#budget2024 #inflation #pakistan #specialtransmission
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NewsTranscript
00:00I would like to welcome you to this special program.
00:06Today is a very important day because after a short while,
00:09an economic survey is to be presented by the Minister of Finance of Pakistan.
00:13Whether we are talking about politics, sports or anything else,
00:17one thing that comes to mind is that brother, all the other things are in their place.
00:21The most important thing is that how much load is going to increase or decrease on my pocket.
00:27Will I be able to do more or will I lose more?
00:31So, in this respect, the topic of economy is more important than any other topic.
00:35And it is also relevant.
00:37And these days, one of today's and one of tomorrow's,
00:39are the most important days of the year in terms of economy.
00:41Because one day, an economic survey is presented
00:43when the Minister of Finance, the most related person to the government,
00:46tells what the government has done in this financial year from July to June.
00:50What has been performed?
00:51When the financial year begins, the government sets some targets.
00:54In cricket, the target is to achieve so much that if the target is missed,
00:57the team loses. If it is achieved, the team wins.
01:00Here, unfortunately, we are losing.
01:02We set targets and then most of the targets cannot be achieved.
01:05This will be told in the Minister of Finance's economic survey.
01:08Tomorrow, the budget will be presented.
01:09That is, he will tell that we need 100 rupees to run the country.
01:13But the problem is that out of 100 rupees, I will give 80 rupees.
01:17That is, we need 100 rupees to run the country.
01:19I will give 80 rupees.
01:21I will give 100 rupees for the repayment of the loan.
01:24And I have 100 rupees.
01:25Then the question will be that the expenditure that you have calculated,
01:28for example, is of 300 rupees.
01:30And you have 100 rupees.
01:31So where will you get the remaining 200 rupees?
01:33So you will take a loan.
01:34Then to whom will you go to take a loan?
01:35Sometimes you will go to the IMF.
01:36Sometimes to this, sometimes to that.
01:38Then the whole matter.
01:40All these numbers will be presented to us tomorrow.
01:42Khurram Shahzad is with us.
01:44Of course, he keeps a close eye on the economy.
01:47Khurram, brother, Assalamualaikum.
01:49Walaikum Assalam.
01:51Thank you for your time.
01:52It is obvious that whenever the budget comes,
01:55it is obvious that the government revises its tax revenue every year.
02:01Obviously, it is an upward revision.
02:03In simple words, if the government wants to run the country, it has to run the money.
02:07And where does the money come from?
02:08People have to pay taxes.
02:09And every year there is more expenditure than last year.
02:13That is why there are more tax measures every year.
02:15More things are taxed.
02:16This is a norm.
02:17Is this financial year a worse news for the common people than this?
02:21This time, the level of tax measures that are being heard,
02:26for example, an additional tax of Rs 2,000 billion.
02:30So, if the government does not do this work smartly,
02:34and if it does the same thing,
02:35that the 35% salaried person, the highest level, should be made 45%,
02:39the GST should be made this much, this much.
02:41So, this time, a common man will be hit more in the last financial year.
02:46Look at this.
02:50Our connection has been hit with Mr. Khurram Shehzad.
02:53Mr. Khakan, can you hear my question?
02:57We will repeat it a little.
02:59I joined halfway through.
03:00Okay, I will summarize it.
03:02Is it right that every year there are additional measures to increase tax revenue?
03:08But this time, it is more than usual.
03:10We are also hearing a figure of up to Rs 2,000 billion.
03:12So, this time, a common man will be hit more in this budget
03:17than in the last budget.
03:19So, Waseem, first of all, we have to understand
03:21why are we getting to this Rs 2,000 billion, right?
03:24It is not coming out of anywhere.
03:26The way Rs 2,000 billion is being constructed is the following.
03:30Assume that this year you will be able to collect Rs 9,200 billion
03:35at the target of Rs 9,400 billion.
03:37From here, you have to travel for Rs 12,900 billion.
03:41So, how is this journey of Rs 3,700 billion going to happen?
03:46There is some autonomous growth in this.
03:48This means that there is inflation, things have become expensive,
03:51and your collection has improved.
