The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Sunday, July 21, that "Carina" has intensified into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while remaining almost stationary near Casiguran, Aurora.
In a 11 p.m. weather update, PAGASA has raised Signal No. 1 for the northeastern part of Cagayan province, specifically the municipality of Santa Ana.
In a 11 p.m. weather update, PAGASA has raised Signal No. 1 for the northeastern part of Cagayan province, specifically the municipality of Santa Ana.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Let's look at our latest satellite image.
00:03We are still monitoring the typhoon inside and outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
00:09The former typhoon Butchoy is still strong and is in the Tropical Storm category.
00:14It is outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility and has no direct effect on any part of our country.
00:22Our main focus now is the typhoon Karin that is inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility
00:29and it is still strong and is a severe tropical storm.
00:32As of 10 p.m., it passed through the 385-kilometer-wide coast of Casiguran, Aurora
00:39and the wind was blowing at a speed of 95 kilometers per hour near the middle
00:44and the wind was blowing at a speed of 115 kilometers per hour.
00:49The movement of the typhoon Karin is slow, it is almost stationary or it is not moving
00:54so we expect that a large part of Luzon and other parts of the Philippines
00:59will still experience a rainy season due to the combined effects of the typhoon Karin
01:04and the enhanced southwest monsoon.
01:09This is our latest track forecast according to our latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin.
01:15We already know the details that are included in our track forecast.
01:20We expect that the typhoon Karin will intensify into a typhoon category
01:26until the Philippine Area of Responsibility continues to emerge
01:31and if we can see, the possible movement of the typhoon is still far away from our land.
01:36Let us just highlight the area that is highlighted by light orange,
01:41that is the radius or the area where you will experience the strong wind
01:46of the typhoon Karin.
01:48Although as of now, we can see that not a single part of the land
01:53is included in the area highlighted by light orange,
01:56but because according to our latest track forecast, the typhoon Karin will intensify,
02:02so most likely in the next few hours, the radius of the typhoon Karin will expand
02:07and the area highlighted by light orange may be affected in some parts of our country,
02:14particularly in the area of the extreme northern zone.
02:18We already have a tropical cyclone wind signal in some parts of the northern zone area,
02:23so we have a lead time of 36 hours, so let us prepare for that.
02:27And if we can see, the typhoon category is still there.
02:31By the next 24 hours or tomorrow, we expect that they will be 400 kilometers away.
02:36They are in Aparikagayan, the center of the typhoon Karin.
02:40By Tuesday, they will be 310 kilometers away in Itbayat Batanes.
02:46By Wednesday, they will be 410 kilometers north-northeast of Itbayat Batanes.
02:51And by Thursday, we expect that they will be 655 kilometers north of Itbayat Batanes
02:56outside of our Philippine area of responsibility.
03:00And if we can also notice, this cone of probability,
03:03this is the triangle that we can see.
03:05There is no part of our country that is inside this cone of probability,
03:10so the chances are low that we have a landfall scenario,
03:14if there is one, most likely.
03:15So there is an area of Taiwan before our Philippine area of responsibility continues to emerge.
03:22So as we mentioned earlier, the area, this radius,
03:26or the area highlighted by light orange,
03:29or up to now, there is no part of our country that is inside this area highlighted by light orange,
03:37but because it is intensifying, it will most likely increase and widen this radius.
03:42So within the next 36 hours, it is possible that you will experience the strong winds
03:46of this typhoon Karina.
03:48The Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 is high in the northeastern portion of Kagayan or in Santa Ana.
03:54Our countrymen are preparing for the strong effects of this typhoon Karina
03:59and our countrymen are being careful there.
04:03When it comes to rains, let us know in the next slides
04:07which areas will be affected by the strong rains,
04:10the typhoon Karina and the enhanced southwest monsoon that this typhoon is intensifying.
