IHSG makin turun 0,48% ke 7.234,94 sesi I Selasa (16/7). Sektor barang konsumsi primer -0,74% dengan UNVR -2,73%, CMRY -2,86%. Sektor infrastruktur -0,47% denga BREN -3,04% dan sudah melemah diatas 12% dalam sepekan, EXCL -1,79%. Sektor keuangan -0,43% dengan BBCA -1,00%. Sektor barang konsumsi nonprimer +1,09% dengan MAPI +6,47% Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street berakhir di zona hijau, Senin, melanjutkan reli Jumat karena meningkatnya ekspektasi akan kepresidenan Donald Trump kedua, setelah upaya pembunuhan yang gagal meningkatkan harapan akan lingkungan regulasi yang lebih longgar.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us.
00:02In this segment, we will review how the business is doing today.
00:06The gas company is experiencing a deep correction.
00:10And we remind you again, you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive on 08.12.8788.723.
00:18And right now, we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Philip Jermi
00:22as a Financial Educator and Technical Analyst at Sukor Sekuritas.
00:26Mr. Philip, good afternoon. How are you?
00:29Good afternoon, Mr. David. How are you, Mr. David and all of the IDX Channel team?
00:32Good afternoon, Mr. Philip. Thank you for taking the time to be on IDX Channel.
00:36Today, the gas company continues its deep correction.
00:42The level of 7,300 has been left far behind.
00:45Even the intraday today was up to 7,213.284.
00:51After experiencing an increase above 7,300,
00:54how do you see the direction change that happened in the last two days for IHSG?
01:00Especially from a technical point of view, Mr. Philip.
01:02Yes, let's take a look at some of the things that caused the correction.
01:06If we take a look at the correction of IHSG from the price of 6,630.
01:11We can see that the last lowest price of IHSG before it touched 7,300
01:17was around 6,600.
01:216,600 is very far.
01:23If we look at the rally from IHSG, it's already very far without correction.
01:27If we pay attention, the last two weeks, IHSG strengthened,
01:30only these last two days, this week, we opened with a correction.
01:33If we want to discuss technically, this is a very normal correction.
01:37Why? Because the first one, at 7,350, we see there is a strong resistance area.
01:42Where it has been four times, IHSG has touched 7,350, but failed.
01:48And of course, to succeed in the breakout, it will need a big sentiment.
01:52Or a big push from the market that will make IHSG break out
01:58to the all-time high area again.
02:00However, now the correction is still quite normal.
02:02The probability will drop to a level of maybe 7,100 for IHSG.
02:07Okay, Mr. Philip, for the next few days, where will it go, sir?
02:11When you said earlier, there is a potential to return to 7,100 for IHSG.
02:16Yes, if I look at it, the potential is likely to be suppressed
02:20If we look at the shape of the candle today, the correction is also quite large.
02:23We see the red is quite large.
02:25Then it will be enough to be corrected this week.
02:29The movement will be limited correction with a note of the support level area.
02:33Maybe we can put it at around 7,175 to 7,185.
02:42Mr. Philip, looking at the potential of IHSG,
02:46today, the weakness is quite deep.
02:50Yesterday, IHSG has reached the level of 7,300.
02:54If we look at the year-to-date, it is positive again.
02:58However, in today's trade, with the continuation of the second correction this week,
03:03the movement in IHSG year-to-date is again experiencing a minus.
03:09How do you see the position of IHSG
03:13with the year-to-date position, Mr. Philip?
03:18Okay, if we look at the year-to-date,
03:22the trend pattern of IHSG is still very uptrend,
03:26if we look at the year-to-date.
03:28Even with the correction and fluctuation, it is still quite uptrend.
03:32That's from the secondary trend.
03:34However, if we look at the big trend line,
03:36the big trend line is drawn from around 2022, we can say.
03:41Since 2022, IHSG has been moving very sideways.
03:45If we look at the big chart, the movement is very sideways,
03:49with the highest point at 7,380 and the lowest point at 6,600,
03:54where it is also affected.
03:56The fluctuation that occurs is quite normal in IHSG
04:01if we look at the trend from the past two years.
04:04So, if we look at the year-to-date,
04:07the movement is relatively strong,
04:10but if we look at the big trend line,
04:12the shape of the trend of IHSG is quite sideways.
04:16Okay, the big cap stocks that are today the burden
04:20for the shareholders are from several sectors,
04:23including infrastructure.
