China Is the Primary Challenge for U.S. Strategy
The U.S. and 28 other countries are in Hawaii conducting the world's largest international naval drills called the Rim of the Pacific Exercise, or RIMPAC.
On this episode of Zoom In Zoom Out, TaiwanPlus reporter Jaime Ocon sits down with David Santoro, CEO of PAC Forum, a security think tank that specializes in the Indo-Pacific region. We first zoom in on the latest updates at RIMPAC this year, then zoom out to understand the imminent challenges faced by the U.S. and its allies.
On this episode of Zoom In Zoom Out, TaiwanPlus reporter Jaime Ocon sits down with David Santoro, CEO of PAC Forum, a security think tank that specializes in the Indo-Pacific region. We first zoom in on the latest updates at RIMPAC this year, then zoom out to understand the imminent challenges faced by the U.S. and its allies.
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00:00Welcome to Zoom In Zoom Out, your global look at news from Taiwan and around the world.
00:16I'm Hamil Khan.
00:18The US and 28 other countries are currently conducting the world's largest international
00:23Navy drill, the Rim of the Pacific, also known as RIMPAC.
00:27The event takes place every two years and is part of the US's effort to expand security
00:31cooperation with its participants.
00:33Now, to better understand RIMPAC as a whole and its push for this idea of collective security,
00:39we're joined by David Santoro, CEO of PACForum, a think tank here based in Honolulu, which
00:44specializes in geopolitics and security in the Indo-Pacific region.
00:48David, thank you for joining us.
00:50Thank you for having me.
00:51Now, let's first zoom into RIMPAC.
00:54Why is this exercise important to the United States and other countries taking part?
00:59So I would say two reasons.
01:01One is it's critical because it helps get visibility to what the United States and its
01:09allies can do when they actually cooperate militarily.
01:13And visibility is important because that's how you show what you can do and change potentially
01:18the calculus of your adversaries.
01:21It's number one.
01:22And then number two, as you're training, you actually learn to do more and to be, in this
01:28case, more military interoperable with the countries that you're working with.
01:33So there's an ally component to it and there's a competitor's component to it.
01:37If you had to kind of pick one, which one is leaning more towards?
01:41Is the goal for RIMPAC then this show of force or is it the demonstration of unity?
01:45It's a little...
01:46I'd say it's about both.
01:47Frankly, it's about learning to work together better, but also sending a message that we
01:53are working together.
01:54We are prepared to respond to potential threats and risks and show what we're capable of doing.
02:01You talked about interoperability.
02:02For our viewers, can you kind of explain what does that mean in terms of military-to-military
02:07interactions?
02:09So working better together, working and using tools and capabilities in a way that makes
02:15sense if you're different countries.
02:17So how can we work together using different tools and capabilities in a way that will
02:22have the maximum effects?
02:24And most countries that are participating in RIMPAC, they are from the Indo-Pacific
02:29region, but also a handful from Europe as well, UK, France.
02:34Is this a trend that we're seeing, EU countries, European countries, expanding their presence
02:38in Asia?
02:39Absolutely.
02:40In fact, every time I'm in Europe, you see European countries paying attention to what
02:45is going on in the Indo-Pacific.
02:47They want to learn what's going on.
02:51They are also increasingly concerned about the so-called China challenge.
02:56So that's one aspect.
02:57The second aspect is you have European countries that have vested interests and a presence
03:02in the Indo-Pacific, both in the Indo and the Pacific, and that's particularly the case
03:07of the UK and France.
03:09So yes, they want to do more and learn more about the Indo-Pacific, but also some of them
03:14have been in the region for a long time, and therefore operating in the region is natural
03:18for them.
03:19You mentioned China in a RIMPAC.
03:22That name has been mentioned too many times.
03:25Is this the consensus among the countries participating in RIMPAC that there is this
03:29growing threat that is China, as you say?
03:32It is the major challenge, yes.
03:33I mean, this is essentially the primary competitor, not the only one in the Indo-Pacific, because
03:39we worry also about North Korea, for instance.
03:42But certainly this is what we see as what the United States calls the pacing challenge,
03:48the challenge to come.
03:49And as you know, we have active wars in Europe and in the Middle East, and we worry that
03:54we could get one here.
03:56And so RIMPAC is a way to actually respond to what could happen and hopefully deter a
04:03future war.
