Frank Islam speaks with Michael Kugelman, Director, South Asia Institute, Wilson Center | Washington Calling
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00:00This is Frank Islam, Chairman and CEO of FI Investment Group and your host of What's On
00:21Calling, where we interview leading voices from business and politics that impact you,
00:26the viewer.
00:27Today we are fortunate to have a distinguished guest who is a dear friend, Mike Kugelman.
00:34Mike is a South Asia Institute Director at the Woodrow Wilson Center, where he is responsible
00:39for research, for programming, and publication on the region.
00:44His main area of specialty is Pakistan, India, and Afghanistan, and U.S. relations with each
00:51of the South Asian nations.
00:55He writes monthly columns for Foreign Policy's South Asia Channel.
01:00He's also a dear friend, and thank you, Mike, for coming to our show, and welcome to our show.
01:07Thank you, Frank.
01:07It's so great to be back here with you, and I really look forward to this conversation.
01:11Wonderful.
01:12So, Mike, you are among the foremost South Asia experts, as Tarun Basu said, as a lot
01:19of people think that that's the case, that has only in recent times grown in prominence
01:23in American foreign policy.
01:26What was the reason for your interest in South Asia, and tell us a little bit about,
01:32and also I want you to know, how high do you think South Asia will figure
01:37in American foreign policy under this administration?
01:42Yeah, well, thanks, and I appreciate the kind words.
01:45They may be too kind.
01:46I feel that I'm always a student of the region, and indeed it's been quite a few years,
01:51nearly two decades that I've been studying South Asia, but I feel there's always so much
01:55to learn still.
01:56So, in terms of South Asia, right?
01:59No direct connection, indeed, but in terms of why I decided to make a career of it, I should
02:05be honest, it was not a lifelong dream.
02:07I grew up overseas because of my parents' work, but I didn't live in South Asia.
02:11I lived in Japan.
02:12I lived in East Asia, and I lived in Europe, but essentially it was when I was in graduate
02:17school.
02:17I took a course my very first semester on a whim on the history of the political history
02:23of Pakistan and Afghanistan, and I thought it was a fascinating course.
02:26I found it so interesting, and I decided at that point to essentially to study South Asia
02:33and U.S. foreign policy, and that's what I did in graduate school, and the rest was history,
02:37so to speak.
02:38Now, in terms of how significant South Asia will be for this administration, of course,
02:44this administration will have an election coming fairly soon, but I think at this point,
02:49South Asia is definitely not as high up on the radar as the Middle East, for obvious
02:54reasons, Europe, and East Asia, but I would argue that South Asia has become a more prominent
03:01issue in Washington, seen from a strategic lens, mainly because of great power rivalry.
03:05That's really the main reason.
03:06U.S.-China competition is everything in U.S. foreign policy, and as China has deepened
03:11its presence and its influence in South Asia, I think that's gotten the attention of U.S.
03:16policymakers in recent years, and that's one of the big reasons why we've seen the U.S.
03:20step up engagement with many, if not most, South Asian states over the last few years.
03:26And you said you went to school at American University, correct?
03:29Yes, as an undergraduate, indeed.
03:31And you were a graduate student where?
03:35That was at the Fletcher School at Tufts University.
03:37Oh, I know, Fletcher School of Business.
03:38Business, right?
03:40No, International Relations, or Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy is what it's called.
03:46You know, I'm on the board of American University, so that's the reason I asked.
03:50Oh, interesting.
03:51Great to know.
03:52Well, it's a great institution, and it's a very impressive institution.
03:55I'm not sure if I were to apply to get in now, I'm not sure I'd get in.
04:00Well, I don't think I can get in.
04:01So, my question to you is, South Asia has largely been our side of the radar of the
04:06American community, as you said, while East Asia got much more attention.
04:12As you understand, the Wilson Center is one of the few American think tanks
04:17with a South Asia specialization.
04:20So, my question to you is, what was the reason
04:27of the neglect of a region whose population comprises nearly a fifth of the human race?
04:33So, tell us a little bit about what your interest is in South Asia,
04:41and why it is there in the Wilson Center.
