Review Dan Analisis Pergerakan The Fed
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Rabu (07/08/2024) dengan Tema Review Dan Analisis Pergerakan The Fed".
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TVTranscript
00:00And this time we are already in contact with Mr. Kenji Putracahaya, Head of Business Development, PTFAC, Indonesia's Security.
00:12How are you, Mr. Kenji? Good morning.
00:14Good morning, Mr. Suki. How are you, sir? Thank you.
00:17Yes, thank you for joining us on MarketBuzz.
00:20I hope we are always healthy, Mr. Kenji.
00:22Okay.
00:23Let's talk about the global sentiment, which then became the focus,
00:27and in fact, it does have a significant impact on the weakening of the US economy,
00:31as well as the region.
00:32Domestically, the impact yesterday was significantly weakened.
00:37As for concerns from the recession in the United States,
00:39although the Governor of the Fed said,
00:41there is one statement that was said,
00:44maybe this will calm the market a little.
00:47But in fact, as far as this goes,
00:49this will then become a concern that is not only short-term,
00:53maybe it will become a long-term concern.
00:55And what should be anticipated by investors in the country?
01:00Okay, Mr. Suki.
01:02So, if we look at it from a macro point of view,
01:06the Fed's deficient attitude also calms not only the global market,
01:12but especially domestically.
01:14How? Because market players do expect this.
01:17So, the policies from the Fed have also given a signal,
01:21it will still be done for the number of flower seeds,
01:25the flowering of flower seeds.
01:27That's the prediction in September,
01:29around 25-50 basis points.
01:31Of course, that's a good sentiment for us domestically,
01:36because yesterday, the BI felt it would take a policy that was measured,
01:42not too aggressive, like the Fed in the flowering of flower seeds,
01:48so that the inflation is maintained,
01:50after that the economic growth is still there.
01:53I think this is a sentiment in the middle of the unblocked market yesterday,
01:58like our GML is also unblocked, Mr. Suki.
02:00Okay, but then yesterday HSG rebounded,
02:02in Haris Lhasa at level 7100,
02:04there must be a deep correction.
02:06What does this mean?
02:07The correction yesterday may only be psychological,
02:11or what is it actually, Mr. Kenji?
02:14Okay, if the correction yesterday,
02:17it was more because of market psychological factors.
02:21Why can I say that?
02:23Because there is also a massive sale,
02:25so there is also a short selling,
02:27both in the US market for high-risk products,
02:31one of them is in equity,
02:33and also in our domestic market.
02:35Regional also, the Bank of Japan,
02:37they are flowering,
02:39that is the effect,
02:41until yesterday to our domestic market, Mr. Suki.
02:45Okay, for the market in Rabu itself,
02:48what do you think?
02:49Will it continue to rebound?
02:51Then, if we look at the main Asian exchanges,
02:55this morning was opened mixed,
02:57when then what happened domestically,
03:00this may also have a significant impact on the HSG journey today.
03:04What is the projection like?
03:07If for the IHSG and the Rabu market position,
03:11it is still a consolidation, in my opinion.
03:14So the sentiment itself,
03:16if we look at it,
03:18this is during the first semester,
03:20financial reports have also started to be released,
03:24this is the sentiment itself,
03:26where the performance of the ME10 and ME10 big caps,
03:29we hope it can penetrate the market,
03:32and also the IHSG.
03:34But still, the support level,
03:36if possible, don't break below 7100,
03:40the second support is in the 7070 area for the IHSG.
03:46So we hope it can be strong,
03:48at least in the closing of this Rabu day.
03:51Direct sideways,
03:52but maybe there will be a possibility to enter the support level in 7070, right?
03:57Correct.
03:58Okay, what needs to be anticipated?
04:00It means looking at your prediction,
04:02predicting that the IHSG will penetrate the US,
04:06which sectors seem to need to be avoided first,
04:10or which sectors are interesting for us to discuss?
04:14Okay, for the sectors that I think we need to watch more,
04:20maybe the technology sector is one of them,
04:22because this is also impactful,
04:25how from the US companies,
04:27the technology sector is the main burden.
04:31For domestic itself,
04:33the technology sector is indeed challenging
04:37for the technical position in the past few years.
04:41Now for the sectors that can be a push for the IHSG,
04:51one of them is the finance sector,
04:54specifically the ME10 and ME10 big caps,
04:56which I think can still support the IHSG.
04:58Okay, if we go back to our discussion earlier,
05:02that the dofus attitude from the Fed is enough to calm the market,
05:08are you worried about the potential of the US recession,
05:13has it subsided or what?
05:17If it's about the potential of the recession itself,
05:21of course there is still concern,
05:25especially for global exchanges,
05:28regarding the potential of the recession.
05:31But with the dofus attitude shown by the Fed,
05:35the market is also optimistic,
05:37to wait,
05:38because this is what we expect from the beginning of the year,
05:41when the flower harvest,
05:42when will there be a big harvest,
05:45probably by the end of this September.
05:48I think for the market,
05:50especially for our regional markets,
05:53we will also be very moved by the sentiment
05:57or policy of the dofus attitude from the Fed.
06:01Okay, this is really an interesting thing,
06:04and actually quite anticipated,
06:06even though there is a sentiment related to the recession in the US.
06:10Okay, let's talk about what we will see later,
06:17about the IPO of PT Global Success Digital,
06:21or DOS, as it is, from Manhole to Indonesia.
06:24What do you think about this emittance?
06:31So for Samsung, the latest IPO,
06:35mainly from what Mr. Wicky mentioned,
06:38I see that the prospect in the industry is still interesting,
06:43meaning the probability of growth is still quite high.
06:46Now we expect,
06:47is it possible to meet the same demand from investors
06:52for the medium to long term,
06:54how do I see it?
06:56If there is enough,
06:58I think the growth can be quite okay.
07:01Okay, just maybe share some tips to investors,
07:07when we are waiting,
07:10just in case,
07:13who will do the IPO,
07:15and what needs to be discussed in detail,
07:19so that this can be a guidance for investors,
07:24can enter or not,
07:25to Samsung that will do the IPO.
07:27Is it seen from the sector, or what?
07:32Okay, this is a very interesting question,
07:35for Samsung that will do the IPO,
07:38I think if we are investors,
07:40especially traders,
07:42it's usually a bit difficult,
07:44because there is a track record,
07:45the history will not be the same,
07:47like we need 3 months.
07:49For investors, we need,
07:51for the first watch, of course, financial reports,
07:54the key factors, the position of the profit margin,
07:57the debt ratio,
07:59and also for the sector itself is actually interesting,
08:01why?
08:02For sectors that are quite volatile,
08:05such as the tech sector,
08:06there are a lot of companies that have just appeared,
08:11a few years ago,
08:12and want to do the IPO,
08:14I think it must be determined for the prospect of the business,
08:17prospectus can be read,
08:19in the long run,
08:20is there a target or concrete plan?
08:23And especially,
08:24the results and the use of the IPO,
08:27realistic,
08:28is it feasible to do?
08:30That's what I think.
08:31Okay, those are the indicators that need to be seen,
08:33before finally deciding to be able to enter,
08:35or to collect Samsung that has just done the IPO.
08:39Okay, while waiting for the visuals of Menhobo Scientific Indonesia,
08:43related to the IPO that will be there,
08:44we will have a break,
08:45Mr. Kenji and our investors,
08:47we will be right back after the break.