Your world with Neil Cavuto 8/9/24 FULL END SHOW | Fox Breaking News August 9, 2024
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00:00Stocks racing to rally and candidates just racing to rallies.
00:06Then there's Robert F. Kennedy Jr., forget rallies.
00:09He's racing to just get on ballots.
00:10He's here.
00:11And so is Mark Meredith, who's in Arizona with the Harris campaign, and Bill Mlugian,
00:15who's in Montana with the Trump team.
00:18We take stock, my friends, and you decide.
00:20Welcome everybody.
00:21Happy to have you.
00:22I'm Neil Cabuto.
00:23We might as well begin on the great Wall Street comeback, but I'm going to tease you.
00:26That is coming up.
00:27I can't believe how and why stocks turned around the way they did.
00:31But first, I want to take it to Mark Meredith in Glendale, Arizona, where he's been.
00:35Well, he's been complaining a lot about the heat, in fact, an inordinate amount about
00:39the heat.
00:40But that's OK, because, you know, he travels around and I guess he doesn't go to hot places,
00:44but this is a hot place.
00:46So what's the latest, my friend?
00:49Neil, this is not Honolulu.
00:51I can tell you that.
00:52Good afternoon.
00:53140 degrees here, but they're hoping that this will not stop people from turning out
00:57for the Democratic ticket today.
00:58The vice president and her new running mate trying to win over voters here in the Sunbelt,
01:02an effort that they give Democrats their best chance yet to generate some enthusiasm for
01:07this new ticket.
01:08We saw the vice president arrive in Phoenix late yesterday.
01:11The campaign trying to get the same crowds that we saw in Wisconsin and Michigan.
01:16The heat may be a factor, though.
01:18They have people been lining up, but not nearly as long as we've seen in other states.
01:21However, it is still early.
01:22The Democrats believe here in Arizona that they've got momentum on their side.
01:26We heard from the campaign today.
01:27They go, our campaign is centered around what unites America, opportunity, freedom and love
01:32of country.
01:33Donald Trump is too lazy to fight for anything but himself or leave his country club fine
01:38by us.
01:39Now, Republicans, they are ready to fight back here in Arizona.
01:42The state party launched new billboards in the Phoenix area, slamming Harris as being
01:47M.I.A. on the border, which, of course, is a major issue in this state.
01:51There's also a closely watched Senate race ongoing here where you have Democratic Congressman
01:55Ruben Gallego challenging former news anchor Carrie Lake.
01:58The Republican candidate Lake says Harris's visit today is going to do nothing to swing
02:03this state.
02:05We're living in the nightmare.
02:06They created a wide open border torn open on day one of their administration.
02:11The borders are Kamala hasn't even visited the border in Arizona.
02:15And Ruben Gallego has rubber stamped everything.
02:20We are expecting a large turnout of the Democratic establishment in this state, including the
02:24Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.
02:25But we're also looking to see again what kind of a crowd reaction we get for the vice president
02:30when she speaks here.
02:31Neil, I'll let you know once I'm inside and I can get out of this, you know, got you.
02:36Thank you very much, Mark.
02:37Meredith, it's a little cooler.
02:38I have a feeling in those in Montana that is where you'll find Bill Malusian.
02:42He's with Team Trump out there working to, I guess, knock off a Democratic senator.
02:48Right.
02:49And you'll get afternoon to you.
02:52You're right.
02:54Absolutely incredible out here.
02:55But look, Donald Trump, he's not coming here to Montana for himself.
02:58He's coming here because Montana is the scene of a crucial race in the Senate, a race that
03:04could determine which party controls the Senate moving forward, a race Trump is hoping to
03:09have a seat flipped red.
03:11So let's talk about that race.
03:12Take a look at here.
03:13The incumbent Democrat senator from Montana, John Tester, he's been in office since 2007.
03:19He has not endorsed Kamala Harris.
03:21He's going up against Republican challenger Tim Sheehy.
03:24He is a Navy SEAL.
03:25This race expected to be very tight, both sides attacking each other with constant as
03:30we've heard some of them on the local radio out here today.
03:33And we caught up with Sheehy a short time ago where he talked about how much it means
03:37to him to have Trump coming out here to try to help him in this race.
03:40Take a listen.
03:41Donald Trump himself is in a very tight race right now.
03:44What does it mean to you to have him come out here, campaign for you and try to flip
03:47this Senate seat red?
