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00:00For more we can bring in Peter Zalmayev, director of the Eurasian Democracy Initiative, who
00:06joins us from Kyiv.
00:07Thank you very much for joining us here on France 24 today.
00:10Now it's been 10 days, over 10 days, that Kyiv launched this invasion, this incursion
00:16into Kursk, whatever you call it.
00:18Do we know what's behind Kyiv's thinking?
00:21Well, officially we don't, but at least we have an official confirmation that it is indeed
00:26Ukrainian troops.
00:27And even if you had asked me about a week ago what the plans were, I would have said
00:32probably stick around for maybe a couple of more days, show up Vladimir Putin's regime
00:37for what it is, a colossus on clay feet with porous, undefended borders, and idée fixée,
00:45and a fixation and an obsession with Ukraine so much that Vladimir Putin does not bother
00:51to defend his own borders.
00:53But right now I see the intention is to try to get entrenched in Russia's territory in
00:57order to use it as a bargaining chip in eventual negotiations with the Russian side.
01:03You leave the Kharkiv region, we leave Kursk.
01:06Also it's lifted our morale, the morale of the fighting troops and people behind front
01:11lines, which who have been in need of good news for a long while.
01:15This is a very daring, risky but a daring move that has lifted hearts here in Ukraine.
01:23Once again, the end goal we don't know yet, and maybe that is part of the design.
01:28The secrecy in which this operation was conducted was in secret not only to the Russians but
01:35to most Ukrainians.
01:36I would imagine that only a very tight circle of individuals know of the eventual goal of
01:43this daring operation.
01:45Peter, you said it could potentially be used as a bargaining chip.
01:49So essentially, Kiev would essentially take control of a chunk of Russian territory the
01:56size of what Russia has annexed of Ukraine and potentially Crimea and say, okay, now
02:02let's swap?
02:05This could be.
02:06Once again, the numbers simply bear this out.
02:11The reinforcements that have arrived in the last few days, I think, you know, we can now
02:17talk about at least 10,000 Ukrainian troops present there, as many as 80 population settlements
02:24occupied, and maybe an advance as far as 30 kilometers inside Russia's territory.
02:32So that may actually be the case.
02:34Also, the Ukrainians, we're waiting to see if the Russians start withdrawing their battle-hardened
02:42troops from the, you know, hottest points of the front, including Toretsk and Pokrovsk
02:47in the Donbas, to try to kick the Ukrainians out.
02:51If that happens, that will also have been justified, because, you know, we, the Ukrainians,
02:57are bleeding quite heavily.
02:58Russians are advancing.
03:00Pokrovsk is a key place to hold, and, you know, a lot is riding on Ukraine's ability
03:08to keep it.
03:09So far hasn't happened.
03:10We're seeing that Russians are continuing the tempo of their advance, but they are finally
03:17starting to withdraw their troops elsewhere, including in Kharkiv.
03:21So maybe the strategy is slowly but surely working out.
03:26Peter, Russia has already started to say NATO weaponry is being used on its territory by
03:32Ukrainian troops.
03:33We've often heard about red lines by NATO states.
03:37Is this not a red line?
03:39Well, we have official statements from the Pentagon and other ministries of defense.
03:45They're saying that this is not really an offensive operation.
03:50This is largely a defense operation.
03:54Most Ukrainian allies have vocally stood behind Ukraine's decision to do this.
03:59And in fact, we are hoping that in the remaining months of Joe Biden in the White House, and
04:05he's announced that in an interview to the Financial Times, that he will concentrate
04:09on bolstering security relations with both Ukraine and Taiwan, that finally, finally
04:17the White House will be persuaded to lift this ridiculous, you know, limitation on Ukraine's
04:25ability to use its weapons against Russia.
04:28I mean, it already is inside Russia.
04:30If it is enabled to use some of the America-provided weaponry, I think it could, you know, develop
04:37this operation into a strategic success.
04:41We have some reports that some British tanks may potentially be, are being used in this
04:46operation.
04:47But for instance, if Ukraine starts using the F-16s, which it has received, that would
04:53potentially ruffle further feathers in Russia, won't it?
04:57Well, I mean, the feathers have been ruffled.
05:01I don't know which, you know, which other feathers remain that have, that are unruffled.
05:05And I think that's also part of the importance of this operation.
05:08It is showing to our Western allies first that Ukraine is able to stage daring offensive
05:15operations, offensive defensive operations, and that there are no red lines really to
05:20cross.
05:21Do not be afraid of Kremlin's red lines.
05:23They're already in Russia's territory fighting with some of the Western-provided tanks, as
05:28you mentioned.
05:29And what?
05:30According to Russia's nuclear doctrine, they're supposed to respond to it with a nuclear strike.
05:35Instead, we don't hear in nuclear rhetoric at all.
05:39There was a stoppage to all nuclear rhetoric.
05:41Now that Russia is sensing that, you know, it's here, it's there, it has to put its money
05:47where its mouth is, and all of a sudden it's showing lack of resolve on that issue.
05:52So this is very important, and I think it should embolden our Western allies to give
05:56Ukraine all that it needs to kick the Russians out of its territory.
06:02Peter, we have, you mentioned President Biden.
06:07His term is coming to an end shortly.
06:10We're not sure who's going to come out on top in November, of course.
06:14Could this be why Ukraine launched this incursion now, and not just because the weather is about
06:21to change?
06:22Well, I mean, I think the main, once again, the main goal has been to reassure its Western
06:29allies that Ukraine is capable not only of constantly crying, we need more weapons, please
06:35help us.
06:36No one likes this sort of attitude, and people get tired.
06:39It's a part of human psychology.
06:42People like a success story.
06:43And reading Western press and analyses, while most analysts will tell you that this is a
06:49risky operation, still a lot of folks have been heartened, and I think this should encourage
06:54the West to step up its support of Ukraine.
06:58Peter Zelmayev, thank you very much for joining us on the program today.