On "Forbes Newsroom," meteorologist Dr. Marshall Shepherd discussed Hurricane Beryl, and why he says it is an "unprecedented" storm.
Fuel your success with Forbes. Gain unlimited access to premium journalism, including breaking news, groundbreaking in-depth reported stories, daily digests and more. Plus, members get a front-row seat at members-only events with leading thinkers and doers, access to premium video that can help you get ahead, an ad-light experience, early access to select products including NFT drops and more:
https://account.forbes.com/membership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=growth_non-sub_paid_subscribe_ytdescript
Stay Connected
Forbes on Facebook: http://fb.com/forbes
Forbes Video on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/forbes
Forbes Video on Instagram: http://instagram.com/forbes
More From Forbes: http://forbes.com
Fuel your success with Forbes. Gain unlimited access to premium journalism, including breaking news, groundbreaking in-depth reported stories, daily digests and more. Plus, members get a front-row seat at members-only events with leading thinkers and doers, access to premium video that can help you get ahead, an ad-light experience, early access to select products including NFT drops and more:
https://account.forbes.com/membership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=growth_non-sub_paid_subscribe_ytdescript
Stay Connected
Forbes on Facebook: http://fb.com/forbes
Forbes Video on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/forbes
Forbes Video on Instagram: http://instagram.com/forbes
More From Forbes: http://forbes.com
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes Breaking News. Joining me now is Forbes senior
00:08contributor and meteorologist, Dr. Marshall Shepard. Dr. Shepard, thank you so much for
00:11joining me.
00:12Thank you, Brittany, for having me as usual. It's always great to talk to you.
00:16It's great to talk to you. You are the perfect person to break down what we're seeing today.
00:20The first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season is expected to make landfall. So what do we
00:26need to know?
00:28Well, you know, it's still pretty far out from making landfall right now, but I'm more
00:33concerned at this moment about what we're seeing in the Caribbean because we have, at
00:38the time of this recording, a Category 4 hurricane, and it's July 1st. That's just unprecedented.
00:48It actually was a Category 4 as early as June 30th. Brittany, we just don't see hurricanes
00:53of that period this early. We typically expect our first hurricane Atlantic season around
00:58August 11th, and to have one that's a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, it's just
01:05unbelievable. What's also unbelievable is that this storm formed where it did. Typically
01:11in late June and early July, these storms are forming more in the Gulf of Mexico or
01:17down near the Bay of Campeche. They aren't forming in what we call the main development
01:21region, that region in the Atlantic where we typically see storms later in the year
01:26as they're coming off of Africa and become storms. And to top that off, to give you the
01:31sort of trifecta, if you will, it's so far south or equatorward. This thing is close
01:39to Grenada and Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago and the northern shores of South America.
01:46Just unbelievable to have a storm that far south. But you're right. As we look to the
01:50future, we do have to keep an eye on a potential landfall in Mexico and perhaps ultimately
01:55in the U.S. as well. So let's talk about these unprecedented factors first. Why are we seeing
02:02it so far south? You know, I think that's a question that many of us in the field are
02:07asking as well, because we don't see these storms that far south, and we don't typically
02:12see these storms forming in the main development region at this time of year either. So here's
02:17what's going on, Brittany. One, we transitioned from an El Niño to a La Niña. So La Niña
02:23means they're colder than normal waters in the eastern central Pacific, and that affects
02:28the wind shear patterns, believe it or not, in the atmosphere. Hurricanes like low or
02:33less shear. They form better when there's not a lot of change in wind speed or direction
02:37as you go up in the atmosphere because it tends to rip them apart. They like to stay
02:40vertical in terms of their development. So unusually favorable shear conditions are present
02:47right now in that part of the Atlantic. Typically a storm that would form at that time of year
02:51there would be ripped apart. So probably the El Niño is having something to do with it.
02:55But here's the big factor as well, and this is going to be a problem all summer long.
03:00The water temperatures are extremely hot. They're warm. Hurricanes night need warm waters.
03:08And in the part of the Caribbean and Atlantic that I looked at this morning, water temperatures
03:13are about four degrees warmer than normal. And so these storms have quite a bit of fuel
03:18to feed themselves on. So those are the two things that are concerning for me about this
03:23particular storm and the rest of the season, frankly.
03:27We've seen this hurricane flip-flop between a Category 3, Category 4. Is that concerning
03:33to you? Because I know before in a past conversation you said sometimes in certain circumstances
03:38a category of a storm is somewhat irrelevant. So what about here?