03:48Obviously, it's a great honor to have him here.
03:50It also shows he understands acutely how important it is that he have a Senate when
03:53he wins in November.
03:54He is going to win.
03:55You know, Kamala's a honeymoon period.
03:57She's going to be out of it soon.
03:58America's going to realize that her and Waltz are radicals.
04:04Now the crowd started lining up here very early this morning.
04:07Some of the folks 10, 12 hours ahead of time.
04:09There are already thousands of people out here.
04:12We caught up with a handful of them and asked them how they feel about Trump coming out
04:16to what's not really a battleground state for the presidency, but for the Senate instead.
04:21Take a listen.
04:22Montana is the best state in the nation.
04:24All these people want Trump.
04:26We're going to get rid of tester, get the Navy SEALs in there with Trump and the SEALs
04:31bring in the SEALs.
04:32It is a battleground state.
04:33It's a battleground state for the Senate and taking control of the Senate is extremely
04:37important.
04:38And she, he is a vital key to that.
04:41And so president Trump coming out here to support his candidacy, I think it's the right
04:45move to do.
04:46And Neil, Donald Trump isn't expected to take the stage and speak tonight for another six
04:54hours or so.
04:55That's going to be at about 10 o'clock Eastern time.
04:57But regardless, as we see with so many Trump rallies, you got thousands upon thousands
05:02of people behind us here lining up hours in advance, hoping to be some of the first to
05:06the doors.
05:07The doors haven't even opened yet.
05:09It is going to be an indoor rally tonight and we are expecting an electric atmosphere.
05:13We'll send it back to you.
05:15All right, Bill, thank you very much.
05:16Bill Malucian in Montana.
05:18So what's at stake here as Democrats get ready for their big convention and a little more
05:22than what, nine, 10 days from now?
05:24Susan Page, USA Today, Washington bureau chief joins us, as does Stephen Newcomb, the Axios
05:28reporter.
05:29So, Susan, let me get your take at what's at stake now.
05:32You know, obviously, Donald Trump is dealing with this surge for Kamala Harris, and she
05:39might have even a little bit more won after the Democratic convention.
05:43Then things tend to stabilize a little bit, even out a little bit, not all the time, but
05:48most of the time.
05:49So how do you see this going?
05:50Well, we certainly have seen a remarkable change in the race from the time.
05:56Think how recently it was that Joe Biden, President Biden, stepped back from this race.
06:02And in that time, Kamala Harris has had a great success in coalescing support behind
06:07her choosing a vice president moving toward this convention.
06:10But you're right.
06:11She's going to have a more difficult time after the convention because she's promised
06:17to do the debate on September 10th.
06:21She'll do presumably some interviews, some news conferences.
06:24She shied away from doing those in the last two weeks.
06:28And things happen.
06:30Things happen that will be good news for her, and things that will happen that will raise
06:33questions and put her on the spot.
06:35So it will be a different kind of race once we get past the Democratic convention.
06:41Let's get your assessments, even, of the money that's involved here.
06:45Both candidates are raising a ton of it.
06:47Obviously, some like to keep their powder dry, the notion that you would wait out the
06:52other candidate through his or her convention.
06:54That seems to be a little, you know, dated right now.
06:58But that would seem to be one of the reasons that Donald Trump, you know, was saying that
07:02his schedule for the immediate future isn't as aggressive as it was.
07:06What do you make of that?
07:08Yeah, I think for the Democrats, when President Biden was sort of in a situation where we
07:14weren't sure what he was going to do, there were powerful figures in the party that we
07:17know now who were trying to push him out.
07:19One of the main sort of leverages that they used against him was taking the money away
07:24from that campaign.
07:25So the fact that the Harris campaign has been super successful in its first week, week and
07:30a half, and posting some impressive fundraising numbers is huge for the Democrats.
07:36I think it's a sign of relief for the base and for the donors.
07:41But look, the money is super important.
07:44But also, as Susan said, like this, the next step of this after the convention, after her
07:51picking the running mate, is the rubber meeting the road of her campaign and her actually
07:56having to face some tough questions about her policies and her platform.
08:01You know, Susan, if I could flip back to Donald Trump, he's getting some internal fire from
08:06fellow Republicans are concerned that his internal fire, certainly against Brian Kent,
08:12the Georgia governor, is hurting the party, not only in the Peach State, but elsewhere.
