Are We Overrating The Difficulty Of The Texans' 2024 Schedule?
Seth Payne and Sean Pendergast dive into Mike Sando's piece in The Athletic about schedule difficulty and assess if they've been overestimating how hard the Texans' schedule is this season.
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00:00Are we overrating the difficulty of the Texans 2024 schedule? I think, I think by any measurement,
00:07look, this is a harder schedule than last year. There's no doubt about that. I don't care what
00:10certain styles of rankings say about this schedule versus last year. Like just the quarterbacks alone
00:16make me feel like the Texans are up against it. And just to, I guess, add some context to this
00:22last year, I would say the third best quarterback, the Texans played behind Burrow and Lamar Jackson
00:27might've been Baker Mayfield, might've been Joe Flacco at the end of the year in the regular
00:32season, Joe Flacco might've been Trevor Lawrence. Like they did not play a lot of
00:36good quarterbacks last year. And this year all four quarterbacks who finished ahead of CJ Stroud
00:45for the Pro Bowl in the AFC are on the schedule. Mahomar, Josh Allen, Tua, Jordan Love's on the
00:51schedule. Dak Prescott's on the schedule. Jared Goff's on the schedule. I don't know how you feel
00:57about a rookie Caleb Williams, but he's on there in week two. Like there's a lot of, and I'm missing
01:01some too. I know I'm missing some. There are a lot of good quarterbacks. And yet Mike Sandoe,
01:06the athletic, we went through his tiers of quarterbacks last week. He went through an
01:11exercise set where he took the final scores of all 30 quarterbacks and he applied some,
01:16he didn't have rookies in there. So he just came up with some arbitrary numbers for the rookies.
01:21Caleb's the best and Jaden Williams and so forth. Basically added up the ratings of the 17
01:26quarterbacks at each of the 32 teams face. And if you add up the ratings of the Texans 17 starting
01:34quarterbacks that they face on paper right now, we know some of those are going to change because
01:38of injury and performance. The Texans have the 19th hardest schedule and it's mostly because
01:43the quarterbacks in this division, at least according to GMs around the league currently
01:48are not very good. Trevor Lawrence, other than CJ Stroud, Trevor Lawrence is mid.
01:52And then Anthony Richardson and Will Levis, there is not a lot of faith early in these guys right
01:57now. I think that's the one where if you look at the top end guys, obviously it catches, you know,
02:04Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rogers, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Jordan Love.
02:10Like those are the, those are the top tier quarterbacks that they face.
02:14Then yeah, it's easy to, to get hung up on what a tough schedule it is. I guess my one concern
02:21is that when you start looking at the bottom tier quarterbacks, they face,
02:25you know, Anthony Richardson is in the bottom tier. Will Levis is bottom tier. You're going
02:30to face those guys four times. Those, those two teams have, in the case of the Colts,
02:37they have a, the upside of Anthony Richardson and the fact that Richardson on any given Sunday can
02:43be a real nightmare for you. Like Richardson can be that type of quarterback that maybe it doesn't
02:48work out for him in his career. Maybe three years from now, he actually hasn't been that good.
02:53But as a defensive coordinator, you go into that game thinking, man, this guy can ruin my
02:57whole day on two plays. You know, this guy can unleash a perfectly placed bomb downfield,
03:02or he's going to take off with his legs and it's just going to ruin my Sunday.
03:06In the case of the Titans, I don't, I don't buy into Will Levis at all. I'm kind of surprised
03:11that there's still people that are buying into him. I, I think he's a flaming disaster and yet,
03:17I think, I, I think they've gotten some good coaching around him and there's a chance that
03:23it's a much better team this year. So I don't want to sleep on the Titans just because of
03:28previous issues that they had or even their quarterback. Cause I do think this is a scheme
03:33that kind of like in a Gary Kubiak, Kyle Shanahan fashion can get the most out of
03:39a mediocre quarterback. I've, I've long thought throughout this off season,
03:43the Titans are going to be a bottom five or 16. And I, but I will acknowledge that they,
03:49they made some moves that should improve his receiving. I mean, they signed Calvin Ridley.
03:53He's and, and Tyler Boyd, like those two are an upgrade over what they were trotting out there
03:58alongside Deandre Hopkins last year. So that's a, if healthy, it's an older trio, but it's a good
04:03trio of receivers. It's veteran guys. And with Ridley, there's a level of explosiveness to
04:08that group. I like the running backs, even though they lost Derek Henry. Like I think,
04:13you know, Pollard, Tony Pollard, when used in the right role split with Ty J Spears,
04:18the kid out of Tulane, like that's a, that's a backfield that has a little bit of explosiveness
04:22to it. You know, they, you know, they, and, and they picked up, they've picked up veterans.
04:27I mean, luxurious need is a high level cornerback, but they went and got some, you know,
04:31they got quandary digs and they got Jamal Adams. I, you know, Jamal Adams, isn't the guy that
04:35Seattle traded two first round picks for anymore, but it is some veteran help on the backend.
