#Nifty, #Sensex trade with little gains as #ICICIBank leads but #RIL weighs.#NDTVProfitMarkets
Niraj Shah and Hersh Sayta dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
Niraj Shah and Hersh Sayta dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
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00:01:05Well, thanks for tuning in to India Market Close.
00:01:07And you could call it a flat day or you could call it a day of a bit of a recovery as well.
00:01:11Either way, we are trading fairly flat for the index.
00:01:14But if the intraday of the Nifty were to come about, you will see a bit of, not just immediately right now,
00:01:22but from the lows of the day, certainly a pullback that happened.
00:01:25And we may not be at the highs of the day, but still doing okay.
00:01:28Even the Nifty Bank has a similar chart, by the way, wherein it started off and was trading at the low point of the day
00:01:35and then has inched up.
00:01:36So in some sense, both the indices mirroring each other.
00:01:38The mid caps and the small caps had a slightly more tougher opening,
00:01:43but the recovery has been equally swift as well.
00:01:45So in some sense, any fears around any kind of selling that might have been somebody's imagination
00:01:51about what will happen because of a particular AMC, etc., have all gotten in some sense absorbed.
00:01:58Bring up the heat map up on the screen and show you what's happening at the large cap end of the market.
00:02:02A lot of green, not as much red. Adani Port is sulking.
00:02:05Cipla is down. IndusInd Bank is down.
00:02:08There's a buy report today on IndusInd Bank.
00:02:10But despite that, Reliance Industries, by the way, two days on a trot now is down.
00:02:14It was one of the key losers on Friday.
00:02:16In today's session as well, I would reckon that Reliance Industries is the top point contributor as well.
00:02:21We'll get to that in just a moment.
00:02:22But first, let me just mark the stocks.
00:02:24What's doing well?
00:02:25Power grid up.
00:02:26Sriram Finance up.
00:02:27There's strength in Mahindra and Mahindra after two or three days of a pullback of a downtick.
00:02:31There's a bit of a pullback in M&M in the session today.
00:02:33Sun Pharma has specific news to itself.
00:02:35Access to or rather a possibility of a very large market opening up for it.
00:02:40And therefore, that stock is active.
00:02:42But a lot of stocks peppered with that one, one and a half percent, two percent kind of gains.
00:02:46Nothing dramatic on the large cap end at least.
00:02:50But before I give it over to Harsh, just pull up the points contributors, as I said,
00:02:55and you will see Reliance right atop that pile, I would reckon, for a second day on a trot now.
00:03:00Nothing dramatic, but still contributing to the downside.
00:03:04So that's as far as the large caps go.
00:03:06The broader of the spectrum, Harsh.
00:03:08Fertilizers taking the chin yet again.
00:03:10Yes. So, so fertilizer stocks in focus.
00:03:13But outside of that, there are plenty of other names as well in focus.
00:03:17And let me let me try and switch to that.
00:03:21Let's let's try and pull up a few names as we speak.
00:03:25I'll start off with Century.
00:03:28Of course, news trickling in today specifically with regard to Century Textiles.
00:03:35They've got a new land parcel acquired, new project and therefore positive on that one.
00:03:42Sanghvi Movers on the back of a new Audoin coming through.
00:03:46Root Mobile for tie up with regard to ticketing services, which they're going to start initiating on WhatsApp.
00:03:53That one has flown away in trade, 14 and a half percent higher.
00:03:57Marico as well, new product launch.
00:03:59And then you have a whole host of holding companies which are massively in focus.
00:04:07Holding companies in focus largely because SEBI introduces special call auctions
00:04:12and no price plans for price discovery of investment holding companies.
00:04:17Pretty much all of these Bombay Burma, Vardhaman Holding, Kalyani Investments.
00:04:24And you have a whole host of stocks, both the Bajaj Holding Companies, Maharashtra Scooters and Bajaj Holdings,
00:04:32JSW Holdings, all of them flying away in trade.
00:04:36Pretty much all up five percent plus in trade today.
00:04:42Now, they in any case trade at a discount, anything between 40 to 70 percent.
00:04:47Most holding companies trade at that kind of a discount.
