• 2 months ago
Transcript
00:00As far as some of the odds are concerned going into the season, what we're noticing, Sam,
00:07at least initially, is the odds makers have made a lot of the NFL totals a little higher
00:12going into the season, a point or maybe two points or three.
00:16They sort of look off, to be honest with you.
00:18A lot of these games, you're wondering why the totals are so high.
00:20Do you think it has a lot to do with these new kickoff rules?
00:23Because it seems to be an indication of that.
00:26Yeah, it's really interesting just looking at the totals in general.
00:29When you think about how many games have gone under over the last two or three years, there's
00:34been a big trend where an unusual amount of games have been lower scoring than the books
00:39have predicted.
00:40So I caught up with some odds makers this past week to ask them about these new kickoff
00:44rules, which makes some pretty big changes.
00:46There's going to be a landing zone.
00:47The ball must be kicked in between the goal line and the 20 to try to encourage more returnable
00:52balls in play.
00:53Players are going to have to wait until the ball lands or is caught to then pursue whoever
00:58has the ball, which is designed to make the game safer and less high speed impacts.
01:03Essentially, odds makers think you're going to have the ball higher up the field to start
01:08and you can have more scoring opportunities, which in turn is being reflected in these
01:12higher totals.
01:13At DraftKings, the totals opened up about half a point higher than they have in past
01:18years.
01:19I caught up with Johnny Avello, who's a sports trader at DraftKings, who explained, yeah,
01:23we're bracing for these rule changes, but obviously we don't want to overcorrect as
01:27well.
01:28We're looking sky high totals, accounting for all these new touchdowns.
01:31It's going to be something they monitor throughout the year and monitor how bettors and the public
01:36react to it as well.
01:38We've had rule changes in the past in college football.
01:40You had the first down change last year where the clock wouldn't stop.
01:44The initial thinking was maybe that's going to make the game slower, less scoring.
01:48It didn't.
01:49So odds makers are aware that you don't want to overreact to stuff.
01:52You don't want to underreact to stuff, and you also want to listen to what the market
01:54is telling you.
01:55So there's a lot of money coming in on the unders in these games, but obviously ahead
02:01of kickoff, that's when a lot more of the money comes in, a lot of the public interest,
02:05which would probably come in on the over as well.
02:07So it'll be interesting to see week one, if we have any returns.
02:10Last year, only the Texans had two kickoff returns.
02:13Fandle's offering a new market.
02:15Which team is going to have the most kickoff returns?
02:17So it'll be interesting to see if the team finishes with more than two or if these rules
02:21just kind of status quo.

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