04:25The brand that was previously a pillar for the shareholders
04:29in recent times is more tense, Mr. Philip.
04:32Even the infrastructure sector has experienced a boost,
04:36but the brand does not yield,
04:38because some other sector investors have experienced significant boost.
04:43What is your analysis?
04:45The weakness for the brand, at least in the last week,
04:48the correction has been above 14%, sir.
04:51The analysis for the brand.
04:54Okay, the analysis for the brand, if we look at it,
04:57this brand, if we look at it, the correction is very far.
05:01From the correction that is the farthest,
05:03in May, we went down from 11,600,
05:06it corrected up to 5,300, almost 50%.
05:10There is also a deal with the brand entering the FCA,
05:13entering the full call auction.
05:15After the full call auction, there was another sentiment,
05:18so the brand rose to around Rp 10,000.
05:21However, from the initial correction,
05:24if we look at the volume, the first volume,
05:27it is unlikely that the brand will return to the previous Rp 11,000.
05:31Rp 11,800, which is the all-time high area,
05:34based on the volume, it is unlikely.
05:36Because the volume of the second rally
05:39is not as large as the first volume.
05:41That's the second one.
05:42Then the market will of course be a fear factor.
05:44So Rp 10,000 becomes a psychological number,
05:47where we see the brand, if from the price of Rp 5,000,
05:50Rp 10,000 is the second target.
05:52So at Rp 10,000, it really has to sell.
05:55Even though it reaches Rp 10,300, Rp 2400,
05:58there is a high possibility that there will be a massive take profit,
06:02so the correction is reasonable.
06:04This is still a brand that needs to be monitored again,
06:06because if I look at it, there is still a potential for correction,
06:08even though the support is not far away,
06:10at around Rp 8,100.
06:12Coincidentally, there are already questions on our interactive WhatsApp.
06:15Mr. Filip, there is Mr. Seho Tang from Medan, North Sumatra.
06:18Thank you for joining us, asking about this brand.
06:21The position is stuck, sir.
06:23At Rp 9,200, is it recommended to cut loss
06:26or more towards averaging down?
06:28Mr. Filip.
06:29Yes, if I look at it now,
06:32hold, but with a note,
06:35if it drops below Rp 8,100, it must be cut loss.
06:39Okay, just hold for now,
06:41the level of support that can be observed and observed is at Rp 8,100,
06:47but the possibility of returning to Rp 10,000 is still open.
06:50Is it wide enough, Mr. Filip?
06:52There is still a potential for direction,
06:55because if I look at it, the drop volume is not too big,
06:58so there is still a potential for direction,
07:00but we have to look at the price action around the support area,
07:03which is at Rp 8,100.
07:05Okay, still from the infrastructure, Mr. Filip,
07:07in addition to the brand that is the burden, there is Telkom, sir.
07:11Today, it was able to drop above 2%,
07:13the closing of the second session dropped to 1.90% at Rp 3,100.
07:18The lowest level today, at Rp 3,090.
07:21How do you see the weakness for Telkom?
07:24Is the support above Rp 3,000 still strong enough so far?
07:29Yes, Telkom is doing a reversal pattern,
07:33or a reverse pattern with the strong support area,
07:36or the large support area is at Rp 2,700,
07:38but as mentioned earlier,
07:40the support level area is actually the largest again,
07:43it is around Rp 3,090.
07:45So above Rp 3,000, it should be solid for Telkom.
07:49This is a reasonable correction,
07:50why can it be said reasonable?
07:52First, it has broken out from the double bottom neckline area that was formed,
07:55then it retakes back to the neckline area.
07:58As long as the movement TLKM is still above Rp 3,000,
08:01it will still be safe and there will be potential to continue.
08:06What is the recommendation for Telkom, sir?
08:09So the recommendation for Telkom,
08:11we can buy the recommendation with the note of Rp 3,000 area level support,
08:16so because this is indeed speculative,
08:20we have a small stop loss,
08:22but we can buy,
08:24yes speculative buy,
08:25to be able to get a cheaper price.
08:27Okay, greetings to the infrastructure sector,
08:29which today has become a burden on the sector
08:32and also gives a burden to the household.
08:35Let's move on to the banking sector,
08:38especially from the Big Cap Banking,
08:40BBRI has undergone a sufficient correction today,
08:44BMRI is closed flat,
08:46BBCA is less than 1% and BNI is less than 0.90%.
08:50Overall, how do you see the movement of Samsung in this Big Cap Banking, sir?
