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00:00you
00:30Good evening and welcome, you are watching the big story on NDTV Prophet and I am Nupur
00:48Talwar Suri.
00:49Well, the meeting that has been much anticipated between the Indian Prime Minister Modi and
00:55the Premier of China Xi Jinping is taking place on the sidelines of the BRICS summit.
01:01Now this considerable thaw in ties of course is being viewed as something that could reset
01:07ties between India and China and it began right before the BRICS summit with an agreement
01:15being reached on long-standing patrolling issues that started after the Galwan clashes.
01:21But what it could mean is a change in the positions of both India and China globally
01:27as well as bring about India's position as a global leader in solving conflicts.
01:37In fact, we have heard from SJ Shankar, the External Affairs Minister about how there
01:42has been continuous work on between both the sides in order to resolve the conflicts that
01:49we saw on the ground.
01:50We will listen into that conversation that we had with him and thereafter, we will take
01:55you to the three big questions that we are asking today.
01:59At various points of time, people almost gave up.
02:06You can say, you know, this has happened.
02:09So we have always maintained that, you know, on the one hand, we had to obviously do the
02:16counter deployments.
02:17But side by side, we have been negotiating, we've been negotiating in fact since September
02:24of 2020.
02:25All right.
02:26In fact, that has brought Indian diplomacy right at the center of the world stage.
02:34And as we've heard before, Prime Minister Modi is equally welcomed in Russia as he is
02:39in Ukraine and Indian diplomacy is being lauded.
02:44The three big questions that we are asking on The Big Story this evening.
02:48Number one, of course, is what does this breakthrough mean for relations between India and China?
03:00Number two, how is this historic meeting likely to impact global alignments?
03:08And question number three, of course, is, is India now poised to take global leadership
03:15position in conflict resolution?
03:28In fact, to answer all these questions, we are now joined by Ambassador Prabhu Dayal.
03:32He's a former diplomat.
03:34Good evening, Ambassador.
03:35Thank you very much for taking out the time to be with us on The Big Story.
03:40We are, of course, in the middle of that meeting that is taking place between our Prime Minister
03:46and Xi Jinping on the sidelines, of course, of the BRICS summit.
03:50Now, do you think that this is going to bring about a reset in ties between the two countries
03:56which have been, to say the least, been frosty since 2020?
04:00Well, first of all, thanks for having me on your show.
04:07The disengagement certainly has improved the atmosphere for the talks which are taking
04:17place just now at the meeting between Prime Minister Modi and the Chinese President Xi
04:24Jinping.
04:25So, the improvement of the atmosphere and the preparation of the right sort of atmosphere
04:32were fundamentally required for having the summit meeting in the first place.
04:40Now, I've spoken to a number of defense analysts, and they are of the view that we have to wait
04:49and watch how the situation on the ground actually evolves.
04:55And perhaps that is the correct assessment because the Chinese have, in the past, gained
05:04a reputation for rubbishing agreements whenever convenient.
05:10They have ignored agreements and done as they pleased because of the fact that that is the
05:16way they are.
05:17Now, at the same time, a better relationship with India is perhaps being felt by themselves
05:28as being in their interest because the Chinese are facing certain economic issues.
05:36Their global trade has come down.
05:39They would stand to gain by having a better and a more normalized relationship with India.
05:47Now, of course, India has been an important trade partner for China, and China has been
05:57one of our top trading partners.
06:01And for instance, it has been a key supplier of a number of items which we need, such as
06:08raw materials for our pharmaceutical industry and items such as telecom hardware.
06:15So we want to have a better trade relationship, and this can only happen when the overall
06:23relationship is better.
06:27And certainly what has taken place, this announcement relating to a disengagement, is very good.
06:36Of course, we have said that this is an agreement, but I understand that in the Chinese media,
06:43it is being referred to that the two sides have resolved to disengage.
06:51So there is a small difference.
06:53But let's see what happens in the ground.