04:17So our emphasis, this heavy rainfall is focused because of the typhoon Karina
04:22and the 100 to 200 mm of rainfall that will be experienced tonight until tomorrow night
04:28is heavy to intense in the extreme northeastern portion of mainland Kagayan
04:34and moderate to heavy rains that will be experienced in Babuyan Islands
04:39and in the eastern portions of mainland Kagayan and Isabela.
04:43When it comes tomorrow night until Tuesday night,
04:47the 100 to 200 mm or heavy to intense rainfall will be experienced in Babuyan Islands
04:52and in the northeastern portion of mainland Kagayan
04:55and moderate to heavy rains will be experienced in Batanes and other parts of mainland Kagayan.
05:04When it comes on Tuesday evening until Wednesday night,
05:08the heavy to intense rainfall or 100 to 200 mm of rainfall will be experienced in Batanes
05:15and moderate to heavy or 50 to 100 mm of rainfall will be experienced in Babuyan Islands.
05:21So we will notice that the areas that are directly affected by the rains
05:25of this typhoon Karina is mostly concentrated here in the areas of northern Luzon.
05:31So that is the area where the rain bands of this typhoon Karina are mostly felt.
05:38So let's focus on the areas that are affected by this strong southwest monsoon
05:43that are strongly affected by this typhoon Karina.
05:46So a large part of Luzon will experience rains,
05:49especially here in the western section of our country in the next few days or within the next 2 to 3 days.
05:56Based on our latest weather advisory,
05:59starting tomorrow, we expect heavy to intense rains in the areas of La Union,
06:05Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental, Mindoro.
06:09So those are the exposed areas here in the western section of our country.
06:14When it comes to tomorrow, here in Metro Manila, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija,
06:24Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, and Calamian Islands,
06:27we expect moderate to heavy rains tomorrow.
06:32So in the next few days, those are the areas that will experience heavy rains.
06:37When it comes to Tuesday, those areas will continue to experience heavy rains.
06:41We expect 100 to 200 mm or heavy to intense rainfall in the Ilocos region,
06:46including Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental, Mindoro.
06:51We also expect moderate to heavy rains for Metro Manila, Apayau, Abra, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan,
06:58including Nueva Ecija, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, and Calamian Islands.
07:05When it comes to Wednesday, those areas will continue to experience heavy rains.
07:12We expect heavy to intense rainfall in Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental, Mindoro.
07:21We expect moderate to heavy rains for Metro Manila, Ilocos Norte, Apayau, Abra, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan,
07:30Nueva Ecija, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, and Calamian Islands.
07:35To our fellowmen in the mentioned areas that will experience heavy rains within the next 2 to 3 days,
07:41be careful of the possibility of flooding or landslides due to the effects of heavy rains.
07:49When it comes to strong winds due to Hurricane Carina and Enhanced Southwest Monsoon,
07:55areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 is high will experience strong winds, most likely.
08:02It is also possible that Southwest Monsoon will bring strong to gale force winds or strong winds that we expect.
08:11Tonight and tomorrow night, areas of Mimaropa, Bico Region, Western Visayas, Northern Samar, and Northern portion of Samar Province,
08:20we expect strong winds due to Southwest Monsoon.
08:25Tomorrow evening until Tuesday night, areas of Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bico Region, and Visayas,
08:33we also expect strong to gale force winds.
08:41When it comes to Tuesday evening until Wednesday evening, areas of Ilocos Region, Central Zone, Metro Manila, Calabarzon,
08:48Mimaropa, Bico Region, and Visayas, we also expect strong to gale force winds due to Enhanced Southwest Monsoon.
08:58When it comes to our ocean, we do not have gale warnings for now, but it is very dangerous,
09:03especially for our countrymen who have small sea vehicles,
09:07we expect strong to gale force winds for the next few days.
09:19So based on our outlook, or what we expect over the next few days,
09:24we expect this typhoon to intensify into a typhoon category for the next 24 hours.
09:31That is why we have raised the Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 in Maysanta Ana.
09:35We expect it to move north-northwest to northward until Tuesday,
09:43and it is possible that it will leave our Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning.
09:50We do not rule out the possibility of rapid intensification or sudden intensification of this typhoon.
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