03:53If you look at this, then the 16% from Rs 9,200 billion
03:58means that you will reach up to Rs 10,700 billion yourself.
04:01Waseem will reach.
04:03Okay, let's put Rs 400 billion in this
04:05so that you have some exemplary measures, administrative enforcement.
04:09You know, there are old conversations of Rs 2,700 billion
04:13which are stuck in the courts, tribunals.
04:16You should also mention that.
04:18The Minister of Treasury was also saying that
04:20we have told the Attorney General that
04:21the courts should make a decision quickly
04:22whether to do it in our favor or against us,
04:23but at least empty the money.
04:24Well, something came out of that too.
04:25Nothing came out of it.
04:26So, Waseem, here's the trick.
04:28So, when I go to IMF, and in 13-16, when I used to negotiate with IMF,
04:32I used to tell them many such things
04:34that I will bring these Rs 400-500 billion from here.
04:36Let's say that I am able to convince them
04:38that I will bring Rs 400 billion from here, right?
04:40That gets me to about Rs 11,000 billion.
04:43So, if I reach Rs 11,000 billion,
04:46then it means that my journey becomes less.
04:50I mean, only Rs 1,900 billion is left,
04:52which was a journey of more than Rs 2,000 billion.
04:54After this, you can put some administrative measures in front.
04:57So, you are going to collect new taxes of about Rs 1,800 billion.
05:04Right.
05:05Or Rs 2,000 or Rs 2,200,
05:06depending on how much you are able to convince with your measures.
05:09Now, Waseem, there are two things in this too.
05:12Look, IMF is a matter of good negotiation for any country.
05:17Those authorities understand their own country better.
05:22Pakistan is going to the 24th fund of IMF in the program.
05:26Yes.
05:27Waseem, do you know that we have completed one fund facility in life,
05:31which was of Rs 1,300 billion.
05:32The rest are incomplete.
05:34Just try and understand the trust gap.
05:38Yes, that's right.
05:39Now, I know this because I have anchored a facility of Rs 1,300 billion for Pakistan.
05:43Now, when you negotiate,
05:45let's say that I keep the direct tax measures of Rs 2,000 billion mainly,
05:50that I give to Pakistan's retailer, agriculture,
05:54Pakistan's capital gains tax,
05:58how can I improve all these things and get so much money.
06:03Then there are some sales tax exemptions that should also go.
06:07One would agree,
06:08because these are for those groups who should not have.
06:11Okay.
06:12So, you know,
06:13but the fund says that the work you have not done in 76 years.
06:17Why should I agree that you will do it?
06:19Yes.
06:20Then it says,
06:21okay, I would agree to this much of your suggestions,
06:24but here is my suggestion
06:26that you increase the sales tax by 1% on such things,
06:30which is 5%,
06:31make it 10%.
06:32You know,
06:33there are some areas where the sales tax is low,
06:35some have 0,
06:37and some have 18.
06:38So, it will tell you to increase it.
06:40All this is now on the negotiating power of the FPRO finance team,
06:45that where will that Rs 2,000 billion go.
06:47Now, Mr. Khakhan,
06:48these are different sectors,
06:49and Mr. Khurram Shaddad,
06:50as soon as you connect,
06:51tell me.
06:52Now tell me,
06:53Mr. Khurram Shaddad will be interested to know
06:55how much is the possibility of this.
06:57In the context of all this conversation,
06:59what you said,
07:00that Biden is a very easy weapon,
07:02although when every government is in opposition,
07:04it makes its opposition a target of criticism,
07:06that see,
07:07you have a poor oppressed class in your hands,
07:09that is a paid class.
07:10If you cut Rs 800,
07:11then if Mr. Badami or Mr. Khakhan is earning Rs 100,
07:13then Rs 30 has already been deducted,
07:15only Rs 70 will remain in the hand.
07:17Now do this,
07:18cut Rs 35,
07:19only Rs 65 is in the hand.
07:20Okay, you are stuck,
07:21okay,
07:22Mr. Khurram Shaddad,
07:23that is,
07:24this will be the government's disadvantage,
07:25if the government,
07:26that is,
07:27the highest lab person,
07:28deducts 35% and takes it to 40,
07:29or take it to 45,
07:30so this would simply mean,
07:31that you could not adopt smart measures,
07:33or bold measures,
07:34of taxation,
07:35and you did the same,
07:36that rub it more.
