Poll Shows Majority in Australia Want To Support Taiwan
In this special episode of Zoom In Zoom Out, Washington-based commentator Wenchi Yu brings us global views from world leaders.
This week, to learn more about how Australia is competing against China for influence in the Pacific, Wenchi speaks to Richard McGregor from the Lowy Institute, who’s written numerous books on China including "XI Jinping: The Backlash" and “The Party: The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers.”
This week, to learn more about how Australia is competing against China for influence in the Pacific, Wenchi speaks to Richard McGregor from the Lowy Institute, who’s written numerous books on China including "XI Jinping: The Backlash" and “The Party: The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers.”
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00:00Australia has had a few challenging years of managing its relationship with China. During
00:18the COVID pandemic, then Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for a global inquiry into
00:23COVID-19's origin and angered China. China retaliated by imposing trade restrictions
00:30on a broad range of Australian goods. Since the current ruling Labour Party came to power
00:35in 2022, the Albanese government has pursued a better relationship with China. Nevertheless,
00:43Australia has been bolstering its defence by enhancing military ties with the US and
00:48other Western allies through AUKUS, a security treaty between Australia, US and the UK.
00:55The competition for greater influence in the Pacific has also heated up, with China eagerly
01:00courting the Pacific Islands. Today we speak to Richard McGregor, who is a senior associate
01:07with Lowy Institute, the premier think tank in Australia. He's a former Beijing and Washington
01:13Bureau chief for the Financial Times, and the author of numerous books on East Asia,
01:19including the latest one, Xi Jinping, The Backlash. His earlier book, The Party, The
01:24Secret World of China's Communist Rulers, 中国共产党不可说的秘密, is available
01:30in Taiwan. Welcome.
01:33Thank you.
01:34So how has Australia's relationship with the region evolved over the last 20 years or so?
01:41Let's hope our audience understand how Australia views itself in the region, its security,
01:47economic and trade, and of course, people to societal relationships.
01:52Australia is a funny country. We are a former British colony, which is all a massive country,
01:58in fact, which has always struggled to come to terms with two things, the legacy of colonialism,
02:03the impact on indigenous people, plus our picture in Asia. So Australia's relations
02:09with Asia, I guess, are characterized by a number of things. A concerted diplomatic
02:14effort, which is waxed and waned, but basically in one direction to build strong ties with
02:21Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, China, less so Taiwan. But the second thing is that
02:28Australia basically has been at the core of Asian modernization in this respect. In fact,
02:35modernization in first Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, most of all China, has all relied on
02:42Australian raw materials. And that's really how Australia has gotten rich. We are a U.S.
02:48ally, a close U.S. ally, but our largest trading partner by far is China. So therein relies
02:56a ton of tension.
02:58Well, does Australia consider itself as part of Asia?
03:02We play the odd man in rather than the odd man out. We used to have a color bar on immigration,
03:08and that started to unravel from 1965. So if you come to Australia these days, it is
03:14a very multicultural country, and you go out in the suburbs, and they're not white suburbs
03:21anymore out in the big suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne. Big Chinese, Indian, Bangladeshi,
03:27Middle Eastern, Vietnamese. It's hard to judge that impact on our politics, but it's not
03:33the country that it was 40 years ago in that respect.
03:36Yeah. A lot of Taiwanese, too, actually emigrated to Australia and, of course, a lot of Chinese,
03:42too. So let's delve into Australia-Taiwan and Australia-China relationships. First of
03:48all, how does the Australian government view Taiwan versus China? And how do the people,
03:54Australian people and society view Taiwan versus China?
03:59We established ties in 1972 with China, sort of in the middle of other countries. I think
04:04since then, we've been exceptionally cautious in relations with Taiwan, and I think it's
04:09become more cautious on both sides of politics in recent years. And I guess that's because
04:15of the change in Taiwan-China relations, particularly the election of the DPP in 2016. For example,
04:23Australia used to send ministers to Taiwan maybe once every year or two years. They don't
04:29do that anymore. The last time was 2012. We were negotiating a free trade agreement with
04:34Taiwan, but that was knocked on the head in 2017.
04:38So Australia's relationship with Taiwan, in some way, depends on the cross-relationship.
04:45So if Beijing is nice to Taiwan, then indirectly, it affects, you know, how Australia interacts
04:52with Taiwan as well. Is that right?
04:56If you look at polling about Australian attitudes to Taiwan, we did polling last year on what
05:02Australians would do if there were a Taiwan contingency, in other words, a conflict, cross-straits
05:08conflict. It was, you know, a 70-80% said we should assist Taiwan. But I guess once
05:15you get to would we have boots on the ground in any conflict, the number went right down.
05:21But actually, it didn't go down that far. I think it was 40-45% said we would even assist
05:28in the military contingency, which to me was pretty high. And I think it's a product of
05:33the way that China's behaved in recent years.
05:35I want to touch on the DPP, as you mentioned several times. So Taiwan's new president,
05:41Lai Ching-de, was just inaugurated. And of course, China launched two days of air and
05:46sea drills surrounding the island as punishment for so-called separatist acts following his
05:53inauguration. For most Taiwanese people, interestingly, this is almost a routine and sort of expected
06:00reaction from Beijing. However, for the rest of the world, they hold a more alarming view
06:06and emphasize the need for Taiwan to significantly beef up its defense. What is your view? Why
06:12is there such a gap in perceiving China's military threats to Taiwan?
06:18So China just keeps getting, for want of a better way of putting it, better and better
06:22at this. And I know the Taiwanese are used to it. It's much like the South Koreans are
06:27used to screaming from North Korea. But the time will come when it's real. And I guess
06:34people in the Australian government, like in Washington, look on Taiwan and would like
06:39to see more alacrity, not less.