08:16It's a distraction.
08:17He's got the issues going for him.
08:18He could have a bumpy economy going for him, given the craziness in the markets this week,
08:22although they ended on a good note.
08:25What do you make of that?
08:26Because I do want you to respond, you know, on this issue.
08:30I talked to Larry Hogan, of course, who's trying to take that blue Maryland Senate seat
08:34and turn it red.
08:35But he's having a devil of a time.
08:37Here's how he reacted to that.
08:39I just don't think it's useful at all to have a Republican nominee for president attacking
08:46a Republican governor over some perceived slight from years ago.
08:52It just it's none of this stuff is helpful if you're trying to win an election.
08:58Do you think Donald Trump is blowing it if he keeps this up?
09:01I've heard him say he's going to focus on the issues.
09:04And that's sort of what I've been suggesting for quite a while.
09:07And I think a lot of people in the party, although not not everybody speaking out, I
09:11think they would all like to see a campaign based on the issues that are important to
09:16Americans.
09:17What do you think of all that?
09:19Well, not useful is one way to put it.
09:22I mean, attacking Brian Kent, the popular governor of a swing state, a state that Donald
09:27Trump and Republicans hope to win is not useful.
09:29It's also very backward looking.
09:31It's looking back at the controversies and disputes over the outcome of the last election.
09:37So I think not helpful is definitely one way to put it, because what others in Trump's
09:42camp point out is that there are policy issues you could raise against Vice President Harris
09:50and that on the border, for instance, that would be an important one on some of the cultural
09:54issues that fire up a lot of Republican voters.
09:58Those are issues that you could be raising against her and forcing her to answer on.
10:02But he's that he's not he's often not doing that now.
10:06And I think Republicans, even those closer to him than Larry Hogan, wish he would stick
10:11to the script.
10:12Yeah.
10:13And Larry Hogan is not exactly close, is he?
10:16But let me get your sense on Kamala Harris, Stephen, because the rap against her is that
10:21she avoids the press like I do veggie bars.
10:24And that's not going to help her.
10:26It is.
10:27It is really not helping her.
10:29It's allowing her to sort of build some momentum.
10:31But sooner or later, she's got to start talking to reporters or talking, period, beyond just
10:37stump speeches.
10:38Right.
10:39Yeah, 100 percent.
10:40I mean, she has to sort of take that step.
10:42I think the situation that she's in, if you go back to the 2020 Democratic primary as
10:47a situation where you had very progressive candidates who were super popular, Bernie
10:53Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, they pushed everybody on that primary stage to the left, including
10:58Kamala Harris.
10:59And she may have been one of the ones that went even further, definitely further left
11:03than future President Biden did at that point.
11:06So she's sort of running from the ghosts of that primary, the 2019 debates, the 2020 debates.
11:13And we've seen the campaign try to shift and clarify that she doesn't believe some of those
11:18things now.
11:19But a lot of that stuff is still out there and she is going to have to be faced with
11:23it.
11:24All right, guys.
11:26Thank you both very much.
11:27We'll see how this sorts out.
11:29There is the outside issue we're following and the outside candidate we're following,
11:32one Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
11:34When you get him into the mix, the polls change mightily.
11:37All of this at a time when there's a back and forth on exactly who is supporting the
11:42independent presidential candidate.
11:44Joe Rogan seemed to be and now he's not.
11:46I don't understand, but maybe Robert can bring us up to date.
11:49He's next.
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13:57So another day, another scandal for the Harris Walz campaign.
14:00The honeymoon phase is just about over, just in time for the DNC.
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15:41All right.
15:42They call it the RFK Jr. factor, and this headline in the Washington Post kind of sums
15:46it up, that RFK Jr. and the third party, in fact, are now hurting Donald Trump.
15:53I don't know how Donald Trump feels about that or agrees with that.
15:56I wonder how Robert F. Kennedy Jr. feels about that.
15:59Fortunately, he's here to join us.
16:01Robert, very good to have you back.
16:03Good to be back with you, Neil.
16:06You've seen these numbers.
16:07You know these polls probably far better than I do.
16:09And they show, typically, that you take away more from Donald Trump.
16:15Do you agree with that?
16:17I mean, our polls show us pretty evenly split, but generally, from the beginning for the
16:23last 18 months, I've cut more, slightly more, into President Trump's support in most states.
