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00:00Let's get more analysis and bring in Ariane Beauguin, lecturer in French at the University
00:04of Northumbria.
00:05Ariane, thanks for being with us.
00:06This is truly, I believe, and you will correct me if I'm wrong, an unprecedented situation.
00:11Yeah, I mean, it's not the first time that French politicians have been condemned for
00:17corruption or embezzlement, but this is certainly the first time that the leader of a major
00:22party who is leading the polls way ahead for the 2027 presidential election might not be
00:28able to stand for it.
00:30So that's why there is such a shock that we are talking about someone who is leading the
00:36polls and who might not be able to stand as a candidate.
00:40And the reaction politically, I think, is predictable.
00:43Voices on the far right condemning it out of hand, voices abroad from the far right
00:48end of the political spectrum also making those same noises.
00:51All except for François Bayrou, who, of course, is a well-known centrist and is actual Prime
00:56Minister of France.
00:57He is disturbed by the verdict.
00:59Do you understand where he's coming from?
01:01Well, it's not a surprise because when the prosecution made its case in November, he
01:08already said that she should not be condemned.
01:12So him saying that he's disturbed or whatever the word he used is not a surprise.
01:18But really, you know, everyone is entitled to criticize a court decision.
01:23You might think it's too harsh.
01:24You might think in this particular case that the sentencing is disproportionate to the
01:29crime committed.
01:30But there is a procedure for that, and the procedure is the appeal process.
01:35So all this noise that we've heard today, all these really harsh words against the dictatorship
01:42of judges, against judges being against the people, all of this really harsh rhetoric
01:49is a political strategy to weaponize a judicial decision and galvanize her base and trying
01:58to make political gains out of a detrimental judgment.
02:02But really, there is a procedure and she's going to do it, which is to appeal and see
02:06what the appeal court will say.
02:09Indeed, there's all this, woe is me, I'm a victim, all those kind of things being said.
02:12Of course, she's trying to say it's a political decision that has been handed down by the
02:16French court.
02:18But at the end of the day, she's committed a crime.
02:21So as you and I talk now, she is basically a crook.
02:25She's been convicted.
02:26And so therefore, what she's going through is perfectly justified.
02:29Well, you know, this is a court decision who found her guilty and now she's going to appeal.
02:37Right.
02:38So this should be really, in an ideal world, this should be the end of the discussion.
02:42She was found guilty and now she's going to appeal.
02:45But clearly, she wants to present herself as a victim.
02:49She wants to present herself as a martyr.
02:52And we've seen that before when Sarkozy, for example, was condemned in 2021, that's exactly
02:58what he said.
02:59When Trump was condemned, that's exactly what he did as well.
03:03So it's, you know, she is condemned.
03:05She's going to appeal.
03:07And all of this noise is not, in my mind, is dangerous for the rule of law, because
03:13what she's doing is undermining the independence of the judiciary.
03:21But it's a well-known strategy.
03:22You know, the playbook has been played, not just in France, but around the world.
03:28And in terms of what happens next, then, clearly, as you say, Marine Le Pen is going to want
03:31to cash in on this.
03:33The National Rally will do all it can to cash in on this.
03:36Jordan Bardello, of course, who stands to take her place as the candidate in 2027, will
03:41also be trying to get the maximum out of this, too.
03:44Well, the thing is, what really happens today is that it has totally reshuffled the cards
03:50for the 2027 presidential election.
03:54If she still wants to be a candidate and saying that the appeal court might overturn the verdict,
04:01a campaign will still be derailed because she'll have another trial.
04:04And obviously, all the other parties are going to hammer her with accusation of being dishonest,
04:11etc., etc.
04:12If she takes a step back, then there are two questions.
04:15Who is going to be the candidate?
04:17It could be Bardello.
04:18But, you know, when someone with such a stature as Marine Le Pen leaves space, it whets the
04:26appetites of other people.
04:28So it might not be Bardello.
04:30And then which political line are they going to choose?
04:34And finally, all the other parties, all the strategies are going to change because they
04:39all thought that they were going to fight against Marine Le Pen.
04:43And it's very different competing against her as it is competing against a less well-known
04:50person.
04:51So everything today has been upended when it comes to the presidential election.
04:57Marianne Bourguin, it's always a pleasure to have you on the programme.
05:00Thank you very much for giving us that analysis of the situation, which, as you say, is ongoing.
05:05Although Marine Le Pen, this evening, convicted of embezzlement and barred from running for
05:10the 2027 election here in France.
05:13Marianne, thanks for joining us.