absolutely, Neeraj. And, you know, I think there is, I mean, the stock is showing that reaction
00:09:57today. Anything to do with, you know, the financial health of a company, which is your major client,
00:10:03you know, obviously. But I think, as I said, I honestly don't see survivor as an issue at this
00:10:09point of time. You know, I think there are two aspects we are discussing here. One is Vodafone
00:10:13surviving. Second is, you know, making an investment case out of it. So, I wasn't Gango a
00:10:20few years back. I'm not Gango even right now as an investment case. But I think in terms of
00:10:24survivorship, I think, I think the government is clear it doesn't want probably want a two-player,
00:10:29a duopoly in telecom. So, probably, we'll probably have a three-player, you know, or maybe
00:10:34two and a half if I want to call that. So, I think in Indus Tower, it could be, it could be temporary
00:10:39in terms of the movement there. But again, that's the rental part of the business needed in the
00:10:44telecom business. Tower is basically the rental part. I think the bigger value-add is in terms
00:10:49of the software part, the networking part, the telecom equipment part. And the way the world is,
00:10:54you know, we had a globalization last 10 years. Now you're probably looking at regional blocks,
00:10:58data security, et cetera, is becoming huge issues. So, you will see more and more CapEx
00:11:03happening by existing players across the value chain. And I think that's where I think there
00:11:07is more value in names like Tata Com, Tejas, and other digital infrastructure names in the
00:11:13entire value chain. Okay. Thank you so much, Gurveet, for joining in today. Gurveet Chadha
00:11:20talking about the big story today in the markets and really beyond the markets as well. Whether
00:11:26Vodafone does continue in any real way without the kind of crush that was supposed to come from
00:11:33this relief from the Supreme Court really remains to be seen. Probably the government will have to
00:11:38step in. Is that a good idea or not? Are all things that will be discussed down the line,
00:11:42but 18% down on the stock right now at 10 rupees 55 paise. Kush Bora and Rajesh Pal, we are with us
00:11:49on the show today. A very good afternoon to both of you and great to have you in.
00:11:54Kush, let's start with your calls on the index.
00:11:59Hi, first of all, very good afternoon to you and to all the viewers.
00:12:03Well, I want to say let's go out and buy Nifty, but there are a few factors that are just holding
00:12:08me back from a technical standpoint. It's not an entirely convincing move. I think that is
00:12:12also depicted by the fact that we did not hold anywhere close to the highs that we made.
00:12:17That said, the price action is completely different. We've been consolidating here
00:12:22for some time, but then the base is shifting higher, which is also evident by the derivatives
00:12:27data. So if you see the call-in put option data, very surprisingly, there is a put option buildup
00:12:35at the 2500 put option for the next week, which is an in-the-money put option.
00:12:39So that is suggesting that the market is fairly comfortable at or around these levels. So I think
00:12:47as far as the Nifty goes, until the supports are broken, which comes close to 25-150 zones,
00:12:55you should continue to hold your long positions. I won't go out and still make a very aggressive
00:12:59bet as a long position on the Nifty. So I'll hold my long position if I have one until the
00:13:04supports are broken. Bank Nifty, again, we've been very constructive on practically at the
00:13:11all-time high levels today. It was off that. But I think this momentum could very well continue.
00:13:16I think the next level to watch for on the Bank Nifty should be 53-500 once that is taken out,
00:13:2154-200. So if you want to create a long position, like we've been speaking about for the last week
00:13:27or so, that long position on the index should come in Bank Nifty. Okay. Well, Rajesh, in fact,
00:13:33that was going to be my question to you. Should one buy or sell the Bank Nifty currently? What
00:13:39is your call there on the Bank Nifty? No, Neeraj, only private sector banks
00:13:45are showing strength. So though Bank Nifty is trading about to their near-term breakout level
00:13:51of 52,500-600 zone and the put-based concentration is also placed around those levels. So looking at
00:13:58the data set up, yes, one can look to buy Bank Nifty around 52,800-500 kind of zone with stop-loss
00:14:06of 52,650. And on the higher side, once we are able to take out 53-200 zone,
00:14:14I think there could be a really towards 53-600 also. So Bank Nifty is also looking bullish at
00:14:22this moment, though some profit taking at higher level for mid-cap and small-cap space. But
00:14:27we believe that both indexes, Nifty, Bank Nifty are still holding the ground. And we believe once
00:14:32this supply pressure settles down, we could see continuation of up-move for Bank Nifty also.
00:14:37Possible target towards 53,500-600 we can see in next couple of days.
00:14:44Okay. So that's the call on the Nifty and the Nifty Bank. Now to specific stocks. Rajesh,
00:14:50I'll start with you first. What are your trading recommendations for the afternoon today?
00:14:57So first one is Voltas clear uptrend. Stock is enjoying its all-time high trajectory,
00:15:04the way stock is holding the ground at higher level. We believe that here we could see further
00:15:09more round of buying action and outperformance is likely to be there in the stock prices. Voltas is
00:15:14buy for upside target of 1960. Your stop-loss should be placed at 1895. Another stock is from
00:15:22the private bank that is ICICI Bank. This stock also managed to register a new all-time high
00:15:28trajectory. Outperformance is there in this stock. And the way stock is moving in higher top, higher
00:15:34bottom formation, that clearly shows a sustained buying action in the stock. So we believe that
00:15:40ICICI Bank may continue further more upside possible target towards 1340 we could see.
