Warren Sharp Discusses NFC East and NFL 2024 Outlook
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00:00We are back on Newswire, welcoming in Warren Sharpe. You find him on X.com at Sharpe Football.
00:10Lots to talk about as training camps are underway. We had six teams rookies show up yesterday,
00:16Warren, so getting a little bit closer, inching closer to when veterans start to report and
00:22we really get these conversations underway. But I wanted to talk about the NFC East with
00:27you. It is a division that, of all the quirky stats in the NFL, one of the ones that remains
00:34true season over season. We have not had a repeat winner in this division since 03-04.
00:40We just keep rotating it 18-19 years in a row now. What are the expectations that maybe
00:47we get a repeat winner this time around? It looked like we were going to have it last
00:51year and then the Philly collapse made it not so. Do you like a repeat winner this season?
00:57I don't. I don't. In fact, I bet some nice odds. I got like plus 230. I think you could
01:02still get plus 180 on it for the Philadelphia Eagles to finish in first place in the NFC East
01:08and the Dallas Cowboys to finish in second place. Some books have the one-two exact offering.
01:13I think that the Philadelphia Eagles are more poised. I think one of the biggest problems
01:18for the Philadelphia Eagles last year, although record-wise, I wrote a lot about this in my
01:23book, about how their season started compared to the 2022 season when they went to the Super Bowl.
01:29Both teams started 10-1. You say, hey, these teams are both on the right trajectory, same
01:34trajectory. Last year's Philadelphia Eagles looked almost nothing like the 2022 version.
01:402022 version, when I ran back my numbers on that team, you actually had to, like as we
01:46were analyzing the Super Bowl, we were out in Arizona, I believe, we had to strip away
01:50their fourth quarters because they were leading by so many points through the first half and
01:55through the third quarter that they were just running the ball, doing nothing in the fourth
01:59quarter. So their stats look like, oh, this team's a pretty run first team. But when in
02:03reality, they were a pass first team that was aggressively trying to build these. They
02:07jumped out on opponents early. The 2023 version, last year's version of the Philadelphia Eagles
02:12did not do that whatsoever. In fact, they were trailing more at halftime. They had to come
02:16back. They had to play all four quarters of games far more frequently last season. And one
02:21of the reasons, in my opinion, was their coordinators. You know, their coordinators, they
02:26lost both of them after they went to the Super Bowl. And so they replaced them in-house last
02:31season. Last season, those coordinators on offense and on defense did not do a very good
02:36job whatsoever. And so this year they went mercenary style. They went outside the building
02:41and brought in two hired guns. We're going to have a much more aggressive Philadelphia
02:45Eagles team this upcoming year, I think, on both sides of the football. And then Howie does
02:49what Howie does. He brought in some talent. He's got some better players there. They're a
02:54little bit more balanced. They have, at least from a namesake, a stronger run game, a
03:00stronger run focus with Saquon Barkley there in the backfield to give that added threat.
03:07And this is a team that should be able to have better success. I think Jalen Hurts was a
03:11little bit banged up last year as well. So he's a little bit healthier and they're just more
03:16improved at all levels of pretty much their entire roster with one glaring exception, and
03:21that is along the offensive line where they lost Jason Kelsey. And Jason Kelsey was a
03:26huge part of that tush push, which I ran numbers on that. And the tush push alone on
03:32fourth and one, there were 97 plays where Jalen Hurts snuck the football over the last
03:37three seasons. Those 97 plays accounted for more rushing EPA with those 97 than every
03:45single other team's entire rushing attack over the last three years. That's how efficient
03:51that play was for the Philadelphia Eagles. If they can get something close to that without
03:55Jason Kelsey, they'll probably be fine. If that drops off a tremendous amount because
04:00Jason Kelsey is not there at that spearhead of that tush push along the offensive line,
04:05then they could step back there and they're going to have to figure out other ways. But I
04:09still think that they are going to win the NFC East because I think the Dallas Cowboys are
04:14just a little bit too fragile from a roster build perspective. I don't think they have the
04:19depth. I don't think they have the talent as spread out as much. And then we can talk about
04:25their defense if you want to, Mike, or if we need to move on. But their defense, they
04:29lost their defense coordinator and they thrived so much on all the takeaways that I don't
04:34know if they're going to be able to get those this season. Three straight years where they
04:38were plus 10 in turnover margin or better. That's happened only eight times in the last
04:43two decades where a team has gone three straight years at plus 10 turnover margin or better.
04:48And none of those teams had a double digit positive turnover margin in that fourth season.
04:54And in fact, the average was only plus four. So if you take away six turnover margin
04:59difference from the Dallas Cowboys, there's no way they're winning the same number of games in 2024.
05:04Yeah, fair to say. By the way, Eagles right now, minus 134 on FanDuel to go over ten and a
05:12half wins. The Cowboys set at nine and a half minus 166. Keep in mind, the Cowboys are an
05:18extremely public team. You can't always just look at what the juice looks like, what the
05:22number looks like from day to day. I wanted to focus on your favorite team in the NFL.
05:27That's the New York Giants returning Daniel Jones and Brian Dable and Joe Shane, your
05:31three, your favorite triumvirate of NFL personalities. Their win total at six and a half.
05:38It's being bet to the under minus 140 under six and a half wins. Do you think they have
05:43any chance to get to seven more? The challenges are scheduled on that offensive line.
05:48I mean, that offensive line must do a better job, but it's also Daniel Jones recovering from
05:52that ACL. How healthy is he going to be in 2024? And then how frequently is he going to
05:59take these sacks? Because this team, their sack margin last year was 51 minus 51, which is
06:06the most in any year that I've tracked. There was no other team that was worse than minus 41
06:10since 2000. Far back as I can go. They have to figure out a way to reduce the pressure on
06:16Daniel Jones and reduce the number of sacks that he's taking. This is not just on the
06:21offensive line. This is also on Daniel Jones himself. And my fear is that with this ACL
06:25injury that is recovering from, it's not going to be able to get the ball quite out quite
06:29as quickly move around quite as it definitely all throughout the course of the season.
06:32That's the only fear that I have with the New York Giants. The roster isn't great. The
06:36Washington Commanders have a new quarterback, a new head coach. They're ascending a little
06:40bit more. I think the Giants are going to be better than they were last year, but that's
06:44not saying much. But that being said, I still think that they've got a lot of work to do
06:49in a very competitive NFC East.
06:53Lots of coordinator changes. Warren mentioned both Philly, both Vic Fangio, Kellen Moore
06:58are new. The Giants have a new defensive coordinator. The Cowboys have a new defensive
07:02coordinator and Washington changed everybody. So coaching changes are something to watch
07:07in this division. You'll find Warren here all the time on the grid, but go find his NFL
07:12preview, chock full of information that you'll need for the 2024 season. Warren, thanks
07:16for being on. We'll see you again soon.