00:04:51Kama Holdings as well up eight and a half percent.
00:04:53And therefore, this new announcement, definitely a positive trigger for some of these stocks.
00:05:00Let's also pull up some other newsmakers.
00:05:04This is, of course, over the weekend.
00:05:06Prestige Estates, new product, new project launch.
00:05:10Best Agro as well up eight and a half plus percent.
00:05:13JSW Energy doing well in trade.
00:05:16You have an Ujjivan Small Finance Bank tweaking its numbers for FY25, the expectations.
00:05:23That one is down five percent.
00:05:25TBO Tech is up seven on the back of Goldman Sachs.
00:05:28Positive note, pretty much covering some bit of that 24 percent upside that Goldman Sachs has given it.
00:05:37And Somato also up another two percent.
00:05:40Positive note coming in from Morgan Stanley.
00:05:42You also have Delta Corp in focus, mind you.
00:05:45The stock has been in focus all through last week and did very well last week, in fact.
00:05:50But some of the expectations from the GST committee meet not materializing.
00:05:56And the stock is down four and a half percent on the back of that.
00:06:00So a few stocks which have looked iffy as well in the session today.
00:06:03It's even Stevens of sorts.
00:06:05Hemant Kapadia joins in on such a day from KR Choksi Stocks and Securities.
00:06:09Hemant, good afternoon. Thanks for joining in.
00:06:11How are you approaching? Is there a trade on the index or are you sticking to specific stocks, Hemant?
00:06:15Very good afternoon, Neeraj. Thank you for having me on the show. Always a pleasure.
00:06:19I would avoid taking a trade on the index, Neeraj.
00:06:24I'll just give you a couple of points why.
00:06:26OK, we've had a V-shaped recovery.
00:06:28But if you take 21 to 81, 4th June low to 23,667, Neeraj, it's 2,386 points.
00:06:37So after a 2,400 point move, almost, expecting a big move on the last day, last week of the monthly expiry,
00:06:49the VIX was oversold. That's recovered to 14.
00:06:52So everything seems to suggest that it's prudent to be specific, I believe.
00:06:57And if one were to take a trade on the index, I think the Bank Nifty clearly stands out.
00:07:04In fact, the private sector bank index, Neeraj, has given a breakout.
00:07:08So the HDFC has cooled off, but Axis, the ICICI, they all look good.
00:07:14So if I were to take a trade on the index, it would be only and only the Bank Nifty.
00:07:18Maybe one can write, we read what, around 51,600.
00:07:24I think one can write 51,000 puts also because I don't think that's coming.
00:07:29But yes, if a breakout has to come in, Neeraj, 51,955 is a level.
00:07:34We'd see at least a 700 point move from there.
00:07:37So I would do the Bank Nifty if I were to do the index, Neeraj.
00:07:41Okay, so if it's an index, it's a trade on the Bank Nifty, noted.
00:07:45Hemin, what are the stocks that you're recommending in that setting?
00:07:51Does your stock list have a banking name?
00:07:54No, the stock list doesn't have a banking name,
00:07:56but I have gone for something next to banking and insurance.
00:08:00I have a buy call on ICICI, Lombard, General Insurance, Neeraj.
00:08:05Why? Because we've spent four and a half months, almost five months consolidating.
00:08:11Now we've broken out. We are at an all-time high, Neeraj.
00:08:15And we've spent a lot of time doing this consolidating,
00:08:19dipping, recovering, and listed history.
00:08:22Last week, first time we closed above 1735 on the weekly chart.
00:08:26So I believe that's a valid breakout.
00:08:28And we've crossed on the first reading session of the week,
00:08:31we've crossed last week's high.
00:08:32Maybe there could be a minor pull-off,
00:08:34but a buy on ICICI, Lombard is 1780, stop-loss 1750, target 1840.
00:08:40It's a modest target.
00:08:42I believe if the markets remain, retain their positive view,
00:08:48we're going to 2000.
00:08:49And the second stock is, frankly speaking, not much of a,
00:08:53it's a no-brainer, Neeraj.
00:08:55UPS consolidation, rounding bottom indicator, buy deeply oversold,
00:09:00recovering from a three and a half-year decline, Neeraj.