00:15:46And one can place a stop-loss around 1266 to buy ICICI Bank. Third stock is from FMCC Basket,
00:15:52that is Nestle. After a long underperformance and consolidation now stock managed to do breakout on
00:16:00the daily as well as on the weekly chart. The way stock has moved up in last couple of days,
00:16:06we believe that Nestle may extend its gain and the possible target towards 2710 to 2720.
00:16:13So Nestle is buy with stop-loss of 2615.
00:16:17Okay, so Nestle is a buy on 2615. A whole host of picks for you today on the show. But let's
00:16:25come to some of those buzzing stocks and get a view on that as well. Kush, let's talk about
00:16:31the elephant in the room, Vodafone and Indus Towers. If you're holding, what are you doing
00:16:37now as an investor? Apart from feeling a lot of pain,
00:16:43I think there is very little you can do now. I think idea, time and again, we've maintained,
00:16:49we've discussed that that's not one stock that you really want to trade or invest in. But then
00:16:54again, now if you, of course, there will always be contrarian players and people who are keen
00:16:59and interested. Now, if you are holding, it's not a bad idea to exit even at the current juncture.
00:17:05But if you want to give yourself that last glimmer of hope, then I think a support zone for this one
00:17:09is that 9.5 and 8. Those are the long term support zones that the stock has actually
00:17:16witnessed in the past. So maybe that could act as your stop loss, but not a bad idea to exit
00:17:20even now. As far as Indus Towers goes, here we've seen the dent, but we are seeing the recovery,
00:17:26as opposed to Vodafone idea, which continues to hit fresh lows for the day. In Indus Towers,
00:17:32we've seen a recovery. This is very close to the support zone of 375, 380. We are seeing the stock
00:17:38trade above that. This is one that you can hold. Your waiting period might perhaps be a little
00:17:42longer now, but this is still one stock that you can hold. 360 is a very strong support zone on
00:17:48this one. So if you've got a position, your trailing stop loss should come in at 360.
00:17:53So Vodafone still an exit and Indus Towers is a hold with a stop loss at 360.
00:18:00So Vodafone run now, even if you can. What about your picks for this afternoon, Kush?
00:18:06Sure. Two of them and I continue to maintain that hedged position with a long and a short call
00:18:12both. So Anantraj continues to do well even in today's session. If you see, there is buying and
00:18:18it's actually coming a little late in the day perhaps just when the show started. It's
00:18:22gained about a percent or so after that as well. So Anantraj on a very strong footing, 680, 699
00:18:30are your targets. 649 is where you place your stop loss. On the sell side, we've got Concur,
00:18:35we've discussed this sell call around 1000 levels also in the past. The stock is continuing to
00:18:41move on the downside, broken the 200 day moving average as well three sessions back and continues
00:18:46to slide lower. Now you're looking at the medium term support zone at 880, which should act as your
00:18:53second target. 895 being an intermediate target and the stop loss on this one comes in at 920.
00:18:58So Anantraj is a buy and a Concur is a sell. Okay. Anantraj is a buy, Concur is a sell and
00:19:05those are sort of the topics that we have this afternoon. But let's shift focus. We have a
00:19:13superb speaker to talk to us right now. Rahul Bajori of Bofa Securities. We'll be talking to
00:19:18him in a few minutes from now, but an important day because remember the big event that we've
00:19:23been waiting for, which is the Fed cut is now behind us, better than what was expected,
00:19:29a 50 basis points. Markets have absorbed it, celebrated and then now taken a break.
00:19:34That's what's been happening really on the index and like Kush said a short while ago,
00:19:39is keen to go long but a little hesitant on the nifty because of what's happening. A bigger cut
00:19:46really in the broader markets. Look at what's happening with the mid cap and small cap index
00:19:50seeing a bout of pain that's going even further than that. I'm going to come to you Rajesh on
00:19:57some of the stocks that are buzzing today and let's look at some of the liquor players,
00:20:01Radico, you know, Tilak Nagar, all of them running up and then losing their gains completely. On the
00:20:10charts technically is that story also done? Tilak Nagar industry is off its highest but
00:20:14still at least in the green. UBL, any of those that you like?
00:20:20I think most of the stocks have attracted the profit booking, be it Radico, United,
00:20:25Split and other stocks. So I think most of these stocks have run up quite well in last couple of
00:20:32week and the way market is also showing some bit of profit taking from the higher level. So I think
00:20:38it's in line with the market behaviour. Though if we analyse on the structure for Radico,
00:20:44it's still stock is holding the strength on the long term to medium term chart. I think in this
00:20:50correction, again, if it's stocks comes around 2060, that's the important support area for the
00:20:55stock in the decline. So I think wait for another 2-3% kind of correction in the stock and if it's
00:21:02hold about 2060, I think some pullback action we could see from those levels. Even in the United
00:21:09Split, we have seen a very strong run up and some corrective move is happening in this stock. Stock
00:21:15is still holding above its near term, short term moving averages. So I think, again, in this
00:21:21correction, United Split is again giving you opportunity to buy the stock. One should wait
00:21:27for the level of 1500 and that's the important level in this correction. I think around those
00:21:33levels, one can start buying in this stock and possibly again, stock may resume its uptrend.
00:21:40So at this juncture, we will keep stop loss of around 1470 to buy United Split also in this
00:21:47decline. All right, Rahul Bajoria with us, Head of India Asian Economic Research at Bofast
00:21:56Securities. Rahul, great to speak with you and congratulations on the new gig. Great to speak
00:22:03to you after you've joined this position and on a good day, important day to understand what's
00:22:09happening with global economy, what's next for the Indian economy, etc. So let's start with that.
