US passes message to Iran not to escalate at 'critical moment' for Middle East
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00:00Joining us now is Middle East Specialist, Professor of International Relations at
00:04Schiller University and the author of the book Mécanique des Conflits Cycles de
00:08Violence et Résolution, Myriam Benra. Thanks very much for being with us on
00:12the programme. Let's talk about this attack first of all on this US base in
00:16Iraq, the sort of overnight news if you like, potentially carried out by Iranian
00:20proxies. I mean do you think it raises the tension in the region even further?
00:26Well I think it comes after the promise made by the Iranian regime of
00:33retaliation against Israel and the US as the major ally of Israel in the region.
00:39So this is not a surprise because I don't think we were expecting full-blown
00:44confrontation despite the very excessive vocabulary used by the Islamic Republic.
00:52I think most experts expected this type of attack, a proxy attack, led in this
00:58case by militia groups that are very close to Iran for historical reasons, for
01:06military reasons. And I think we're seeing through this specific attack also
01:12convergence of resentments between different actors. For the situation in
01:19Gaza there's also a very deep resentment still at play in Iraq against the US
01:27presence for the reasons we know, the US occupation, the recent history of this
01:34country. So I think we're not, we're not, I'm not very surprised that I don't
01:38think most experts are because we, again, we were not expecting something more
01:43violent at this stage.
01:44Presumably though that won't be the end of it if you like. I mean there will be
01:48some other attacks, do you expect? What kind of scale do you expect them to be?
01:55So I think there are two, apart from Gaza and maybe the northern front with
02:00Hezbollah, I don't think that we are seeing more escalation elsewhere in the
02:05region, with also maybe the exception of the regular attacks led by the Houthis.
02:11But I think that the de-escalation process, if we go beyond the words of revenge
02:17that are used by most actors, is already at play. And the main question, which I
02:22think was recalled by Blinken, is indeed how to relaunch diplomacy negotiation
02:28around a ceasefire in Gaza, which will be very complicated now that Hamas has
02:35lost its main negotiator in the figure of Ismail Haniyeh. But this is the only
02:43way of containing violence, and which I think was very clear in the words of
02:49Blinken. Again, this is the policy that the American administration will follow
02:55and there will be no more significant military implication of the United States.
03:02We heard in the report just before I spoke to you, Turkey saying they don't
03:06believe at all that Benjamin Netanyahu is honest or truthful about wanting peace.
03:10Would you agree with that?
03:13Well, I think we have not really seen any convincing move coming from Netanyahu
03:20and his government towards peace or towards any appeasement of the situation.
03:28So I think Netanyahu is also one of the problems in a very complex equation.
03:33He's not the only one, but he's not shown any goodwill. And I think that everyone
03:38agrees. So we'll see also what happens in Israel, because the Israeli society is
03:44extremely divided nowadays, after long months of war, because of the situation
03:51of the hostages. Most of them never came back. They were never freed. A lot of
03:57Israelis are also very shocked by the levels of violence in Gaza. We need to
04:01bring some nuance into the picture. It's polarized, but I think there are more and
04:06more critics that emerge. So we'll see also what comes from internal Israeli politics,
04:13which may change the deal. But for the moment, Netanyahu looks like
04:20he wants to do his thing on his own. And we'll see how much influence the US can exert
04:27towards the escalation again, and especially in Gaza, because this is the main problem.
04:33Yeah, I mean, there are all sorts of efforts underway, aren't there, notably from Jordan,
04:37from other countries as well. I mean, do you have any hope for those coming to fruition?
04:44Well, I don't think that, as I said, I don't think that all the Israeli society wishes,
04:51and I'm also talking about part of the political elites of the political establishment.
04:56We're also seeing critics from the army, from Zahal. I don't think that Israel wishes to
05:02end up completely isolated in the region. So yes, I think that more and more pressure
05:10will end up, I hope, convincing Netanyahu to deescalate and to come up with a plan for the
05:17after war, because for the moment, that's also another problem. We don't really know what's going
05:21to happen to Gaza, what the plan is for the day after. But we're seeing more and more pressure
05:27from within Israel, which I think will be the key to a change.
05:32If there is some kind of attack on Israel, do you think, bearing in mind what happened in April,
05:37when there was a large international coalition that helped shoot down a lot of the missiles
05:43which were fired at Israel and drones, do you think that will happen again to the same extent?
05:50No, I don't think so, because it did not lead to the objectives. It did not allow Iran to realise
06:00the objective that it had when this attack, large scale attack, but that was still very
06:08contained because it did not provoke any mass casualties. So I don't think that Iran will
06:16operate the same way. But I think we are going to see the perpetuation of these proxy wars,
06:24wars in the war at different scales. But at the same time, as I said, apart from northern
06:33Israel at the border with Lebanon and Gaza, I'm not really seeing any sign of any direct,
06:40full blown confrontation between Iran, Israel and the US. And as I said, the US does not want
06:46to be drawn back into this type of confrontation. So Netanyahu will also have to
06:54take this into consideration.
06:56Good to talk to you on the programme today. Thanks very much for being with us,
06:59Professor of International Relations at Schiller University, Miriam Benraad. Thanks very much.