06:55The important thing is what the army gives as a feedback to government, how much of the
07:01disengagement is taking place.
07:03You know, in these issues, there are three Ds which are very important.
07:07Disengagement, de-escalation, and demilitarization.
07:12We would very much want demilitarization.
07:16But for that to happen, there has to be first de-escalation.
07:20But for that to happen, there has to be disengagement.
07:23So if the first step has actually taken place, it's a very good sign.
07:29You know, I may mention that disengagement has taken place at three critical areas, but
07:36it remains an impediment in the areas of Debsang and Demchartes.
07:43And if patrolling arrangements are worked out, and if the disengagement actually takes
07:50place, then certainly the Armed Forces of India and the Armed Forces of China would
07:55be able to live together in a better situation.
07:59And I must say that it remains to be seen how things unfold.
08:05But if this situation normalizes, then the overall relationship would be much better.
08:12Absolutely.
08:13So as you're pointing out, of course, we'll have to wait and watch for how this actually
08:16pans out on the ground and the feedback that we get from the army.
08:21Good evening, Ms. Sikri.
08:23We are also now joined by the former High Commissioner, Ms. Veena Sikri, on the show.
08:29Your first thoughts on what's happened in the past few days?
08:32We've seen this disengagement happen.
08:35Today, of course, there was an important bilateral between Prime Minister Modi and Premier Xi
08:42Jinping.
08:43What do you make of it?
08:45And what do you see as the outcome of this?
08:49Do you think that there could be a reset in ties going forward?
08:53Well, I think, first of all, we have to recognize that this very agreement which was announced
08:59over the last two days and even the response, the way it was announced in the Indian media
09:04and has received a very positive response, the way it was announced in the Chinese media
09:08by their foreign office spokesman in a much more cautious and careful way and saying that
09:14we are going to work on implementation of the resolution.
09:17So the focus seems to be that there will be problems in the implementation.
09:22Regardless of all that, I would say that the fact that we have been able to reach this
09:27agreement after 31 meetings of the working committee, working mechanism on coordination,
09:31after 21 committee meetings of the military level commanders, it is China which has blinked.
09:38I think we have to really look at the reasons why it happened like that.
09:42India has been very persistent, very consistent and has not moved away from its stance that
09:48the bilateral relationship cannot proceed until we go back to the pre-Galwan, pre-2020 situation.
09:55And India has not only maintained this position, it has not blinked on this position and it has
10:00backed it up by showing its military preparedness to remain where it is and to do the confrontation
10:08and to show that we can, as we did in Galwan, we know that so many Chinese soldiers also died in
10:13that occasion which they have not even revealed, but we have backed it up by infrastructure
10:18development, by moving our forces, by moving our equipment and showing that we have the capacity
10:24and the know-how to do it and to continue doing it.
10:26So I think that this has been a great factor that China has had to take on board,
10:32combined with the factor that their own economy is really falling off the cliff
10:36and they themselves are looking anxiously for stimulus, various stimuli that they can give
10:43to the economy and also in the defense forces itself.
10:46The demographics of China are so bad that for them to maintain this presence of young soldiers
10:53who don't even want to join the army anymore at this strong level is in doubt.
10:58So that's one aspect we have to look at.
11:00Secondly, I think we should look at the whole aspect of BRICS itself.
11:05I think China is looking for leadership in BRICS.
11:10India has made its position very clear that we see BRICS as not an anti-Western group,
11:17but a non-Western group.
11:19And I think we are prepared to develop BRICS and work with BRICS as strongly as, for example,
11:24we have been working with Quad on maritime security and other issues.
11:28This is a very important part of our multipolarity, our focus on multipolarity
11:34of focus on multi alignment, our focus on strategic autonomy.
11:39So I think that we have made it very clear, but it is clear that China is looking at it
11:45as their leadership.
11:47So there is going to be India looks at itself as a leadership of the Global South.
11:51And we've seen how the virtual summits of the Global South were held.
11:54We've seen how India's G20 chairmanship brought the African Union into the G20.