00:22:14The Fed has started the process. The baton now moves to Bank of England, Bank of Japan.
00:22:20When do you think the Reserve Bank of India jumps in with the rate cut?
00:22:25Thank you, Tamanna, for your wishes. So I think at this point in time, the guidance from the RBI
00:22:32has been fairly clear. The governor has been sort of indicating that they are still not done
00:22:38with the last mile management of inflation. And as the target alignment is in sight,
00:22:46I think we are going to see maybe a shift in the policy communication in the last quarter
00:22:51of the year. So we think that while October is unlikely to be a live meeting, December is the
00:22:58first instance where we could see a small rate cut cycle begin. We think that inflation appears
00:23:04to be reasonably well in check and growth also cyclically seems to be softening a bit.
00:23:08And that kind of sets the tone for the RBI also to move. But then it is going to be a much shallower
00:23:14rate cutting cycle in India than what we are likely to see elsewhere. When you say shallower,
00:23:21what do you mean? What are you pencilling in for the rest of this year, Rahul?
00:23:27So in the current fiscal year, we think 50 basis points looks like a reasonable assessment. So
00:23:32that kind of takes us from 6.5% to 6% by the February meeting. And then we think that the
00:23:39RBI again will look at the supply side dynamics, wait for the monsoon cycle to play out. And if
00:23:44monsoons are normal as we are entering a La Nina cycle, then maybe another 50 basis points in the
00:23:49next fiscal year by December 2025, which takes you to a neutralish kind of a rate at 5.5%,
00:23:56which I think is the right level for a country which is looking at 7% trend growth and around
00:24:014% inflation. In terms of economic outlook, and let me come to some of the points that
00:24:07were made by the Federal Reserve in that meeting, focus now for them at least shifts more on labour
00:24:15market rather than inflation as an issue. Will further 50 basis point cuts, at least in the rest
00:24:24of this calendar year, drive more flows towards India? How do you see the flows and India equation
00:24:30in light of what we've heard? Yeah, so I think if we sort of take a view
00:24:35of what's happening in the US, there clearly seems to be an emphasis on kind of trying to
00:24:41recalibrate the monetary policy to where the state of the economy is. And we do think that a front
00:24:50loaded rate cutting cycle is quite likely. So we are looking for another 75 basis points of cuts
00:24:55in the US in the next quarter. So that's 150 basis point and 125 basis point depending on
00:25:00the incoming data and then another 125 basis points of cuts next calendar year. So you are
00:25:05going to see a reasonably large cutting cycle now in context of what it does to India. I just came
00:25:11back from the US, the feedback on India remains fairly and very comprehensively positive as far
00:25:17as structural flows into the economy is concerned. The lack of currency appreciation does make
00:25:23people a little bit reluctant to kind of really put their alpha to work in India right now.
00:25:27But I think from a structural standpoint, you know, flows both in equity and debt markets are
00:25:32likely to continue. And we probably see a fairly strong BOP position both this fiscal year and
00:25:38next fiscal year. So I don't think that the investment outlook is going to change materially,
00:25:43what you probably end up seeing is just a timing of it might be a little bit more
00:25:47backloaded in the context of where the rate cycle in US pushes flows into emerging markets.
00:25:53Rahul, good afternoon, Neeraj here. I heard you say that it will be a shallower cycle.
00:25:59And maybe you responded to that, but I would still want a pointed answer if you will.
00:26:04What is your sense? Do we see action in India in October? Do we see December? Do we see Feb?
00:26:09Or is it difficult to call that right now? No, I think our baseline is that December is
00:26:14the first meeting where you know, you will probably see a rate cut coming through in India.
00:26:19We are expecting only 50 basis points in this fiscal year, which is kind of getting priced in
00:26:24as far as say the fixed income markets are concerned. But next year, also, we think there's
00:26:28room to cut rates by 50 basis points in India. You know, so you're going to not see India move
00:26:35in line with what's happening with the Fed. I don't think that's ever been the case in the
00:26:39last few hiking and cutting cycles. But then with inflation aligning itself closer to 4%,
00:26:45aligning itself closer to 4% than we have seen in the last few years,
00:26:50there is no real need to keep real rates very elevated as it is right now. And credit growth
00:26:55is coming off as well. So you know, you are seeing signs of RBI also kind of coming to a point where
00:27:01rates can be recalibrated slightly lower. Not a need to like really cut,
00:27:06but you know, kind of recalibrated slightly to the new economic realities.
00:27:11Well, great to speak with you as always, and look forward to chatting with you soon. Rahul
00:27:16Bajoria there. The Bofa view on interest rate cuts, we might see 50 basis points
00:27:22as far as India is concerned in this financial year. So not quite as aggressive,
00:27:27but that will be the next big trigger as far as markets are also concerned from our perspective.
00:27:32Time for a very short break. On the other side, we get you the top
00:27:35BTSD ideas. Stay tuned for that and a lot more.
00:29:35Thank
00:30:05you.
00:30:35Thank
00:31:06you.
00:31:29All right, welcome back. You're watching India Market Close. Just about half hour to go to
00:31:33a day of trade that started out much more positive than it's ending. A little bit of
00:31:38concern there coming in, creeping in definitely. Neeraj Diwan joining us, independent market expert.
