Analisis Peluang di Tengah Geliat Sektor Properti
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Jumat (06/09/2024) dengan Tema Analisis Peluang di Tengah Geliat Sektor Properti"
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00:00Thank you for joining us, Minister, at the MarketBus, and now we are in contact with Ms. Rita Effendy who is an Investment Consultant and also the Founder of Indonesia Investment Education. Good morning, Ms. Rita.
00:18Hello, good morning, Mr. Kiki.
00:19Good morning, Mr. Kiki. Thank you for joining us at the MarketBus this time. If we talk about the ISG strengthening that was in the positive zone yesterday,
00:30it was followed by the property sector which increased by 1.72%. What is your analysis on the movement of this property sector?
00:37And if we look at it, what is it that then influenced the movement of the property sector yesterday?
00:45Yes, the property sector is indeed interesting because there are many positive catalysts in this sector.
00:52The first is the incentives from the government that support economic recovery, namely the PPN incentive that is borne by the government,
01:03which is 100% that makes the property sector then fluctuate. Because the policy ended around June,
01:11well, this is finally extended until the end of 2024. Then from the sector, it is expected that with the incentive,
01:20the sales of the property sector, households and vertical units will also be spurred.
01:29Then there is also data from the flower breeders, which is expected to be implemented soon around September.
01:37It will also give a positive signal to the property sector, because usually Indonesian flower breeders will follow the global flower breeders,
01:47which will also decrease. And that makes the price of the PNBR more affordable, so that people will be more motivated to buy in the PNBR.
01:58Then there is Mr. Prabowo who also promulgated the construction of 3 million house units after taking office later.
02:03So 2 million units will be in the village and 1 unit will be in the city.
02:09Until Mr. Prabowo will form the Ministry of Housing. So this is also a very interesting catalyst,
02:15because the initial budget was prepared for around Rp 53 trillion.
02:19So these are some catalysts that make the property sector quite vibrant and there is quite an interesting surge.
02:26Okay, and this is also a sentiment or maybe a trigger for the development of the property sector.
02:33You also recommended for the college sector, what is it like, Ms. Rita?
02:37And if we look at the term for the PPN which is supported by the government 100%, it is extended until the end of 2024.
02:44It means that for the property sector, it is recommended to be in the middle of the year until the end of the year.
02:49After that, we will see later, or you see in the long term, the property sector is very potential.
02:56Actually, for the mid to long term, it is still quite interesting.
03:01Because the property sector, if we pay attention, it has not moved for quite a long time.
03:06We did not get a positive catalyst or did not move up.
03:10Like a few years ago, in addition to COVID-19, the economy was still bad.
03:17Then we entered the election year, so the property sector did not increase much.
03:22Now there is a movement, maybe buying is selective first.
03:28Why? Because there are some stocks that have risen quite high.
03:32Like yesterday, ASRI has risen quite high.
03:35So technically, maybe that's enough.
03:38So it's a bit overbought.
03:40If there is a slight correction, maybe it can be considered.
03:44Although fundamentally it is quite interesting because it is still cheap.
03:49The PBV is only 0.2, so it's still interesting.
03:53And maybe later we will discuss one by one,
03:57some properties that have a catalyst, there is a story, and that is what drives the rise.
04:03Various catalysts, did it cause the emergence of new target prices on the property basis?
04:12So then you recommend, although some have risen and entered the overbought area,
04:18even if you don't want to enter, just enter because there are new target prices.
04:22What's interesting, maybe you can give a little leak before we go to your choice of property stocks.
04:30Okay, maybe we will first discuss the story behind the rise in property stocks.
04:36Because there are individual stories.
04:39Like BSDE, it did rise because the stock price exceeded expectations rather than consensus.
04:45Its joint venture value of Rp 900 billion will be accepted around the second semester of 2024.
04:54So the possibility will be booked there.
04:56So it will happen, the performance will be better than before.
05:01And then the emittance also keeps on buying.
05:05Usually now, if there is a correction, it enters.
05:09So from the emittance, it also continues to buy.
05:11And then for Sumanekon itself, the catalyst is the ITO plan from the company itself.
05:17And CTRA is also very interesting.
