Recapping Stanley Cup Postseason & Finals Forecast
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00:00 the season. The prop
00:08 perspective on this Monday to
00:10 start off a new week with fan
00:11 duels. Tom Vecchio live right
00:13 here on the early line on
00:14 sports grid. He is the man in
00:16 the middle. We recap what we
00:18 saw over the weekend in the
00:20 Stanley Cup postseason will
00:21 keep it at that time, and then
00:23 we will also forecast what we
00:24 are going to see for the
00:25 Stanley Cup final that starts
00:29 on Monday. Tom Vecchio. Thank
00:30 you for being here on this
00:32 Monday on the early line. I
00:33 know it could not have been the
00:35 easiest of weekends for you and
00:37 your hockey fandom and your
00:38 tickets. Yeah, thanks for having
00:40 me. The Rangers lost my star
00:42 Stanley Cup future loss, but
00:44 play a little bit of golf. Got
00:45 a little bit too much sun.
00:46 Yanks are still in first place.
00:48 I got to be ready to go on a
00:49 Monday. Listen, new week, new
00:51 money. It's what Donnie says all
00:52 the time. That's a beautiful
00:53 positive perspective to have
00:55 here for the prop perspective on
00:58 the game. But let's look back on
00:59 the end of the Western
01:00 Conference finals between the
01:02 stores and the Oilers. Despite
01:04 being outshot by Dallas 35 to 10
01:08 Edmonton takes game number six
01:10 and wins the WCF four games to
01:13 two. It was started by a
01:14 spectacular goal from the best
01:16 player in the National Hockey
01:17 League. Connor McDavid. How did
01:20 Edmonton win the final three
01:21 games of this series to advance
01:23 back to the Cup final for the
01:24 first time in 18 years? A lot of
01:27 the players in the past go to
01:29 coaching all block their head
01:30 coach, you know, making a lot
01:31 of adjustments players in and
01:32 out of the lineup that we saw as
01:34 the series went on. And, you
01:35 know, they kind of kept the
01:36 stars in check each and every
01:38 way they possibly could, you
01:39 know, I've talked about the
01:40 stars, how deep they were. They
01:41 limit them at every chance, not
01:42 in the shots of the most recent
01:43 game as we saw, but the stars
01:44 are also playing with
01:45 desperation, but they made the
01:46 proper adjustments. And, you
01:47 know, I've talked about Stuart
01:48 Skinner before the goalie for
01:49 the Oilers. As long as they the
01:51 defense in front of him limits
01:53 their mistakes, he will be in a
01:55 good spot. So when the defense
01:57 in front of him, the position
01:58 isn't overextending all these
01:59 sorts of things Skinner can be a
02:01 solid goalie, whether or not
02:02 that continues versus a very
02:04 strong offense in Florida's yet
02:05 to be seen. And that's something
02:07 that's going to be one of the
02:08 major talking points for the
02:09 Stanley Cup finals. Taking
02:12 advantage of game number six in
02:13 your own building certainly
02:14 worked out last night for the
02:15 Edmonton Oilers and also on a
02:16 Saturday night in South Florida
02:18 the Panthers didn't want to go
02:19 to game seven in the world's
02:21 most famous arena. They handled
02:22 their business by winning two to
02:24 one over the Rangers in an
02:25 absolutely exciting series. As
02:27 you can see that graphic on the
02:28 screen game. Number one was
02:29 three to nothing, but I always
02:30 bring up the point that was a
02:31 one-to-nothing game with route
02:32 maybe two minutes to go before
02:34 an own goal by the Rangers and
02:35 an empty netter. That series was
02:37 fantastic all the way through
02:38 and if you are a fan of either
02:39 team here Tom that was
02:41 incredible ride all throughout
02:42 and the Panthers got it done.
02:43 It was and I also think it
02:46 speaks to the strength of the
02:47 Panthers where you know first
02:48 game they do what they do a
02:50 couple overtime games anything
02:51 can happen they lose but their
02:53 strength and how they continue
02:54 to develop throughout the series
02:56 in finding the proper matchups
02:57 and continuing to get their
02:58 offense rolling which we saw at
03:00 times just to such an extreme
03:02 level where not only do they
03:03 limit the Rangers on defense,
03:04 but they are constantly pouring
03:06 on the pressure. We saw the
03:07 graphics all series long the
03:08 number of shot attempts always
03:10 favoring the Panthers Ozone time
03:12 high danger chances. Everything
03:13 was in favor of the Panthers and
03:15 ultimately just speaks to their
03:16 strength and what they've done
03:17 over the past few seasons. So
03:18 full credit to them. They
03:19 deserve to be here. They were
03:20 there last year. I'm expecting
03:22 them to come with a to host to
03:24 hoist Lord Stanley Cup when
03:25 it's all said and done. And
03:27 Florida is the favorite right
03:28 now at minus 128 on that series
03:32 outright price. You expect the
03:34 Panthers to hoist the cup when
03:36 all is said and done after this
03:38 Cup final. But how do these two
03:39 teams Tom match up in your
03:40 opinion? Florida still the
03:42 deeper team. They are, you know
03:44 much better on offense. They're
03:46 I think their defense is
03:47 stronger Bob Brodsky stronger.