00:31:43Neeraj, hi. Great to have you on the show. I want to take your view on the kind of hit
00:31:49we have seen in BFSI stocks and relatively better, the bank nifty now coming off.
00:31:57Just want to understand from the point of view of Fed impact really getting baked in,
00:32:02how would you look at some of these and what would be your topics here?
00:32:06Yeah, hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for having me on the show. I think the BFSI space is one which
00:32:12should be positively impacted by the Fed rate cut and somewhere down the line, maybe toward the end
00:32:17of the year, maybe RBI may also follow suit. So I think BFSI space, you can go with a large cap
00:32:24name according to my understanding, because that is where you still have comfort. If you look at
00:32:30AGC bank or a Quotec bank or ICC bank, you still have that valuation comfort. You can go somewhere
00:32:37down and look at some private sector banks like IDFC first bank also. So you have comfort across
00:32:44this segment. So I think you can take your pick from the large caps. And I think at these
00:32:49valuations which they are trading at, I think with the one, one and a half year view, you can
00:32:54make a decent return. Neeraj, what's the view on some of the NBFCs? I mean, Bajaj housing finance
00:33:03listing has created quite a stir. The stock is down today. And a lot of people might be
00:33:08thinking that, oh, this is the dip that we need to get into. But it is an expensive stock for sure.
00:33:14So which side are you tilting on fundamentally? Good afternoon.
00:33:18Yeah, good afternoon. You know that we are always seeing fundamentals. For us,
00:33:22valuation is very important. We'll not go chase some stock just because market is
00:33:29chasing it or it's from a very renowned corporate house. Valuations is what ultimately matters. So
00:33:37at 150, 160, at more than five and a half, six times price to book, I will not be really chasing
00:33:46Bajaj housing finance. And I would look at other options which are still available at feasible
00:33:51two and a half, three times. So for a, even for a good corporate growing housing finance,
00:33:56you know, I would not really like to give, you know, three, three and a half, four times to the
00:34:00maximum. So at this valuation, definitely I'll not be looking at Bajaj housing finance.
00:34:05Okay. So you're not looking at Bajaj housing finance either. Valuations now becoming
00:34:11uncomfortable. But one company in that space, which is getting quite a bit of heat is IIFL
00:34:17finance. And this is an NDTV profit exclusive. They may face a ratings downgrade on delays in
00:34:22removal of the RBI embargo. Rating agencies have conducted a review recently. What we're learning
00:34:29is that there is an issue owing to low tenure of gold loans. As of August, gold loans were at around
00:34:3712,000 crore rupees on their book. IIFL finance may undergo layoffs if bans persist. There is
00:34:44one figure out there saying that you could have layoffs of at least 9,000 people. IFL finance
00:34:50already is in the process of laying off employees in unprofitable areas. And there are at least
00:34:54four to five gold loan employees each in 2,700 branches. The company has provided a compliance
00:35:02report to RBI in August. Now the story broken by my colleague Vishwanath Nair. Now for that,
00:35:08look at what's happened to the stock. I mean, the context of this, of course, that in March this
00:35:13year, RBI had ordered IFL finance to stop lending against gold with immediate effect. And that
00:35:19situation doesn't really seem to have changed much for IFL finance and hence the ratings downgrade,
00:35:25which could be around the corner. Neeraj, just wanted to understand if you're looking at this
00:35:30stock in this space? The stock looked oversold yesterday also. Because after the ban, the stock
00:35:39is really corrected. I think till you get more clarity on the bad news, the ban still continues.
00:35:44And if there's a rating downgrade, that can be double whammy for them. I think better to avoid
00:35:49it for the time being, get some more clarity. Once this is settled and you have clarity, and then
00:35:53only, even if it's a little higher, it doesn't matter. But you enter into the stock only once
00:35:58you have clarity on this gold loan issue and the ratings issue. Rajesh, are you looking at IFL
00:36:05finance? Any value there at these levels? I think some recovery is taking place in this
00:36:15stock in last couple of weeks. Stock is now struggling to cross its immediate supply zone,
00:36:20which is based at around 530 kind of zone. So until the stock not crosses those levels,
00:36:26some consolidation we can see for some more time. And on the breakout of 540,
00:36:33there is a possibility of 600 kind of target on the higher side. But on the downside,
00:36:38the immediate and important support is placed at around 466. So I think 466 to 520 would be the
00:36:45consolidation range for some more time. And either side breakout will decide the
00:36:49major direction for the stock. Okay. Well, so that's IFL finance.
00:36:56It's difficult to get the calls on Bajaj housing finance from a technical perspective,
00:37:01but it might be easier to do that on the liquor names, though I think we've discussed some of
00:37:06those. But fundamentally, what would this mean? Let's first understand the issue in detail. Chandra
00:37:10Bamu Naidu-led Andhra government has cleared a new liquor policy, which has adopted a more
00:37:14private retail system. Mahima Johnson, what this means for some of the alcohol players? Mahima,
00:37:19good afternoon. That is the policies aiming at quality, quantity and price. Now this comes after
00:37:27in 2019, Andhra Pradesh had almost banned buying alcohol from branded companies.
