Heavy rain and damaging winds to hit parts of Tasmania, beginning July 14-15, 2024.
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00:00Heavy rain and damaging winds to impact parts of Tasmania and possibly Victoria on Sunday and
00:05Monday. And while severe weather warnings aren't current right now, we expect them to be issued
00:10later on Saturday, especially around eastern and southeastern parts of Tasmania, for damaging winds
00:16and possibly heavy rainfall. And talking about rainfall, we already have flood watches current
00:21for large parts of Tasmania, including the populated areas of southeastern Tasmania.
00:26That means if you live in this highlighted area, the forecast rainfall could lead to flash and
00:30riverine flooding and possibly into minor flooding as well. So make sure you pay attention to areas
00:36around here with that heavy rainfall on the way. But what's driving all of this weather? Well,
00:41we zoom out a little bit, you can see a low pressure system developing off the coast of
00:45New South Wales on Saturday, and it's going to rapidly intensify as we move through the day on
00:50Saturday and Saturday night. And it's going to take an unusual direction. Generally lows here
00:54will grow to the southeast, but this one is actually going to go to the southwest. And that
00:58means the weather is going to shift into eastern parts of Tasmania and southern parts of
01:04Victoria. So as we get into the afternoon on Sunday, notice the really strong winds and rainfall
01:09wrapping around this low pressure system, starting to impact eastern and southeastern parts of
01:13Tasmania, and some of that energy and weather also getting up into parts of South Australia
01:18and southern Victoria. Then as we move into latter part of Sunday, you'll see the low getting pretty
01:23close to Tasmania with widespread heavy rain and gusty winds, some possibly damaging. Now I must
01:29stress this is just one scenario, some of our guidance has a low further north, some further
01:33east and some further south. So that's why it's important if you live in this area or know someone
01:38that does, to continue to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings across the weekend
01:43in Tasmania and southern Victoria. Then as we move into later Monday and Tuesday, continuing to see
01:48that heavy rain and strong and possibly damaging winds impacting parts of Tasmania and southern
01:53Victoria. Now when we start talking about rainfall, pretty dry across Saturday, but note the rainfall
01:59starting to pick up as that rain shifts westward, which is highly dependent on the exact track and
02:05intensity of this low pressure system. But by the time we get into Monday morning, we could see
02:10widespread falls of 50 to 80 millimetres through southern and southeastern parts of Tasmania,
02:15with isolated falls even higher than that, and that's what could cause our flash and riverine
02:21flooding issues. But not only are we going to have rainfall and wind issues, this cold air is going
02:26to spread across much of southeastern Australia, so we could see widespread areas of snow. So that's
02:32going to start in Tasmania on Saturday, shown by these pink areas through here, but also note for
02:37elevated areas of alpine areas of Victoria and New South Wales, snow starting to develop there as we
02:43move through Sunday. But note as that air gets further north with some moisture, we could also
02:48start seeing snow developing around the central and even northern tablelands of New South Wales
02:53on Monday, and that could continue into Tuesday and Wednesday as well. Finally, the other impact
02:59of this weather system will also be huge seas and swells. So this is a very large low pressure
03:05system, and that's going to lead to some very big seas and swells off the coast of New South Wales,
03:10where we're likely to see hazardous surf warnings there across the weekend and into early next week,
03:14but also note towards parts of Tasmania and even into bloody western parts of Victoria,
03:19we could see very large seas and swells there, with damaging and hazardous surf also possible
03:24as we move through Sunday, and particularly into Monday and Tuesday. So with all this weather going
03:29on across southeastern parts of the country, particularly across Tasmania and southern
03:34Victoria, remember to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings via our website,
03:38app and social media, and when the weather does increase, listen to all advice from emergency services.