"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Rabu (28/08/2024) dengan Tema Dow Jones Rekor, IHSG Diprediksi Lanjut Menguat?."
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00:00Economy and Emittance
00:05We will see several economic agendas and emittance agendas
00:09as follows.
00:10From the United States, there is the raw oil inventory.
00:12Then there is the Pidato VAT Waller.
00:14Then from the European Union, the amount of money circulating.
00:16And from Germany, there is information about consumers.
00:21And from France, there is consumer trust and industrial sales from Italy.
00:26And some news from Japan and the Philippines.
00:30Emittance
00:32Then we go to the emittance agenda.
00:36There is information from BTEL.
00:39The emittance will go to RUPS, TSPC.
00:42Then there is BP, there is BBYB.
00:46Then SMDR, Payment of Interim Cash Dividend.
00:49Payment of Interim Cash Dividend from NICL.
00:51Those are a number of emittance agendas
00:54that seek the attention of the emittance on August 28, 2024.
00:57Emittance
01:06We will discuss the emittance this morning
01:09through a video conference with Mr. Emil.
01:13But before that, let's take a look at an update from the Asian Stock Exchange.
01:16Where the Nikkei Index of Japan is monitored this morning.
01:19The emittance is as shown on the screen, decreasing by 0.06%.
01:22Singapore's emittance is only increasing by 0.07%.
01:25Meanwhile, the Finan Hang Seng cost is also in the negative territory.
01:34Hello, good morning, Mr. Emil.
01:36Good morning, Miss Lisa.
01:38Thank you for joining us this morning, Mr. Emil.
01:40Yesterday, the Asian Stock Exchange index
01:42experienced a correction.
01:44Is this a correction that can be said to be reasonable?
01:46After the Asian Stock Exchange index
01:48continued to record a closing record
01:50for the past few days.
01:53Oh yes, if we look at it,
01:55yesterday the Asian Stock Exchange index
01:57was weakening by 0.11%,
02:02more or less, for the Asian Stock Exchange index.
02:05After previously setting the highest record
02:09for the ISG.
02:11However, if we look at the thin correction
02:14in the previous ISG,
02:18if we relate it to the fact that
02:20there is an action to take advantage of investors,
02:22there is an action to take advantage of investors.
02:24Then, if we look at it from the other side,
02:27it looks like it is fueled by political uncertainty
02:31that is starting to increase.
02:33For example, the registration of the head of the ADR
02:35in the 2024 working group,
02:37especially in the Jakarta DKI group.
02:41Then, as we know,
02:43Jakarta is an economic and political center.
02:46Automatically, it has a significant impact
02:49on the sentiment in the market.
02:52When there is a negative sentiment
02:55or uncertainty,
02:57especially here is the uncertainty
02:59of the results of the DKI group,
03:01which is related to the policy and strategy
03:03of the candidate to be chosen,
03:05this causes concern among investors,
03:07where this uncertainty tends to
03:09push market players
03:11to take advantage of it.
03:13Where is this uncertainty
03:15used or done by investors
03:17to protect the profits they have already achieved.
03:20Therefore, why yesterday the ISG was
03:23corrected by 0.11%
03:25after previously
03:28experiencing the highest record.
03:31Okay.
03:32What is your recommendation and analysis
03:34for the price index of joint stocks
03:36after it dropped again from 7,600 to 7,500?
03:39Is there a chance for further weakening
03:41of the ISG?
03:42On the contrary,
03:43considering the closing of the Wall Street Stock Exchange
03:45yesterday, Dow Jones,
03:46the main index in the Wall Street Stock Exchange,
03:48recorded the closing record again.
03:51Okay.
03:52For the correction of the ISG today,
03:54I see that the ISG has a chance
03:57to strengthen
03:59by testing the resistance level
04:01at the level of 7,600.
04:03If we look at
04:05what makes the ISG
04:07have a chance to strengthen
04:09first, if we look at the positive sentiment,
04:11first, from the global economic data,
04:13such as the growth of China's profit industry
04:16and the growth of the German economy
04:18which is better than expected.
04:20Then there is also
04:22a negative sentiment
04:24that this is one of the burdens of the ISG movement,
04:27which is about
04:29the outbreak of the Makipox case
04:32which is stated as a global public health emergency.
04:34That also affects
04:36our capital market, right?
04:38Yes.
04:40There will be a negative impact
04:42on the movement of the ISG.
04:44Automatically,
04:46it will become a negative catalyst
04:48and become one of the
04:50burdens of the ISG movement in the future.
04:53Okay. Do you see
04:55how big is the impact of this monkey
04:59on the economy,
05:02especially the capital market?
05:03What will be the opportunity like?
05:05Should we anticipate it?
05:08Okay.
05:09If I look at
05:11how big the impact is on the capital market,
05:13it seems that
05:15if we compare it
05:18with the sentiment
05:20that is
05:22rampant,
05:24which is about the defect of the Makipox case,
05:26maybe indeed
05:28for the Makipox case,
05:30the percentage is only small,
05:33not compared to the sentiment
05:35that is now high,
05:37such as the defect
05:39of the Makipox case.