00:37:33And people did face serious repercussions after this. Their health got deteriorated. And after
00:37:38this, a new excise policy has come out and all liquor brands will be made available. And this
00:37:43will be from 1st of October. And private shops will also be allocated through a lottery system
00:37:48and a non-refundable fee of 2 lakh will be paid for this. 13 premium shops will be set up across
00:37:53state, excluding Tirupati, of course. And the alcohol from all brands will be made available
00:37:59just at Rs. 99 for every 180 ml is what the policy says. Now, a couple of companies that could
00:38:07benefit from this, because even before 2019, these companies were major suppliers in Andhra
00:38:12Pradesh. It's United Spirits, United Breweries, Tilaknagar Industries and Radico Khetan. Tilaknagar
00:38:18Industries has recently launched a new brandy in Andhra Pradesh. And it had acquired Prague
00:38:24distilleries in Andhra Pradesh between 2008 and 2014. And since then, it is operating from that
00:38:30particular distillery in Andhra Pradesh. And roughly in FY24, the distillery had a revenue
00:38:36share from that distillery increased by 34%. And it has a capacity of over 6 lakh cases per year.
00:38:43The next one is United Breweries, where volumes in Q1 were largely driven by
00:38:47Andhra Pradesh and it had an operating capacity of 30% only because of the ban.
00:38:53But going forward, of course, the new excise policy will benefit United Breweries because
00:38:59historically, Kingfisher has had a share of 75% almost from Andhra Pradesh. And United Brewery
00:39:04eyes revenue increase with this new liquor policy is what the MD has already said. And lastly,
00:39:10Radico Khetan also has bottling units in Andhra Pradesh. So all of these
00:39:14companies and stocks will be in focus on the back of this.
00:39:17Okay. Thanks, Mahima. Neeraj, there's a bit of a sell the news happening here.
00:39:24But intuitively, this should be positive. Are you constructive liquor, the businesses?
00:39:32Yeah, actually, we are constructive liquor. I also like some of these companies,
00:39:37which I think though you've seen some movement in the stock already happening.
00:39:41One stock that I was looking at was Global Spirits because that stock had corrected a lot.
00:39:45And once there was some improvement in the availability of raw material,
00:39:49you saw some more happening that stock has already moved, I think 30-40% in the last
00:39:56month or so. So I think that is the case from a lot of other liquor companies also.
00:40:01If one has a longer term perspective, I think even
00:40:05at these valuations, even at the current prices,
00:40:08the stocks do have value over a 1-1.5 year period. Short term, I'm not too sure because
00:40:14they've seen a move. So there may be some consolidation, some profit taking down the line.
00:40:18But over 1-1.5 years, I think still there's value in liquor stocks.
00:40:23Okay. And Kush, what is your sense? Anything that is bottling out or anything that you would go out
00:40:28and trade on the short side in this liquor space? Not on the short side. I mean, if I
00:40:34have to pick a short call in this space, then it will be United Spirits. And the only reason being
00:40:38that we are seeing some negative divergences, but that's already playing out. So you wouldn't want
00:40:42to do that. In fact, I take this dip in Radico Khaitan as a buying opportunity. The stock was
00:40:48already in an overheated territory, perhaps waiting for a trigger to correct. It's a sharp
00:40:53correction today, but I think that's a bit of a healthy sign for the stock. Now, if you do want
00:40:58to wait and give it one more day, then I would just wait up until the level of 2060, 2070. If
00:41:04you do get it around those levels, then the entry point is very attractive and does make for a good
00:41:09buy from those levels. United Breweries is also a good buy at the current juncture. The only
00:41:15challenge is that 2150 has been a bit of a resistance in the near term. But given what's
00:41:20happening in the broader market, in the liquor space, I think that we will take this move where
00:41:25the stock is now resisting close to that 2150 mark. With the kind of volumes that you're seeing,
00:41:29I won't be surprised that in the coming days, the stock breaks this resistance band and moves
00:41:34towards 20 to 100 and perhaps even 20 to 50 kind of levels. So United Breweries and Radico Khaitan,
00:41:40slightly different fortunes for the day. But I think both seem like a good buy for different
00:41:46reasons at the moment. Okay, Radico Khaitan down 6% now after all of that euphoria. But the stock,
00:41:53which hasn't let up since this morning, is NTPC, buzzing today since its subsidiary
00:42:00NTPC Green Energy has filed for an initial public offer. The reason is also because NTPC shareholders
00:42:07will get some advantage in applying for the offer, and which is why you're seeing that
00:42:12buzz coming in. Mehika joining us to give us more details of the IPO and what the potential market
00:42:17cap of the company will be. NTPC is buzzing in trade because its renewable energy arm NTPC Green
00:42:25Energy has filed for its IPO yesterday and the company will be raising 10,000 crore via an
00:42:29initial public offering, which will only consist of a fresh issue. And majority of the proceeds
00:42:33will be used for debt repayment and general corporate purposes. Now when you talk about the
00:42:37valuations of the companies, well, let's first start with the listed peers. The company has
00:42:41two listed peers. One is Adani Green Energy and Renew Energy Global. When you look at the EV to
00:42:46EBITDA multiples of this company, Adani Green trades at a 50.9 EV to EBITDA multiple and Renew
00:42:51Energy Global at 13.73. So when you take the average of these two, it comes to 32. And when
00:42:56you talk about the potential financials in FY25 for NTPC Green Energy, well, Q1, the company made
00:43:01around 650 crores of revenue. So based on this run rate, it could see revenues of around 2,600
00:43:09in FY25 and a 2,300 crore EBITDA in FY25 if it maintains its FY24 margins of 88%.
