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00:00Houston was a favorite yesterday. They win with Yusei Kikuchi on the bump.
00:04They're a home favorite once again today with Ron El Blanco.
00:07Minus 126, that updated number on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
00:10The Over-Under stands at eight and a half.
00:13It's game two in H-Town. What's the play?
00:17Times like this that make it tough to handicap.
00:19You see that Houston Astros line up against right-handed pitching over the past 30 days.
00:22It's been fantastic. Bregman, Alvarez, Diaz, Pena, Singleton, Caratini,
00:26all with elevated weighted on base percentage numbers.
00:29If you take a look at Nick Pivetta, over the past 30 days, he's faced 83 batters.
00:32Look at his ISO against a 346, which is astronomically high.
00:36A weighted on base percentage of 389, and quite frankly, lefty and righty batters are tattooing him.
00:41But what happens if I told you today, Ben, over the past 60 days in this Major League Baseball season,
00:46just looking at XFIP numbers, there are 24 pitchers on the card today.
00:50Minimum of 20 innings pitched over the past 60 days.
00:54How about this? The best pitcher on the card? It's Nick Pivetta.
00:57So make it make sense at this point.
00:59A guy with a 5.17 ERA over the past 60 days getting hammered left and right.
01:04We're trying to tell you that he's just getting unlucky at this time.
01:07Let's take a look at the Boston Red Sox on the opposite side going against Ronel Blanco.
01:11You know what Blanco struggles with over the past 59 at-bats over left-handed batters?
01:15Yeah, he can't get any of those lefties out.
01:17You know who has a lot of left-handed batters? It's the Boston Red Sox.
01:21Yesterday, I told you, I thought that game would be able to sneak over the total
01:24because sometimes in the hitter's ballpark,
01:26you just have to ride with the batters as opposed to the pitchers.
01:29I'm going to do the same thing tonight.
01:30I'm going to say I'm not trusting Pivetta's 3.14 dominant XFIP number.
01:35I'm going to trust a little bit more of those last 60 days
01:37of having that ERA of close to five with a good hitting lineup in order.
01:42Let's go over tonight in this game between Boston and Houston.