North Carolina Turning BLUE GUARANTEES Kamala Harris a Landslide VICTORY
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00:00Hey everyone, welcome back to another exciting video titled, If North Carolina Flips Blue,
00:05Kamala Harris Will Become the Next President of the United States.
00:09So today, we're going to dive deep into the state of the race in North Carolina and how
00:13it could be one of the most crucial battlegrounds in the 2024 presidential election.
00:18North Carolina has been moving back and forth between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with
00:24the lead shifting almost daily.
00:26If Harris manages to win North Carolina, it could effectively seal the deal for her.
00:31The state is incredibly tight, and its significance cannot be overstated.
00:36If Harris wins here, it could signal that the election is over and Trump's chances
00:41of reclaiming the presidency would plummet.
00:43North Carolina has always been one of those states that leans Republican but has shown
00:48a growing tendency to swing in recent elections.
00:51It's not a solid red state like Texas or Alabama, but Republicans have generally had
00:56the upper hand.
00:58Democrats have been knocking on the door for several cycles now, often coming close
01:02but never quite crossing the finish line.
01:05If Kamala Harris can flip North Carolina, it would be a huge game changer.
01:10This state is so crucial because it could not only tip the balance in this election
01:14but also reshape the electoral map for future elections.
01:18As of today, September 14th, Donald Trump is leading in North Carolina by a slim margin
01:23of 0.4%.
01:25That's according to the polling average, but it's been bouncing back and forth.
01:30Just yesterday, on September 13th, Harris was ahead by 0.2%.
01:36The day before that, on September 12th, she was still ahead, while Trump had a 0.1% lead
01:42on September 11th.
01:44On September 10th and 9th, it was a tie, and Trump was ahead again on September 8th.
01:49So, in just the last 6 days, we've seen the lead swap multiple times between Trump
01:54and Harris.
01:55It's incredibly volatile, and you don't often see this kind of movement in a single
01:59state over such a short period.
02:02This constant shifting just goes to show how razor thin the margins are in North Carolina.
02:07It's a state that's teetering on the edge, and either candidate could come out on top.
02:12This is not something we typically see in most presidential elections.
02:16Usually, by this point in the cycle, the battleground states are still competitive, but they're
02:21not moving this rapidly between candidates.
02:24North Carolina, however, is defying that trend.
02:28It's almost impossible to predict where it will land, and that makes it one of the
02:32most exciting states to watch.
02:34When you go back even further, to August 12th, when we started tracking the polls in North
02:39Carolina, you can see that this back and forth has been happening for a while.
02:43The state has never really settled into one candidate's column.
02:47It's a true toss-up, and every day brings new data that changes the outlook.
02:52Tomorrow, we could very well see Harris back in the lead, just as easily as Trump could
02:57extend his slight advantage.
02:59It's that close.
03:00Looking at the pollsters who are tracking North Carolina, we see some interesting trends.
03:05The more reputable pollsters, like Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA, both have Harris ahead by three
03:12points.
03:13Morning Consult shows the race is tied.
03:15On the other hand, less reliable pollsters, such as Trafalgar, which has a poor track
03:20record and a partisan slant, show Trump ahead.
03:23Trafalgar has a reputation for skewing toward Republican candidates, and they have a low
03:28accuracy rating.
03:29Despite these differences, the average of all polls still shows Trump with a narrow
03:34But it's so close that any day could bring a new frontrunner.
03:38Now let's talk about the Harris campaign and their strategy in North Carolina.
03:42They're focusing heavily on the state, and for good reason.
03:46The campaign is making a big push to increase voter registration among key Democratic demographics,
03:52such as young black women, black Americans in general, and young Latinos.
03:57These are groups that could make a significant difference in North Carolina.
04:01The voter registration numbers for these demographics are skyrocketing, and that's
04:05a big deal.
04:06First-time voters, especially in diverse states like North Carolina, often aren't captured
04:12in polling data, so their impact is harder to predict.
04:15But if these groups turn out in large numbers, it could tip the state in Harris' favor.
04:21This surge in voter registration is one of the reasons Harris is in a better position
04:25in North Carolina than Joe Biden was in 2020.
04:28Biden wasn't really focused on flipping North Carolina.
04:32His strategy was centered around holding onto the Rust Belt states, Wisconsin, Michigan,
04:37and Pennsylvania.
04:39Those three states were crucial for him, and as long as he held them, he didn't need
04:43to worry about places like North Carolina.
04:46But Harris' path to victory is different.
04:48She has a real shot at turning North Carolina blue, and that changes the entire map.
04:53If Harris can flip North Carolina, it would add 15 electoral votes to her total, and that
04:59would give her a massive advantage.
05:01Looking at the electoral map, if Harris wins North Carolina, she would be at 242 electoral
05:06votes, while Trump would be at just 149.