00:43:17So when you talk about the potential market capitalization, it could stand around 75,000
00:43:21crores because taking the consideration of the 32 EV to EBITDA multiple with the FY25 estimated
00:43:27EBITDA. And this could lead to a potential equity dilution of around 13% equity, which comes up to
00:43:33around 100 crore equity shares. The company has a total outstanding share capital of 750 crore
00:43:39equity shares. Okay. So that's one of the reasons why NTPC is in full flush today. Kush,
00:43:45let me come to you on NTPC on the charts first, still standing strong at 2.5% up
00:43:50in a market which otherwise has lost some steam.
00:43:55Absolutely. And it's not a bad buy. It says that it's not a typical trader counter. I mean,
00:43:59today the stock would have seen a fair degree of upside and then pulled off from there. But I think
00:44:04this is the one for a positional bet, a medium term kind of an entry. So NTPC, you can consider
00:44:11at the current juncture as well, very neatly placed. This is the second time this is testing
00:44:17the 420, 425 kind of levels on the back of very strong volumes for a very obvious reason. I think
00:44:24on the downside, you can place your stop loss and this is a positional one close to 405 levels.
00:44:29On the upside, the stock could very well test 440 and 460 kind of zone. It's just that you would
00:44:34want to stay in this for some time, let's say a couple of months. Don't take this as an immediate
00:44:39PTSD or a very short term trading bet. Be in this for some time.
00:44:45Okay. Neeraj, what do you make of the bars in NTPC? And then of course, I'll come to you on
00:44:50the whole IPO excitement and NTPC green. But let's talk about the NTPC stock right now.
00:44:56I think today they're buying industry because people are buying it to be part of the shareholder
00:45:02quota so they can apply for the NTPC green IPO. Otherwise, the stock has run up a lot. So I agree
00:45:09that this is a very good long term bet. And this one is holding it, you should hold on
00:45:14the stock for a longer time. But I think for entry opportunities, one can wait and
00:45:20get a little better opportunities, some consolidation, some correction.
00:45:25I don't think one should be chasing it. And to get an IPO as a shareholder, you just need to buy
00:45:32one share, two shares, you get that shareholder reference. But otherwise, good long term bet.
00:45:39But then for the shorter term, I think the move will happen and it may consolidate around these
00:45:44levels. It may not give you that kind of return over the next six, eight months, but
00:45:49for one to two years, three years, definitely it's a very good investment.
00:45:53And are you at all excited about the NTPC green IPO, Neeraj?
00:45:59Yes, definitely. I think that that will be also pure green power play. So depending on what
00:46:06value should come there, I think there will be a lot of excitement. And normally we've seen that
00:46:11such kind of IPO, which they do leave something for the investor when they come to the IPO. So
00:46:19I'm sure that they will also be leaving something on the table and there will be a lot of interest
00:46:24in this IPO. The parent companies, there are at least five or six parent companies right now,
00:46:31which have IPOs coming. So just the point that Neeraj Dhawan made, and I'm just going to come
00:46:36to it in a bit of detail. Basically you have shareholder quotas in IPOs and that makes it
00:46:43very interesting because if you have an IPO coming, then people come in and buy that company
00:46:49in hope of that shareholder quota, right? That's what's happening with NTPC. You will see that
00:46:54happening with Hero as well, because Hero FinCorp IPO is expected to come. Tata Motors at some point
00:47:02will be having off its electric mobility. So there's an opportunity there. Mannapuram Finance,
00:47:09Muthud are some of the others who are expecting to bring IPOs and hence you are seeing this kind
00:47:15of an enthusiasm just as a play there, Neeraj. Do you think that makes sense as a strategy?
00:47:23Yeah, it depends on what company you're talking about. Like NTPC is a very good investment
00:47:28otherwise also. So even if you're investing in it and get a shareholder quota in the NTPC green,
00:47:35IPO is definitely good. But it depends on what company, like Tata Motors, maybe one needs to
00:47:42look at what is happening to the EV space currently in the shorter term. So you have to
00:47:47really see where... If you just need a shareholder quota, you can just apply, you can just take one,
00:47:54two, five shares. But to really invest in a company,
00:47:58we need to look at the valuation of the parent company and then only get into it.
00:48:04Okay. So, all right, be selective if you're trying to see that parent company play. But remember,
00:48:10today's a day where we are still absorbing the response to the Fed outcome and wondering what
00:48:16to do next. The financial space can do extremely well, according to Gautam Shah from Goldilocks
00:48:21Premium Research. Listen in to his topics.
00:48:29The pockets that we continue to like would be pharma and IT. I know IT had a down day yesterday,
00:48:34but overall structurally, we remain very, very bullish. And the two other spaces which I see
00:48:38are potential big winners over the next three to six months, first would be metals. I think we've
00:48:44seen an excellent comeback in the last five to seven days. And with what's happened yesterday
00:48:48in the US, I just feel that the metals index is ready for a breakout past 9600. Once that
00:48:54confirmation happens, we are looking at a thousand point move on the metals index.
00:48:58And chemicals, very quietly over the last six weeks, we've seen a nice rebound in all the
00:49:02top stocks. Look at the Deepak Nitrate, look at the Tirumalai Chemicals. Many of these names have
00:49:08done very well. So that's, again, a pocket that we like. And not to forget FMCG. ITC is quietly
00:49:14sustaining above 500, Godrej Consumer, Hindustan Unilever. So these are the pockets that we like.