03:44Well what's really important to note about Beryl in this particular cycle is it was a
03:48Category 4 storm on Sunday, and then overnight it went through something called an eyewall
03:53replacement cycle. Now that's a geeky meteorology term, which means that the original eyewall
03:59of the storm is replaced by a larger eyewall. Now what typically happens in those eyewall
04:05replacement cycles is the storm might weaken just a little bit, but the downside is it
04:10gets larger. The dangerous part of the storm broadens in size. And so that's why right
04:16now as the storm's moving through the Eastern Caribbean, I'm really concerned about some
04:20of those islands. I'm concerned about Jamaica, which may be in the direct path or just in
04:25the dirty side of the eye as we call it. And as we speak here on July 1st morning, the
04:32storm has intensified back to Category 4, and we typically see that after these eyewall
04:37replacement cycles. Now as it gets further into the Western Caribbean, I do expect possible
04:43weakening and also as it moves across the Cancun parts of Mexico because it'll be overland
04:49for a while. But then when it gets back out of the water in the Gulf of Mexico, we might
04:52see it strengthen again. And that's where we have to keep an eye out because the models
04:56are not, it's still far out for U.S. impact right now. It's probably later this weekend.
05:02But if there is an impact in the U.S., but right now there's model variants. Some models
05:06have it going into Mexico. Some have it coming in near the Mexico-U.S. border near say Corpus
05:12Christi or so. And then others, you know, are still uncertain. So it's too early here
05:17on July 1st to have an exact call on where it ultimately makes landfall, whether in Mexico
05:22or in U.S. But it's certainly the U.S. Gulf Coast, particularly Texas, is in play and
05:27people need to be paying attention.
05:29Aside from people paying attention, both in Mexico and the U.S., particularly Texas, where
05:34else should people be paying attention now? Those who live on these, in these islands.
05:39And as we know, as you mentioned, it is July 1st. It is vacation season. So who needs to
05:44keep their eye out?
05:45Yeah, it's vacation season. It's cruise season. I had a friend of mine in one of the islands
05:51reach out to me because he heard about the hurricane. Now, luckily, they were on an island
05:54a bit further north, but I bet they're still getting some stormy conditions even today.
05:58I think they were there over the weekend. So if you're anywhere in sort of an island
06:02nation in the Windward Island, you're probably dealing with the storm right now as the storm
06:08moves further into the Western Caribbean.
06:11Jamaica, I'm particularly concerned about because the storm looks to be heading right to
06:15Jamaica or just to its south. And so either way, they're going to experience impacts, even
06:20parts of the southern parts of perhaps even the Dominican Republic or Haiti and parts
06:25of Cuba. Those those places will feel the impacts.
06:28But, you know, I'm really concerned about Jamaica, Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.
06:32Those places will perhaps feel the impacts as well.
06:35And then people that may be vacationing in Cozumel or Cancun, they'll likely have some
06:42impacts from the storm as well.
06:43And then again, once it gets back in the Gulf of Mexico, we'll have to know.
06:48I think within the next couple of days, Brittany, we'll have a better idea of what's at
06:53stake for the U.S. or northern Mexico.
06:56Typically beyond about five days, the model, there's a little bit more uncertainty in the
07:00track forecast. But within five days into four, three, two and one, we're pretty certain
07:04about where it's going.
07:06As you mentioned earlier, it is July 1st, so it is we're still in the beginning of the
07:10twenty twenty four Atlantic hurricane season and it is unprecedented to see a storm of
07:15this caliber.
07:16So does this indicate anything for what you're expecting the rest of the season?
07:20You know, I can't say that one particular storm tells me anything about storms of the
07:25future. But again, we have projected this to be a very active hurricane season.
07:30My colleagues at Colorado State University, NOAA and others that do hurricane
07:34projections for the season have all been consistent that this is going to be an active
07:39hurricane season. And it's for the reasons I mentioned, extremely warm sea surface
07:44temperatures, favorable upper atmospheric wind shear patterns likely due to La Nina.
07:50And there's something else which is a little bit geeky as well, but I'll share it
07:53because I'm a weather geek. And by the way, I host that podcast with the Weather Channel.
07:57But one of the things that we also look for is the activity of the African monsoon in
08:03the monsoons, very active.
08:05We expect it to be active and that will start to spit out these sort of systems that
08:09ultimately are born into tropical systems.
08:12And so we keep an eye on that as well.
08:13So, you know, and I have to bring this to bear.