04:46Right, yeah, it's a great question.
04:47So, I mean, indeed, if you look over recent history, one could argue that during the Cold
04:52War, particularly during the latter decades of the Cold War, South Asia became very prominent
04:59in U.S. thinking because of the Cold War.
05:01Because of the Cold War, because of U.S.-Soviet state of play.
05:06And this is something that became a pretty significant thing.
05:10But obviously, that didn't last forever.
05:13The Cold War ended, and then we got into a point where we went into the early 2000s and
05:19the post-9-11 era, where the U.S. tended to look at South Asia through separate silos,
05:25right?
05:25It was fighting its war in Afghanistan, on the one hand.
05:28It was also trying to strengthen relations with India, and it was also trying to come
05:33out with some type of workable relationship with Pakistan, though that relationship was
05:37very much tied to U.S. goals in Afghanistan.
05:39But that was pretty much it.
05:41You had those three separate silos, and the U.S. wasn't really according much strategic
05:44attention to South Asia.
05:46So, in terms of what's happening now, I mentioned before, I think that intensifying great power
05:51competition is a big reason.
05:53And for me and for the Wilson Center, our view is that we can't afford to overlook this
06:01region, certainly for the reason you mentioned, just because it's such a large region with
06:05such a large share of the world's population.
06:08But there's just so much happening there.
06:13And certainly, you could look at it from a great power competition lens, that you have
06:18countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and the Maldives that have become battlegrounds
06:22for great power competition between India and China, and to an extent, the U.S. and
06:28China.
06:29You also have Russia very quietly having stepped up its influence in places like Bangladesh.
06:34It's long been a close partner of India.
06:37Russia does not have any enemies in South Asia, so that helps it deepen its own influence.
06:41And this is something that clearly is significant for the U.S. and U.S. interests.
06:46But I would argue that one of the major reasons we wanted to launch this institute is that
06:51we think that for too long, it's been the same few countries in South Asia that tend
06:56to get the most attention in Washington, for good reason.
06:59India deserves a lot of attention.
07:01Afghanistan, we were fighting a war there for many years, and then Pakistan as well,
07:06which has its own strategic significance.
07:08But our view is that it's important to provide more understanding and highlight what's
07:14happening in places like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and Nepal, Bhutan, the entire
07:18stark region for a number of reasons, one being the great competition factor.
07:24So one of the broader goals of the South Asia Institute is to essentially deepen Washington's
07:32intellectual and strategic focus in South Asia beyond India and beyond Pakistan.
07:39And we also are looking to provide platforms for voices from South Asia.
07:44We think that Washington needs to hear more from authentic, credible voices from the region,
07:50and not only U.S. voices or American voices commenting on the region.
07:54That's important too, but I think for the sake of authenticity and diversity,
07:58you want to be able to provide opportunities for scholars and researchers and policymakers
08:03and so on from the broader South Asia region to be involved in policy debates in Washington.
08:09And along those lines, we have some fellowship programs, including a Pakistan fellowship
08:15program, which allows us to bring someone.
08:17Oh, wonderful.
08:18Yeah, to bring a thought leader from Pakistan to the Wilson Center every year
08:23to work on some type of research projects.
08:25And you have one for India, one for Pakistan, both?
08:29Yeah, we don't have a separate country-specific program for India.
08:32We do have a fellowship for India, but yeah.
08:36Well, let's talk about the just concluded Indian election.
08:40You know, what does it say for Indian democracy?
08:43And what are the takeaways from this election?
08:48I know, and how long do you think the Modi coalition will last?
08:53What will happen to Modi 3.0?
08:56It didn't do it.
08:57Modi only got 240 seats, and they have a coalition with the two, with the Nitish Kumar and Bihar,
09:06and the one in Assam, is that correct?
09:09Andhra Pradesh.
09:10Yeah, Andhra Pradesh.
09:13Okay.
09:13Do you think they will last?
09:15And what will happen to the Home Ministers and the rest of the ministers?
09:19They will be all gone.
09:21Sounds like it.
09:22Give us a little bit, what's going on there?