05:19Because CTRA is predicted that its performance will be even better
05:24because CTRA has just launched the latest hospital in Surabaya.
05:29And this is the second largest Ciputra hospital with a capacity of 200 beds.
05:35So this Ciputra hospital was built around Rp 520 billion.
05:39And this hospital will serve the people of Surabaya around Citraland.
05:46And this will also be a catalyst for Ciputra.
05:50Because in addition to having a property sales,
05:53it will also get a sentiment or get a contribution from this hospital.
05:58Which will later become a current income.
06:00Then there is Asri. Asri has just launched Alam Sutradua.
06:04And the area is 400 hectares across Ikea.
06:06The price is only Rp 900 million compared to Gerha Bintaro, which actually the location is not very far.
06:12But the price is quite discounted.
06:15And PBV itself, we said earlier that it was still cheap.
06:18Because yesterday Asri was heavily in debt.
06:23The US dollar debt, the US dollar debt is high.
06:25That makes Asri's price go down quite a bit.
06:30And Asri Sendai has just refinanced its US dollar debt to BCA.
06:34So for the time being, Asri's US dollar debt is zero.
06:38And there is one more thing.
06:41APLN also, the high sales sales are also increasing.
06:45Then there is also the development of other properties, such as Podomoro Jakarta, Podomoro Golf,
06:50and Podomoro Bandung, and there is also Kerawang.
06:53And there is also one thing that we can't pass, which is the peak.
06:59The peak itself, the increase is quite significant.
07:01Because the purchase was made again by Induk.
07:07So the peak is also quite interesting.
07:10And the sales are also good.
07:13So from an incentive point of view for the property industry,
07:16this is also interesting and seen from the fundamental of companies,
07:20every company or emitter, this is also interesting.
07:25Yes, there is a story.
07:27Are the companies you just mentioned interesting fundamentally and also technically?
07:32Or just fundamentally?
07:34It means that this is only accommodated in the long term,
07:37in the short term, I think it will be later.
07:40Because the fundamentals are more interesting.
07:43Maybe like this.
07:45There are some companies that have rallied first,
07:48but there are also some that have not moved up too much.
07:51Like APLN, it just rebounded from MA 200 days ago,
07:56and it will break resistance 1.2.6.
07:59So at level 1.2.6, APLN has the potential to rally to 1.4.1 to 1.4.4.
08:08But it turns out that if it is corrected,
08:11119 will be when we do Sopros.
08:15And there is BES.
08:17BES is a sister company from ASRI.
08:19ASRI has been rallying for a long time.
08:22From around 100, it has become 240.
08:24Yesterday, the closing was above 200.
08:27Well, BES itself has just broken resistance,
08:30a strong mid-range of 130,
08:32with a relatively large volume yesterday.
08:35So this may be a concern,
08:37if it can hold,
08:39and when, for example, the correction,
08:41then it holds at 130,
08:43then BES has the potential to rally again with the Rounding Bottom target,
08:46because it is technically very interesting at 1.7.1,
08:50but if it forms an APLN Handle,
08:52it can be further at 1.9.8.
08:54But keep our risk, stop loss 1.2.8.
08:58That's for property shares that may still be interesting,
09:02or not too far from the rally.
09:05Okay, if we look at the shares that you recommended earlier,
09:09based on property,
09:11the movement will be potential,
09:13but the price is still cheap.
09:14Maybe you can tell us more, Ms. Rita.
09:20From the property sector earlier?
09:22Yes, that's right.
09:24Yes, for the property sector,
09:26because some shares such as ASRI, CTRA,
09:28have started to move from before.
09:31Maybe you can pay attention to the APLN,
09:33which I said earlier,
09:35because it has just broken resistance,
09:37and ASRI for BES,
09:39because it may be able to follow the movement of its mother,
09:42not its mother,
09:44the sister company, ASRI.
09:46So usually it's like this,
09:48one group that rises,
09:50the other one is affected.
09:52Those two can be monitored for short-term trading,
09:55or long-term,
09:57where the APLN itself is just restructuring the debt too.
10:00So these are some catalysts that are very interesting
10:03from these two property shares,
10:06although later we will discuss other shares,
10:08because yesterday the CPO shares also rallied quite a bit.