03:48 I think every single spot you
03:49 could say that they're stronger
03:50 the power play is even I would
03:52 say it's slightly sides with the
03:53 Oilers just because the time
03:54 and talent that they have when
03:55 it comes to the bottom six for
03:56 the Oilers that is going to be
03:57 the difference maker. How do
03:58 those lines perform against very
04:00 strong bottom six lines for the
04:01 Panthers because ultimately
04:02 McDavid can't be out there for
04:03 30 minutes a night and when the
04:04 Panthers roll four lines deep
04:05 which they did in the final few
04:06 games of the Rangers series.
04:07 They're just better at every
04:08 step of the way. So how does
04:09 that perform? Also what happens
04:11 on the penalty kill for the
04:12 Panthers because if they take
04:13 too many penalties putting the
04:15 Oilers and advantageous spots
04:16 will always put them at a
04:17 detriment. Not a surprise when
04:18 we gave him dry side on the
04:19 Panthers. So I think they're
04:20 going to be a little bit better
04:21 on offense. I think they're
04:22 going to be a little bit better
04:23 on offense. Not a surprise when
04:24 we gave him dry side on the
04:25 other side. So the minutia of
04:27 the game I think is really going
04:28 to determine if the penalty the
04:29 power play those sorts of
04:30 things. If we're taking a look
04:32 at this series as a whole number
04:34 one. Do we think this series is
04:35 going to a long way and also
04:36 more importantly, it's always
04:38 nice to get out to that 10 series
04:40 lead Florida is going to have
04:41 homeless advantage at a minus 140
04:43 pricing game number one gear at
04:44 the fan blue sports book. How
04:46 are we looking for game number
04:47 one and more importantly, how
04:48 does this series play out? Well
04:50 game one five and a half over
04:52 what I expect from the first few
04:54 games is one or two of the first
04:56 three games is going to have a
04:57 lot of goals. It's going to be
04:58 five to two, maybe five to three
05:00 after that every other game is
05:02 about the under we saw it in the
05:03 series versus the Rangers of five
05:05 to four game. We saw versus the
05:06 Oilers with the Oilers versus the
05:08 Stars five to three, you know,
05:09 five to two those sorts of things
05:10 as soon as that over game hits.
05:12 It's all about the unders the
05:13 rest of the way. That's the way
05:14 I'll be approaching it. I expect
05:16 them to split the first two games
05:17 so whichever team wins the first
05:19 game. I'll simply be on the
05:20 Moneyline for the other team. I
05:21 don't expect to oh anyway, I
05:22 expect six games and I expect
05:24 Florida to win 42. So that's
05:25 where I'm looking to start, you
05:27 know, we can talk about the
05:28 cons might as well. If we have a
05:29 little bit time here, right?
05:31 We'll talk about the cons might
05:32 in just a moment, but I'll ask
05:33 you a quick follow-up. Then I'll
05:34 ask you about the cons might as
05:36 well quick follow-up Tom. You
05:38 have the Panthers winning the
05:39 Cup in six games. Wonderful for
05:41 the people of Sunrise. Is that
05:43 quantifiable or is it just your
05:45 hatred of Canada and you don't
05:46 want to see the Cup return to
05:47 the great white room? No, I
05:50 think the Panthers are the
05:51 better team. And again, as I
05:52 said, you give me Bob Brodsky
05:54 versus Skinner head-to-head. I
05:55 will take Bob gross Bob Brodsky
05:57 you give me the bottom six of
05:58 the Panthers. I'll take them
05:59 headset. I also think just the
06:00 defensive depth that the
06:01 Panthers have some big bodies
06:03 down low. I think they are going
06:04 to do their job at limiting the
06:06 offensive pressure from it.
06:07 David and dry settle as we saw
06:08 them do versus Posh Rock and
06:11 Marshawn as we saw them do
06:12 versus Panera and and Crider and
06:13 Savannah jet. They are great at
06:15 handling the matchups the way
06:16 they play they check every box
06:17 you possibly want for Stanley
06:18 Cup winning team.
