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00:00A prompt perspective to start off a new week live right here on this Monday on the early
00:10line.
00:11That can only mean one thing.
00:12It's the jack of all trades from FanDuel.
00:14Tom Vecchio joins us on TEL to start off this new week, but also look back on the weekend
00:21that was.
00:22Game two of the 2024 NBA Finals, game one of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, ahead of game
00:28number two tonight in Sunrise between the Panthers and the Oilers and maybe an MLB bet
00:34from the home run prop king on this Monday as well.
00:37Vecchio, as always, we appreciate the time.
00:39Hope the weekend was good.
00:40Thanks for having me.
00:42It was a solid weekend.
00:44I got to say that the Mavericks are looking to be in a bit of a tough spot.
00:48I have faith in the Oilers.
00:49A lot to get through today.
00:50Let's go.
00:51So, Vecchio, let's start with game number two, 105-98, the Celtics victorious and they
00:57take a 2-0 series advantage.
00:59Boston does cover as a closing six-and-a-half point favorite for a second consecutive game.
01:05Pre-game total at 215-plus does stay well under.
01:10What has the biggest story of the first two games of the NBA Finals been in your estimation?
01:16If Jason Tatum is going to be held to under 20 points in both games and the Celtics are
01:23still winning, the Mavs are cooked.
01:26If they are being this efficient and everyone else is chipping in, doing just a little bit.
01:30It was a big game from Porzingis in game one.
01:32It was holiday last night.
01:33Brown's doing his thing.
01:34We're getting some consistent scoring from White, rebounding from Horford.
01:37If everyone else is doing their thing and Tatum's still being largely held in check,
01:40this is going to be a 4-1 series.
01:42So it is getting late early for the Mavs, I guess you want to say.
01:46They have to get something going and someone else has to help Luka because he is doing
01:50everything he possibly can and someone else needs to step up and get some scoring going.
01:54Like I said, this is going to be a quick series.
01:56Yeah, Tom, it doesn't look good right now for the Dallas Mavericks, but they do head
02:00back to their home court here.
02:01We'll see if they can get some good home court cooking.
02:03But also let me ask you this question.
02:04You take a look at the Finals money line and series prices here where you're saying to
02:08yourself, is there a buy-in chance that you possibly could have on Dallas?
02:11Because if we take a look at that graphic, it's a plus 660 price if you buy in on Dallas.
02:16Boston is such a heavy favorite at minus 1,000.
02:18Do any of these price points tweak your interest right now?
02:22Well, I have the Mavs at plus one and a half on the series, so I would have to get into
02:27the Celtics winning, what is it, 4-1 or 4-2 to look at some potential hedge opportunities.
02:33I think that's probably the best call to go, maybe 4-1.
02:36You think the Mavs sneak out one game just because of the home momentum, but ultimately
02:40the Celtics will then write the ship in game four, they close that in five.
02:42So that's probably the best spot to go and ultimately comes down to if you have other
02:45series bets on the line.
02:47I have the Mavs plus one and a half.
02:50So I got to do some math in terms of figuring out what's the best way to hedge and ultimately
02:54there might not be a way to hedge at this point.
02:56The Celtics are just too good and going to run away with the series.
03:00So Vecchio, it's getting late early and it certainly is.
03:03The Celtics up with that 2-0 series advantage as we get ready for game number three in two
03:08nights, a Wednesday in Dallas as we change venue for the first time.
03:13The Mavs booked is actually a short one and a half point favorite on the spread.
03:18It's 1-22 on the money line.
03:20The oddsmakers, even if ever so slightly, expect Dallas to get at least one back at
03:26home in the lone star state.
03:28If that happens, what is the reason why?
03:32It's probably because someone else, maybe it's Derrick Jones, maybe it's PJ Washington,
03:36maybe it's Lively.
03:37Like someone else has to do a little bit more on offense alongside Luka and Kyrie really
03:42needs to come out and score at a more consistent rate.
03:44He scored, what was it, eight points in the first quarter last night, like got off to
03:47a good start.
03:48We thought they were going to keep the game close.
03:49They were within two points at the end of the first quarter, whatever it was, and then
03:52just fell off.
03:53So it has to be at a more consistent rate.
03:54You can say that at any time they started off game one, the first seven or so minutes
03:57pretty strong, and then they just fell apart.
03:59So like everyone needs to do just a little bit more, more rebounding, knocking down more
04:03threes would be great.
04:04Obviously, they're not super efficient either, or the Celtics in game two.
04:07So it has to just be like step by step.
04:09It can't just be an avalanche of shots all at once, it has to be doing the little things
04:12right to put together a full, you know, four quarters of a game.
04:17We take a look at game number three, and in the first two games, obviously, the Celtics
04:20have home court advantage and were favored by six and seven points respectively.
04:24But now we see a flip over and the Dallas Mavericks are favorites in game number three.
04:28Number one, Tom, do you agree with that?
04:29And also, number two, what's your approach to game number three?
04:32Now, I think that's fine.
04:34I wouldn't expect too much scoring in this game.
04:37I think the one and a half points is fine.
04:39If you want to take the Celtics, you just think they're too good and they're going to
04:41end up covering, you're getting that plus money.
04:43I think that's also fine.
04:44Ultimately, from a player perspective, I want to go to Horford over six and a half rebounds
04:49and seeing a plus 114.
04:50You know, poor Zings was at six and four rebounds in the first two games, I mean, see the under
04:54in both the games.
04:55And if he's not going to be out there primarily as a shooter, like he's not going to be crashing
04:58the boards on every single time he's out there, that means Horford is going to be that primary
05:02rebounder.