00:09:05So not much to lose over here.
00:09:07Gradual steady performer, upside seems to be on the cards.
00:09:11Buy at 570, stop-loss 550, target 610, Neeraj.
00:09:16Very interesting, ICICI, Lombard, as well as UPL,
00:09:19both of that on Hemain's list.
00:09:22Let's switch focus, stock of the day.
00:09:25Goldman Sachs initiates coverage with a buy on TBO Tech
00:09:29and highlighted the positives as well as the risks in the business.
00:09:34Risks more important than the positives, of course.
00:09:37And Rucha joins us with the key details on that one.
00:09:40Rucha, take it away.
00:09:43Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on TBO Tech
00:09:46with a buy recommendation and a target price which implies a 24% upside.
00:09:51Now, the stock has already rallied 20% in today's trade
00:09:54and the upside from here on indicates a 14% rally to reach the target price.
00:10:00Now, let's talk about the company.
00:10:02Now, this company is an online B2B travel distribution platform
00:10:05which connects the sellers and the buyers.
00:10:08The shares got listed in just about a month back in May
00:10:11and got listed at a 55% premium to the issue price.
00:10:16Now, the company is consistently profitable
00:10:18and the brokerage house expects the free cash flow
00:10:21to be higher than the profits itself.
00:10:24The key positives that could support the stated upside
00:10:28include large addressable market, asset-light model,
00:10:31strong cash generation and negative working capital.
00:10:35Alright, thanks for that, Rucha.
00:10:37Himen, just your views with regard to the move today on TBO Tech.
00:10:42Would you wager a trade?
00:10:45Frankly speaking, there isn't too much of data to go on, honestly.
00:10:50It's a relatively new listing.
00:10:52But with the positive data, it would be a very limited short-term view.
00:10:56But whatever data we have, it's a gap up, which is a positive.
00:10:59That gap should remain uncovered. That would be good for the stock.
00:11:02Higher top, higher bottom, above moving averages.
00:11:05I'm not sure about a fresh trade, but it looks good.
00:11:08Further upside seems like a cinch.
00:11:12Sure, take your point.
00:11:13Himen, I just wanted to quickly also try and take your views
00:11:17with regard to some of the PSU banks
00:11:19and how they're looking on charts.
00:11:21You're seeing the PSU banking index decline around 0.5% or thereabouts.
00:11:25Some bit of pressure coming in there.
00:11:27What's the sense like?
00:11:29What should one do in this market with regard to PSU banks?
00:11:33Well, it's a dichotomy, frankly speaking, Harsh.
00:11:37The private sector bank index has given a breakout
00:11:40and PSUs are taking a breather.
00:11:42But they've had a humongous run, Harsh.
00:11:46From that 23rd March COVID low in 2020,
00:11:51the PSU bank index has rallied from 1078 to 8053.
00:11:57It's been a huge multibagger.
00:12:00So we've taken a breather.
00:12:02I wouldn't say malaise, but if you look at State Bank, Harsh,
00:12:07I think that exemplifies what is happening or not happening.
00:12:11We've taken a breather and it's not showing any sign of anything particular.
00:12:16Coming back to the PSU bank index,
00:12:19we need to sustain above 7700.
00:12:22Otherwise, I think we're going to remain sideways.
00:12:24I don't see too much of weakness coming in though.
00:12:27But when will it give a breakout?
00:12:29We'll have to wait and see.
00:12:31So I would say focus on private sector banks.
00:12:33And if you look at the private sector bank index, Harsh,
00:12:38that looks good.
00:12:40So frankly speaking, I would prefer a private sector bank.
00:12:46Okay. Names? Any names at all?
00:12:49The easiest one would be a toss-up between ICICI Bank and Axis Bank.
00:12:56HDFC has run up into a resistance.
00:12:59HDFC can be very interesting, Harsh,
00:13:01but I'm not sure it's going to happen in a jiffy.
00:13:04HDFC Bank has been consolidating for three years almost.
00:13:08The range is between 1270 and 1725.
00:13:12Three years, trust me, we've done nothing.
00:13:14Kotak, very similar charts.