16:34So when it comes to how that will factor out, it really obviously depends on how many
16:39state ballots he'll be on.
16:41And last time we chatted, you were very optimistic you could be on all 50.
16:45Do you still feel that way?
16:46Because right now, it's a long way from that.
16:50Right now, we have enough signatures to be on all 50 states.
16:56The state we've handed most of them in, some of the states have not yet certified, but
17:02we're going to be on the ballot in all 50 states, for sure.
17:08It seems that, and I could be misreading it, you're formally on about eight state ballots
17:13now.
17:14Maybe you have the votes to get on all 50, but it's looking like about eight.
17:19Am I right?
17:20No, I think we have quite a bit more than that, but some of the states, a lot of the
17:26states, Neil, don't certify until mid-August.
17:32So we've turned in our signatures, the signatures have been accepted, and they're going to be
17:39certified.
17:40It's just that the states hold it up.
17:42Nobody can get on the ballot.
17:45Nobody could be on more ballots than we are right now.
17:48So we're on all the ballots where the states have reached that deadline to certify.
17:55While I have you here, Robert, there was some confusion about who is supporting you and
18:01backing you.
18:04Comedian and popular podcaster Joe Rogan was supposedly quoted as your campaign as
18:09endorsing him, as he endorsing you.
18:12He says that is not the case.
18:16So which is it?
18:17Well, I don't know that my campaign ever, that I never thought that Joe Rogan endorsed
18:23me.
18:24Yesterday, he tweeted some very, very flattering, supportive comments about me.
18:33I never took that as an endorsement.
18:35I think other people said it was an endorsement, but I never felt that it was a, you know,
18:42that he had endorsed me.
18:45There are a lot of people who are very impressed with you and like you very much or quote you
18:48very often.
18:49You're a follower of God and all these others who say great things about you.
18:53But to a man or woman, not not across the board, they seem to always come back to this
18:58notion as a third party candidate.
18:59It's a wasted vote.
19:00I'm sure you've heard that a million times and it must be frustrating.
19:04How do you counter that?
19:06I don't know.
19:08I'm hoping that we figure out a way to counter it over the next three months, Neil.
19:11You know, the interesting thing is when when Ross Perot ran, he ended up getting 90 percent
19:20of the vote.
19:21But when they did that, the networks did a bit did exit polling and the exit polling
19:30showed that 36 percent of Americans wanted to support him as their first choice.
19:37But they believe that he couldn't win because the net media was telling them that he couldn't
19:42win.
19:43Right.
19:44So they said, you know, in order to not throw away their vote, they voted for for President
19:50Bush or President Bush or Gore.
19:55And and but if they had if that 36 percent had actually cast their vote for me, he would
20:00have won the election.
20:01There's a three way race.
20:03Oh, I mean, my my challenge is to persuade Americans that I can win if I if they believe
20:09I can win, we believe we will win.
20:13But, you know, as you can say, I've got I've got the entire media kind of this monolithic
20:18media that is aligned with the DNC telling Americans every single day that I can't win
20:25and then denying me the ability.
20:29This is the only network, major network that allows me to do interviews like this one.
20:35I've done a total of four interviews on all the other networks, ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, MSNBC
20:42in 19 months for interviews.
20:45Ross Perot was on TV every single night and they're telling Americans every day that I
20:50can't win.
20:52So we didn't have that kind of alignment with the political parties that we now have.
20:58And it makes it it does make it very difficult, but I think it's important.
21:02But if you think about it, Robert, you mentioned, you know, Ross Perot in 1992 when he was taking
21:08on, you know, a Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush, you know, he did get 90 percent vote,
21:15didn't get any electoral votes.
21:18The last successful third party candidate who at least got electoral votes, 28 of them
21:24ended up being George Wallace.
21:27So that, too, was a difficult year for Democrats because the notion was that he took away votes
21:34George Wallace did from Hubert Humphrey.
21:35And, of course, we know that was the year your father was tragically assassinated.
21:40But I only mention this now to say that there's very little likelihood that you move the meter
21:46much with all of that and all the attention.
21:49And then we have this bear story where the way I understand it, you took a bear and you
21:55brought it to the Central Park.
21:56I still don't understand it.
21:57It's just to a lot of normal people, Robert, it strikes them as kind of weird.