06:19 I just wanted to clarify to make
06:21 sure that there were no Canadian
06:22 viewers that were upset with you
06:24 because of an idea that maybe we
06:26 were trying to deny Canada from
06:28 having Lord Stanley's Cup return
06:30 up to the great white North now
06:32 as you talked about the
06:33 individual perspective, you've
06:35 got a guy winning the cons Smythe
06:37 Award. That's the playoff MVP,
06:39 but now here in the Cup final
06:41 with a relatively large price.
06:43 Who is it? What team does he
06:44 play for and why might he win
06:46 the hardware?
06:47 That's going to Carter Verhage to
06:49 win the cons Smythe and a lot of
06:51 people say it could be Bob
06:52 Brodsky, which is absolutely
06:53 possibility, especially, you
06:54 know, shines through a lot of
06:55 people say Matt's good Chuck, but
06:56 when we look at them at head to
06:57 head basis so far and this is
06:58 just so far throughout the
06:59 playoffs could Chuck has 19
07:00 points five goals for Haiti has
07:02 17 points. He has nine goals. So
07:04 five goals for Chuck nine goals
07:06 for Verhage when it's all said
07:07 and done if they end with the
07:08 same amount of points, but
07:09 Verhage has that edging goals.
07:10 He's simply going to have the
07:11 advantage because the goals are
07:13 the same. So he's going to have
07:14 the advantage. He's going to
07:15 simply going to have the
07:16 advantage because the goals are
07:17 game-winning goals. They're the
07:18 ones that put you ahead of
07:19 sister. Nice and it's great to
07:20 have 20 assists or whatever
07:21 might be but the goals are what
07:23 step out in front and on the
07:25 score sheet and that's where
07:26 it'll be. So I like for Haiti
07:27 number one Bob Brodsky to and
07:29 then to Chuck could Chuck could
07:30 put up multi points every game.
07:32 I wouldn't be surprised but I
07:33 want to go for that high upside
07:34 with the goals as the
07:35 determining factor to win games
07:37 should be a fantastic Stanley
07:39 Cup final here that will begin
07:41 on Saturday night, but the NBA
07:42 finals before that they're going
07:44 to begin on Thursday night and
07:45 we do have some line movement
07:46 here this morning at the
07:47 Fandul Sportsbook Tom. We take a
07:48 look now the Boston Celtics have
07:50 moved from a six-point favorite
07:51 to a six and a half point
07:53 favorite and a total of 214 in
07:55 game number one. What can we
07:56 expect here with a few days to
07:58 go from your perspective on
07:59 Mad Celtics? It comes down to
08:01 the Porzingis news for the
08:03 Celtics. What is his official
08:04 status? Will he play will he be
08:06 limited in playing all those
08:08 sorts of things. I wouldn't be
08:09 surprised to see that line grow
08:11 you know, especially as we get
08:12 closer to the game of
08:13 Porzingis is officially ruled in.
08:14 I do think however, when
08:15 Porzingis gets ruled in that
08:17 does leave an opportunity for
08:18 it to take the Mavs at plus
08:19 seven or plus seven and a half
08:20 whatever might be I also think
08:21 Porzingis getting fully
08:22 acclimated offense that presents
08:24 too much variance and that does
08:25 leave an opening for the Mavs.
08:26 So I like the Mavs on the series
08:28 spread plus one and a half. I
08:29 would also have some interest in
08:30 taking Luka as the series MVP
08:32 because his numbers are a little
08:33 bit longer than the Mavs
08:34 outright line. About 16 cents of
08:38 difference there. Vecchio final
08:39 40 seconds of this segment. What
08:41 is your NBA final series
08:43 prediction? Or at least the best
08:45 bet for how you see this
08:46 championship series playing out?
08:48 I think it goes all seven games.
08:49 I do think the Mavs plus one and
08:52 a half on the series price. I do
08:53 think the Celtics win though. So
08:54 it will go all games. You can
08:56 find that correlation between
08:57 seven games. The Mavs still cover
08:58 the series spread. You can take
09:00 a team on the series MVP
09:02 whatever might be there are
09:03 different ways to approach it,
09:04 but Mavs cover Celtics win. And
09:07 let's not forget the jack of all
09:08 trades Bryce Harper two plus
09:09 total bases today in the game
09:11 tonight in Philadelphia against
09:13 the Milwaukee Brewers at minus
09:15 115. Tom Vecchio. He does it all
09:17 on this prop perspective Monday
09:19 and we say thank you.
09:20 [Music]
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