04:04The Philippines did not send a naval ship to RIMPAC, and local media in the Philippines
04:09is citing strained resources in the situation regarding China and the South China Sea, the
04:14clashes there.
04:15And also Taiwan has not been invited yet again.
04:19What does this say about commitment from and to the allies if the two countries that are
04:24affected most by China are not present at this exercise?
04:27Well, I think they're very busy as it is.
04:29There's active tension, certainly for the Philippines, also for Taiwan, but it's very
04:35active in the Philippines.
04:36So I think what it says is that the allies that can actually contribute resources to
04:41military exercises can do that here, but there's such an intense activity over the Philippines
04:49and in and around Taiwan that the focus is going to be there in theater.
04:54In your opinion, there has been calls for Taiwan to observe RIMPAC, not send a ship,
05:00but just kind of stand on the sidelines.
05:02Why is that difficult for just getting that participation to happen at RIMPAC?
05:06Well, I think you'll see an increase of Taiwan participation in terms of seeing what's going
05:14on in military exercises.
05:17You'll see a lot more activity and words from allies voicing support to defending Taiwan
05:24if something is happening.
05:26So that's going to change, and it has been changing for a long time, but there's still
05:29a number of things that haven't been done.
05:32And frankly, I worry that what we're doing now is not sufficient and not fast enough
05:38to respond to the problem of the challenge posed by China.
05:42And one more thing about Taiwan, you mentioned about maybe future cooperation.
05:45Where do you think we're going to see that?
05:47Is that military-to-military, law enforcement, or what do you think will be the most likely
05:51avenue for cooperation?
05:53I think it's across the board.
05:54I think we'll see more diplomatic engagements, certainly more military cooperation.
06:00We'll see change maybe in policy by some actors, and we've seen, for instance, Japan going
06:06vocal about what it could or could not do vis-a-vis Taiwan.
06:11So we'll see change across the board, not by everyone, but certainly a lot more people
06:18are paying a lot more attention to what could happen.
06:24Well now let's zoom out.
06:25With the United States involved in so many regions around the world, do you think it's
06:30being stretched too thin?
06:32I mean, certainly what we have trouble doing in the United States is prioritizing.
06:40So we say in our strategy documents that China is the primary challenge, the pacing challenge.
06:47But we also have an active war in Europe, and then growing tensions, and frankly, war-like
06:54scenarios or war-like situations in the Middle East.
06:58And so it's very difficult to essentially respond to everything.
07:03And so I think moving forward, we will have to rely a lot more on our allies to essentially
07:10share much of the deterrence and defense burden.
07:15Because the United States, even though we can still do a lot, can't do everything on
07:20its own.
07:21So what you'll see is a lot more rebalancing of roles and responsibilities towards our
07:27European allies, essentially want Europe to do more so that the United States can do more
07:33in this particular region.
07:35And just to be specific, you're saying European allies to do more at Europe so that the United
07:40States can focus on Asia?
07:41Is that what you mean?
07:43Basically yes.
07:44Although as we've just discussed, Europeans are also interested in the Indo-Pacific.
07:48They have a role and a presence here, and they won't stop caring about the Indo-Pacific.
07:54But I think we want Europe to do more in Europe to respond to, obviously, the Ukraine war
08:00and what's going on with Russia.
08:02And there are many areas in East and Southeast Asia where there could be some form of military
08:07intervention that might be needed, the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, as well as the
08:12South China Sea.
08:14Do you see the United States prioritizing any one of these cases in case one or more
08:18flare up at the same time?
08:20No.
08:21I mean, I think we certainly worry about what could happen over Taiwan.
08:26But I will tell you, for instance, that personally, I think the chances of a major war, including
08:33a nuclear war, are probably higher in a contingency over the Korean Peninsula.
08:39Because if there is a contingency on the Korean Peninsula, you have many more actors involved.
08:45You have the Russians, the Chinese, the Japanese, the Koreans, and of course the United States.
08:51In a Taiwan contingency, it would certainly be very bad, but you'd have fewer actors immediately
08:56involved.
08:57So we worry about all potential contingencies.
09:02I would argue that right now we are not worrying enough about the potential for escalation
09:07in the Philippines.