00:49:21And wondering if those pockets have some strength
00:49:25fundamentally as well. So that's the other question. Would you buy? Because I think
00:49:30Gautam spoke about this. Rajesh Palia spoke about Nestle. Kush spoke about an FMCG stock today or
00:49:36yesterday. Niraj Dewan, is it prudent to buy a large FMCG company as an investment right now,
00:49:44or are there other pockets available? I think there are other pockets available. If you look
00:49:50at FMCG also, if we looked at this four, five months back, March, April, when you were getting
00:49:58Hindustan Unilever at 22, 23 hundred rupees, we're getting Britannia at 5000 odd. But that
00:50:04was the time to really accumulate those kinds of stocks. You already got the return and you can hold
00:50:08on to it. But to make a fresh entry after seeing this kind of run in the last three, four months
00:50:13only, you may get frustrated buying them at these levels. And then you may hold on to them for six
00:50:20months, eight months without too much of a return when other markets may give you better returns.
00:50:25So I think IT, I agree. IT has run up, but still there is something which has happened
00:50:31globally. This event which has happened is the US Fed rate cut will have an impact on that space
00:50:36also. And they're like the statement that is coming from the US, but the economy is still
00:50:41resilient, still doing well. So IT in this space, even after the run up that we've seen over the
00:50:47last month or so, month or two months, still I think has that valuation comfort and you can still
00:50:53get a return from these levels. But FMCG, I think has seen that run up and I don't see, maybe there
00:50:59can be some up move because monsoons were good and inflation in India may come down a little bit
00:51:06more. So they may get some impact because of that. But I think some of the major moves happened for
00:51:12this year at least. Okay. So those are some of the topics that you need to look at at this point.
00:51:21But we'll come to the BTST calls for tomorrow, just about 10 minutes to go. And Rajesh, let me
00:51:29start with you on what do you think would be the top calls for our viewers watching right now,
00:51:34what would be your top trades for tomorrow? So another banking stock where we are focusing,
00:51:40that is Kotec Bank, again from the private sector bank and the way Kotec Bank is moving
00:51:45in upsloping channel on daily chart and stock comfortably holding all its near term moving
00:51:50averages. We believe that this stock has potential again to surpass its previous swing high of July
00:51:592024. And the way stock has moved up in last couple of days, Kotec Bank can be looked at to buy
00:52:06upside target 1930-1940. Stop loss can be placed at 18550. Second stock is Oberoi Realty. Stock is
00:52:17holding about to its breakout on weekly chart that has happened in the last week itself.
00:52:24And the way stock has formed a base, we believe here we can see a good traction on the buying side
00:52:30and possible target towards 1880 we can see in Oberoi Realty. So here also one can deploy some
00:52:36long trade with stop loss of 1820. And the third one is Max Health. Falling trend line breakout has
00:52:44taken place in this stock and the way stock has shown strength on a weekly as well as on the daily
00:52:50chart. We believe that Max Health can extend its gain. 1020-1030 would be the next target.
00:52:56Keep your stop loss around 975.
00:53:20But optimist hiding behind that realist also.
00:53:25I fall in that camp. I fall in that camp. There is money to be made on both sides of the market,
00:53:31isn't there? So if you're looking for a BTSC, then I think that trade is done for the day. We
00:53:36spoke about Anantraj. The stock is up a percent and a half. 680 was the first target. The stock is
00:53:42well and truly above that. So if you're looking for a BTSC trade, I think you could just perhaps
00:53:46take some money home, enjoy that profit. If not, you could hold that for the target of 699.
00:53:51Now, as far as the trade for tomorrow goes, it's an STB team. The mood of the market isn't really
00:53:56all that encouraging and the indices don't really tell that complete picture.
00:54:00Coal India is a stock that I have on the short side. Concord, we've already discussed.
00:54:05Coal India is a stock that you might want to consider as a hedged position on the short side.
00:54:09The downward target here is 470 and 465. The stop-loss is 485. And this is purely an STBT call.
00:54:16If the stop-loss is hit, you're better off exiting this. The stock might traverse from there. But
00:54:21from a near-term STBT perspective, Coal India 470, 465 are the target, and 485 is where you
00:54:27place that stop-loss. So do keep an eye out for this as well. Those are good levels. So
00:54:37485 stop-loss, and the target is 465. The current is about 477.
00:54:43Your PSUs have taken a bit of a stick. Niraj Deewan, come in on this.
00:54:47Oil prices fall. It should be negative for upstream, positive for downstream.
00:54:53Now, we're seeing upstream correcting, but we're seeing downstream correcting as well.
00:54:58I mean, since the time oil has receded sub-70, HPPP IOC has actually been in the red. Why so?
00:55:07I think oil needs to stay according to my understanding. I'm not an oil and gas expert,
00:55:13but according to my understanding, between 70 and 80 is when it's good for the marketing companies
00:55:18also because they also have to keep a margin. So I think below that, the margins also shrink
00:55:24an absolute value. I think above 70 and between 70 and 75 is good for oil marketing companies.
00:55:33If it is going close to 80 and above, then of course, the ONGCs and all tend to benefit.
00:55:40But I think 70 or close to 70 is somewhere where both upstream or downstream get a little cautious
00:55:48as far as profitability is concerned. Serious pullbacks today into some of
00:55:55these stocks. Rajesh, BP, HP, IOC, and particularly BPCR, which is down about 4%.
00:56:00Are there more downsides here or are they bottoming out?