07:37So,
07:38Waseem,
07:39in Pakistan,
07:40in February 2024,
07:41IMF did a mission,
07:42that mission report,
07:43is present with the Pakistan team.
07:44Yes.
07:45Those who have read that mission report,
07:46who have read it,
07:47will understand,
07:48that this is a very important mission,
07:49that is,
07:50those who have read that mission report,
07:51because it is not public,
07:52in that,
07:53personal income tax,
07:54has been mentioned,
07:55very clearly,
07:56and it has been said,
07:57that you should rationalize these slabs,
07:58and end the distinction,
07:59between salaried and non-salaried,
08:00and if you review this,
08:01then they are saying,
08:02that there are some preferential treatments,
08:03tax credits,
08:04you should abolish them.
08:05Now,
08:06I can't say,
08:07that can the team convince them,
08:08my convincing would have been,
08:09Waseem,
08:10that Waseem,
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15:52you have to do this,
15:53you have to do this,
15:54you have to do this,
15:55you have to do this,
15:56you have to do this,
15:57you have to do this,
15:58you have to do this,
15:59you have to do this,
16:00you have to do this,
16:01you have to do this,
16:02you have to do this,
16:03you have to do this,
16:04you have to do this,
16:05you have to do this,
16:06you have to do this,
16:07you have to do this,
16:08you have to do this,
16:09you have to do this,
16:10you have to do this,
16:11you have to do this,
16:12you have to do this,
16:13you have to do this,
16:14you have to do this,
16:15you have to do this,
16:16you have to do this,
16:17you have to do this,
16:18you have to do this,
16:19you have to do this,
16:20you have to do this,
16:21you have to do this,
16:22you have to do this,
16:23you have to do this,
16:24you have to do this,
16:25you have to do this,
16:26you have to do this,
16:27you have to do this,
16:28you have to do this,
16:29you have to do this,
16:30you have to do this,
16:31you have to do this,
16:32you have to do this,
16:33you have to do this.
17:00I will tell you one more thing,
17:01because I have been in the government for so long,
17:03I have become pragmatic.
17:05When I was an academic,
17:07we used to think of good, desirable things,
17:09and used to do it,
17:10and used to promote it.
17:11Now after spending 10 years in the government,
17:135 years in Punjab,
17:145 years in the center,
17:15now I have realized that
17:17pragmatism is very important
17:19in our current setup.
17:21There are some realities,
17:22which you cannot change suddenly,
17:24you can close your eyes,
17:26but they will not change
17:27by closing your eyes.
17:29This is the time.
17:32See, when the country is near default,
17:34when the crises are so big,
17:35they provide an opportunity
17:37to in-order your house.
17:39When there is so much trouble
17:41on the economy,
17:42and in other areas as well,
17:45so isn't this high time
17:46we all should just wake up
17:48to what the reality of Pakistan
17:50at this stage is,
17:51that you should stand up
17:53and know what you should do.
17:55And this is just one political party,
17:57two political parties,
17:59I say every stakeholder,
18:01including bureaucrats,
18:03including all kinds of establishments,
18:07including politicians,
18:10including business,
18:12including common intelligences,
18:15everyone should stand up
18:16and realize that
18:17the sovereignty of the country
18:19is not ensured by tanks and bullets
18:21in today's world.
18:24The sovereignty of the country
18:25is not ensured by tanks and bullets.
18:28This is what I am saying.
18:29So my final question,
18:30you see all of this
18:32or a bit of this happening tomorrow,
18:34or you have your doubts?
18:35See, I think that
18:37the IMF dictated budget
18:39is bound to come.
18:41And what is the reason for that?
18:42We have increased our needs so much.
18:45I will tell you the projection of the IMF.
18:47The IMF is saying that
18:48in the next 7 to 3 years,
18:50you will need 60 billion dollars.
18:52Now you tell me,
18:54where are you going to get
18:55this 60 billion dollars from?
18:57The projected external financial needs of the IMF,
19:01where will they come from in Pakistan?