04:41So they've got some guys I'm more concerned about this version of the Titans than I was
04:46last year's version of the Tennessee Titans. If you look at the top tier guys,
04:51the Mahomes, the Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rogers. I think that where it could easily go
04:59one way or the other is with Josh Allen and Aaron Rogers, just then that Aaron Rogers,
05:04we don't know exactly what he's going to look like. If he's going to be able to stay healthy,
05:07whether he had an Achilles tendon tear or not, just given his injury history and his age,
05:13that you'd, you'd have questions about just how good he's going to be this year.
05:17And then with Josh Allen, I mean, Josh Allen's in a situation where kind of like it was with
05:22Pat Mahomes a few years ago, when he lost Tyreek Hill, he's got a lot to prove this year.
05:27You have got to see Josh Allen on a team that doesn't have the same assets or weaponry that Pat
05:34Mahomes that had at the time, just because he's, he's still had Travis Kelsey, Pat Mahomes still
05:39had Travis Kelsey. He had lost somebody that was, you know, Tyreek Hill was a bigger loss than
05:46Stefan Diggs is a loss in terms of the caliber of player at this state of Stefan Diggs career.
05:51But I think the bills are in, the bills had a lot of losses in free agency. They're, they're
05:58really under the gun this year. I like to, I think to a greater degree than most people are talking
06:02about it. They've, they've got a lot of challenges, both offensively and defensively.
06:07The chiefs were, when they traded Tyreek Hill and they made that decision to go, okay, we just can't,
06:12we can't pay Patrick Mahomes. We can't pay Travis Kelsey and pay Tyreek Hill and pay guys on
06:17defense, Chris Jones, guys like that. They were just, they were built on a much more solid
06:22foundation to, to execute that strategy than the bills are right now. To your point, the bills
06:28traded away Stefan Diggs for a draft pick. And by the way, a draft pick that they don't even get to
06:34use until next year, it was a 2025 second round pick. And, and they, they're getting rid of guys
06:42like they're not retaining foundational guys like they Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde.
06:47And now Matt Milano's hurt for most of the season with this torn biceps. Like they're just,
06:52Andy Reed is your head coach in Kansas city. Sean McDermott is your coach in Buffalo. Like you,
06:57you just have independent of how you feel about Mahomes versus Allen. They're clearly at least
07:03on offense, executing a similar strategy. I'll tell you who puts a lot of pressure on
07:07aside from Josh Allen and Joe Brady, their offensive coordinator, Dalton Kincaid,
07:11the second year tight end, right? Cause there's a lot that, as you pointed out,
07:14Seth, like the reason they could trade Tyreek Hill was because they could get average wide
07:20receivers and put them out there. Okay. The bills have done that. They've gotten guys that
07:23might not even be average, but they had Travis Kelsey in Kansas city, a hall of fame, tight end
07:29and Kincaid a big part of what they're trying to do this year. That's a lot of pressure on
07:32a second year guy. And by the way, I, you and I haven't talked about this cause you were out
07:38and I don't think they even had like the official clarification didn't come out until maybe on
07:42late Friday or Saturday. Rishi rice for the, for my homes is not going to miss any games at the
07:50beginning of the season. They're going to let the legal process play out. So depending on how long
07:55that goes, I don't know, maybe the legal process will play out at an advantageous time. That's
08:00like right before, right before Christmas time. Merry Christmas. You're going to miss the Texans
08:05game. That would be beautiful. That's really interesting. I had not seen that. So I appreciate
08:11the update. It's really interesting. Cause the NFL, since when does the NFL care about the legal
08:17process? They're there. You know what they, it has been, it's come up in a few things that when
08:23it doesn't involve domestic violence, especially, I think that's, they've tried to be, that's been
08:28more of the policy over the past, but when it involves Rishi rice and his friends, possibly
08:34killing people on a freeway. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Um, no, that's just interesting to me. Um,
08:41so yeah, so that, that'll be one weapon. Mahomes has early on in the season, at least.
08:47Um, does this make you any less, I don't know how nervous you were about the schedule to begin with,
08:52with the Texans. Does this, does this resonate with you at all that maybe like, Hey, we're,
08:55we're kind of, yeah, they play a lot of top level quarterbacks, but the other quarterbacks,
08:59they play our guys where there's a lot of questions about it. No, I think if anything,
09:03it maybe just, it shows that maybe it's not as simple as, Oh, look at the quarterbacks. Yes.
09:10It's the most important position, but it's the offenses in total, because if you look at this
09:16listing of, Oh, Hey, the Texans, the quarterbacks they face aren't actually all that great.
09:21The mid one of the mid tier guys is to a tongue of Iowa. So again, this goes back to the, any
09:27given Sunday part. I don't, I don't care where two is going to rank historically amongst
09:31quarterbacks. It's a really scary offense is to the driver or the recipient of that.