00:13:16If and when we take out 1725, HDFC Bank is going to go to 2100.
00:13:21The Bank Nifty is going to go to 55,000+.
00:13:24Markets are going to be on a boil.
00:13:26It's not yet happened, but that could be a possibility.
00:13:29So after almost three years, I'd wait for the breakout to come in.
00:13:33While the easiest picks would be ICICI, Axis.
00:13:35They've been leading the market consistently.
00:13:37High tops, high bottoms, all-time highs.
00:13:39So it's like, you know, already the car is running in the third gear.
00:13:42Might as well sit in it and enjoy the ride.
00:13:46Also, Hemen, the other pocket which is really taking pressure today
00:13:52is the fertilizer pack.
00:13:56What should one do at this point,
00:13:58if one were holding or not holding in this particular space?
00:14:08Let's take a break now.
00:14:11Sorry, Hemen, please continue.
00:14:13Okay, yeah.
00:14:14Actually, they moved too fast.
00:14:16Fertilizer stocks traditionally,
00:14:19they normally are like the railway stocks.
00:14:22They move around the budget times.
00:14:24Different times, different era, but they moved too fast.
00:14:28The loss of gravity had to catch up soon.
00:14:30So if I were to look at a fact or whatever,
00:14:35I would say wait a bit.
00:14:36If fact goes up from 580 to 1180 Harsh,
00:14:42in three weeks, it can't sustain.
00:14:46It's not going to sustain.
00:14:47It was Harakiri.
00:14:48But yes, having said that,
00:14:49they're going to pull off, stabilize.
00:14:51Some of them have found basis.
00:14:53So I don't think the complete rise is going to get unraveled.
00:14:56But this is too quick.
00:14:58So I'd stay out.
00:14:59I would go for something else.
00:15:00But I wouldn't panic.
00:15:01If you were a Chambal or a futures position holder,
00:15:05I think a stop-loss should have got triggered already.
00:15:07Otherwise, wait.
00:15:08There could be further pain before we see stability coming.
00:15:11I wish some of this advice had gone to some retailers
00:15:15on Thursday's session.
00:15:16I mean, everybody was seeing that there is no end to this,
00:15:19thinking that there's no end to this fertilizer rally.
00:15:22But yeah, this is what happens every single time.
00:15:24In fact, on the other side of the break,
00:15:26we'll talk about holding companies,
00:15:29a special discussion with both Hemant and Devyan Choksi,
00:15:32and some very interesting data, Harsh.
00:15:34That our colleague Chinmay has pulled out,
00:15:36about rallies that have always happened in the past
00:15:39with these stocks and the subsequent corrections as well.
00:15:42So much like what's happened to fertilizers.
00:15:44We're not predicting that is what will happen,
00:15:45but important to put that into perspective.
00:15:47Stay tuned. We'll be right back.
00:16:04We'll be right back.
00:16:34We'll be right back.
00:17:04We'll be right back.
00:17:34We'll be right back.
00:18:04We'll be right back.
00:18:34We'll be right back.
00:19:05We'll be right back.
00:19:24Back with India market close right here on NET TV Profit,
00:19:26Devyan Choksi of DR Choksi Investment Managers
00:19:28joins in on the show to talk about the fundamentals
00:19:31fundamentals of the market as they are visible currently and you can see a clutch of stocks
00:19:36correcting.
00:19:37We were talking about how the fertilizer stocks have fallen off the cliff.
00:19:41Deven, good afternoon.
00:19:42Thanks for joining in.
00:19:43A word on fertilizers and what do you make of this subsequent fall down that we've seen
00:19:47for the last couple of days?
00:19:48Would these be by the dip or would these be stay away?
00:19:52Yeah, Nilanjan, good afternoon.
00:19:55I think the very reason for which the fertilizer stock goes up at the time of the budget is
00:20:00always to play with the government policy.
00:20:03And I think that is where the expectation mismatch takes place.
00:20:07I believe that I think amount of the policy expectations, the every single participants
00:20:13in the marketplace has from the government on different, different sectors, be it agriculture
00:20:17or agriculture sector like the fertilizer, I think in itself, I think it creates a volatility.