09:25And why did Modi 3.0 didn't do very well?
09:29240 seats, while India, which is opposition with Rahul Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi came to our house,
09:35you know that, I think I invited you, and he has a 232 seats, 230 seats, right?
09:42So there's not that much difference.
09:43Well, I mean, the BJP and Modi's party still got the most seats by far, in terms of other parties.
09:51But indeed, as you say, it did much worse than expected.
09:55And the opposition alliance did much better than expected.
09:57And Modi had been saying that the BJP alliance could get 400 seats out of the 543 that there are.
10:07And no, he didn't get anywhere close to that.
10:15And in fact, the alliance, the BJP plus the electoral alliance partners
10:19didn't even get 300, which is a remarkable setback.
10:23You know, I think there's so many reasons to explain what went wrong.
10:26I think one of them is economic stress.
10:28You have this persistent problem of unemployment.
10:31Inflation has been rough in some parts of India.
10:33And I think for many Indians, they thought that, you know,
10:36he hadn't done a good enough job of dealing with those issues.
10:38I'd also argue that there was some pushback and a backlash to Modi's signature,
10:44you know, ideological bent, his Hindu nationalism.
10:48And also what I would describe, quite frankly, is repressive and indeed,
10:52perhaps even autocratic tendencies of the Modi government.
10:56And I think there is pushback against all that.
10:58And finally, you know, he's been in office for 10 years.
11:01There have been other Indian prime ministers that have been in power for 10 years.
11:04But still, that's a long time for a democratically elected leader.
11:07And I think that for many Indians, you know,
11:10the conclusion is that he had lost some of his shine
11:12and he wasn't able to connect with people as well as he had a decade ago.
11:17So I think that and also we have to give credit to the opposition.
11:20They were very savvy in terms of how they awarded.
11:23Yeah, and that doesn't get enough attention.
11:26So, you know, in terms of what to expect, you know, things change by the day.
11:30All I'll say on this is that this will indeed be the first time that Modi
11:33has to lead a government within a coalition.
11:36He's never had to do that as prime minister or as chief minister in Gujarat.
11:40And I think that his political style doesn't necessarily lend itself
11:43to the type of political skills necessary to succeed in coalition governments
11:47with compromise and consensus and all of that.
11:51And I think that when it comes to his domestic agenda,
11:53particularly his economic reform plans,
11:56and indeed his social agenda, his Hindu nationalist agenda,
12:00there could be a bit of dissension within the coalition,
12:03just because, you know, you mentioned the two main coalition partners.
12:06Ideologically, they're very different from the BJP and they have both of them
12:10count on significant numbers of Muslim, Indian Muslim constituencies.
12:15So that could be a bit of a challenge.
12:18I think, honestly, I think he'll be OK, Modi.
12:21He's still very popular and powerful as is his party.
12:24He'll be the obviously the senior.
12:26His party will be the senior member of the coalition.
12:30I think foreign policy, there's going to be a lot more agreement.
12:32So things will be fine there.
12:34But it'll be a test for him, for sure.
12:36I mean, especially as he's in his third term,
12:38we don't know how much longer he'll want to be in politics.
12:40People will be watching to see if he's able to
12:43manage this challenge of leading a coalition.
12:46So my question to you is, first of all, he's 70 to 40 years old now.
12:51I think this probably will be the end of his, what I consider,
12:55the election cycles and somebody else will take it over.
12:59Maybe, maybe the Congress party, maybe India, I do not know.
13:03Yeah, I mean, that's unclear.
13:05I mean, the BJP, as you may know, has internal rules that say that
13:09you can't stand for office if you're 75 or older.
13:12So that would rule him out for another term.
13:14OK, so they still have that.
13:16Yeah, but I've heard I've heard leaders,
13:19including, I believe, Amit Shah, you know, the very powerful former home minister.
13:22Yeah, but Amit Shah may not be there, as I understand,
13:25because the political differences between the coalitions and him and the BJP.
13:30I understand. I do not know.
13:32Right. No, exactly. That's a good point.
