• 2 months ago
Transcript
00:00What's one of the best things about football this time of year?
00:06You really only go two days without it.
00:09Monday night comes to a close to end out week number one in Santa Clara between the Niners
00:14and the Jets.
00:15Thursday night football to kick off week two just over 48 hours away, Joe's neck of the
00:22woods.
00:23Down in Miami, it's a divisional duel between the Dolphins and the Bills.
00:27Both teams storming back from an early two touchdown deficit.
00:31Miami trailed Jacksonville 14-zip in the opening half, down by 10 at the break.
00:36Buffalo down 17-3 to Arizona early in the opening half on Sunday in Western New York.
00:42Both come back to win, neither team covers by the hook.
00:47In Miami, as of this moment, Ranieri a slight favorite at home in South Beach, a point and
00:52a half on the spread, minus 120 on the money line.
00:56We'll get to the offense expected in that total in just a second.
01:00But just a point and a half in terms of the spread, 22 cents of distinction in the money
01:07line.
01:08What do you make of the numbers early on here on this Tuesday morning?
01:11Listen, if history is any indication of what we're going to get here, Ben, don't forget
01:17Buffalo beat Miami not once, but twice last year, including in a crazy Sunday night game
01:24where it was like 100 degrees and guys were cramping up and passing out on the sideline
01:29early last year against Buffalo.
01:32But Buffalo was still able to come back and get the job done there.
01:35400 yards offense, over 300 yards offense in the air for Miami.
01:41And I didn't think Tua looked good at all.
01:43I think he looked very discombobulated, but a couple of big plays, namely an 80-yard touchdown
01:48pass to Tyree Kill, kind of saved them.
01:51They had no business winning that game at all, Ben, if ETN doesn't get the ball punched
01:57out on the goal line there.
01:59We're having a different conversation, but keep an eye on the hand of Josh Allen.
02:05There was some concerns there heading into this game, but didn't it feel like it was
02:11the Josh Allen show again?
02:14It kind of feels like that's the way it's going to have to be for the Buffalo Bills
02:18for the foreseeable future until they can steady the ship a little bit offensively.
02:23It's Josh Allen or pass for me here.
02:25If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
02:26They own Miami.
02:2818 of 23 for 232 yards and two touchdowns for Josh Allen.
02:34James Cook on the ground, 19 carries for 71 yards.
02:39Some hard-earned yards, you know, longest rush of 15 yards.
02:42So outside of that, 18 for 56 against a Cardinals defense that is not necessarily going to knock
02:50anybody's socks off throughout this season, but two rushing scores as well for Josh Allen.
02:57From the trend perspective, virtual pick them probably by the time we get to Thursday.
03:02If you want to bring in against the numbers and against the spread for a point and a half
03:06number, feel free to do so.
03:09But we know what the story has been Joe for Miami under Mike McDaniel, when the games
03:13you're supposed to, and really just the point in the games, you are not favored, but as
03:18a favorite, since McDaniel took over in 2022, Miami is now 18 and four straight up and it's
03:25a virtual pickup.
03:27Buffalo has only been a dog three times in the last three years.
03:31They're one and two straight up.
03:33That's it.
03:35Three times and they're one and two straight up Buffalo, even last year, slow to start
03:41six and six following there by they rattled off five consecutive wins, including in the
03:46regular season finale against the Dolphins to claim the AFC East 44th straight season.
03:52But they were booked as a favorite 16 times a season ago.
03:56So they're not used to even being a slight money line dog, 48 and a half an area.
04:02What is that total?
04:03It was 50 and a half just yesterday.
04:06Still think we see some points, albeit on a short week, a short week.
04:12We tend to look at these games as under opportunities anyway, Ben also keep an eye on the weather.
04:18It's supposed to be pretty rough heading in towards the weekend.
04:22Keep that in mind for college football games as well.
04:26You're right.
04:27Short week though, less prep, but it is a division rivalry.
04:31These two teams know each other pretty well.
04:342114 was that first game last year and then Buffalo trounced them in Buffalo.
04:40So the problem with Miami, Ben and backing them is that they never beat playoff teams
04:46ever into his tenure.
04:48And that's the problem is Buffalo a playoff team until as long as Josh Allen's under center,
04:54they're a playoff team.
04:55It's a tough spot for Miami.
04:57Yeah, I think it is really when you look at it right now.
05:01The offense needs to groove for Buffalo.
05:03There is no doubt.
