'The future of the Green Deal lies at the very core of this election' lead IPCC author tells FRANCE24
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00:00 Back in 2019 at the last EU parliamentary election,
00:03 environmental issues were ranked as being a top priority for voters.
00:06 But five years on, it's a slightly different story.
00:09 Analysts and opinion polls say that other issues have surpassed the climate,
00:12 notably the economy, unemployment and security.
00:16 This said, Green parties are almost certainly going to play a key role
00:19 in helping to form majorities as kingmakers after the elections.
00:22 Well, let's get some more analysis now from François Gemmene at HEC,
00:27 who's also the chairman of the FNH Scientific Council.
00:31 Professor, thank you very much indeed for joining us.
00:33 Is the environment being given adequate attention
00:36 in these European elections, in your opinion?
00:38 Well, clearly, I think that one can have the impression indeed
00:44 that this is not a top priority.
00:46 Yet, my feeling is that it has become a key polarising concern
00:51 and that the reason why the environment appears as
00:55 a little bit absent from the campaign is that I'm afraid it conveys a lot of bad news.
01:00 And clearly, the Green Deal, which appeared like a key political project for EU five years ago,
01:08 now seems to be perceived as a constraint.
01:11 And I believe this is the reason why it seems that
01:15 the ecology doesn't represent a key concern for the people,
01:19 because I think that they don't see any solution inside.
01:22 And I think it is really important that the Commission
01:26 manage to do a better job in marketing the Green Deal.
01:29 And the future of the Green Deal, make no mistake,
01:32 the future of the Green Deal lies at the recur of this election.
01:35 Yeah, and the future of the Green Deal is of great importance to the future generations.
01:40 And there's a representative of future generations there with you there on the screen.
01:44 He snuck into the interview as well.
01:47 I hope he doesn't mind being on live television.
01:49 Let me just ask you which demographic you think
01:52 considers environmental issues to be the top priority?
01:55 Are we talking here, is this as simple as being older, younger?
01:59 What would you say is the split?
02:01 As a matter of fact, when we look at the polls,
02:04 roughly 80% of the Europeans declare themselves as
02:07 very concerned or anxious about the state of the climate or the state of biodiversity.
02:12 And clearly, we do not see a so-called climate generation.
02:17 As a matter of fact, the preoccupation for the environment
02:20 is roughly equally shared amongst all age classes,
02:24 but also amongst social classes, amongst voters of the right and voters of the left.
02:29 So clearly, this is a very shared concern amongst Europeans.
02:33 But I think that the difficulty is that we believe that because we had some form of consensus
02:40 on recognizing the problem, that we would naturally agree on the solutions.
02:45 And the problem now that we're coming to the stage of solutions and of actual measures
02:49 is that we don't agree anymore on these solutions.
02:52 Quite on the contrary, this has become a very divisive issue in the campaign.
02:58 Yeah, it's divisive.
02:59 Is it simple to say that it's just a left-right issue?
03:03 That almost seems a bit too simplistic, doesn't it?
03:05 That's a bit too simplistic.
03:08 Obviously, there are differences between the left and the right.
03:11 But I think this is also a key difference between populism, nationalism and doing what is right.
03:18 And I think that we should be really aware that those who are probably the most concerned
03:23 about the future of the Green Deal will not be voting in this weekend's election.
03:28 Those who are most concerned about the future of the Green Deal
03:31 are in Bangladesh, in India, or in Mexico,
03:34 and suffering directly from the consequences of climate change.
03:38 Now, if Europe can set a good example to the rest of the world
03:42 and perhaps make environmental issues a really key issue,
03:45 there's real scope, isn't there, for action beyond Europe,
03:50 if indeed Europe can blaze that trail?
03:52 Absolutely.
03:53 And I think it's not just about setting an example for the rest of the world.
03:56 It's also about seizing an opportunity for Europe's economy and hence its political model.
04:03 Very clearly, the strength of Europe is the size of its internal market
04:08 and it is clear that Europe should use this to its advantage
04:12 and to make sure that a lot of the policies that are aimed at decarbonising the EU economy
04:19 can also be applied to the rest of the world.
04:21 This is a sense of the carbon tax that will be implemented at the borders of the EU from 2026 onwards.
04:29 Yeah, I mean, you hear people criticising Europe for overreach
04:33 and people who are Eurosceptic in a lot of countries say,
04:38 you know, Europe's ambitions don't match their own necessarily.
04:41 But were they to get the green elements of their policy absolutely right
04:48 and make Europe a green continent where, you know,
04:52 the rest of the world can look at with a degree of admiration and envy?
04:57 I mean, that would be a real coup, wouldn't it, for the bloc?
04:59 Clearly. And I think it's clearly in the interest of Europe as well
05:03 and in the interest of European industries as well.
05:07 I think what is important for this to happen is that we send
05:10 very clear signals to investors and industries.
05:13 And I think any backtracking, any flip-flopping on the Green Deal
05:17 would send a signal of uncertainty, of confusion to investors
05:21 and that signal could derail the transition,
05:24 which is the reason why it is really important to keep a steady cape
05:29 when it comes to the ecological transition for the industries, for the investors.
05:35 And do you think the Green Deal is safe in the event that,
05:38 you know, right-wing parties come out on top?
05:40 I mean, what's going to happen? What's your forecast there?
05:43 Clearly, no. There is a huge risk if there is a rise of populist and nationalist parties.
05:49 They've made it very clear that they didn't like the Green Deal,
05:52 that they would try to get rid of the Green Deal.
05:55 So it is absolutely clear that the Green Deal is a serious risk in this election.
05:59 Absolutely.
05:59 OK, well, thank you very much indeed to you.
06:02 And thank you to your special guest there,
06:05 who's had a cameo appearance in today's news bulletin.
06:09 Thank you so much.
06:10 Thank you so much indeed, Professor François Gemin.
06:12 Thank you very much indeed to you.