13:34What I was saying is I think that he has actually said that we shouldn't rule out
13:38Modi wanting to stay around beyond a third term.
13:41So it's unclear, but it's interesting.
13:44You know, so much talk about successors.
13:46You know, Yogi Adityanath, who's the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh,
13:50very, very prominent, powerful, influential BJP leader.
13:54He didn't do very well.
13:55Yeah, he's a hard. He's what's that?
13:57He didn't do very well.
13:58He didn't do very well. Exactly.
14:00His state. Yeah, his state did very poorly.
14:02And he has been seen as on the shortlist of possible Modi successors.
14:06But I wonder if his if Uttar Pradesh not doing well in this election could impact his
14:12how he's seen within the party. We'll see.
14:14Well, but I think the Samajwadi party did better than him.
14:18Exactly.
14:20The BJP finished second. It's remarkable.
14:24It is remarkable. And also the fact is the place that Ayodhya is that what they call them?
14:29The one they talked about the demolishing the barber's mask to something else to the Hindu
14:36temple. The person that who won the election is not from BJP.
14:41It's from the lower caste.
14:44And I think that that reflects how there are limits to
14:47the political appeal of Hindu nationalism, right?
14:50I mean, as I understand it, the area where the temple was constructed,
14:54you've got a lot of poor families and people in place for the temple to be built.
15:00They felt that they were being ignored and see for them.
15:02That gets back to the issues of privation that I mentioned earlier.
15:05And you build a temple that's not going to ensure you have food on the table.
15:08So he's going to just have to wait and see what happens.
15:14It doesn't look like it's not it doesn't look very promising.
15:18Sorry, what doesn't look promising?
15:20His government will last that long and his coalition partner will last that long.
15:25I do not know. I do not know.
15:27Right. Yeah, I think I think it'll be all right.
15:29But yeah, I mean, it only takes one big disagreement to collapse the government,
15:32right? And if a coalition partner backs out of something, then that could be it.
15:35But I mean, Modi is still a pretty savvy political figure.
15:39I imagine he'll keep the coalition together.
15:41But he will have an opposition with Rahul Gandhi and the rest of the Congress party,
15:45and that will be very difficult for him to challenge.
15:48And also in the parliament, as I understand,
15:51they have to get a consensus before they can pass any bill.
15:55Yes, that's exactly right.
15:57And, you know, the opposition is energized.
15:59It's emboldened.
16:00It's going to it's definitely going to try to be an obstacle, I think,
16:02to legislative priorities of the coalition government.
16:05So that's a challenge.
16:06That's another challenge.
16:07That's another problem for Modi.
16:09So the PM, as we understand, PM Nawaz Sharif recently said Pakistan
16:14betrayed India by violating an agreement he had signed with then Prime Minister
16:20Vajpayee by launching the Kargil conflict.
16:24How do you see that statement?
16:27And what effect might it have on the future of bilateral ties,
16:31which is still frozen in a way?
16:35I don't see anything about India and Pakistan.
16:38Do you think this government, the new government,
16:41will basically have a little bit ties with Pakistan?
16:45No, I don't think so.
16:46I mean, I've been described.
16:47Doesn't look very promising.
16:49No, I don't think so.
16:50I think that Modi will want to keep things the way they were.
16:53And that's basically ensuring that the relationship doesn't spiral out of control.
16:58I don't think he wants things to get worse with Pakistan
17:01because he wants to be able to focus on China,
17:03which is the biggest strategic challenge.
17:05But I think that he has no incentive in trying to make the relationship better,
17:08either for political reasons.
17:10And I think that for Modi, it's almost been a decade ago,
17:13he made a surprise visit to Pakistan to meet Nawaz Sharif when he was Prime Minister.
17:18And soon after he came back to India,
17:20there was a terrible terrorist attack that killed a number of Indian soldiers.
17:24And it was traced back to Pakistan.
17:26And I think that after that, Modi lost interest in trying to reach out.
17:30Yeah, I don't see any changes in India's policy toward Pakistan.
17:35And I think in Pakistan, so long as Modi is the leader,
17:39we'll not really have much interest in engaging as well.