09:08So I worry about the first shots being fired, and then having a situation in which we are
09:14forced to respond or not respond with all the consequences that either choice would
09:19lead to.
09:20So I worry about this.
09:22And of course, not responding would be a problem, and responding would get us into a situation
09:28that we are trying to avoid by deterrence.
09:31And again, back to RIMPAC, the point of RIMPAC and all these exercises is to prevent us from
09:37getting into that situation in the first place.
09:39And I, again, worry that we're not doing enough.
09:43How has that aim of deterring a potential aggressor like China evolved in recent decades?
09:48Are we seeing a new Cold War, or is this something different?
09:52I would argue, yes, we are in a Cold War.
09:54It's not the same Cold War as when we had with the Soviet Union, but we are certainly
09:59in a Cold War.
10:01We have strengthened deterrence.
10:02We are strengthening deterrence.
10:04We are strengthening our alliances.
10:06We are trying to engage new partners, working with partners and allies in a trilateral,
10:14quadrilateral manner.
10:16We're trying to build a coalition that would essentially strengthen collective deterrence
10:20and defense.
10:22So all that is good, but we have China rising.
10:26We have a balance of power that is shifting, not necessarily in our favor.
10:30And so even though we're doing good things, I think that we're not doing enough good things
10:35and not fast enough.
10:38The U.S. power projection in the Western Pacific is implicitly aimed at China, but at the same
10:42time the United States and its allies are going to great lengths to try not to antagonize
10:47Beijing.
10:48They use vague language, exclude Taiwan, et cetera.
10:51Do you feel this is undermining the strength of those deterrence efforts?
10:55It certainly makes it a lot more difficult.
10:58So yes, you're right, a number of countries, they also want to have a good relationship
11:05with China, or at least not antagonize China.
11:09And therefore it makes it a lot more difficult for them to sign up to a coalition that would
11:13focus on deterring China.
11:15And so this is a challenge that we have to deal with.
11:19And I want to circle back to the Taiwan question, because you mentioned the reliance of the
11:25United States trying to reassure trust into those allies and partners, but with Taiwan
11:30it's a bit difficult because it can't participate on a formal basis.
11:34What do you think Taiwan can do to muster up its own deterrence?
11:38So I think Taiwan needs to spend, two things, Taiwan needs to spend a lot more than it is
11:43spending right now, and it needs to spend a lot more wisely.
11:49And by that I mean that the focus should be a symmetric warfare capabilities.
11:54I don't think Taiwan needs big ticket items.
11:57It needs to focus on what will help delay an invasion, for instance, just because this
12:03is the best use of its dollars.
12:06And in Hawaii, there was footage that emerged of a Taiwanese Coast Guard ship that docked here.
12:12You know, in terms of law enforcement, Coast Guard cooperation, do you think there's a
12:17possibility of the United States and Taiwan maybe cooperating in that area in the future?
12:22Certainly a possibility.
12:23I think we'll see a lot more interactions with Taiwan, regardless of who wins in November,
12:30for instance, I think we will see that happening.
12:33But again, this is up to certainly the United States, but up to Taiwan as well.
12:39I want to see Taiwan spend more and spend more wisely.
12:42And I also want to see Taiwan focus on the major threat, which is a potential invasion.
12:48Yes, we know that Taiwan is being economically coerced in many ways by Beijing, but the bigger
12:56threat is really the invasion threat.
12:58And so this is where I think Taiwan should focus.
13:01And my last question is looking at RIMPAC as a whole, in your opinion or your wish list,
13:07what do you want out of RIMPAC in terms of either actions that the United States and
13:12its allies and partners are taking or collective steps to maybe make some sort of security
13:15plan?
13:16What would you like to see from RIMPAC?
13:18Well, I mean, so back to the two points that I was making originally, which is I want to
13:22see better coordination among allies.
13:25That would be a good deliverables.
13:26And I think we'll see this.
13:28And I want to see a good, strong message to potential adversaries, hopefully changing
13:33the calculus that they have, particularly Beijing, in terms of thinking that maybe China
13:38could get aware with doing things that we're trying to prevent.
13:42So the second one is probably difficult to see, but I think you will see a good outcome
13:49when it comes to better working together as United States and allies.
13:54Thank you for joining us, David.
13:56It was great to hear insights on today's show.
13:58My pleasure.
13:59Thank you for having me.
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