00:56:05No. Still, we may see furthermore supply pressure as stock is now broken. It's a 50-day
00:56:12moving average support area. And again, the previous swing low of August is also broken.
00:56:19So I think we may see furthermore correction in the stock if it's sustained below to 3.30
00:56:25kind of level. Possible downside can extend to the level of 3.18, 3.15 kind of level. So I think
00:56:32again, one should revisit around those levels, whether the stock is able to hold out those
00:56:37support areas or not. But for the long term, yes, the stock structure is bullish, but near-term
00:56:41structure is suggesting some more pressure we could see in the continuation of this down move.
00:56:48Okay. Well, gentlemen, all of you, thank you so much for taking the time out and being with us
00:56:53and giving us your thoughts. Really appreciate your time this afternoon. And by the way, speaking
00:56:57of global opinion as well, we spoke to Harold Vander Linn of HSBC, and rate cuts in the US,
00:57:04according to him, could be net positive for emerging markets. But even with investments
00:57:10in Japanese market schooling, the money may not necessarily flow into India. This is his view.
00:57:16Listen into a slice of the conversation that we had with him.
00:57:19So the view is that these rate cuts will be positive for emerging market assets. And we like
00:57:24risk. Emerging markets is more risky than developed markets. So that's good. And what you're going to
00:57:29see is that because it doesn't make as much sense now to keep money in money market deposits anymore
00:57:34in the US, you want to put money somewhere else. And equities and Asian equities will fit into that
00:57:40as well. In addition to that, what we also see is that appetite for the Japanese market is cooling.
00:57:47And so you see the money is coming out of Japan. It doesn't have to go into Asia. Could be
00:57:52going somewhere else as well. But that's something to keep in mind as well. So there
00:57:55are two sort of dynamics that is good for Asian markets. And then the question is, of course,
00:58:00will they go to India? But the funny thing is that for global fund managers,
00:58:06they're underweight on India. That's got nothing to do with their view on India that has been
00:58:11negative or so. On the contrary, most of them are positive. It's just that they feel uncomfortable
00:58:17with the high valuations. And local investors have bought up that market. So they've pushed
00:58:22the foreign investors out. Well, Harold van der Linde mentioned about how valuations are
00:58:28probably a concern. OK, let's start wrapping up the markets. It deserves a full two and a half
00:58:33minutes today simply because of the way it's behaved. Started off well. Rate cuts are behind
00:58:38us, but there is a bit of a sulking that's happening. You would argue that this may be a
00:58:43day's plan as well, that the bias probably still is towards the upside, at least in the short term.
00:58:49But today we've seen the broader markets really cracking in trade, because if you look at the
00:58:53mid caps and the small caps, that's where the pain has been. But even in the mid cap space,
00:58:57by the way, from the lows of the day, we've come off. I wonder if the small caps are showing the
00:59:02same kind of resilience a little bit, if you will, not as low as they were. So maybe just maybe
00:59:08the breadth, too, is improved a wee little bit. But clearly, the advanced decline ratio shifted
00:59:14within the first one hour of trade and then stayed broad. But yes, a little bit of closure
00:59:19relative to the worst performance that we had at some time in the last one, one and a half hours
00:59:24of trade. But let's bring up the heat map and show you what's moving and what's not. A lot of red
00:59:30with PSUs taking it on the chin today. Coal India, BPCL, ONGC, there is a bit of weakness in IT today
00:59:38with TCS, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech and some of the others also in the red, but more green than red.
00:59:48NTPC, an odd one out in the PSU pack. Kotak Bank, there is Nestle, Titan, Tata Consumer, Maruti.
00:59:56So FMCG has made its presence felt to an extent. Some consumption names out there like Titan 2
01:00:02featuring in that list and Select Auto with the likes of Maruti and Bajaj Auto being in the green.
01:00:08But PSUs certainly taking it on the chin. And Tamanna, a bit of a recovery for the broader
01:00:14end of the spectrum. A bit of a recovery, but I don't know how much we can take heart from it
01:00:20because the fact is that directionally, we are still seeing a tough time really in the markets.
01:00:26I mean, the Nifty definitely recovering to some extent. Banks in focus. Let's pull up sectoral
01:00:32indices. You have banks and financials, part of the saving grace, relatively speaking. IT showed
01:00:40some recovery earlier in the day after the knock it took, but slid back down. So those gains are
01:00:46not really holding. Private banks are doing relatively well. Let's just take you through the
01:00:51top losers on the BSE 500 and then I'll come to the top gainers. Vodafone and Indus stand out.
01:00:58Vodafone 19% down. Now the thing with the Vodafone story is considering that a lot was
01:01:05depending on this Supreme Court order. Can't say for sure that you will see this bloodbath ending
01:01:14tomorrow. So Vodafone in for more pain possibly. Indus Towers as a proxy. Radical Ketan seeing
01:01:21a pullback after jumping on the Andhra news. On the winning side, Garwari Tech doing okay.
01:01:27Century Textiles, United Breweries doing fine again because of the liquor policy in Andhra.
01:01:32So a mixed bag there. We'll have to wait and see what cues come in. Remember, Bank of England is
01:01:37the next big trigger to look out for. Do they follow the cues in terms of rate cuts? Are we
01:01:42seeing a shift in cycle and what does that mean for India will be the big theme going forward
01:01:47over the next few days. But that's all the time we have on India Market Close for now.
01:01:51Thank you so much for joining us. Stay tuned a lot more on the other side.
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