Severe winds expected in PH due to enhancement of southwest monsoon;
Another LPA monitored east of southeastern Mindanao
Another LPA monitored east of southeastern Mindanao
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00To give us an update on the recent weather disturbances and weather outlook,
00:04we have with us tonight Pag-asa Weather Specialist Daniel James Villamil.
00:10Good evening, Daniel.
00:12Good evening and to our viewers, as of 4 p.m. this afternoon, the center of the eye of Typhoon
00:17Carina was estimated at 550 kilometers north-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes.
00:25It is still a typhoon with a maximum sustained winds of 120 kilometers per hour near the center
00:30and gustiness of up to 180 kilometers per hour.
00:33It is now outside the Philippine area of responsibility and currently moving
00:37west-southwestward at 10 kilometers per hour.
00:41Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 is still in effect over Batanes.
00:46So over these areas, we can still expect gustiness of winds brought about by the typhoon.
00:52Typhoon Carina is now less likely to directly bring heavy rainfall over any portion of the
00:57country.
00:57However, the southwest monsoon or habagat enhanced by Carina will bring heavy to intense
01:02rainfall over Ilocos Region, Abra, Apayao, Benguet, Zambales, and Bataan for tonight,
01:09while moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over various localities
01:13in the western portion of the zone from tonight through Saturday.
01:18In addition to this impact, severe winds are also expected over some parts of our country
01:23due to the enhancement of the southwest monsoon.
01:26And as of the moment, there is also a gale warning currently in effect over the seaboards
01:31of Batanes, Cagayan, Mabuhayn Islands, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur.
01:37Over these areas, sea travel is risky for small seacraft and mariners of these vessels
01:42are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor.
01:46And as of the moment, we are also monitoring another low-pressure area or another weather
01:51disturbance inside our area of monitoring.
01:54As of 3 p.m. this afternoon, this low-pressure area was estimated at 985 kilometers east
02:01of southeastern Mindanao.
02:03This low-pressure area is less likely to develop in the tropical cyclone within the next 24
02:09to 48 hours, and we are not expecting any direct effect of this weather disturbance
02:13on any part of our country within the next 3 to 5 days.
02:18And that will be all for the weather report for today.
02:20Good evening.
02:22Okay, Daniel, there has been a post making the rounds on social media claiming that the
02:27volume of rainfall brought about by Carina and the southwest monsoon surpassed that of
02:32Pondoy's.
02:34Is there any truth to this?
02:36So based from our analysis, in the first place, it's actually not correct to compare
02:43the rainfall of the southwest monsoon episode to that of a rainfall from a tropical cyclone
02:49that directly made landfall over Central Luzon and passed through this area.
02:54So for reference, the rainfall of Pondoy was 300 millimeters of rainfall over a span of
03:00six hours, wherein the rainfall recorded for the southwest monsoon episode was almost 300
03:07millimeters in a span of 24 hours.
03:10So the most recent comparable event that we could compare this southwest monsoon event
03:17for 2024 will be the southwest monsoon event from 2012.
03:22So essentially, 300 millimeters of rainfall over the same amount of time was recorded
03:28at that time.
03:28So essentially, the bottom line is we cannot compare the rainfall of a tropical cyclone
03:33passing over the country as compared to the southwest monsoon, which is enhanced by a
03:38tropical cyclone.
03:40Okay.
03:40Taking off from the previous question, how can some of our kababayan validate this information?
03:47Does Pagasa have a hotline number that can entertain such inquiries?
03:51Yes, we have our direct lines.
03:56We have a direct line over here in Pagasa Weather Forecasting Center, 8926-4258, sir.
04:02Okay.
04:03And Daniel, because we are expecting the La Niña phenomenon this year, so is this a
04:10preview of what La Niña will be like?
04:13Is it going to get worse?
04:14Because considering that the damage is always so great and La Niña is expected, what do
04:21you think we can, what can actually be done?
04:24I mean, by both government and even citizens to be able to, because the damage is so bad
04:31and it takes so long to rebuild and to recover, so parabang a lot of time is also wasted.
04:37What can we do as individuals and government to be able to make everything better?
04:43For starters, sir, we are, our day-to-day operations here in the weather forecasting
04:49of Pagasa, we are in constant communication with local stakeholders such as other government
04:55units who are first responders such as the Office of Civil Defense, the NDRRMC.
05:00We are in constant communication for them.
05:03We relay our timely information to them.
05:06And so for starters, that would be, that is a good first step.
05:12And for the onset of La Niña, our latest statement was 70 percent of onset of La Niña
05:19in, for next month, for the month of August, September and October.
05:25So for La Niña, the typical characteristic of La Niña here in the country will be more
05:30frequent tropical cyclones making landfall affecting most of our country because the
05:36tropical cyclone formation is nearer the country as compared to the neutral condition of what
05:41we call the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
05:44Okay, thank you so much, Daniel James Villamil for your time, Pagasa weather specialist.