17:42And you know what, Frank?
17:43They both have conditions that they've imposed for better relations
17:49that aren't going to be met, right?
17:51India has said Pakistan has to deal more with its terrorism problem.
17:54Pakistan says there is no terrorism problem.
17:56And Pakistan says that India has to change its policies in Kashmir.
18:00But India is not going to change those policies.
18:02So they're sort of stuck.
18:05Maybe the new government could do that.
18:06I do not.
18:07We do not know.
18:09No, we don't.
18:09But I think especially having a smaller mandate and less political space to operate,
18:14I don't think Modi is going to want to be experimenting in bold ways
18:18by trying to reach out to Pakistan.
18:20I just don't see that coming.
18:22Okay.
18:23And also, Pakistan is not doing very well economically, obviously.
18:27Exactly.
18:28I mean, it's really needing to get a new IMF loan.
18:32It's working on that now.
18:34It avoided a default last year,
18:35but one can't rule out another risk of a default down the road
18:39if it's not able to get more IMF assistance.
18:41I mean, inflation has come down.
18:42Some things are looking up, but it's in a fragile state.
18:45And it just has a lot of turbulence and political volatility as well.
18:50And there's this confrontation between the military and Imran Khan and his supporters.
18:55And China is very concerned about security risks in Pakistan.
18:59China is a key donor.
19:00So it's a bit of a delicate situation for Pakistan.
19:04Very well said.
19:05You have also said that Afghanistan presents a messy picture, right?
19:12After four decades of war,
19:13how much of that blame would you lay at the doors of American policy
19:17for the chaotic withdrawal from the country four years ago?
19:21What lessons have you learned?
19:23Do you think Biden, who did this thing, will pay the price in terms of polling?
19:32Yeah, that's a great question.
19:33I remember getting this question a lot in August 2021 when the US pulled out.
19:38Now, I think that at one point there was a view that the very chaotic last few weeks
19:45of the US withdrawal could be costly for Biden politically.
19:48But honestly, I think Americans in many cases have short memories.
19:52Now, the big focus is on the war in the Middle East.
19:54I think that's where there could be some political cost.
20:00I mean, I think this is a bad thing.
20:01Especially in Michigan.
20:03Yes, exactly.
20:04I think it's a bad thing that people aren't really talking about Afghanistan
20:09in the government, which is very sad because there's so many
20:11very troubling things happening there.
20:13So I don't think Afghanistan will be a big campaign issue.
20:17We'll see.
20:18But I think that to the extent that foreign policy figures in the campaigns,
20:23it'll probably be the Middle East.
20:25And certainly China is something that's going to come up.
20:27But the big issue now is the Middle East and the war in the Israel-Hamas war.
20:34Do you think there will be compromise in terms of having a ceasefire there
20:41between Israel and Gaza?
20:44Well, I mean, that's clearly what the Biden administration is really pushing for.
20:48That's what I was told.
20:50Yeah, I mean, this is not my area of expertise,
20:53but certainly anytime there's an opportunity to stop the fighting,
20:57you try to take advantage.
20:59So I hope, my goodness, I mean, it's a terrible war.
21:02I hope that it ends sooner rather than later.
21:05But Palestinian being the price.
21:08Yeah, absolutely.
21:10And also all these Israeli hostages,
21:12all these Israelis that are being kept hostage still.
21:14It's just, it's terrible.
21:16And it is a terrible situation.
21:18I agree.
21:19So how importantly will energy play in the future of U.S. policy towards South Asia
21:26and the internal dynamics of South Asia?
21:29Do you know South Asia faces a substantial challenge
21:34in its growing energy needs?
21:37And they cannot rely upon the oils imported from Middle East country.
21:42And they cannot also rely on the fossil fuels and the coal power.
21:47So do you think the solar energy and the green energy will play an important role?
21:53I certainly hope so.
21:56Oh, sorry.
21:56Yeah, I certainly hope so.
21:58I mean, that's the future.
21:59And it's interesting that we look at, yes, you're right.