05:04Tua ended up throwing for more than 300, Jalen Waddell and Tyree Kill both going over
05:09the century mark.
05:10And of course, Tyree did catch a touchdown early in the second half to spark the comeback
05:15for Miami who blanked the Jags, but still it wasn't a picture perfect day to start the
05:21season.
05:22More early leads on the early line up next.
05:25It's a Tuesday, but it gives us time here on the early line to look at the early lines
05:30for the upcoming week in the National Football League week to over 48 hours away.
05:36Thursday night football kicks us off in Miami, but now we get to the Sunday slate marquee
05:42matchup in the afternoon window in Kansas City.
05:46The Chiefs host the Bengals.
05:49What is Cincinnati going to do to try to follow up and show some resolve after a disastrous
05:55debut last week at home against the Patriots?
05:58They lose 16 to 10 outright as a seven and a half point home favorite against a New England
06:04team that entered the season with the lowest win total in the National Football League.
06:09The Chiefs win the season debut in Arrowhead, thankfully, because Isaiah likely was wearing
06:14one size too large in his shoe.
06:18But Kansas City wins and covers in the season opener.
06:22Five and a half point spread.
06:23Five and a half point spread in favor of KC total at 48 and a half, a five and a half
06:29point number.
06:30Does it seem too large and a slight overreaction based on week one, or is it fair for this
06:37matchup between two teams?
06:39We expect at least we did to contend for the AFC crown this year.
06:44Yeah, it's two teams that know each other well again.
06:49You know, you're going to have Patrick Mahomes going up against Joe Burrow.
06:52It's always unreal.
06:54You have to.
06:55It's kind of no man's land, though, Ben, which is hysterical right now at this number at
07:00five and a half.
07:01What are you supposed to do it?
07:02It's nowhere near a key number.
07:04And the books are kind of telling you right there.
07:06Well, here you go.
07:07Good luck trying to figure this one out.
07:09But again, Cincinnati has never been good in September and watching that game against
07:15New England.
07:16I mean, maybe I'm crazy, but it was clear to me New England was better in shape.
07:23They were not winded.
07:25It looked like Cincinnati was still playing out of the, you know, at a preseason football
07:31level there.
07:32There were guys there that were getting pushed around left and right.
07:35I do think you'll see a much better effort out of Cincinnati.
07:39And who knows each other better than these two teams here, Ben?
07:43I do think an under might be better suited in this game than a side just yet.
07:50Plus, we got to see exactly who's playing for Cincinnati and who's not certainly in
07:54the wide receiver room.
07:57That is definitely the case.
07:59Will T. Higgins be available and active for week two?
08:02What is the status of Jamar Chase?
08:04Are we going to go through another illness of wanting $35 million a year, probably even
08:11more than that?
08:12Of course, there is this rivalry that is starting to build in the AFC and the narrative early
08:18on was that since he had Casey's number first three matchups between Patrick Mahomes and
08:24Joe Burrow, the Bengals won all three twice in the regular season, most notably in overtime
08:31in Arrowhead to end out 2022 in that AFC championship game, the Bengals victorious
08:38to end out, I should say, the 2021 season played, of course, in 2022, Cincinnati won
08:44the AFC in 2021 to get to a Super Bowl.
08:48But Kansas City in the last to beat the Bengals in the AFC championship the following year
08:53and last year in the regular season, Joe Burrow was not out there, but the Chiefs needed to
08:59beat the Bengals week 17 to kind of resurrect faith in Kansas City to hold on to the AFC
09:06West division.
09:07And they did that.
09:08Twenty five, 17.
09:09Of course, it was Jake Browning playing for Cincy, not Joe Burrow.
09:12But the Chiefs have won two straight after they lost three in a row to Cincy.
09:17Here we are again.
09:18The Chiefs, a home favorite, as we would expect, 27, 27 and three entering the year as a home
09:25favorite, a cover against Baltimore, make it 28, 27 and three against the number as
09:30the home team with Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterback.
09:35We'll see what the Bengals can do in terms of keeping this game close.
09:40Let's go.
09:41Sunday night football, an exciting matchup with the number one overall pick from this
09:44year against the number two overall pick from a season ago, the offensive rookie of the
09:49year favorite in Caleb Williams against the guy who was the reigning hardware owner in
09:54C.J.
09:55Stroud.
09:56Sunday night football in Houston, the Texans playing host to the Bears in Houston, nearly
10:03a full touchdown favorite, laying six and a half at home total at forty six and a half.