12:00So India has done itself very proud in its chairmanship and leadership of the Global
12:06South.
12:07Does China see this as something that they're worried about?
12:10Does China want to muscle in on this?
12:12We know that China's own credibility in the Global South has taken a big dip because of
12:18BRI having gone all right, you know, and the BRI, even the flagship CPEC, the Chinese
12:23Pakistan Economic Corridor is not going anywhere.
12:26And many, many countries of the world are worried about the indebtedness that participation
12:31in the BRI has led to them.
12:32We've seen in Sri Lanka itself the indebtedness and the problem that China did not lift an
12:37inch, lift a little finger like Sri Lanka.
12:40So I think in all of this, this tussle between India and China and the leadership of the
12:43Global South is an important factor.
12:45I think India is doing very well in this.
12:48India respects the global institutions.
12:50We want a rule based international order.
12:52We want the multipolarity to be reflected in all the international organizations, whether
12:57it's Bretton Woods, whether it's the Permanent Membership of the Security Council.
13:00There's a little conflict between India and China, for example, on Permanent Membership
13:04of the Security Council, definitely.
13:06But India has done very well.
13:08My point is that the very fact that China has blinked is a reflection of India having
13:13done very well in the economy.
13:16So Ms. Sekri and Ambassador Dayal, both of you seem to agree that the fact that we are
13:22looking at what's happening right now, a lot of it is due to the fact that China could
13:27be going on a downward slide as far as its economy is concerned.
13:32I'm going to come back to both of you in just a bit.
13:34We are quickly going to go across to our correspondent from NDTV who's in Kazan right now and is
13:39tracking this meeting.
13:40Kadambari Shamanma actually joins in with the details of what happened at this bilateral
13:46meeting.
13:48We have seen that at least three occasions now since last night and now twice this day
13:54as well.
13:54So those were some lighter moments which were shared by the leaders last night at the Deda
13:59Gala dinner which happened and they watched the cultural programs.
14:03You could see that the environment was quite light, not like earlier times, but it seemed
14:10to be a better environment, a better place to feel lighter.
14:16It's an interpretation, but of course it seems like once the petroleum agreement has
14:20happened, things are moving in a way in which it should.
14:26Stages were prepared last night as well.
14:29It seemed that the stage was being prepared for the bilateral which is supposed to happen
14:33in a few minutes.
14:35I think we have Kadambari over there talking to us before the bilateral actually took place.
14:43Ambassador Dayal, what I wanted to ask you was how do you see this in the context of
14:48the timing of what's happening right now?
14:51It's coming in at a time where we are seeing major upheavals in world politics.
14:57So how much of a driver do you think has this stabilizing, if I could use that word, of
15:03ties between these two Asian neighbors?
15:07Well, timing is always extremely important.
15:12And this announcement that has taken place relating to the disengagement at the line
15:21of actual control has been very useful in the context of preparing the atmosphere for
15:30the talk between our prime minister and the Chinese president.
15:34So timing is the essence of the announcement itself, because had there not been this
15:42announcement relating to the disengagement, maybe the bilateral meeting may not even have
15:49taken place.
15:51So the timing serves as a starting point.
15:53And in fact, the timing of the BRICS meeting itself is extremely important because the
16:01world is going through a crisis of various aspects.
16:07For instance, there is the Russia-Ukraine war, there is the Middle East war, there is
16:12a global economic crisis, there are things like the energy crisis, the climate-related
16:18issues.
16:19So it is important that countries like Russia, India, China, which are big global players,
16:26and also a number of countries in the Middle East which are facing problems on account
16:32of the ongoing crisis, they stick together and see how a way could be found to iron out
16:41problems and difficulties and to reach solutions.
16:45Now, for instance, Iran is participating in the summit.
16:50Now, Iran is almost directly involved in the Middle East crisis.
16:55Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis are proxies of Iran.