22:02And I'm just wondering, how is that going to help you?
22:06Well, you know, my I don't think you do.
22:11I think the bear story helps me.
22:13Now, I don't think the bear story helps me.
22:16I think that's the kind of story that the media wants to focus on issues that have been
22:21helping me in this campaign.
22:23When the media covers some of the issues that I want to talk about is why our kids can't
22:30afford houses, why we have the worst inflation now that we've had during my lifetime.
22:37The addiction that we have to war, the fact that 60 percent of kids in this country have
22:42chronic diseases and the polarization and division in this country that are tearing
22:47our country apart.
22:49And those are the issues that I and this corrupt merger of state and corporate power that I've
22:56spent a lifetime fighting against.
22:58And those are the issues that I would prefer to talk about rather than, you know, my colorful
23:03personal life.
23:05But of course, the media is is does not want to talk about those issues.
23:13And they need to.
23:14If you if you had somehow mixed the bear in with the fears of a bear market, you might
23:19have had the makings of something, but that's, you know, but you come and work for my when
23:25you come to my communications team, you don't want to go there, you know, but let me step
23:30back and get your sense of Lela.
23:32We talk about these crazy markets.
23:33And one of the things that tend to really rattle folks is when stock markets go into
23:38a free fall.
23:39They made up a lot of ground, as you know, by the end of the week.
23:42You know, a meltdown certainly didn't help, you know, Republicans when they were trying
23:47to keep the White House back in 2008.
23:51And the rap against them is that they hurt the party in power.
23:56Do you think that if this crazy market starts doing what it did on Monday again, that by
24:04extension you're in trouble?
24:06You know, Kamala Harris could be in trouble.
24:11And that will go the Republican route.
24:13Yeah, I don't think anybody is going to blame the market permutations on me.
24:19I think both political parties have responsibility for a really cataclysmic economy.
24:26If you look at, you know, irrespective of what the markets are doing, we have we have
24:33the first generation in history that is not going to be able to buy a home.
24:38These are issues that, you know, some of these are issues that are that are long term issues
24:44like how do we deal inflation and a thirty four trillion dollar debt that both President
24:49Trump and President Biden helped play, played the key roles in creating that debt.
24:54About 16 trillion dollars of that belongs to these two presidents.
24:58And I think that the issue and I need Americans to start asking is, do you want more of the
25:04same? Because if you vote for either of these candidates, that's what we're going to get.
25:10And I'm the only one that offers a way to unify our country, to bring Americans together,
25:16which is the only way to make us strong enough to deal with all of these problems.
25:21And I think either of those guys would help the process.
25:24There was talk, rumors that you and Donald Trump were discussing a job in his administration.
25:30I hadn't had a chance to talk to you about that, but now you have the floor.
25:35Is that true? Yeah, I'm not going to do to violate a trust by talking about the specifics
25:45of my conversation with President Trump.
25:47What I can tell you is that I'm in this race to the end and that I'm in it to win it.
25:53That's my objective. That's my mission.
25:55And, you know, I think Americans need a different choice other than what we've had for the past.
26:02Why would you be having a conversation with him at all?
26:06I guess that that was what struck me that I would have a conversation with anybody.
26:11And, you know, that's what I've said from the beginning of if if vice president, you
26:15had any conversations like that with Joe Biden or Kamala Harris of late?
26:20No, but I've I've asked them to have conversations with me.
26:24And so you can see why it would be interesting that you and Donald Trump did.
26:28Right. Well, yeah, of course, it's going to be interesting.
26:32But but I you know, like I say, I would talk to either side.
26:38If listen, I'm in this, you know, one of my primary issues is protecting children's health,
26:45ending the wars and and getting these presidents, these former presidents to to start dealing
26:52with the inflation issue with the within, you know, this this thirty four trillion dollar
26:56deficit, thirty five trillion dollar deficit.
26:58Now, oh, anybody who wants to talk to me about that, I'm going to talk to them about it and
27:04I'm going to talk to them about it in a congenial way and a respectful way.
27:08If they asked to talk to me, I'm going to talk to them.
27:11And I think we all ought to start talking with each other.
27:14Neil, I think it's better for our country.
27:16You know, when my uncle was preparing for the 1964 election, which he never got to
27:23participate in, he made a call to his opponent, Barry Goldwater, who is going to be his
27:30Republican opponent. And he said, let's do this differently.