05:09That's a huge gap.
05:12Even if Trump wins Texas and Florida, two states that are leaning Republican but still
05:16competitive, the race would become much closer, with Harris at 242 and Trump at 219.
05:23But if you take North Carolina out of the equation, the race tightens even further,
05:28with Harris at 226 and Trump at 219.
05:32This shows just how critical North Carolina is.
05:35If Harris can win it, she raises the floor for Democrats significantly and makes it much
05:40harder for Trump to catch up.
05:42North Carolina could be the state that pushes her over the top and gives her a commanding
05:47lead.
05:48Now, let's consider the possibility that North Carolina flips blue.
05:52If that happens, it's likely that other battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan,
05:57Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada would also go blue.
06:02In 2020, North Carolina was the only one of these 7 key battleground states that went
06:08for Trump.
06:09He won it by just 1.3%, while all the others went for Biden.
06:13So if Harris can win North Carolina, it's a good indicator that she'll also win those
06:17other battlegrounds.
06:19If that happens, Harris would end up with 319 electoral votes to Trump's 219, giving
06:25her a victory margin of 100 electoral votes.
06:28That's not a close race by any stretch of the imagination.
06:32It would be a decisive win for Harris, and Trump would be left scrambling.
06:36But let's explore another scenario.
06:38What if Harris overperforms in the Sun Belt, which includes states like North Carolina,
06:43Georgia, and Arizona, but underperforms in the Rust Belt, which includes Wisconsin, Michigan,
06:49and Pennsylvania?
06:50In that case, Trump could pick off a couple of Rust Belt states, like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania,
06:56which are worth a combined 29 electoral votes.
06:59Even if Trump manages to win those, he'd still only be at 248 electoral votes.
07:05He needs 270 to win, so he'd still be 22 electoral votes short.
07:11If Trump loses North Carolina, he'll have to turn to other battleground states to make
07:15up the difference.
07:16His best option would likely be Arizona, which has 11 electoral votes.
07:21But even if he wins Arizona, he'd still only have 259 electoral votes, still short
07:27of the 270 needed to win.
07:30So where does Trump go from there?
07:31His only real option would be to try and flip Michigan, which Biden won by 2.8% in 2020.
07:38Flipping Michigan would be a tall order, especially in this political environment where Harris
07:42is performing as well as Biden did, if not better, in the polls.
07:47If Harris is matching or even slightly underperforming Biden's 4.5% popular vote margin from 2020,
07:54it's hard to imagine her losing Michigan.
07:57She would have to underperform by 3 points or more to lose the state, and that seems
08:02highly unlikely given the current polling and the state's recent history.
08:06Michigan is one of the more democratic-leaning battleground states, and it's hard to see
08:10Trump flipping it unless something drastic changes in the national environment.
08:15Another important factor to consider is the relationship between North Carolina and Georgia.
08:21These two states are geographically close and have similar demographic trends.
08:25It's unlikely that one state would flip blue while the other goes red.
08:29If North Carolina goes blue, Georgia is likely to follow.
08:33These states are moving in the same direction politically, and it's hard to imagine them
08:38splitting in opposite directions.
08:40So if Harris wins North Carolina, it's very likely that she'll also win Georgia.
08:45That would add another 16 electoral votes to her total, pushing her closer to victory.
08:50Trump's path to victory would become even narrower, and he'd have to win almost every
08:55other battleground state to have a chance.
08:58At that point, Trump's only real option would be to try and flip Michigan, as well
09:03as hold onto Arizona and the Rust Belt states.
09:06But as we've discussed, flipping Michigan is a long shot.
09:10Even if he manages to win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, he'd still be short of the 270
09:17electoral votes needed to win.
09:18Looking at the electoral map, Harris could win the election by taking just North Carolina,
09:24Georgia, and Michigan.
09:25That would give her 273 electoral votes, which is more than enough to win.
09:31She wouldn't even need Pennsylvania to secure victory.
09:33It's hard to imagine a scenario where Harris wins those three states and still loses the
09:39election.
09:40Even if Georgia were to go red while North Carolina flips blue, which is unlikely, Harris
09:45could still win with Michigan and Pennsylvania.
09:48That would give her the electoral votes she needs to cross the finish line.
09:52In conclusion, North Carolina is shaping up to be one of the most important states in
09:56this election.
09:58If Kamala Harris can flip it blue, it could open up.
10:01A path to victory that doesn't rely as heavily on the Rust Belt.
10:05North Carolina, Georgia, and Michigan could be enough to win her the election and she
10:10might not even need Pennsylvania.
10:12The state is a true battleground and the outcome there could determine the entire election.
10:17That's it for today's video.
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10:28Thanks for watching and I'll see you in the next video.