08:55The positive sentiment is actually there,
08:57the Dovis signal from The Fed is the latest,
08:59then the Bank Indonesia also gave a signal that it will bloom in the fourth quarter,
09:04and also the investors are still waiting for the release of the second quarter earnings in 2024.
09:10Yes, that's all the sentiment that will push the banking sector,
09:13that will push the entire banking sector to reverse again.
09:17The first reason why the banking sector had a correction
09:21was because there was a delay,
09:22a delay in the flow rate,
09:23but it has been announced,
09:24about the fourth quarter,
09:26even though it is still a prediction.
09:28What we also pay attention to is that the net foreign sale is very large,
09:31if we look at the selling pressure,
09:32why can the BRI rally drop to Rp 4,000 because the net foreign sale pressure is very large,
09:36now it's going in the opposite direction.
09:38If we look at the net foreign buy activity,
09:42the net foreign buy,
09:44the inflow of the banking sector is already quite good,
09:46the inflow into the banking sector,
09:48so this can be a positive sentiment too.
09:51For the BBRI,
09:53if we look at the BBRI,
09:55after the rebound,
09:56the rebound is quite long,
09:57from Rp 4,000 to Rp 5,000,
09:59technically this is a normal correction,
10:02a normal correction,
10:03until the potential will go down to Rp 4,500 first,
10:07there it can be our second buying area at Rp 4,500
10:10before the BBRI reversal.
10:12And if it's true,
10:13in the quarter, the Rp 4,000 will go down,
10:16most likely this will continue the uptrend.
10:19Based on the analysis of several big cap banks,
10:22then the prospects until the end of the year,
10:24and in the middle of the volatility,
10:27it seems that the big cap banks still have quite a lot of opportunities,
10:30even though the global condition does not support it,
10:32but from a fundamental point of view, it is still considered quite good,
10:35and again, the investment decision is still in the hands of the IDF channel.
10:39Mr. Filip, we will hold first,
10:41I will try to convey the position of the closing of trading
10:44in the second session today first.
10:47And the shareholder in the closing of trading in the second session today,
10:50the Samkabungan family,
10:52was closed again in the red zone,
10:54weakening at 0.75%,
10:57and closed at the level of Rp 7,224.293,
11:01this position is not much different
11:03with the lowest intraday level throughout today's trading,
11:06at Rp 7,213.284,
11:09the highest level today at Rp 7,294.792,
11:13a few minutes after the opening,
11:15this level was touched,
11:16and again, it was blocked to move forward to Rp 7,300,
11:20and the Samkabungan family index
11:22experienced a fairly deep correction again.
11:24We move on to some graphical information
11:26that was collected by our Redaksi team.
11:28Let's just go straight to the first graph,
11:31we will try to see the position of the closing
11:34of some other indexes in trading in the second session today,
11:37such as MNC36, Jakarta Islamic Index,
11:40and also LQ45.
11:42MNC36 weakened at 0.74%,
11:45Jakarta Islamic Index was depressed at 0.82%,
11:48LQ45 weakened at 0.88%,
11:52at Rp 904.549.
11:55We move on to the next graph,
11:57the sectoral movement rotation,
12:00non-primary consumption still leads to strength
12:03at 1.62%,
12:05technology supply strengthens at 1.15%,
12:08primary consumption still weakens at 0.78%,
12:11and infrastructure is still depressed at 0.74%.
12:16Next, we will try to see the stocks that today
12:19are still experiencing significant strength,
12:21which fell into the top gainers range
12:23in the middle of the Samkabungan family index weakness.
12:26Next to the graph, there is BSBK,
12:29Inco today also rose to Rp 3,800 per share,
12:33Pegas strengthened at Rp 1,610,
12:36and ISEA was closed and strengthened at Rp 378 per share.
12:41Meanwhile, the stocks that are today
12:43being dominated by BKEP Pemirsa stocks
12:47from the bank contributed by BBRI
12:49were closed and weakened at Rp 4,730 per industry.
12:52There is Astra International,
12:54closed and weakened at Rp 4,380 per stock.
12:57There is Aman today,
12:59deep correction at Rp 11,225,
13:02and infrastructure, there is Telkom,
13:04weakened at Rp 3,100 per share.
13:07Trading updates at the end of the second session today,
13:09and hopefully it can be a reference for you,
13:11especially in dealing with trading in the coming days.
13:20We will be back and stay in your place,
13:22because after this we will try to see
13:24what Samsung has recommended,
13:26and we will be back in a moment.