27:34Let's have one airplane.
27:36I'll I'll provide my airplane, which the.
27:38Caroline K, let's see, you and I travel together across the country, be on the same plane
27:46with each other, stay in the same hotels, and then let's debate in every location in this
27:52country, just like Lincoln and Douglas did.
27:54Lincoln and Douglas traveled side by side in carriages.
27:58They stayed in the same hotels.
27:59They talked with each other.
28:01They ate dinner with each other.
28:03They then debated each other.
28:05And I think that that would be much better for our country and the kind of division and
28:10hatred. No, I think you're right.
28:12And those stories are legendary that JFK and Barack did indeed have such discussions.
28:16And sadly, your uncle was assassinated.
28:18We never got to see that. If I could just step back one final question for you while I
28:22have you there, you have a number of great admirers in this country and they respect
28:28your mind. And, you know, the grief you take being an independent candidate, particularly
28:33the grief from your own family members, some of them, and your own party.
28:37And I talked to one who's a big admirer of your family, but not of you and very bitter
28:43and angry at you saying that you're hurting Democrats and that you wouldn't be welcome
28:47back. That that to quote him, Robert F.
28:52Kennedy, Jr., is dead to me.
28:54He's dead to the party.
28:55What he did to the party was wrong.
28:57And I will never forgive him.
28:59And I and he's he said he made this claim saying that that he represents many other
29:04Democrats, big admirers of your dad and your extended family and iconic family.
29:09Does does that bother you when you hear that kind of talk?
29:12Because I'm sure you've heard it.
29:14Yeah, it does bother me.
29:15And I don't think that that's unique to that individual.
29:18I think there's a number of people who feel that way.
29:22It puzzles me. Neil, I feel if you went down the list of every issue that my father
29:28believed in, every issue that my uncle felt was a priority that I would check off every
29:34single one of those.
29:35I don't think I think I represent almost perfectly the Democratic Party of Robert
29:43Kennedy and John Kennedy.
29:44But I think the tribalism is so pronounced in our country and this division that people
29:50cannot see beyond the tribal identities.
29:53And I think it's really bad for our country that every issue and every person now has
29:57to choose a side.
29:59And if you're perceived as choosing the wrong side, then you're dead to them.
30:04And that is not healthy for our country.
30:06I mean, anybody who says something like that, I think they're raising questions about
30:12their own character and worldview.
30:15Why would somebody be dead to you?
30:17Why can't you?
30:18Why are we canceling people?
30:20Why can't Americans talk to each other?
30:23You know, I have family members who differ with me, but I still love them and I still
30:28talk to them. And, you know, I just came from a wedding with family members and had a
30:35affair with who had opposed me and who had spoken against me very publicly.
30:39But I I don't hate them and I'm not going to cancel them.
30:43I I think we all need to learn to love each other and differ with each other on various
30:49issues without hating each other.
30:53You should hear what I hear from my family members, Robert.
30:56It's always good seeing you be well.
30:59Remember that bear thing in any way that that marketing that you might be on to
31:03something. But, Robert, a great, very good seeing you.
31:06Have a safe weekend. You too.
31:10Robert F.
31:10Kennedy, Jr., will have more after this.
31:13All right. Stocks ending the week with a whimper, but at least not a whacking the way
31:19it started. We thought we were in the middle of a meltdown.
31:22Too soon to say whether that is the case.
31:24But what was a one thousand plus point drop that had some people talking a major
31:28correction or even the start of a bear market has yet to materialize.
31:33A lot of guesses as to why that might be and what happened today.
31:36Kenny Pocari, one of the best of the best late stone wealth chief market strategist,
31:40Kenny, better to end, I guess, on a whimper than than something a lot wackier.
31:45But what do you make of it?
31:47No, for sure, I think it is.
31:49So I'm comfortable with the way we ended.
31:52But, you know, it is a weekend and a lot can happen over the weekend.
31:54And we saw what happened last week and a lot can change.
31:56Right. But but actually what people need to understand is that the market was
32:01overvalued. There needed to be a catalyst to get some kind of a correction and
32:05pullback in place.
32:06Now, it just happened to be that massive Japanese carry trade, which ended up
32:10creating even more chaos.
32:12Maybe then it maybe then we would have liked, but it is what it is, because once
32:16that started to unroll, then the algos get involved and they start to unroll and
32:20then people get all crazy and nervous and get panicky about what's happening.