09:37When it comes to playing them on that specific day, I don't care. It's a really good offense,
09:43no matter how good or how responsible to is for it. I think they, this is my, my biggest concern
09:49with the Texan schedule is yeah, I am. I'm concerned about the quarterbacks, but I think
09:55there is a similar concern, if not a, maybe even a greater concern in these other cities about the
10:01Texans quarterback. You know, it's not like you're going into this schedule and Brock Osweiler's the
10:05quarterback. You're like, well, okay. Osweiler's got it. We, we feel pretty good about the team
10:10we built like they did in 2016, but Osweiler's our quarterback. So we're not, we can't stand
10:14toe to toe with Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rogers and Josh Allen and my homes and on and on and on.
10:20I think these other cities are looking, are going through this exercise if they are and
10:24they're going, okay, well, we got to play Stroud. We got to play Lamar Jackson. Like Stroud gets
10:27mentioned in, in those tiers. My, my biggest thing in looking at how Sandoe lays this out
10:33visually, Seth, in this article, the Texans only play one really bad team this year and it's the
10:39new Patriots. Yeah. Like even Minnesota, I know Darnold stinks, but they've got a lot of talents
10:44on that roster. I know we'll love his stinks, but as we just talked about, they've upgraded
10:48this around him mendously. I think Indianapolis I've said all along is the second best team in
10:53this division Richardson or no Richardson. So there, there, there are five or six or seven
10:59garbage teams in the NFL. I think, I think the Texans play one, maybe two of them all year.
11:04The three of the, in three of the quarterbacks in the world, three of the games played against
11:09lower tier quarterbacks are very much in the unknown category, Caleb Williams, and then twice
11:15with Anthony Richardson. It's that the upside of those guys and the potential of those guys to be
11:20scary or wreck your day is very, very high. We just don't know yet. So I think the uncertainty
11:26about that and the potential for Caleb Williams through the bears did a really good job of
11:30surrounding with lots of veteran wide receiving help. And then Anthony Richardson, again, go back
11:36to the any given Sunday. That's that's the perception. I don't think it's an unwarranted
11:41concern or fear. If, if you're looking at the names on the schedule, we, we talked about that
11:46article earlier in the athletic on the show today, where they took the 10 teams that according to the
11:52computer model that Austin mock of the athletic uses the 10 teams with the best chance to win a
11:57super bowl, why they will and why they won't. The Texans were not among those 10 teams. I can't
12:02imagine they weren't any further down that they were further down than 11th or 12th, but it was
12:06a computer model that simulated the season a bunch of times. And the top 10 teams included teams like
12:12the jets and the bills that I think the Texans are better than if the Texans found their way
12:16onto that article, Seth, and it was the why they will and why they won't win a super bowl. What do
12:21you think if the Texans don't win a super bowl, what do you think the biggest reason will be?
12:25Uh, the big, the biggest reason in the most likely right now would be just that they don't develop a
12:31solid rushing attack, especially when it comes to playoffs. There's times where you just flat out
12:35have to run the ball. And if you can't run the ball, when you have to run the ball versus really
12:39good defenses, then, then this offense is going to be as potent as the passing game suggests it
12:45could be. So right now that's my biggest concern. And, um, and by the way, since it is good to point
12:52out, a lot of the computer models do have the Texans as like around the 14th or 15th favorite
13:00to win the super bowl. And like that sometimes, you know, the, the lines are tweaked by human
13:05perception and what gamblers feel. And the Texans have had a glow up all off season long.
13:11The computers can be a, a much more objective look at just exactly. Okay. What is unproven
13:18about this team and what have you, there's still a lot of projection going on with them.
13:22Uh, I tend to look, I drink the Kool-Aid. I, a lot of this is a vote, a vote really for D'Amico
13:29Ryan's and CJ Stroud and them being what I think they are. And then also improving over what they
13:36were last year. I think that's the one as much as people have praised CJ Stroud. And for the most
13:41part, people kind of like most analysts are discounting a sophomore slump or something,
13:47but I think that they also at the same time, haven't really accounted for the fact that
13:52CJ Stroud is going to likely improve as a quarterback with or without Stefan Diggs.
13:58I think that he's going to be a better quarterback for the duration of the season. He was
14:02looking at the entirety of last season. This, this is not a reason why the Texans will win a Super
14:06Bowl, but this is in my region, why they are so high up on the odds board for winning a Super
14:13Bowl and why people are so bullish on over nine and a half wins. CJ Stroud is one of the most
14:18popular players in the NFL right now. Yeah. Point blank. I mean, like the, the, the, the average Joe
14:23better looks at quarterback first and foremost, when they're doing these things, I saw an article
14:29this weekend that said that talking about trading cards, you know, and like CJ Stroud, this is a
14:35super nerdy thing, but like of all the graded trading cards out there among NFL players,
14:40CJ Stroud is light years ahead of everybody else right now. Like we've got like 145,000 graded
14:46trading cards out there, which is more, if you were to put a fantasy team together of the highest
14:50graded ones at each position, like two running backs, three receivers, a tight end and a defense
14:55and a kicker CJ has more than the rest of those players combined. Like he's that popular out
15:01there right now. He's, he's an incredibly popular young player out there right now.
15:06You know? So it's fun to have man. Really fun to have.