India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to win a record-equalling third consecutive term in office on Tuesday when the 642 million votes cast in the world's largest election are counted. Ashley J. Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, tells FRANCE 24's Mark Owen that "once re-elected, his commitment to Hindu nationalism will become even more palpable".
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00:00 A third historic election victory, or a vote marred by intimidation of rivals and the suppression
00:07 of the Muslim vote.
00:08 How you view India's election may well depend on where you stand politically.
00:12 Narendra Modi is praising the event that's predicted to return him and his BJP party
00:16 to power over a billion voters.
00:19 Seven phases of voting, the biggest in India's history.
00:22 This election was also hit by a deadly heatwave that claimed lives as temperatures soared
00:26 to nearly 50 degrees Celsius.
00:29 The opposition accused Modi of using the state apparatus to his campaign advantage.
00:33 Especially the state media and two prominent opposition leaders happened to be jailed ahead
00:39 of campaigning.
00:40 Our correspondent Pavni Mittal sent this from New Delhi.
00:43 There's been a mixed reaction to the exit poll numbers released this weekend.
00:50 You know, Prime Minister Modi was widely believed to return for a third term.
00:55 But the projected scale of this victory is what has been controversial.
00:59 The stock markets, as you mentioned, loving the exit poll numbers, rallying to record
01:03 high.
01:04 Political reactions, though, have been a little different.
01:08 Opposition parties saying they're going to wait until tomorrow, that is June 4th, when
01:12 the actual results are out.
01:15 As far as voters and political experts are concerned, you know, there are many who back
01:19 these numbers, saying that even though there are real concerns about the economy, record
01:24 unemployment and high inflation, many voters still believe that the BJP, led by Narendra
01:30 Modi, is still best poised to address these issues.
01:35 And many still don't see the opposition as a viable option.
01:38 But there are analysts who believe that, you know, the scale of the victory projected by
01:42 these exit polls are vastly overstated.
01:46 And we might see some surprises tomorrow.
01:49 But thankfully, counting will begin in about 14 hours, so we will have the results, hopefully,
01:57 in the next 24 hours.
01:59 Correspondent Pavni Mittal with a guarded assessment of what it is.
02:03 But all other assessments seem to be saying Narendra Modi is basically in for what they
02:08 call a landslide victory.
02:10 Let's bring in Ashley J. Tellis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International
02:15 Peace.
02:16 Good evening to you, sir.
02:17 And I think this election, major event of massive proportions, ought we to salute?
02:21 And I think perhaps we should salute India for making this happen.
02:26 I think so.
02:27 I think this is a remarkable exercise in popular democracy.
02:32 And I think the outcome is going to show that Prime Minister Modi is truly a historic figure.
02:38 Whether he likes politics or not, he will have gotten a third term with a remarkable
02:44 achievement that no prime minister has had before, which is he has won each successive
02:50 election with a larger majority than the one before.
02:56 Our correspondent was intimating that perhaps the majority won't be as big this time, but
03:00 of course, time will tell.
03:01 This is the great thing about it.
03:03 There are, for some people, though, causes for concern.
03:06 What would you say about that?
03:09 I think those concerns have to be taken seriously.
03:11 But given the scale of India's elections, I think this was still largely a free election
03:19 and it was probably a fair election as well.
03:24 So I think there will be irregularities, but those irregularities will really be on the
03:28 margins.
03:29 On that issue of fairness, there would be supporters of the likes of Arvind Kherjewal
03:37 and Rahul Gandhi who might have a different perspective on it.
03:41 I think they have legitimate complaints.
03:43 I think the prime minister and his party have used power in somewhat draconian ways, certainly
03:52 unprecedented in India's history.
03:55 But I think the bottom line still remains the same.
03:58 Modi stands very tall in the Indian political pantheon and I don't think anyone is going
04:04 to claim that his victory is essentially owed to illegitimate practices.
04:10 So a third historic victory, the Muslim vote, according to some, basically deleted.
04:17 Is there any truth in that?
04:20 It could be.
04:21 We will have to wait and see after the election results when we get constituency by constituency
04:27 numbers and a more detailed scrutiny can be done.
04:32 But to my mind, none of these are going to change the fundamentals, which is Modi can
04:38 claim to have won this election fairly.
04:43 And I think nothing is going to repudiate that basic conclusion.
04:48 When Modi was first elected on a 14 point programme, the first point of that was talking
04:52 about secularism and the importance of that and saying that basically one's nationality
04:57 is one's identity, not one's religion.