32:23And rightly so. And then they come out and they talk about, oh, my God, a Fed
32:26emergency meeting, which only creates more panic when you say it's an emergency
32:30meeting. But but thankfully, the Fed, you know, put that to rest and there was no
32:35emergency meeting, no emergency Fed cut, nor do I think there's going to be any
32:39intra meeting cut.
32:41I don't think they're going to cut before September, the September meeting, which I
32:45do think they're going to cut. And I think it's still going to be 25 basis points.
32:48I do not think it's going to be 50.
32:50All right, we had a chance to talk to the Chicago Fed president, kind of Austin
32:55Goolsbee, you know very well, and he was saying that, you know, we're not fixated on
32:59markets, we're not fixated on any one number or anything, but he tried to put kind of
33:03what you just said in context.
33:04I want you to respond to this.
33:06We were quoted right after we saw some of the report, the employment report and all
33:12say we can fix this.
33:14I don't want to state what you said.
33:17That's what the Federal Reserve's goal is, after all, to fix things and to make sure
33:21you don't go too extreme either way.
33:23My line about fixing it was about the dual mandate.
33:26And it was said in the context of there were a bunch of market participants saying the
33:31stock market is down so much the Fed has to take an emergency action.
33:36And I said, we're not in the business of responding to the stock market.
33:41We are in the business of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices.
33:47You know, the only thing that I questioned there, Kenny, was whether you can believe
33:51that, that the markets aren't going to bully this Fed, just like the markets aren't
33:55going to bully central bankers.
33:56But whether you want to call it bullying or not, the markets do intimidate the Fed,
34:01especially when they're freaking out, don't they?
34:04Well, they do, but I got to tell you, I'm actually very surprised.
34:08I'm actually very, very happy at the fact that the Fed did not get pushed into a
34:12corner. That's exactly what they wanted the Fed to do on France Monday night.
34:16They were all screaming emergency, emergency.
34:18We're going off the edge. And in fact, we're not going off the edge.
34:21And look at what look at how they reacted to to the initial jobless claims on
34:26Thursday. They came in 16,000 jobs weaker, not 160,000 jobs weaker, just 16,000.
34:32And suddenly everything's a buy.
34:35Oh, everything's great. Look at that.
34:36They take the market up back 550 some odd points.
34:39And so what I mean is this is where it gets a little bit frustrating for me because it
34:43feels kind of casino ish.
34:45And that's how it feels to a lot of people when they see this kind of action.
34:48But in fact, remember, we are in a seasonally weak time of year.
34:51We we can expect that the market's probably going to trend lower.
34:55Are the lows of Monday 51 16 the lows for this time of year?
34:59Very well could be.
35:01If it's not that it might be the 200 day moving average, which is about 50 20.
35:06One way or the other, it's going to be right in there.
35:08I think JP Morgan thinks that's the bottom.
35:10We think that's the bottom, you know, at least probably 51 16.
35:13But expect it to continue to be a little bit volatile and trend lower until we get
35:17towards the end of October.
35:20You're referring to the S&P 500, which is a good aggregate and good sense of where
35:24the market is, a general market, 500 stocks in that puppy versus 30 in the Dow.
35:28Kenny, great seeing you again.
35:29I appreciate it. Kenny Polcari on that.
35:31And we should point out, as we did on Monday, that that job report that got all
35:35this attention still showed a gain of one hundred fourteen thousand jobs in the
35:40meltdown, as it was being characterized at the time by many.
35:44We were losing hundreds of thousands of jobs every month.
35:47That that could still happen.
35:48I don't want to eliminate the possibility, but that is not not what is happening
35:53right now. The wild card could be what happens not only the election, but what
35:57happens half a world away in Israel as they look for an expanded war that could
36:02break out any minute.
36:05We've got the latest after this.
36:14All right, Israel isn't waiting for this expanded war.
36:17We understand that eliminated yet another senior commander for Hamas in Lebanon
36:21after striking an area earlier today.
36:24Jeff Paul is keeping up with these fast move developments in Tel Aviv, Jeff.
36:29Well, yeah, Neil is going to say it certainly feels a little bit busier out here
36:33today in Tel Aviv, with more people seemingly out and about running their errands
36:38that we saw in previous days.