00:20:25And honestly, I think our experience says that these businesses are difficult to make
00:20:30money if you are a long term investor on a sustainable basis.
00:20:34These businesses do make money for you when I think during the volatility you played right.
00:20:38So that's where probably I think our position is.
00:20:41We normally use any sector which is I think predominantly driven by the government policy
00:20:47decision making.
00:20:48We use those sectors largely for the purpose of trading in and trading out.
00:20:53In this case too, I think we largely believe that I think in fertilizer segment per se,
00:20:58I think it's a case where you will have to experience I think what the government wants
00:21:02to build as far as policy is concerned before you take any decision.
00:21:06Till that point of time, I think it remains only a trading play as far as we are concerned.
00:21:12Understood sir.
00:21:13And sir, just with regard to how they've moved right and now how valuations look from a fundamental
00:21:19standpoint, is the margin of safety you feel completely gone?
00:21:27Do you still believe that there is some value left from a long term perspective?
00:21:33So two aspects to it again.
00:21:34I think on one side the pricing front, I think one will have to evaluate whether the companies
00:21:40would have the ability to make I think higher amount of alpha gain or the delta gain as
00:21:45you may want to call it as from the policy mechanism.
00:21:51That is not very clear apparently for any of the fertilizer companies at this point
00:21:55of time without going into specific needs.
00:21:57On the other side, I think if they must make margin, if they must make money, then possibly
00:22:02I think the input cost, I think whether do we have a control on the input cost.
00:22:06To me, I think anything which is brutal and brutal derivative, I think you can't be having
00:22:11a surety about the cost and the control on that part of it.
00:22:16As long as I think we don't have the complete clarity on the sustainability part of the
00:22:19current pricing front as far as their inputs are concerned, we don't have much clarity.
00:22:24Yes, I think one narrative which possibly came forward and that's where most of the
00:22:28fertilizer stocks started moving up was the GST input tax credit for the gas on the gas
00:22:34pricing.
00:22:35Because of this particular market expectation that the GSTs committee council meeting would
00:22:44possibly take into consideration adding all the sectors, I think well probably gas, aviation,
00:22:50turbine, fuel kind of products to come into the GST ambit from the textile ambit.
00:22:56And that's where probably I think the argument was that I think it should happen to become
00:23:01part of the GST category of products.
00:23:05Then in such case, I think they would have the advantage of input tax credit, etc.
00:23:09Since this council meeting is over and nothing on the front has come up, probably the market
00:23:14is giving it back again I think at the lower level.
00:23:17So not very sure about I think whether to play with this kind of policy decisions invariably
00:23:22which keeps affecting the business of the companies otherwise.
00:23:27Now to the conversation that we really wanted to do today and that's the holding companies.
00:23:32Now just look at what's happened to some of the stocks in the session today.
00:23:35They've all gone up in trade, almost without exception.
00:23:38You can see any holding company, you pick up, close your eyes, throw a dart at that
00:23:43list and that stock would do well.
00:23:45Let's pull up some of those names, be it Kalyani Investments, Bombay Burma up 19%,
00:23:51Vardhman up 20%.
00:23:54By the way, there's a lot of names, some of which are not even known.
00:23:57For example, Harsh, there's a stock which has SRF as one of the holdings, right?
00:24:01The name being…
00:24:02Kama Holdings.
00:24:03Kama Holdings.
00:24:04So Kama Holdings is up in trade.
00:24:05Raj Palam which is up in trade, JSW Holdings, Ramco Industries.
00:24:08The only exception in fact, Neeraj, sorry for interjecting, is EID Parry because that's
00:24:14a play on Coromandel.
00:24:15And Coromandel.
00:24:16And that's a lot of business of its own.
00:24:18In some sense, it's not strictly a holding company but it has holding company features
00:24:21yes.
00:24:22Yes.
00:24:23So the point viewers that we're trying to draw out here is that one, these companies
00:24:27are doing well because SEBI, actually let's get Deven in on this and then we'll kind
00:24:31of talk about this ourselves as well.
00:24:32But Deven, what did you make of this SEBI thought process, if you will?
00:24:40I won't call it a decision as yet.