17:00So if Iran is there at the summit and in the bilateral engagements, we can impress on Iran
17:08to use its good offices to get its three proxies to scale down the activities which
17:17they are carrying out against Israel, then there is some hope of easing out the Middle
17:23East situation.
17:24So the bilateral interactions which would take place on the sidelines of the summit
17:29are very important.
17:30Similarly, the bilateral engagements which we would have, of course, with China and Russia
17:37would help in various respects, too.
17:40For instance, with Russia, we have been pointing out that we believe that this is not an era
17:46of war.
17:47Prime Minister has said this to Putin a few times, and the fact seems to be registering
17:54because Putin has now been on record as saying that he also wants the war to end, but he
18:00can't put a timeline on it.
18:02So he's certainly taken a step forward.
18:05So the timing of the BRIC summit itself is very important, as I said, because it comes
18:10in the context of so many major global crises.
18:14And as regards the announcement of the disengagement, as I said earlier, this is extremely important
18:21in terms of the timing because it has facilitated the bilateral summit meeting between the two
18:27leaders.
18:29All right.
18:30Now, this, of course, also brings us to the third big question that we are going to be
18:34looking at today.
18:36Is India now looking to play a larger role as far as conflict resolution is concerned?
18:42In fact, Ambassador Dayal, you did refer to it.
18:45But first, let's just quickly play out what was said by the external affairs minister
18:52S.J. Shankar at the NDTV World Summit.
18:55He spoke about India's position as a global mediator.
19:00If you just look over the last 10 years, right now there is a war going on in Ukraine.
19:08How many countries, how many prime ministers, how many leaders have the ability to go to
19:12Moscow, talk frankly, go to Kiev, talk frankly, go back to Moscow and go back to Kiev?
19:19Similarly, there's another war going on in the Middle East.
19:23Now, not many people know that even in the last year, you know, the number of times where
19:29actually we've had conversations with Iran and conversation with Israel.
19:34That's also that.
19:36We are today, we are today in the global south, seen very much, OK, you know, people trust
19:43us to stand for their interests.
19:47And it was also the Bhutanese prime minister was also there for the NDTV World Summit.
19:53You spoke about the fact that everybody in the neighborhood seems to look up to India
19:59as the leader of the global south.
20:00Listen into this one.
20:06Like I mentioned, the global south looks to India's leadership because they trust India's
20:14leadership.
20:18I mentioned about geopolitics and problems the world is facing, particularly in terms
20:23of war and the effect that has throughout the world.
20:27If any country can sort it out, it is India.
20:30If any person that can sort out the problems between Russia and Ukraine, it is Prime Minister
20:34Modi.
20:36Miss Sikri, to you now.
20:39The question that, you know, would be playing on a lot of people's minds is that are we
20:44now finally in a position to take leadership in conflict resolution?
20:49And as the external affairs minister pointed it out, we've spoken, the prime minister,
20:55the prime minister, in fact, in fact, himself has taken a lot of interest in trying to sort
21:00out the situation between Ukraine and Russia.
21:03He's one of the few leaders who actually been welcomed on both sides.
21:07And not just that, even as far as the conflict that we are seeing in Israel with Lebanon,
21:15as well as with other countries in that region, we've played quite an active role.
21:22Well, you know, I must say that as far as this issue of conflict resolution is concerned,
21:27it's not something that is that you can ask for, that India is going to mediate.
21:31Not at all.
21:32India has never shown any direct interest in mediation or in claiming these bigger roles
21:37for itself.
21:38But I would say that we are seeing today that the world is giving this role to India more
21:44and more.
21:44And they are recognizing the leadership of Prime Minister Modi and his ability to develop
21:49this excellent person to person relationship with leaders like President Putin, President
21:54Zelensky, the president of Iran.
21:57And it is these very people who are involved in these conflict situations who are recognizing
22:02the potential for India's role in conflict mediation and in bringing the conflict to
22:07an end.
22:08So, Prime Minister Putin, our prime minister, yes, he had met President Putin for the third
22:13time, you know, in this very year.