06:42So you do believe the threat is pretty real?
06:46Yeah, I think so. You know, Beijing is not going to stop. Taiwan public opinion is not
06:52interested in being ruled by Beijing. And the trouble is that Beijing has been so bad
06:57at reassuring anybody in Taiwan that the only tools they have left in the kit, apart from
07:03disinformation and the like, are military. I don't know what's going to happen. I don't
07:08think there's going to be a war tomorrow. I don't think China wants to fight a war.
07:12But yes, I think the situation remains dangerous. People always ask me, is there going to be
07:17a war? And I say, well, you know, they say, when's the most dangerous time? And I would
07:21say, you know, every year for the next 15 years.
07:24Yeah, but at least it sounds better than some of the years that's given from Washington,
07:29D.C. 2027, right?
07:32I understand why that's the case, because she asked the PLA to be ready then. But if
07:36you think about it, 2027 is also the year that Xi will be seeking a fourth term. All
07:42indications point to that. Do you start a war at that time, particularly after three,
07:47four years of what is likely to be subpar economic growth, which is going to eat away
07:52at Xi's standing and allow his many enemies inside China to maybe start to organize a
07:59little bit?
08:00How does the Labor Party's foreign policy diverge from the Liberal Party? I mean, specifically
08:05with regards to China and maybe military and defense issues.
08:10The foreign policies diverge very little. The Labor Party has always had ownership of
08:15the China relationship because they are the ones that broke out of the conservative straitjacket
08:19in the 70s and started the relationship. Since then, it's been pretty bipartisan. The Labor
08:25Party made a big decision just to not speak in public as critically of China as the previous
08:31government did. Their policy is do more, say less. Look at the concrete things they're
08:36doing, for example, joining Japan and the U.S. in patrols off the Philippines. That's
08:41the major direction.
08:43Since we talk about Quad, you know, also we want to talk about AUKUS. I think it would
08:48be really helpful if you explain how they're different and their objectives.
08:53Well, the Quad is not a security alliance. In fact, we don't really know what the Quad
08:59is. That's one of its problems. We would hope it would be more, but they've had various
09:03initiatives which haven't come off. And of course, the position of India has become very
09:07muddied in the wake of the Russia's invasion of Ukraine and criticism of Modi personally.
09:15So the Quad is not quite at a standstill, but it needs a bit of energy and we'll see
09:20whether we can give it that. AUKUS is a much, much bigger deal and a very big deal, actually.
09:26I think that's one area where I'd criticise the current Australian government because
09:30I don't think they've really prepared the people for how big AUKUS is. In about two
09:35or three years in Perth, in Western Australia, we're going to have a permanently rotating
09:40or nuclear powered subs from the U.S. and the U.K. They're not stationed there, we can't
09:48say that, but they're going to be there permanently and then rotated. And that is really a bit
09:53of a game changer for Australia.
09:56Is some worry all the actions, whether it's AUKUS, Quad or other types of security alliance
10:06that's new, may actually provoke China? Is it more about preparedness or is it provocation?
10:14I don't think we're provoking China. I mean, China's engaging in its own massive military
10:19build up. Xi Jinping said to Putin, we're making changes never seen before in a century
10:26I mean, how do they expect people to react, to sit on their hands? So, but it's difficult,
10:31you know, I think we focus a lot on Xi Jinping. I understand why we do that. But if he were
10:37to leave the stage tomorrow, just imagine that. China's Taiwan policy would not change.
10:44China's South China Sea policy would not change. Its view on the Senkaku, the AU islands would
10:49not change. These are baked into the cake, into the CCP governing system and global outlook.
10:56And so, these aren't problems that we fix and they go away. So, it's a matter of deterrence.
11:04You know, we all want to maintain the peace, and I would say, including China. But there's
11:10a number of issues which are going to be pretty intractable and are going to require long-term
11:17work by all of us.
11:20Well, speaking of which, so among all these world crises, what worries you the most? Some
11:29worry about US presidential election in November, potential conflicts in South China Sea or
11:34across Taiwan Strait, Middle East crisis spinning out of control, Russia advances in Ukraine,
11:42or unregulated AI taking over humans or climate change?
11:48Can I say all of the above? How do we prioritise that? I think one of the most interesting
11:56things is the relations between Russia, China, North Korea, to some extent, Iran. I think
12:05the China-Russia relationship is very strong, but whether it can be really embedded and
12:11sustained along with other autocratic regimes and, you know, leveraged in a way that America
12:20manages to leverage its allies, it's a very contested region. You know, China wants to,
12:26particularly in Southeast Asia, is very, very good at internalising the view in most of
12:31those countries that, you know, it's game over, we're going to win, America's going
12:34to lose, get with the program, we'll look after you. And I think that's very wrong.
12:39I think it's very contested, as long as countries like Australia and Japan, to a lesser extent,
12:44South Korea, maybe Singapore, are willing to, you know, stand up for their interests
12:50and sovereignty. I think in one respect, the Americans have been successful under Trump
12:55and Biden. China's not leaving the region. We can't divorce China. It's an immensely
13:00important economic partner, even for Taiwan, of course. But at the Pacific nations where
13:07the pressure is rising, so I don't quite know where it's going to end up. But, you know,
13:14I certainly fear trouble ahead because of Taiwan, but also the South China Sea.
13:19Yeah, that's to be seen for sure. Well, with that, thank you so much for the interview today.
13:26Thank you.
13:28That was Richard McGregor in conversation with Taiwan Plus News. You can find more
13:33stories from Taiwan and around the world on the Taiwan Plus website.
13:37Thanks for watching and see you next time.
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