Sahel junta leaders 'doing absolutely nothing to solve' root problems of terrorism
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00:00Well, for some analysis, we can speak to Douglas Yates, a political science professor at the
00:04American Graduate School in Paris, specializing in African politics.
00:08Thank you so much, as always, for speaking with us.
00:11First, what do you make of this Sahel alliance between Mali Niger and Burkina Faso?
00:16Can they accomplish what they're setting out to do, notably in the fight against jihadists?
00:20Right.
00:21So these three individuals, because that's really what it is, are each of them military
00:29rulers who came to power by coup d'etat.
00:32They're simply unfrequentable by ECOWAS.
00:36Sanctions had been imposed upon them, and the official position of ECOWAS was that these
00:40individuals should be preparing elections for a transition.
00:44So none of these three individuals really has any place in ECOWAS.
00:49And as a result, they've had their governments pull out of ECOWAS, and they've created this—well,
00:56it's a showcase confederation of Sahel states.
01:01These are three highly poor, highly indebted, landlocked states with almost no autonomous
01:09ability to solve the food crisis.
01:12And you go, what are they doing?
01:15Well, there's an answer.
01:17These are client regimes of Russia.
01:21So they've renounced France.
01:23They've renounced the West.
01:25And in January, they even renounced their African brothers in ECOWAS as clients of the
01:31West.
01:32But if you say, where, where are they getting their resources?
01:35They're getting them from Russia, arms sales from Russia, information operations being
01:41conducted by Russia, a new nuclear power agreement with Russia.
01:46So what we're really looking at in the bigger picture of international relations is these
01:52three states shifting their alliance to Russia.
01:57And what are the consequences of that shift going to be?
02:00And is there anything that ECOWAS or France or other Western countries can do about it?
02:05Well, OK, so the three borders region, which is kind of the coherent way of thinking about
02:11these three countries, that point where the three countries intersect, is suffering a
02:16curse of jihadism, organized crime, banditry, intercommunal conflicts, and cross-border
02:24military operations.
02:26So what these three military rulers would like to do is eradicate that.
02:32But that's exactly what has failed, both with the U.S. policy and the French policy.
02:38To treat these people as terrorists and to seek to find a military solution by eradicating
02:46them has not worked and will not work.
02:48So the real question is, can these three generals with Russian aid create development, reduce
02:54poverty, provide social services, and give young teenagers in the three border regions
03:00better career opportunities than jihadist terrorism, human trafficking, and smuggling?
03:07And how likely is it, do you think, that they can do that?
03:09I mean, is that what their priority is, or are they also going to try and solve it militarily?
03:14Yeah, well, I think that first of all, they won't solve it militarily, because we've seen
03:19billions of dollars spent by the world's great powers trying to solve it military.
03:26These generals represent the southern tips of their countries, and they're fighting their
03:31own citizens who live in the marginalized north.
03:36They weren't able to do it with billions of dollars of aid and military hardware coming
03:41from the West.
03:42I don't think they'll be able to do it with a handful of Russian mercenaries.
03:45Now, as far as solving the deeper problems, why there is terrorism, they're doing absolutely
03:52nothing to solve those problems.
03:55Azawad is a claim of the Tuaregs in the north of Mali.
03:59There is no plan of these three generals with their new confederation to do anything to
04:04recognize the legitimate claims of internal colonialism by the peoples of the north in
04:11those countries.
04:12All right.
04:13It is a grim picture that you paint, but thank you, Douglas Yates, as always, for your analysis.
04:18That's Douglas Yates, a political science professor at the American Graduate School
04:21in Paris, specializing in African politics.