00:24:42And what it could mean for some of these stocks?
00:24:46Neeraj, as I see it, I think there are two dimensions to this particular thought process
00:24:52of SEBI.
00:24:53On one side, I think many of these holding companies per se which are unknown in the
00:24:58market, I think they have sitting on an underlying equity which is held in their portfolio,
00:25:05which is at a significantly large amount of value.
00:25:08And should these holding companies also want to be part of the listed market?
00:25:13In some cases they are, but I think should they want to be part of the listed market?
00:25:17Then in such case, I think there is a case for giving them a proper, proper price discovery
00:25:21and its mechanism.
00:25:23That is where I think the role of the SEBI is that currently in the given situation,
00:25:29without naming any particular company or a promoter of this company, I would say that
00:25:33I think if they have to become part of the market framework, then in that case, I think
00:25:39they will not be able to get listed only or if at all they are listed, I think they will
00:25:42not be able to correct themselves on the pricing front because there would be a circuit mechanism
00:25:46which would be applied.
00:25:47So here I think the proposal is coming forward that I think through a call option route,
00:25:51I think you discover the price and establish that particular price.
00:25:54So that will probably be, I think, effective way of handling it.
00:25:58Now the second part of this particular argument is whether this particular price which is
00:26:03discovered is not discovered up till now.
00:26:06Answer is that I think it is already known to people because listed market companies
00:26:10are already traded and I think based on their percentage holding in the holding companies,
00:26:15you can easily establish this particular price so people are knowing the value.
00:26:19What is not very clear and I think that is what I think the argument should be that why
00:26:24there is a discount of such a significant amount of value between the holding company
00:26:29and the operating company's devaluation.
00:26:32To me, the understanding is very clear when you look at the global market players where
00:26:38the holding company discount stays between 15 to 20% on an average.
00:26:42In India, I think that discount stays anywhere between 35% to 75% kind of average.
00:26:48The very reason for it is that I think Indian promoters basically they don't use holding
00:26:52company for any kind of monetization purpose.
00:26:55They use holding company as the name says for the holding purpose.
00:26:59So for an investor, this particular thing doesn't mean anything because when the promoter
00:27:04is not going to take any action in the holding company, whether buy or sell the stock, maybe
00:27:09at some time or other time buy the stocks from the market but not sell it, then how
00:27:13would an investor of holding company make money out of, minority investor make money
00:27:16out of this particular game is not clear and that is the reason for which I think this
00:27:20discount prevails.
00:27:21At the same time, whatever the dividend receipt or the corporate benefits that the holding
00:27:26company receives from the operating company's distribution of dividend, etc, their allocation
00:27:30policy is not at all clear to the minority shareholders because most of the time promoters
00:27:36have not declared the allocation policy of the capital for that purpose.
00:27:40And that is the reason for which I think this discount prevails.
00:27:43So even if the safety address is one part which we talked about, whether the second
00:27:47part also gets addressed, I think is something which remains to be seen.
00:27:51To me, the sustainability is more important on this price discovery and should that happen
00:27:56then probably I think it would be a more meaningful outcome of the policy that they are talking.
00:28:03And before I come to Hemin on some of these stocks as well, just one follow up here Devin.
00:28:09There are some stocks wherein the value of the holdings is at a substantial premium to
00:28:19the listed price and the price doesn't go up because the price of a stock can only go
00:28:25up as much before which either the additional surveillance measures or some of the other
00:28:31stuff naturally would come about because it's a technical process of sorts.
00:28:35And therefore, is this price discovery mechanism that SEBI has introduced a good way of getting
00:28:40some of the really undervalued names, not the ones which traded a standard 50-60% discount,
00:28:46but the ones which are trading even lower.
00:28:49Could there be a method that some of those may come to some bit of parity and is that
00:28:56one of the reasons why these stocks are excited, part one of my question is that.
00:28:59Part two, in the past Devin, we've seen multiple instances of four, five days of a flurry of
00:29:05activity in holding companies before they die down.
00:29:08And our producer will fire those instances as well.
00:29:12Could this be more of the same based on your answer?
00:29:15Well, I guess I think anybody's guess on that front, at least on the later part of the question.
