Why Beryl Could Be A Harbinger For An Unusually Dangerous Hurricane Season: Meteorologist

2 months ago

On "Forbes Newsroom," meteorologist Dr. Marshall Shepherd explained why Hurricane Beryl may be a harbinger for a bad hurricane season.

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Transcript

00:00And is it normal when you see a storm continuing to make landfall

00:04in other islands? Does it usually become stronger or does it weaken as it hits different places?

00:10It really depends. Oftentimes some of these Caribbean mountains can have elevated terrain,

00:15hills and mountains that can weaken the storm or tear it down some. The water temperatures are

00:21not a problem with this storm. They're certainly warm enough to continue strengthening. So our only

00:26real hope is that we can get some of that wind shear to knock back the storm a little

00:30bit in terms of intensity. Because the more it stays over that warm water, if there wasn't

00:36really weak wind shear around or wasn't really strong wind shear around, that thing could really

00:40pop. So I think the next several days will be very important because our models are pretty good

00:46between about three and five days, particularly with track. The intensity forecast, Brittany,

00:51I'm just going to be honest, as a scientist in this field, we are much better with intensity

00:56forecast with hurricanes than, I'm sorry, with track forecast than intensity forecast. We

01:02generally are much better with telling you where it's going. There are often oscillations in terms

01:06of intensity because that intensity is often governed by things happening inside the hurricane

01:12that we can't always measure. So let's talk about that track a little bit. You did touch on that's

01:17going to be hitting southeast Texas. So let's say you're in southeast Texas. Maybe, maybe, maybe.

01:22Potentially, potentially. It has the potential to hit southeast Texas. What are you doing right now?

01:28Because we're coming up on the holidays. Oh, I know. So I think around Sunday, Saturday,

01:36Sunday and Monday would be the time frame, probably late Saturday into early Monday,

01:41that if it were to make a slight jog to the northwest and affect the Texas coast, I think

01:45that's the time frame that we're dealing with. Again, I think the next day or so are critical. I

01:51think by late Wednesday, early Thursday, I'm going to have a better idea of whether Texas is going to

01:57be in play or it's going to stay in northern Mexico. I think some of our best models are hinting

02:02at both. And that's just the challenge of models. We have different models with different assumptions

02:06and different physics in them. But typically within about four to five days, they start to converge.

02:12So I think that we will have a much better idea. But right now, let me emphasize, places like

02:18Brownsville and Corpus Christi are certainly very much in play. And if you're living in those places,

02:24you should be paying close attention, perhaps already thinking about plans again, because once

02:29we clarify the track within the next day or two, you only have a slight window of time at that

02:35point to make decisions. You indicated yesterday, Dr. Shepard, that we are, we should brace ourselves

02:41for an active hurricane season. I know you said there's something on your radar after Beryl. Can

02:47you talk about that? Has that developed since yesterday? I think that when it's after Beryl,

02:52we're still keeping an eye out. But I don't think that that storm is going to develop into

02:56anything like it initially looked like. And part of the reason may be because of Hurricane Beryl.

03:02One of the things that these hurricanes do is they churn up cold water. And if there's a storm

03:06coming behind that initial storm, that cold water may be sort of, you know, kind of tamp down the

03:14potential development or intensity of the next storm. And so, couple that with increasing wind

03:19shear. I don't, I am not as concerned about that second storm as I was perhaps three days ago when

03:25you told me. But I think right now all eyes are on Beryl. But I want to emphasize, and a lot of

03:31people may have missed this, there was actually a sea storm that made landfall in Central America,

03:37Mexico, a few days ago. So we are already up to what would be the D storm. And we're not even into

03:444th of July yet. So this is a bad omen for the hurricane season, which we have been projecting

03:51for a month. I've written in Forbes several months ago, warning that this was going to be an active

03:56hurricane season. And so far, it's unfortunately hyperactive. And we usually see the bigger storms

04:05later in the season. Do you think we're still going to see those later in the season? Or did

04:09everything just move up by a month? No, no, no, we're, no, no, no, no. That's what's so concerning. I mean,

04:15August, September, and October, that's prime time for these storms. And there's no reason to believe

04:21that we won't see this type of activity. I hope not. But we certainly expect hurricane activity

04:28to start ramping up in August. And so we're just getting a preview. And I hate to call it an

04:34appetizer, because it's a bad taste in my mouth. But we're getting a preview, perhaps, of what the

04:40peak of the season will bring. And that's why people need to be cognizant of what's going on

04:46in the Caribbean, if you've got plans to travel in those parts of their country or the world,

04:52or even here in the U.S. Gulf Coast and even East Coast. This is going to be one of those

04:57seasons like we saw in 2005 and in 2020 and 2021. I fully predict that we will probably run out of

05:05hurricane names as we did in those seasons. And in the past, we've had to go to the Greek alphabet

05:11when we run out of names. But this year, for the first time, we'll be using a supplemental

05:16name list, a new set of names. Dr. Shepard, per usual, I thank you so much for coming on here,

05:23breaking down the latest, informing our viewers. Dr. Shepard, thank you so much for the conversation.

05:28Thank you so much. And everyone, please stay safe.

Why Beryl Could Be A Harbinger For An Unusually Dangerous Hurricane Season: Meteorologist

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