36:39And that might have something to do in part with this push from the US, Egypt and
36:43Qatar to get both Israel and Hamas back to the negotiation table before tensions
36:49really boil over here in the Middle East.
36:51But even with Israel agreeing to send a delegation to this latest round of talks
36:55next Thursday, Israeli forces are pushing on with the war in Gaza.
37:00The IDF launching a new assault in southern Gaza.
37:03Troops there are said to be targeting Hamas militants who are still firing and
37:08operating in the ruins of war torn neighborhoods.
37:11The fighting is forcing families to evacuate.
37:13Once again, thousands could be seen heading from Han Yunis by car and by foot,
37:18carrying whatever belongings they could grab as they search for somewhere away from
37:23the intensified fighting.
37:24Some Gazans hope a new ceasefire deal is on the horizon, saying they've suffered
37:29enough. We are tired of this life.
37:32By God, we are fed up.
37:34Death is better than this.
37:36Let the country see our situation and find a solution.
37:42Now, despite talks of a renewed.
37:52All right, I apologize for that.
37:53We just lost our signal with Paul.
37:55But again, they're worried about this expanded war.
37:58They've already got it with fears that something could happen from Iran, from
38:01Hezbollah, from Hamas, from Houthi rebels, you name the proxy.
38:05It's all fear that it could happen as soon as this weekend.
38:08We will be following and looking for any signs of that.
38:11It's 10 a.m. Eastern time tomorrow with my Saturday show.
38:14In the meantime, the latest updates on that Brazil plane crash that seems to have
38:18claimed 62 lives, the horror of this is
38:23that it dropped 17000 feet
38:27in one minute. More to this.
38:35All right, we're not getting a lot of details on this Brazil plane crash that
38:40killed 62 people, at least 62 people, but Nate Foy has been trying to piece a lot
38:45of this together. He has the latest, Nate.
38:48Hey, Neil. So just in the past few minutes, Sao Paulo officials confirmed that the
38:52black box on this plane has been found, which will hopefully, hopefully provide
38:56some answers as to why exactly it went down.
39:00The AP is also just in the past few minutes reporting
39:05that the death toll is actually 61 rather than 62.
39:09They are citing an updated statement from the airline, as you see video of the
39:14plane falling right here, dropping 17000 feet in roughly
39:19one minute, according to flight tracking data.
39:21It's an ATR seventy two five hundred twin engine turboprop
39:25plane manufactured in Europe.
39:27This particular one was built back in 2010.
39:31Now, of course, the initial question is what made it fall out of the sky?
39:35Hopefully the black box will provide some answers there.
39:38The airline involved is called Vopass.
39:40It put out a statement saying there is, quote, no confirmation on how the accident
39:45occurred. The plane came down, you can see, in a residential area in
39:50the city of Vinhedo in Sao Paulo.
39:53The flight was headed for the Sao Paulo International Airport after taking up taking off
39:57in Cascavel in southern Brazil.
40:00Local authorities confirm what you're seeing right here, that homes were hit on its way
40:04down. And we did hear from a witness who spoke in Portuguese,
40:09but just roughly translating what he saw as you see firefighters on scene right here.
40:14He said that one of the homes that got hit belonged to an elderly couple that he
40:18knew. So he jumped over a wall.
40:21He ran over to try to help them.
40:24He insinuated that they were OK because he said they didn't want to leave because they
40:27had animals at the home.
40:30But we're trying to find more information about if anyone has been injured
40:35on the ground who wasn't a part of that flight.
40:38Brazilian authorities have blocked off the crash site.
40:41Local hospitals are ready to receive any patients.
40:44It's unclear, again, if there is any collateral damage on the ground.
40:48But we do know that the crash happened in an area with an active warning for for
40:52severe icing between 12,000 and 21,000 feet.
40:56And again, it was at 17,000 feet when it went down.
40:58So it was right in the middle of that range.
41:01The planemaker ATR put out a statement saying that it is aware of the crash
41:06and that it is doing everything that it can to support the investigation to try to
41:10find out what exactly went wrong, as well as support its customers.
41:14But right now, according to this newest update from the AP, 61 people tragically
41:19perished when that plane went down at about one twenty five local time.
41:24There's an hour time difference.
41:26So just before 1230 Eastern Time, Neil.
41:31Thank you for that, Nate.
41:33We'll have more.
41:33You got it.