2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: A Wide-Open Race
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00But just because Riza Shay went first does not mean that everybody believed that Riza
00:07Shay was a better prospect or would have a better NBA career than Alex Tsar.
00:13And we see that reflected ever so slightly in the odds to win Rookie of the Year.
00:17Tsar opens as the favorite on Fandulit, plus $4.50, a dollar and a half in front of Riza
00:24Shay, who has the second best number at 6-1.
00:27Yeah, here's the interesting part about it this year, which again, we didn't get last
00:30year.
00:31We thought it would be a runaway here for the Rookie of the Year, and rightfully so
00:34in Victor Webinyama.
00:35Started out a little bit slow, if that can be kind there, and was tremendous the rest
00:39of the way.
00:40But also, you had that sort of outside influence for a player in Chet Holmgren for OKC, who
00:45didn't play the year before but then stepped in, so it was quite fun to see two of those
00:48guys go toe-to-toe.
00:49This team's been so wide open at this point of who's going to win it.
00:53Now granted, in order to win a Rookie of the Year, what do you need?
00:56Opportunities.
00:57It can't be like, if you say to yourself, well, I think Kinect's going to be the steel
01:00of the draft.
01:01Well, is Kinect going to be a star in the Lakers' lineup, averaging 19 points a game?
01:04Probably not.
01:05So it's hard to win Rookie of the Year from that facet when you picture some of these
01:07guys on worse basketball teams, just looking to make their way around.
01:11So I take a look at Saar and Riza Shay, obviously those two guys are the favorite, but you don't
01:16put out guys like Castle, even Bouzelis.
01:18The problem is, I'm not too familiar with these guys, because the last couple years,
01:22you usually have that bona fide number one, the superstar coming into the league.
01:25As long as they're healthy and playing 65 games, they get it.
01:27This year?
01:28Boy oh boy.
01:29And the odds reflected here.
01:30There's a lot of players between 20-1 or less with a legitimate chance to win this.
01:35Should be a fun year.
01:36Historically, a couple of things to note.
01:38Even before the 2023 NBA draft, Victor Wembenyama was close to a $2 favorite to win NBA Rookie
01:45of the Year.
01:46Those prices shifted just a little bit throughout the NBA campaign, jostling with Chet Holmgren
01:51of the OKC Thunder, but ultimately, Wembenyama, with a great home stretch of his rookie campaign,
01:57despite the Spurs struggling and only winning 22 games, won NBA Rookie of the Year and became
02:03a very heavy odds-on favorite once again to win that hardware.
02:08Even before the NFL draft, Caleb Williams was the favorite to be the NFL Offensive Rookie
02:12of the Year before he was drafted first overall.
02:16These odds were not out until the end of last night's opening round.
02:20And DRS, you mentioned not knowing some of these names, so it's hard to project really
02:26how they are going to perform in the association in their first year.
02:31This was the second consecutive season a non-U.S. college basketball player was drafted first
02:36overall.
02:37Victor Wembenyama last year, Zachary Resache this season.
02:41First time that's ever happened in NBA draft history.
02:44Two consecutive years of a non-U.S. college basketball player from 2010 to 2022.
02:49It was a U.S. college freshman after completing his first year in collegiate hoops, making
02:54his way to the NBA.
02:56But I do still believe there is some value out there.
02:59Steph Castle, could we see back-to-back San Antonio Spurs win NBA Rookie of the Year?
03:04He went fourth last night at plus $7.50.
03:06Matas Bouzelis on a slide down to Chicago at the 11th overall pick, but the fourth best
03:11price at plus $8.50.
03:13I think Reed Shepard has value at 10-1.
03:16And listen, maybe I have a soft spot in my heart for the guys that battled down to the
03:20post.
03:21The big men, 12-1 on Zach Eaddy, ninth overall selection to the Grizzlies, and the guy that
03:26I think is the best pro prospect out of this draft class, who will have the best NBA career,
03:31Donovan Klingin, 20-1, Portland, seventh overall pick.
03:34I think there's a lot of value on the big man from Yukon.
03:36I mean, shout out to the handicappers on this one, that if you're doing deep dives on these
03:40players and know exactly what you're talking about, because for me, I'm just looking at
03:43names here and what I've seen out of college basketball and saying, oh, I guess Saar and
03:46Reece Ashae are going to be very good.
03:48But if you know, you might look at, we're only taking a look at some of those guys at
03:5120-1.
03:52There might be other guys in this class that really step up that you can get a great number
03:55on.
03:56Because as I said, typically, it's paint by numbers in rookie of the year.
03:59It's going to be a guy that's drafted number one, number two overall, because they were
04:02superstars in the international game, like Victor Reminiama, or just a great player in
04:06the NCAA game at this point.
04:07So if you are a true handicapper, you probably absolutely love this rookie of the year setting.
04:12Thanks for watching.
04:13We'll see you next time.
04:14Bye.
04:15Bye.