22:02I mean, the energy profile in many countries of South Asia,
22:05not all of them, but many of them,
22:06is just not enough indigenous resources
22:09and having to depend on expensive imports from the Middle East.
22:12And there's some exceptions.
22:13Nepal, for example, is very rich in hydropower.
22:16Hydropower has played an important role for them, right?
22:19But it's a small country.
22:22Still, it cannot import the energy to some other countries as well.
22:28Right, exactly.
22:29So we are seeing, particularly in India, these revolutions,
22:33these green energy revolutions,
22:34where you've got these major new strategies and policies
22:38to transition to a greener economy
22:42and to transition into a broader greener energy state of affairs.
22:47India has actually done fairly well on this.
22:48It's been able to grow out a new...
22:50its green hydrogen sector is moving very quickly.
22:53EVs have become a big growth sector in India.
22:57And if you look at the donors,
22:58it's interesting that China is now investing its Belt and Road Initiative,
23:02its investments in energy.
23:04It's not doing any more coal investments abroad.
23:06It's ruled that out.
23:07It's focusing more on clean energy.
23:09And so this is something that's beneficial for Pakistan
23:12and other countries in South Asia that receive assistance from China.
23:16But on the U.S. front, it's very interesting that we have...
23:20I'm sure you know about this, Frank,
23:21the International Development Finance Corporation, the DFC,
23:25which is an investment arm of the U.S. government.
23:27And in South Asia, it is emphasizing clean energy infrastructure investments.
23:34And India, I believe, has one of the largest, if not the largest...
23:39India is the largest portfolio for the DFC in South Asia.
23:42There have been a number of clean energy investments announced there.
23:46And the big one that was in the news for a lot some weeks back
23:49was the DFC investing half a billion dollars in a port development in Sri Lanka,
23:57interestingly, in partnership with Gautam Adani of India's Adani Group.
24:01That's not an energy investment.
24:03It's just plain infrastructure.
24:04But yeah, the DFC is very focused on clean energy.
24:07And now, of course, we have an election coming.
24:09If Donald Trump were to come back,
24:12I'm not sure if there'd be that same priority for clean energy investments.
24:16It may be more focused on other forms of energy.
24:19But for now, I think that U.S. policy in South Asia,
24:23a lot of it is seen through this idea of energy assistance, clean energy assistance.
24:29And of course, there's a great power competition lens to that.
24:32The goal is to push back against what China has been doing on that front in South Asia.
24:37Well, both India and Pakistan receives a lot of,
24:41you know, what I consider the solar energy could play a very important role for them.
24:46Yeah, because the weather is perfect for that, right?
24:48The weather is perfect for them.
24:50Wind as well.
24:51But I think that the issue is, you know, they have the same issue.
24:54Well, the same challenges that have been there for a long time.
24:57One is storage capacity.
24:59This is something that India needs more storage capacity for batteries and all that.
25:03It's working on it.
25:04And then, of course, the cost issue, too.
25:06You know, you can't really bring solar power industry up to scale until the costs come down.
25:11And that continues to be a challenge.
25:13Well, thank you, Michael.
25:15Before we close our conversation, do you have anything to say?
25:19Well, I was just going to say, I'm surprised you didn't bring up the whole cricket story.
25:23The U.S. is a...
25:24Well, I did not go to the cricket team because I'm not a fan.
25:27I do not know much about cricket because I grew up in this country.
25:31But Sri Lanka just had some kind of a cricket team.
25:37And I also got the invitation from the Deputy Secretary of State, Rishi Verma, to attend it.
25:42But I cannot attend it because I have to go see Senator Cory Booker.
25:45After that, I have to see Senator President Biden.
25:48I saw President Obama two days ago.
25:53Oh, that's great.
25:54That's terrific.
25:55That man is fantastic.
25:56He is still as eloquent as it was before.
26:01That's great.
26:02Now, he definitely has some very...
26:06There's a lot that he can offer in terms of his insights, for sure.
26:09And I hope that this administration takes advantage of that.
26:12And they will.
26:16Interesting.
26:17So, let me conclude the conversation.
26:20This is Frank Islam wishing you a great week.
26:21And thank you for watching.