00:29:21But I think the first part of the question, say for example, we take name at this point
00:29:25of time just to explain the case, say Rajapalayam Bips, which is basically holding Ramkogul
00:29:30puff companies.
00:29:32Now, if that is a holding company and if there is a discount into that part of it, it is
00:29:37for a reason.
00:29:38A, Rajapalayam Mills itself, I think, would have a very low floating stock in the market.
00:29:44So either I think the premium or a discount, I think will depend on the floating stock
00:29:47of that particular company.
00:29:48Suppose if it's a low floating stock and if somebody has, I think, created a premium position
00:29:53for Rajapalayam Mills because of the underlying assets are likely to go up, then in such case,
00:29:58I think, where would they go and sell it to?
00:30:00The liquidity itself, I think, is a question mark.
00:30:03And the other argument is equally true, that I think if your liquidity is so poor in the
00:30:07counter, then where exactly, I think, the investor will find those stocks.
00:30:11So I think probably this price-discovering mechanism, even though it gets established,
00:30:15which I say in my first argument, even though it gets established, I think there is a good
00:30:19chance that I think the sustainability of this particular price which is discovered
00:30:23is a question because of the low liquidity of the holding company in the marketplace.
00:30:28And I think that would be an interesting proposition.
00:30:30In fact, I think there is a larger question to entire subject.
00:30:34So the listed companies are concerned in the marketplace, how do you increase the float
00:30:38in the market so that this unreasonable premium, which is right now happening because of the
00:30:43significant amount of liquidity chasing the stocks, I think, which are largely cornered
00:30:47by the promoters.
00:30:48So how would you probably create the liquidity factor into the market so that I think this
00:30:53undue premium or the valuation probably gets addressed?
00:30:57That should be the question going forward.
00:30:59I think we all are waiting for some kind of a mechanism to take place on this front
00:31:03so that I think the significantly large amount of P, 30, 40, 50, 100 kind of P's, I think
00:31:09they could possibly come to some kind of a rational level eventually, I think, due to
00:31:14this particular factor of lower liquidity.
00:31:16Well, it's a super interesting conversation.
00:31:20Thanks so much, Hemant bhai.
00:31:22And lots of factors highlighted as part of this conversation.
00:31:27From the possibility as to why some of these stocks trade at maybe 50 to even sometimes
00:31:33as high as 70 and 80% discount to the underlying stocks and companies that they hold.
00:31:42But you know, let me switch it over, Hemant, talk to us about how you're viewing the developments
00:31:51here from a technical standpoint, especially the way the stocks have moved up, some of
00:31:57these holding companies.
00:31:59And what should you do from a trader perspective?
00:32:04I think if I were the trader, Harsh, I think somewhere it's in the price, if you look at
00:32:11quite a few stocks that you were discussing, Bombay Burma, it's almost at 20%.
00:32:17I mean, I think every stock worth its salted except maybe Tata has all moved 10% and more.
00:32:24So the trading cream, I believe, is gone.
00:32:29But if you are looking at it from a slightly longer term point of view, yes, I think something
00:32:34like Bajaj Holding has been in a very linear uptrend for the last five years and counting
00:32:39four or five years.
00:32:41Something like that would make interesting, but once again, I'm not sure if it makes sense
00:32:47to recommend a trading buy.
00:32:48From a longer term point of view, as an investment buy, I wouldn't say go the whole hog, maybe
00:32:55in an installment system, look for value, I think then some of these stocks would stand
00:32:59out.
00:33:00But the way they've run up, you can't compare Fertilizer and holding companies, but if a
00:33:05stock moves 20%, how much more and when?
00:33:08So I'd say take it easy.
00:33:11You're looking for value, looking for investment, wait for a cool off, and then you can sort
00:33:15of start nibbling.
00:33:17Okay, take it easy.
00:33:19That's what Heman seems to be suggesting.
00:33:21But we are going to slip into a very short break.
00:33:25On the other side, we look into the Adani group of stocks after the AGM for Adani Enterprises.
00:33:31And of course, we'll talk about the derivative space and many other pockets where conversation
00:33:37is warranted.
00:33:38Stay tuned.
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