05:41So, there will be
05:43a little fluctuation
05:45in the movement of the ISG
05:47for the short term.
05:49But for the long term,
05:51it is not that significant.
05:53Okay. What is the correlation?
05:55Is this only
05:57a moment for taking advantage?
05:59What is the correlation
06:01between this monkey
06:03and the capital market in Indonesia?
06:05In the past, COVID-19 was clear
06:07because it is a global pandemic.
06:09And there are quite a lot of cases.
06:11Meanwhile, the Ministry of Health
06:13from the information that we presented
06:15previously, stated that it is still under control.
06:17Okay.
06:19For the correlation,
06:21if we look at the correlation
06:23between the Makipox case
06:25and the capital market,
06:27COVID-19 is clearly
06:29a worldwide disease.
06:31If we look at the correlation
06:33between the Makipox case
06:35and the capital market,
06:37it is not that significant.
06:39As I mentioned earlier,
06:41there will be a little panic
06:43or panic selling
06:45or taking profit
06:47from various investors
06:49because they see
06:51negative sentiment,
06:53especially in the movement of the ISG.
06:55However, this is only
06:57a short-term fluctuation.
06:59It seems that for Makipox,
07:01there is still no
07:03further urgency like that.
07:05Okay.
07:07We will start to be aware
07:09if the spread is wider or not.
07:11Yes, that's right.
07:13If we look at it now,
07:15when the spread is wider,
07:17maybe we have to be more aware.
07:19Maybe it can be the same
07:21as COVID-19.
07:25Okay.
07:27So, this is an opportunity
07:29to take advantage
07:31while the discussion
07:33about the monkey trap is still hot.
07:35Okay.
07:37What about the election?
07:39Especially in Jakarta.
07:41We will discuss it later,
07:43but first,
07:45we would like to remind you
07:47to stay in the marketbuzz segment.
07:49Thank you, Mr. Miersan,
07:51and we will continue to talk
07:53with Mr. Emil Vajerizky,
07:55We discussed earlier
07:57that there is a possibility
07:59related to this monkey trap
08:01will also affect the risk
08:03in the Indonesian capital market
08:05which makes people do short-term
08:07profit-taking actions
08:09and can have a greater impact
08:11if it spreads like that.
08:13Hopefully, the government has anticipated this.
08:15Okay.
08:17So, in the short term,
08:19where will the Sargasso Index opportunity go
08:21after testing again the 7500 range
08:23Okay.
08:25For the ESG potential,
08:27as I said earlier,
08:29there is a potential
08:31to be strengthened
08:33with the resistance of 7600.
08:35However,
08:37it seems that
08:39from the sentiments
08:41that I mentioned earlier,
08:43there is a positive sentiment
08:45and a negative sentiment,
08:47it seems that 7600 is a level
08:49that is quite hard for ESG
08:51The potential for ESG to be corrected
08:53in the future is very high
08:55with the support of ESG
08:57is now at
08:59level
09:017515
09:03to
09:05level 7458.
09:07Okay.
09:09That is the range of the Sargasso Index movement.
09:11If it is strengthened to 7600,
09:13it seems a bit heavy right now.
09:15Okay. Yesterday, the main supporter
09:17of the weakness of the Sargasso Index
09:19is banking, of course.
09:21There are BBRI, BBCA, Bang Mandiri,
09:23BBNI, and several other banks.
09:25Bank Arto,
09:27and a number of other banks.
09:29Is this a moment to buy
09:31on weakness again,
09:33add a position in the lower price,
09:35while correcting along with the euphoria
09:37of the deflation of the DeFed relationship
09:39that has been stirred up.
09:41The possibility in September will be
09:4325 to 50 basis points,
09:45or wait first,
09:47ESG for 76 has started
09:49heavy, so the possibility
09:51can be corrected further. For example,
09:53for BBRI, which has been at 5175,
09:55yesterday it dropped 2.3%,
09:57maybe it will be cheaper again.
09:59Yes, if we
10:01talk about
10:03banking,
10:05can it be bought at a cheap price
10:07or at a low price? If we look at
10:09the big caps yesterday,
10:11such as BCA,
10:13BRI, BNI, this decrease
10:15automatically
10:17from the banks
10:19in the finance sector
10:21is very influential on ESG.
10:23But if we look at it from the perspective
10:25of the capital market, I see
10:27a correction in the finance sector,
10:29especially in the banking sector,
10:31actually becomes one of
10:33our momentum to buy
10:35on weakness or buy at a low price
10:37as we have said.
10:39Because if we look at
10:41the banks,
10:43such as BCA, BNI, BRI,
10:45which has strong
10:47fundamentals, even though it is
10:49corrected, there will be a
10:51significant rebound potential
10:53for the big caps
10:55banks if it is
10:57corrected. So, the point is
10:59can we buy at a
11:01low price? Yes,
11:03this is very
11:05potential, especially for long-term
11:07investors like that.
11:09Okay, you can also see on my
11:11video, some emittance that
11:13becomes a target
11:15of selling and
11:17experiencing weakness, especially from the banks
11:19in the past few days.