19:03If you don't get the cover of the IMF,
19:06then no multilateral,
19:07i.e. World Bank,
19:08Islamic Development Bank,
19:10Asian Development Bank,
19:11even China's AIIB,
19:14no one will give you money
19:16until you come to the IMF program.
19:19Do you understand that
19:21even the government of the PDM
19:23has failed to increase the tax net
19:25or the tax base?
19:27Obviously, we always talk about
19:29increasing the tax base
19:31or increasing the tax rate.
19:33The PDM government has also failed
19:35to increase the tax net or tax base.
19:37Even though you are part of the government,
19:39but you admit that you can't increase it.
19:41Listen to me.
19:42The PDM,
19:43you can consider the 16-month-old government
19:45to be able to do any reform in Pakistan.
19:48We are becoming a little unrealistic.
19:51Look at the reality of Pakistan.
19:53Look at the 70-year-old history.
19:55What did not happen in so many years,
19:57will not happen in a few months.
19:59Secondly,
20:00we should at least go to the IMF program.
20:03What I am going to say next is more important.
20:06Looking forward,
20:07if the IMF program will give you
20:10a three-year experience,
20:12in which your finances, God willing,
20:14will be insured,
20:16so that you are a sovereign nation
20:18and you can fulfill your external obligations.
20:22You can print the dollars.
20:24You can get it from somewhere.
20:26This is the need of this country.
20:28When you do this in three years,
20:30you should increase your credibility as a government.
20:34You speak the truth to people,
20:36you speak the truth to the IMF,
20:38you speak the truth to other agencies,
20:41and speak the truth to yourself first.
20:44Now we have to do this
20:46and move forward like this.
20:48God willing,
20:49after three years,
20:50when this IMF program ends,
20:52I can strongly feel that
20:54if you take the right measures,
20:56then you will see Pakistan
20:58on the right path.
21:00God willing.
21:01God willing.
21:02I would also like to believe
21:04that this will happen.
21:06Khurram Shahzad,
21:07it was not so difficult to convince the IMF.
21:10It was difficult to contact you.
21:12Your voice is coming and going.
21:14You tell me on Twitter.
21:16What are the demands of the IMF?
21:18What are the expectations?
21:20I spoke to everyone in detail.
21:22If you were in the position of decision-making today,
21:25because it is easy to say,
21:26don't do it.
21:27Don't kill the people.
21:28Don't do this.
21:29But brother,
21:30you need money,
21:31and you have to take money from the IMF,
21:32so you have to listen to it.
21:33You have to take additional tax measures.
21:34If you are there for a moment today,
21:36then you tell me,
21:37which departments will you tax
21:39and say,
21:41here are my additional tax measures.
21:44Thank you very much.
21:45I hope you can listen to me now.
21:47Alhamdulillah, finally yes.
21:48Yes, yes.
21:49Look,
21:50my colleagues have covered the matter very well.
21:54First of all,
21:55there is a need for a will.
21:56We know where the tax has to be paid,
21:59who is paying the tax,
22:00who is not paying the tax.
22:01This is very clear.
22:03And the burden of existing tax
22:05and the non-existing tax
22:07is not being paid at all.
22:09So,
22:10there are four or five areas
22:12where implementation is the issue.
22:16For example,
22:17if there are two and a half lakh shops today,
22:19I am talking about big shops,
22:21two and a half million,
22:22sorry,
22:23and on two and a half million,
22:24you will decide today,
22:25Mr. Ismail did this at one point,
22:28that I should decide today
22:30that I will have to pay
22:321500 rupees tax
22:33on two and a half million shops.
22:36Enforcement,
22:37the one who does not pay,
22:38his connection will be cut.
22:40He cannot work.
22:41The one who does not pay,
22:42the one who does not pay,
22:43he cannot continue this thing.
22:45So, it is a simple thing
22:46that everyone…
22:47Okay,
22:48do you know what 1500 rupees means?
22:5050 rupees per day.
22:51If I talk about 1500 rupees per month,
22:54and with this,
22:55my tax will be collected
22:56for three to four thousand rupees.
22:58You think,
22:59where can it go?
23:00When we talk about implementation,
23:02this is a matter of will,
23:03number one.