10:10Okay, so that was the summary of the properties,
10:13which are still interesting in terms of price,
10:15but the potential upsides are interesting.
10:17In addition to properties, there is a top-gen list at Alkipat 5,
10:19and this is one of them from the retail sector,
10:21such as S-Hardware,
10:23then also Yendev,
10:25and also communication, there is Excel.
10:27We went to S-Hardware first,
10:29which said it wanted to rebrand,
10:31it was said that the S-Hardware brand itself
10:34was going to be finished in Indonesia,
10:36but then the store here would not close.
10:38There is only one new name like that,
10:41which then also becomes a sentiment
10:44that may color the movement of S-Hardware itself, Marita?
10:48Unexpectedly, it turned out that yesterday,
10:51S-Hardware was moving up
10:53and making the technical history very interesting.
10:56Indeed, S-Hardware will change its name
10:58to PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia or AHI.
11:01That was decided at RUKS-LB on June 7th yesterday.
11:05So it looks like S-Hardware
11:08is preparing to rebrand
11:12with a new identity.
11:14Maybe it needs to attract public attention too.
11:18Because in the beginning, people will think,
11:21wow, S has been in Indonesia for 26 or 29 years
11:26for S-Hardware itself.
11:28With the change of name that has changed
11:31to become very Indonesian,
11:33maybe people need time to adapt.
11:35If we go to the store, we usually look at S-Hardware,
11:38now we look at AHI.
11:40It takes time, right?
11:42But maybe with the increase in sales,
11:44it will also make people not too worried.
11:47Because not everything has changed.
11:49Only branding or the image of S-Hardware
11:52can save money
11:54because it doesn't have to pay the license fee anymore.
11:57That may be a catalyst for a very positive future
12:01with the saving of license fees that can be cut later.
12:05Looking at the movement for S-Hardware,
12:08is it still interesting for Wisa to enter S-Hardware?
12:10S-Hardware still looks interesting.
12:13But to be honest, I went out yesterday,
12:15so I met the rally.
12:18But if you look at this,
12:20it went up with a fairly high volume yesterday.
12:23The volume is large, the price increase is also high
12:26to form a rounding bottom.
12:28And it directly touches several lines of MA.
12:32So actually this is quite interesting.
12:33But for me, maybe today,
12:35I'll monitor it first,
12:37because often these stocks,
12:39if it goes up fast, it sometimes has a pullback.
12:41The pullback is a healthy pullback,
12:43especially on Friday.
12:45But if there is a slight pullback,
12:47I think this can be used to enter S-Hardware.
12:49Although because it went up high yesterday,
12:51I usually look at the bottom.
12:53Because the volume is large,
12:55it becomes a pullback,
12:57then the price goes up quite high in one day
13:00to several moments.
13:01But sometimes S-Hardware,
13:03as soon as it goes up high,
13:05it sometimes has a pullback first.
13:07Yes, it's a healthy correction,
13:09it can be used.
13:11From S-Hardware to INDF,
13:13what is it like if you look at the analysis?
13:15INDF is actually quite long,
13:17the rally.
13:19So maybe yesterday,
13:21there were a lot of recommendations
13:23for Indofood.
13:25Indofood itself is actually
13:27one of the emitters
13:29in the consumer sector,
13:31especially in the defensive sector.
13:33Especially with a fluctuating market,
13:35maybe some funds
13:37are more comfortable
13:39to invest in this sector.
13:41Indofood is still interesting
13:43because the inflation is still stable,
13:45the purchasing power of the community
13:47is also expected to remain stable.
13:49And what's interesting about Indofood
13:51is that as a holding,
13:53there is L-SHIP.
13:55And L-SHIP yesterday,
13:57there was a fairly high pullback
13:59to making L-SHIP technically
14:01part of the CPO.
14:03It seems that the levy
14:05is going to be considered
14:07to be reduced
14:09and there is a potential
14:11to enter the B40
14:13for biodiesel.
14:15Okay, Indofood itself,
14:17after yesterday's strength,
14:19today is 1.08% weaker
14:21in the opening of the day.
14:23As for the complete opening data,
14:25we will continue
14:27in the next session,
14:28we will be back soon.