22:17But it is President Putin yesterday who said after the bilateral meeting that he would
22:22welcome the role of India in any mediation.
22:24The President Putin did not say this about China.
22:26They did not say this about anybody else.
22:28But he has readily accepted that India should have this role.
22:33Similarly, when our prime minister had the bilateral with the president of Iran yesterday,
22:38it is the president of Iran who said that, that India can have this role.
22:42India should have this role.
22:43India has the ability, the capacity, the global recognition to have this role, the global
22:49trust to have this role.
22:50This is what I see as building up more and more over the last one year when the conflict
22:55situation has got worse and worse.
22:57But India's economy, India's leadership, the outcome of India's elections are strong
23:02and stable, that the world is recognizing that here is the potential where you have
23:08strong stability, strong development, strong leadership, and the ability to develop these
23:14person-to-person relationship, which makes a big difference in conflict mediation and
23:19in conflict resolution.
23:21So I think that this BRIC summit and our prime minister's presence, the presence of so many
23:26world leaders, the outcome of the bilaterals has shown this.
23:31And this is where India has said that it's ready to shoulder this responsibility if it
23:37should arise.
23:38We do not seek it, but we will shoulder it if everybody talks about it.
23:41And let's see where it goes from here.
23:43And let's see, I think everybody is waiting with bated breath for the outcome of the American
23:48election.
23:49So, Ms. Sikri, you essentially believe that we've grown into this role and the stability
23:56that we see in India is perhaps a reason for this.
23:59We're very quickly going to play out a comment that came in from the prime minister, where
24:03he talked about the fact that essentially if India succeeds, it's better for the world
24:10and everybody has their sights on India.
24:12He was, of course, speaking at the NDTV World Conference.
24:33Right.
24:52Ambassador, we, you know, as Ms. Sikri was pointing out, obviously, we have reached this
24:59position.
25:00But what we're seeing today, is it also perhaps a symbol that we have now entered a phase
25:07where there is a multipolar world?
25:10And as that happens more and more, India's position is only going to be strengthened.
25:16Yes, certainly.
25:17And one reason for that is that we believe in multi alignments.
25:23We are not in any one particular grouping.
25:25So, this allows us to have the potential to improve relations with, on the one hand,
25:33the Western countries like the United States, and at the same time, with countries like
25:38Russia.
25:39Multi alignment is essential for the sort of foreign policy that we have in mind.
25:45Now, I will also mention that President Putin has reportedly said that he thinks India,
25:55China and Brazil are three countries which can help to negotiate peace in the Russia-Ukraine
26:03war.
26:04Now, that is a very important statement because trust is extremely essential when you are
26:11trying to bring about peace between warring factions or warring parties.
26:16And the fact that India is trusted by one of the combatants, Russia, is not insignificant.
26:25And of course, there are huge hurdles because there are fundamentally divergent positions
26:33which exist between Russia and Ukraine.
26:36And the Russian position is also antithetical to what the Western countries think.
26:43In fact, NATO countries are playing a bigger role in what is going on in this conflict
26:51than perhaps many people realize.
26:54The requirement is for dialogue and diplomacy, which, of course, entails give and take.
27:02And this is what our Prime Minister has been saying, that it's not the age of conflict,
27:07it's not the era of war, and what is needed is dialogue and diplomacy.
27:13And perhaps India's positioning as a global player and its belief in multi-alignment,
27:22multilateralism can be very significant in this context.
27:25Absolutely, Ambassador.
27:26As you're saying, it's not an age of war, but we seem to be entering more and more conflicts
27:32as time passes by.
27:34Veena Sikri, as well as Ambassador Dayal, both of you, thank you very much for joining us.
27:40And we will discuss what this means once we have the US elections around the corner.
27:45Ms. Sikri, you were referring to it, but perhaps at another time.
27:49Thank you very much, both of you, for joining us.
27:51Well, that's a wrap on The Big Story this evening.
27:54Thank you for joining us, but do stay with us on NDTV Profit for More.