05:00 Now that coming from France or being in France kind of chimes with what things are supposed
05:06 to be like here in France, where religion is not part of public life.
05:09 However, the practice seems to be in India under Modi that if you're Hindu, everything
05:14 is great and if you're not, well, you've got a problem.
05:17 So is there a sense here that there's something hypocritical in his approach?
05:22 Well, I think that was certainly the position he took prior to being elected first time
05:28 around.
05:29 But in the second term, he began to wear his Hindu nationalism much more transparently
05:35 and honestly.
05:37 And my expectation is that once he gets elected and we will know the results and the magnitude
05:42 of that victory tomorrow, that commitment to a more Hindu nationalist government will
05:52 become even more palpable.
05:55 So in some sense, I think what Modi did was he said what was convenient to say prior to
06:01 his first election, but in some ways the real stripes of the tiger are now showing.
06:08 So a complete change from 2014.
06:10 And it sounds like, reading between the lines, you're saying that if you're Muslim, if you're
06:14 Christian, you could be in for an even harder time now in India.
06:18 I suspect so.
06:20 And that is certainly the way the minorities in India feel.
06:24 They feel increasingly disenfranchised by Prime Minister Modi, the BJP and the RSS in
06:31 particular, which is the social organization that drives the BJP's electoral machine.
06:38 And they are fearful.
06:39 They are fearful for what being an Indian citizen means in a third Modi government.
06:47 Is there a sense that there is almost a cult of personality at play here with Modi?
06:52 Oh, I think that has been demonstrated remarkably over the last 10 years, that Modi has a following
07:01 in India that is simply unprecedented.
07:04 I mean, neither Nehru nor Indira Gandhi in decades gone by had the kind of populist following
07:14 that Prime Minister Modi does.
07:16 And I expect that will only intensify once the third term is underway.
07:21 We've been hearing a hint of what this might mean domestically.
07:23 How about India's foreign policy under Modi?
07:26 I could say more of the same, but how will that develop, do you think?
07:31 I think there will be broad continuities between what we've seen, especially in the second
07:35 term.
07:36 And those continuities are the following.
07:38 I think his desire to make India a major world power will only receive additional impetus.
07:46 The shift that he has made quite palpably towards the West and the United States in
07:53 particular will also be sustained.
07:56 I don't see any fundamental changes there.
07:59 He has built up a very special relationship with France and with Israel.
08:04 I think that relationship will also persist.
08:07 And in Asia, there will be broad continuities between the strengthening ties that India
08:13 has with both Japan and Australia.
08:16 However, I think we might be in for a few surprises within South Asia.
08:22 I expect that he will reach out towards Pakistan in the hope that he can rebuild the relations
08:31 with Pakistan.
08:33 And very interestingly, he offered China an olive branch in the weeks leading up to the
08:39 election through an interview that he gave with Newsweek magazine.
08:44 So I'm waiting to see whether the Chinese bite on that overture and if there may be
08:50 some hope for a new beginning in Sino-Indian relations.
08:56 Indeed, that would be an extremely interesting development in that case.
08:59 Clearly, what you said about Pakistan, implications perhaps for Kashmir.
09:04 You talk about the relationship with China, extremely important thinking economically
09:08 too.
09:09 But you're talking about Russia.
09:10 And clearly, India is a customer for Russia's oil at this present moment in time, which
09:14 is something of a lifeline to Moscow.
09:17 It was raised questions all the time about India's stance over Ukraine, for instance.
09:22 Is that going to evolve?
09:24 I don't see that at all.
09:26 There may be minor corrections.
09:28 And we're already beginning to see that, for example, in the decisions India has made very
09:33 recently to permit Indian companies to sell munitions to Ukraine.
09:39 That has been an interesting adjustment in India's policy.
09:44 But the broad drift, which you alluded to, Mark, which is India's very strong relationship
09:51 with Russia, I don't see that changing any time soon.
09:54 That is driven by bigger geopolitical considerations that are now literally etched into the fiber
10:01 of India's foreign policy.
10:03 Ashly J. Tellis of the Karnatnigie Endowment for International Peace, Senior Fellow at
10:08 that AUGUST body.
10:09 Thank you, sir, for joining us and sharing your analysis of what this third historic
10:13 election win, as is predicted for Narendra Modi, could mean for India and beyond.
10:18 Ashly J. Tellis there with the analysis.
10:20 Thank you for joining us, sir.
10:22 That's it for Apropos.
10:23 We have more news to come, of course, here on France 24.
10:26 Do stay with us.
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