08:17The extreme water temperatures are consistent with what we have seen as our climate
08:24continues to warm.
08:25I mean, that's just one of the places where we always see the signature of warming.
08:29I want to say one other thing, Brittany, before I lose my thought on it.
08:33Hurricane Beryl did something that we're seeing more frequently.
08:37Well, and it's alarming.
08:39When it first intensified to a major hurricane, it gained 65 knots of wind speed in 36
08:48hours. Now, our definition for rapid intensification of hurricanes is 35, 30 knots of
08:55wind speed in a 24 hour period.
08:57So in other words, it gets stronger by 30, about 35 miles per hour over a one day
09:02period. I just said Beryl did 65 knots or so on the order of 60, 70, whatever miles per
09:08hour in 36 hours.
09:10So this thing got strong really fast.
09:12That's why is that because it's got so much warm water and it's got a really favorable
09:20upper atmospheric conditions, low wind shear.
09:22So that thing can just really explode.
09:25And that's what we're saying. Brittany, we're seeing more of these rapidly intensifying
09:29hurricanes. Let me tell you why that's dangerous.
09:31It's dangerous because as a storm is approaching one of the islands or if it gets close to
09:36making landfall, people may go to sleep thinking they're dealing with a category one or
09:40two storm and they wake up, boom, you got a category four storm.
09:44So there's the rapid intensification is an increasingly concerning problem that we see.
09:50And do you think we're going to see rapidly intensifying storms more this season?
09:57You know, the trends have certainly been in that favor over the last couple of years,
10:03going back even to 2020.
10:05I mean, from 2020 onward, we've seen a lot of rapidly intensifying storms.
10:11And that's that's because, Brittany, that pool of water out there is quite warm.
10:15I mean, the water, the warm water, this what we call ocean heat content, the hurricanes
10:21drop on that.
10:22And if they have this ample warm water and they start to develop and there's a really
10:26favorable upper level environment with not a lot of wind shear tearing that vertically
10:30direct storm apart, that storm can just blow and it gets stronger.
10:35The pressure in the center of the storm goes down.
10:38So when we see decreasing pressure in a hurricane, that means it's getting stronger.
10:42The winds respond by getting faster.
10:44So it's all very much connected.
10:46So that's why we very much keep an eye on the sea surface temperatures and the upper
10:50level conditions as well.
10:51You mentioned when you were writing for Forbes about Hurricane Beryl that there is
10:55another storm that you're keeping your eye out.
10:57You're going to write about it later.
10:59But is there anything you can tell us about that now?
11:01You know, I've looked at the latest model projections.
11:04They're starting to back off of that one a little bit.
11:06And part of the reason actually may be because of Beryl.
11:10As Hurricane Beryl churns along, it churns up colder water behind it and the ocean.
11:16And and that could be part of the reasons why the models are starting to sort of back
11:21off on that storm now.
11:22It still may have briefly the latest I saw for the models this morning on July 1st is
11:27it's still resolving some type of system.
11:29But whether it actually gets to anything beyond a tropical storm or even to a tropical
11:33storm now remains to be seen because it may be feeling some of the effect.
11:37Remember, I said that warm ocean water is important, but Beryl is so strong, it's
11:42churning up deep, colder water.
11:44So that next system would have to come behind it.
11:47It may be feeling the effects of some of that what we call upwelling, that churning up
11:51of colder water.
11:52And so I think it remains to be seen.
11:54But the key message here, Brittany, and you're spot on with bringing this up, we're not
11:58going to be able to let our guard down this hurricane season.
12:01It's going to be an extremely busy hurricane season.
12:03I'll give you a little nugget for the listeners and viewers.
12:06You may be familiar with the fact that in recent years, which is astounding in itself,
12:11hurricane seasons have been so active that we've run out of names on the name list.
12:16When that happened in the past, we had to use the Greek alphabet.
12:20So once we ran out of the names, we'd start with Hurricane Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and so
12:24on. This year, there's been a change.
12:26There actually is now a supplemental name list that would be used.
12:31Only reason I'm bringing that up is I believe that we could have an active enough
12:35season that we may run out of names this year.
12:38Well, Dr. Shepherd, we certainly have a lot to look out for this hurricane season with
12:43Hurricane Beryl and beyond.
12:45And as the situation continues to develop, I hope you come back on.
12:49And inform our viewers.
12:51Dr. Shepherd, per usual, always a pleasure.
12:54Thank you so much.
12:55Thank you, Brittany.