23:04Secondly,
23:05you see,
23:06in the whole of Pakistan,
23:10there is a rental market
23:12of around 13 billion dollars.
23:15There is a rental market
23:16of 13 billion dollars,
23:17as per the previous number.
23:19This is the number of 22 states.
23:20So, if there is a rental market
23:22of 13 billion dollars
23:23in the real estate,
23:25then you have to pay
23:26only 5% tax.
23:31So, if you…
23:32the standard dividend tax
23:34or the 15% tax,
23:36if you bring it,
23:37then how much revenue
23:38can be collected?
23:39126 billion rupees,
23:40total,
23:41if we add up,
23:42in real estate,
23:43this can go up to
23:441.26 trillion.
23:46So, there is an issue
23:47of enforcement in this,
23:48Wasim.
23:49The problem is not that
23:50IMF is saying
23:51that 12.5 trillion tax
23:52should be collected.
23:55That will not be possible.
23:56What is the reason for this?
23:58Look,
23:59you are taking tax today,
24:0035%.
24:01If you go to 25%,
24:03you mean that
24:04the highest bracket people,
24:06I am talking about them,
24:07if they go to 35%,
24:09it means that
24:10or if they go to 50%,
24:11it means that
24:12if you are earning 100 rupees
24:13in a year,
24:14then you are investing
24:1550% of your time
24:16for the government
24:17and the government
24:18has to work.
24:19And similarly,
24:20you are working for the government.
24:21You are not working for the private sector
24:22that you have to pay
24:23all these taxes.
24:24This means that
24:25if you are working for 12 months,
24:26then at least you are working
24:27for the government
24:28for 5 months.
24:29It has been 6 months.
24:306 months.
24:31Directly.
24:33Apart from that,
24:34what do you get in return for that tax?
24:36This is very important.
24:37We can't talk about this.
24:38So, God is important.
24:40Even the common people
24:41don't understand tax.
24:42They say,
24:43I have to do security,
24:44I have to do food,
24:45I have to do health,
24:46I have to do education.
24:47If I have to look after everything,
24:48then why should I pay taxes?
24:50So, let's talk about
24:51what should be done.
24:52A real estate sector
24:53is very important.
24:54A retail sector,
24:55which is RTI,
24:56RTI,
24:57RTI is very important.
24:58I have talked about retail.
25:00Because,
25:01in total,
25:02you can get
25:032.5 to 3 trillion rupees
25:04from here
25:05in a year.
25:06If you have a will,
25:07if you have enforcement,
25:08you see,
25:09tell me one thing,
25:10when you stopped smuggling,
25:11you stopped it,
25:12when you stopped
25:13exchanging companies,
25:14when the dollar cracked down,
25:15then it happened,
25:16right?
25:17It's all about
25:18within weeks,
25:19it happened.
25:20If you think,
25:21I got 3 to 4 trillion rupees,
25:22then it will happen.
25:23Then,
25:24there was another thing,
25:25again,
25:26it's an open secret,
25:27that the government
25:28couldn't do anything.
25:29They had to take help there.
25:30Ok, brother,
25:31you go,
25:32you take help from here,
25:33take help in this too,
25:34but...
25:35No, no,
25:36I am saying,
25:37we are all one.
25:38You have all the information,
25:39we have all the resources,
25:40we have to work together,
25:41we have to work together.
25:42Thank you so much.
25:43Thank you very much,
25:44Khurram bhai,
25:45thank you so much.
25:46You are absolutely right.
25:47Mr. Mifta Ismail,
25:48the former minister of treasury,
25:49now the problem is that
25:50he knows what to do,
25:51so why isn't it happening,
25:52brother?
25:53If there are 100 shops
25:54in this country
25:55and they are giving 20 tax,
25:56then you do this,
25:57that every shop,
25:58no matter how big or small,
25:59you have to give
26:0010,000 rupees as tax,
26:01as an example.
26:02To start with.
26:03Document it,
26:04and then accordingly
26:05tax accordingly.
26:06But things aren't
26:07even starting yet.
26:08And everyone knows
26:09what to do,
26:10but it doesn't happen.
26:11We will come back
26:12after taking a break.