• 2 months ago

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Transcript
00:00Let's bring in our international affairs editor, Ketavan Gojjastani, to unpack what's at play.
00:05Ketavan, we've recently had the meetings between UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President
00:09Joe Biden discussing the future of Ukraine's ability to use these long-range missiles.
00:15The US hasn't exactly changed its policy yet, but they are seeming to slowly open the door
00:23for that possibility. What do you tell us? Yes, they insist that the policy hasn't changed on
00:28how Ukraine can use those long-range missiles. But as you said, there are several signs that
00:34indicate that they're at least considering the possibility of green-lighting that use.
00:40One was that meeting between the US President and the British Prime Minister,
00:44because they discussed this at length. And Keir Starmer was very public about it coming out of
00:49that meeting, saying that the discussions were going to continue. And then you had Jake Sullivan,
00:56the National Security Advisor of Joe Biden, yesterday at the Yalta conference,
01:01saying that this topic was the subject of intense consultations among allies and partners,
01:07and will be discussed between President Biden and President Zelensky, announcing also that the two
01:14presidents will be meeting later this month on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
01:21And there are several reasons for the United States to maybe starting to shift that position.
01:29One is the pressure from Ukraine, Zelensky at that same Yalta conference, saying that TAKMs,
01:35which are the US long-range missiles, are, quote, pointless if they cannot use them on Russian
01:42military sites deep within Russian territory. There's also the pressure from allies. We've
01:48heard from the Scandinavians, the Eastern Europeans, they don't have long-range missiles,
01:52but they want that green light. And now you have the Brits, as well as the French, starting to say,
01:59maybe we need to reconsider. And finally, you have the US election that is coming up in November,
02:04and this feeling that maybe the allies want to sort of Trump-proof the future of Ukrainian support.
02:12And Jake Sullivan, in that same conference, saying that after the UN General Assembly,
02:19President Biden at that point will still have four months left in his term, and he's determined to
02:24use those four months to put Ukraine in the best possible position to prevail. This, of course,
02:31is a way of helping Ukraine being in the best position. They are about to announce a new
02:38substantial package of military aid from the United States, probably the last one
02:43under the Biden presidency. And it also comes just after that presidential debate,
02:47where Donald Trump was asked twice whether he wanted to see Ukraine win the war, and twice he
02:54refused to answer that question directly, simply saying that he wanted to end the war without
02:59saying who he wanted to see win. So you have a feeling that the Americans are trying to do
03:05their best right now to help Ukraine as much as possible, to sort of prepare for any possibility
03:12after November. Preparing for any eventuality, and you always get the pushback from the Kremlin
03:18itself. Vladimir Putin stating that any use of these long-range missiles into Russian territory
03:24will be crossing a red line. We've heard these red lines consistently being announced over time
03:30in the war, and then they consistently get pushed back. Why has Washington been so reluctant to let
03:37Ukraine use these weapons? Does it have anything to do with that, or is it something deeper?
03:41Absolutely. And the Americans and the allies in general have been saying that one of the
03:46things they don't want to do is escalate this war. And Vladimir Putin on Thursday saying that this
03:54would significantly change the nature of the conflict, quote, it would mean NATO countries,
04:01the US, European countries are at war with Russia. But as you've said, this is something that
04:06Vladimir Putin has said since the start of this war. He had the same type of warnings
04:12with the first weapons that were sent, then with the tanks, then with the F-16s. And every time
04:18there hasn't really been any consequence, at least for NATO members. He's retaliated against
04:24the Ukrainians, but he hasn't really done anything about those red lines being crossed.
04:29So that is one of the factors for the Americans, is they don't want to be seen as pushing Vladimir
04:36Putin too far. And then there's the strategic aspect of it, which is that the Americans,
04:41for example, say that the attack would not be a game changer. And the Ukrainians are pushing
04:47back on that, saying that if you look at the map of where the Russian military bases are,
04:53there are still hundreds of places in the close Russian proximity that could be taken out by
05:02long-range missiles. When the Americans say that the Russians have moved a lot of their military
05:09elements even further, that is according to the Institute for the Study of War. This is the map
05:15that they've put out showing that there are still a lot of places that Ukraine could reach with
05:21those long-range missiles. And the Ukrainians say that it would help weaken supply lines,
05:26reduce Russia's air superiority, and it would come very handy right now,
05:31just before the winter, because that would be even more important before the winter time.

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