Moscow sees one of Ukraine's largest drone attacks as fighting rages in Kursk and eastern Ukraine

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00:00In other news, Ukraine launched the largest drone attack of the Russian capital overnight.

00:04According to Russian authorities, 11 drones were destroyed over Moscow.

00:08In total, 45 Ukrainian drones were reportedly downed across Russian territory.

00:14The latest attacks come as the incursion into Kursk continues.

00:18This Wednesday, the deputy head of Russia's Security Council says negotiations with Ukraine

00:23are off the table.

00:25For more, we can bring in Samuel Rahmani, Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services

00:29Institute.

00:30Thank you very much for joining us here on France 24.

00:33Now, when Ukraine started this incursion into Kursk, one was under the impression that Kyiv

00:39was doing this to get an upper hand in any negotiations.

00:42But now with Moscow saying talks are off the table, where does it leave Ukraine?

00:47Well, the Russians are playing a double game with the talks.

00:50Obviously, you see hardliners like Dmitry Medvedev consistently brand the Ukrainian

00:55government as an illegitimate regime that cannot be engaged in dialogue with.

00:59But you also see other Russian officials in the past, like Dmitry Peshkov and even Vladimir

01:04Putin, as recently as June 14th, talk about the prospect of talks.

01:07I don't think we should take a single isolated statement for Dmitry Medvedev as a sign that

01:12negotiations are impossible.

01:13I think that Ukraine, if it can make more gains in Kursk, is probably increasing the

01:17likelihood of future diplomacy.

01:19How do Ukraine's NATO allies view this incursion?

01:25Well, I think that it caught some NATO allies by surprise and probably some others less

01:28by surprise.

01:29I think that there was obviously some coordination with the United States on this, at least coming

01:34from the statements from John Kirby.

01:36But the Germans, for example, were somewhat left in the dark.

01:39But even though the Germans may not have been consulted on very readily, they're also not

01:43objecting to the use of their weaponry on Russian soil.

01:47And it's very possible that when Ukraine was going to NATO countries and asking them

01:50for permission to use their weapons inside Russia, they were talking about it in the

01:54context of some kind of territorial incursion.

01:57So even if they didn't know about Kursk specifically, they probably knew that Ukraine was going to

02:01try to do some kind of a strike into Russia at some point.

02:04But Samuel, I have a question.

02:05I thought the weapons were allowed to be used for defensive purposes.

02:09But is it considered defensive purposes if the weapons are being used on Russian territory?

02:15Well, I think it can definitely be considered to be defensive.

02:17It depends on how you define defensive.

02:19And that might be defined very differently by Kiev and other NATO allies.

02:23If you're talking about trying to derail the Russian war machine and firing drones on what

02:27funds it, which is oil refineries, perfectly legitimate.

02:30Of taking drones on metallurgy factories would be perfectly legitimate.

02:36And Russia's occupying territory inside Ukraine with heavy fortifications that are hard to

02:40trespass.

02:41So deliberate your own territory.

02:44The only way forward might be to do a land swap deal.

02:46And Ukraine can frame that as defensive also.

02:49And Russia's also striking across the border in Sumy, which is right across the border

02:53from Kursk.

02:54One could assume that Ukraine launched this incursion into Kursk before the winter sets

03:02in, but also before the presidential election in the United States.

03:07We don't know what's going to happen there.

03:08Yes, Kamala Harris is up in certain polls.

03:12But one never knows, right?

03:14Is there much of an appetite for this conflict to continue much longer and be settled just

03:19on the battlefield?

03:21Well, I think that there probably is a concern in Ukraine, obviously, about what a Trump

03:26presidency would mean.

03:27And the planning for this would have likely occurred long before August the 6th.

03:31So it probably was at a time when Trump was leading Joe Biden on average by about 5% in

03:35the polls.

03:36And he was talking about ending the war on day one.

03:40So I think that this offensive may have been done with that in mind.

03:42But regardless of who is president, there will very likely be some kind of a division

03:48between Republicans in Congress and whoever's in the White House, even if Harris is there.

03:51And the Ukrainians need to show that this war is winnable to get more American support.

03:56And that's why they're doing this offensive, too.

03:58Because I think over the past 18 months, when we saw the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive,

04:02when we saw Russia make incremental gains in Donetsk, in places like Bakhmut and Chez

04:07The feeling in Washington, amongst many, was that the war was not winnable.

04:10And now Ukraine has changed that paradigm potentially.

04:14It seems to have changed the paradigm for now.

04:16I want to talk about something that's going to happen on Friday.

04:20We're going to have the Indian prime minister who's going to be going to Kyiv.

04:23His first visit, Narendra Modi's first visit to Ukraine since the conflict broke out.

04:28The first visit by an Indian leader to the country in some decades.

04:31Clearly, Modi will have to walk a very fine, tricky line, because on one hand, New Delhi

04:39doesn't want to alienate Moscow.

04:43I mean, Modi was just in Russia last month, hugging Vladimir Putin.

04:48And he also doesn't want to leave Kyiv out in the cold.

04:53What can we expect from that visit?

04:56Well, I agree with you.

04:57India has definitely got a very delicate line to thread.

05:00Obviously, India views Russia as one of its historical, all-weather, trustworthy partners.

05:06We've been in times when the United States has supported Pakistan, and China has been

05:10aggressive towards it.

05:11So it definitely does not want to do anything to blow its relationship with Russia.

05:15What I think Modi will try to do when he visits Kyiv will be, number one, try to assuage

05:20Ukrainian concerns about India's enabling of sanctions violations.

05:24There's a lot of concerns in Kyiv, for example, right now about how European oil is simply

05:28being refined in India, and that Russian oil may be being refined in India and then being

05:31sold to Europe.

05:32And then the second thing would be to show that it is a contributor to a broader peace

05:36settlement and is a potential leader in terms of a global south peace solution that might

05:41be different from the solutions that China has proposed, which Ukraine sees as giving

05:45up too much territory, or South Africa and Africa has proposed, which have been criticized

05:49in a similar fashion.

05:51Yeah, New Delhi actually says that he will, Modi will be looking to discuss a resolution

05:57to the conflict.

05:58One wonders if that's going to be a diplomatic resolution, a negotiated resolution, given

06:02that Moscow says it's not willing to talk.

06:04We'll see how things span out.

06:06Samuel, thank you very much for that.

06:07Samuel Rahmani joining us today.

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