05:03So I'll just roll with what's working right now.
05:04And that's Horford rebounding and poor Zing is scoring.
05:08So Horford is the look for game number three.
05:11What is your favorite prop?
05:13Because we won't speak again, at least here on the early line until well after Wednesday
05:17night.
05:18Yeah, that'd be Horford over six and a half rebounds, a plus 114.
05:22Like I said, if we look at poor Zingas in terms of field goal attempts per minute, like
05:26he's on the court, they get him in the ball, he shoots, that is his role.
05:29He's great at blocking shots, great as a rim defender.
05:32But again, I'm worried about his knee.
05:34Like every time you're showing a slow-mo replay, I'm looking at his legs, like crashing the
05:37boards shouldn't be his priority.
05:39It should be everyone else doing that.
05:40So they can keep him out there for that 20 to 25 minutes, they can be effective when
05:43he's out there.
05:44All right, let's flip it over to the ice and we'll go down to South Florida.
05:48We have a 1-0 series lead by the Panthers here.
05:50Game number two, setting up with Edmonton and Florida at the FanBull Sports.
05:53We actually had an opening number, the minus 152 price in the favor of Florida.
05:57That's now dipped to a minus 140 price and a total of five and a half.
06:01Does this series get evened up tonight on the ice here, Tom?
06:05I think it does.
06:06And I think the Oilers played really well in game one.
06:10Total shot attempts were in favor of the Oilers, 70 to 42.
06:12High danger shot attempts were in favor of the Oilers, 18 to 6.
06:15We look at the Oilers, 3.74 expected goals and the Panthers at 1.85.
06:20So besides scoring, the Oilers did a whole lot right.
06:23And that last goal was an empty net goal.
06:24So really it was a 2-0 game.
06:26They did a lot right.
06:27They limited the chances for the Panthers, who have been unbelievable at generating chances
06:29over the past two series, as we saw.
06:31So I like the Oilers to record 10-plus shots in the first period, which we saw them do
06:35in game one.
06:36And in the first nine shots in the second, sitting at plus 112, I think they have to
06:40come out with that energy.
06:41Because if they give up that first goal, that crowd's going to get behind them.
06:43The Panthers are just going to get into the grind, do what they do on the floor check.
06:47And ultimately, it's going to be a remake of game one.
06:49So the Oilers have to come out with that energy to start the first period.
06:54It was a very clean sheet for Bob, 32 shots, face, 32 saves made by Sergei Wabrowski.
07:00You had there not only the Oilers with 10-plus shots in that opening period, but the best
07:06player in hockey, Edmonton's Connor McDavid, finding twine tonight.
07:10Vecchio, if that happens, and you can explain why you were looking at McDavid, does Edmonton
07:15even this series with a victory in game two?
07:18I think they do.
07:19You know, plus 165 for a McDavid goal is a line we essentially never get.
07:23Hit six shots on goal in game one.
07:26As this series goes on, if the scoring is still going to be limited, McDavid's minions
07:30are going to be creeping up, a hair here, a hair there, because they can't be rolling
07:34the fourth line and the third line too much.
07:36If they're literally not scoring, and that means more McDavid, more dry side, more Zach
07:40Hyman, Ryan Hoopkins.
07:41All those players have to do more.
07:42So at plus 165 for the best player in the world with six shots on goal in the first
07:46game, I will take that every single time.
07:49Conn Smythe Awards here.
07:51Let's take a look at the FanDuel Sportsbook.
07:52How about this?
07:53Bob Brovsky at a plus 210 price after a game one shutout, and now we see Conor McDavid
07:58in second place here in the odds market at a plus 310 price, and then Barkoff for the
08:01Panthers at plus 340.
08:03Sergei Bobrovsky right now looks like he could be that guy.
08:06And apparently, look, if he's going to hold them to two goals or less in each one of these
08:10games here and win a Stanley Cup, it's probably going to be him.
08:12Do you agree with Bob Brovsky being the favorite?
08:14Also, do you think he can actually win this Conn Smythe?
08:18I think he can.
08:19Last week when I was here, I spoke about Cardiff or Hagee at 24 to 1 to win the Conn Smythe,
08:24and that's still going to be my pick.
08:25He scored the first goal in the last game, which means technically the game-winning goal.
08:29So if Bob Brovsky gives up a few goals here or there, and you still see Verhagey scoring
08:34at that high rate and the important goals, that's still going to be my pick.
08:37I have that position on Verhagey.
08:38It was at 24 to 1.
08:39It's now at 19 to 1.
08:41Game-winning goals win you Cups.
08:43Yes, Bob Brovsky is amazing.
08:44He's been doing great things.
08:45And if he continues to shut them out, he'll win it, of course.
08:48But I still got to roll with Verhagey as my guy.
08:50Listen, if we get a higher scoring series overall outside of the opening game, Verhagey
08:55at 19 to 1 makes a lot of sense.
08:57Vecchio, 30 seconds left.
08:587-game MLB slate.
08:59What's the best bet?
09:00It's probably going to be Bobby Witt, 2-plus-0 base, sitting at minus 125, going up against
09:05Carlos Rodon.
09:06And I wouldn't mind Al Perez home run as well.
09:09Rodon, again, gives up 25 balls to righties.
09:11Really nice hitting weather out there in Kansas City today.
09:14See some runs on the Royals side at least tonight.
09:17What about a little lefty on lefty?
09:19Vinny Pasquantino.
09:20RBI shot.
09:21Incompetent.
09:22Maybe could happen.
09:23He's our guy.
09:24More MLB plays next.