10:09Both teams want to know, in fact, Chicago's the only team that covered in week one out
10:14of these two.
10:15Joe, what do you make of the numbers for Sunday night in H-Town?
10:17Yeah.
10:19Well, it kind of makes sense, doesn't it?
10:22The thing that impressed me the most with the with the Texans and we had mentioned it
10:28really was the defense and special teams that saved the day for the Chicago Bears, Caleb
10:32Williams and a fifty five point seven passer rating is not going to move the needle.
10:37Fourteen of twenty nine for ninety three.
10:40What was very impressive for Houston was the two hundred and thirteen total rushing yards,
10:45which was about twenty eight yards more than anybody else had had on the ground there,
10:51Ben, as a team and welcome Joe Mixon, who was one in addition.
10:56He turned out to be their Texans at home feel like they are going to welcome the rookie
11:03quarterback there.
11:04No problem.
11:05And show you once again that the best quarterback in the draft over the last two years is the
11:10one under center for the Houston Texans.
11:12Yeah, it's going to be really interesting.
11:14I think in terms of how this game plays out, I give the edge to Houston, but here's one
11:19of the things that I find fascinating.
11:20The Texans are now no longer the team that came out of nowhere, that had a win total
11:25of six and a half.
11:26And we're not expected to even have a remotely close to winning record in one, the AFC South.
11:31And we saw that start to develop for Houston throughout the home stretch of last season,
11:36booked as a favorite much more often than they were in the first ten weeks or so of
11:41the twenty twenty three NFL season.
11:43The Texans three and a half point road favorite last week to kick off twenty twenty four in
11:48Indianapolis.
11:49One of the highest scoring games of the weekend, twenty nine, twenty seven.
11:53Houston wins, but they don't cover with CJ Stroud as the quarterback show.
11:57The Texans are just three and six against the spread as a favorite.
12:02I think Chicago keeps this game closer.
12:05I think Houston wins outright.
12:07I'm not even sure it's decided by just a field goal and it is under that key number of seven.
12:14But I could see a twenty four twenty type of game.
12:16And of course, a lot of focus will be on Caleb Williams having to perform oh, so much better
12:22than he did on Sunday at Soldier Field.
12:24Yeah, not much going to have to be much, much better here.
12:29And I think they're going to have to figure out a way to the run the ball a little bit
12:32better there, Ben.
12:33They're going to have to take the pressure off this kid and they are not going to want
12:38to get into any sort of shootout here with Houston.
12:41That secondary of the Bears going to be really tested with those wide receivers of Houston
12:48here.
12:49I worry that they're going to get down early and then Caleb Williams is going to have to
12:54drop back 40 times in the game, Ben.
12:56And that is a recipe for disaster and a blowout.
12:59Joe, when you look at Matt Eberflues, he remains the head coach, of course, in Chicago, took
13:04the reins back in twenty twenty two.
13:06Things are different.
13:07Chicago was a home favorite of more than a field goal in their season opener.
13:12So thirty five games now for Eberflues, but in his first two years, thirty four games
13:17booked as a dog, twenty eight times.
13:20They were not very good covering spreads eleven, sixteen and one against the number.
13:26It will be interesting to see what the passing prompts are for this game.
13:30CJ Stroud is so great at taking care of the football, that precious resource.
13:35He had five interceptions all of his rookie season, had zero interceptions against Indianapolis,
13:40two thirty four and two touchdowns.
13:43Chicago's defense that I think is pretty good is going to be tested.
13:47Joe Mixon ran the ball 30 times in the season opener against Indianapolis for one hundred
13:51and fifty nine yards and a touchdown.
13:54And Stephon Diggs caught each of the two touchdown tosses that CJ Stroud threw on Sunday in Indy.
14:00Yeah, it's I call me crazy here.
14:05I think there are going to be when it's all said and done here, MVP chance from from a
14:13few people there on.
14:14I'm just saying it's it would not shock me because the weapons that they're working with,
14:19they're kind of crazy, Ben, is it not?
14:23I would think so.
14:24And CJ Stroud has that third best price now at plus eight fifty.
14:27A couple of lines that stand out.
14:29The 49ers five and a half point favorite on the road in Minnesota, the Sam Darnold revenge
14:34game, perhaps against his former team, the Jags three and a half point home favorite
14:40against the Browns.
14:41There will be plenty more early looks at the early lines for week two later in the week.

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