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00:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]
00:03 We are now just three days away from night number one,
00:09 game number one of the 2024 NBA Finals
00:12 inside TD Gordon in Boston between the Celtics
00:16 and the Dallas Mavericks.
00:17 Thursday is game number one of the NBA Finals.
00:21 And DRS, here we are, where the rest of this week,
00:24 plenty of previews and breakdowns
00:27 at every different angle you need
00:29 to know that will decide the NBA champion here in 2024.
00:33 The Mavericks into the NBA Championship Series
00:35 for the first time since 2011, when
00:37 Dirk, Dirk Davidsky, led Dallas to their only Larry O'Brien
00:42 trophy, just the third time for Dallas as a franchise
00:45 into the NBA Finals.
00:47 Boston on the other side, plenty more than that.
00:49 In fact, the Celtics have 17 NBA championships to their name,
00:54 but looking for their first since 2008
00:57 in the long and illustrious franchise history in Beantown,
01:01 second NBA Finals appearance for the Celtics
01:04 in the last three years.
01:06 And Boston remains a heavy favorite, minus 220,
01:10 for the Seas to win the NBA Championship
01:12 here in 2023-24 outright.
01:15 That number has not moved.
01:17 A couple of the other markets that
01:19 will determine what this NBA Finals looks like this season
01:23 have changed ever so slightly, but we start there.
01:27 Boston still remains greater than a $2 odds-on favorite
01:30 to win the Larry OB this season.
01:33 Yeah, and if we're taking a look as a handicapper,
01:35 this is actually a pretty tough series for me
01:37 so far before these games start up on Thursday night,
01:40 because you're saying to yourself, from a Boston
01:42 Celtics perspective, Ben, we knew all season long
01:44 they were the best team in the NBA record-wise,
01:47 and also no doubt in getting that number one
01:49 overall seed in the East, and probably the number one
01:51 overall seed in the NBA, which they do have.
01:53 But it would have been nice to sort of get a measured test
01:55 early on in the playoffs, like a healthy Philadelphia 76ers,
01:59 a healthy New York Knicks team, heck, even a healthy team
02:01 that they even faced off outside of the Milwaukee Bucks,
02:03 but we didn't get that here.
02:05 And then we saw the Dallas Mavericks throughout the season.
02:07 We knew they had talent, but we didn't
02:08 know that their upper echelon talent could play this well
02:11 and play this well together and be healthy,
02:13 and now they're finding themselves in the Finals
02:15 and running the gauntlet of a much, much tougher Western
02:18 Conference here.
02:19 So as I say, as a handicapper, which two teams
02:22 am I going to get on the first two nights of the NBA Finals?
02:25 Is it going to be the Dallas team that
02:27 has been phenomenal all the way through?
02:28 Is it going to be a Celtics team?
02:29 It's like, oh my gosh, we actually
02:30 got to play a formidable opponent here.
02:31 We haven't seen this just as of yet.
02:33 But as a fan, I love this to talk about it,
02:35 because you do have the upper echelon talent and superstars.
02:38 You don't have one of those, hey, Cinderella season,
02:40 let's see if it continues, like quite frankly,
02:42 the Miami Heat were last year.
02:44 So I'm right now just trying to average in,
02:46 what am I getting out of the Boston Celtics?
02:48 Because as you pointed out, they're a heavy series favorite
02:51 and should be, but I would have loved
02:52 that they would have beat down the Sixers,
02:54 or beat down the Knicks, or beat down the Bucs
02:56 when they were fully healthy on their way to the NBA Finals.
03:00 It's a really good point, DRS.
03:01 And we'll talk about how these odds are starting
03:04 to shift ever so slightly to make
03:06 it seem like we are going to get more of a competitive set
03:09 than maybe we imagined or anticipated at first.
03:13 But I had this conversation with a couple of friends
03:15 on Saturday afternoon over some Bruce, lively conversation,
03:19 one of my good friends from outside of Boston.
03:22 And we all kind of came to the same assessment, which
03:25 is fun to have those conversations with my friends
03:27 who don't necessarily work in sports,
03:30 and then those conversations with you
03:32 and plenty of talented guests here on the SportsGrid network.
03:36 And the overall belief being that Dallas
03:39 has two of the best players in this series.
03:41 In terms of superstars, Luka Doncic
03:44 is the best player in the NBA Finals.
03:46 You could probably make an argument for Jason Tatum
03:48 versus Kyrie Irving.
03:50 I'd give it to Tatum.
03:51 But when you go two versus two, Dallas is superior.
03:55 But where Boston has such a stark advantage
03:58 is the depth throughout their starting five,
04:00 throughout their rotation, and the return
04:02 of Kristaps Porzingis, who we have not
04:04 seen since the opening round series
04:07 for Boston against Miami.
04:09 And in that way, the depth you would think in an NBA Finals
04:13 probably favors the Celtics.
04:15 The idea being, DRS, if the Mavericks are victorious,
04:18 it means that Luka and Kyrie outplayed Jason Tatum and Jalen
04:22 Brown, and the equalizer was the depth.
04:25 If Boston is victorious, the advantage
04:28 wasn't so drastic for Luka and Kyrie over the Jays,
04:32 and the depth overall for the Celtics won the day.
04:36 You're right about that, because you take a look at the Dallas
04:38 Mavericks, and you look at their roster and say,
04:40 I wonder who is going to step up.
04:42 And sometimes, like, wow, that was a really good game out
04:45 of PJ Washington.
04:46 We don't have those surprises for the Boston Celtics.
04:48 Where you say Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum
04:50 are going to have a quality night.
04:51 But hey, if I would have told you Derek White splashed
04:53 five triples, like, yeah, that's what he does.
04:55 Or if you said Kristaps Porzingis
04:57 had 19 points and four blocks and 11 rebounds
05:00 coming back healthy, yeah, that's
05:01 what he's supposed to do here.
05:02 Or if you go to the bench, you'd be like, man,
05:03 I never figured Pritchard would go six of 11 for the game,
05:06 including three three-point shots.
05:08 No, that's what he does.
05:09 And that's what we anticipate and why
05:10 we think the Boston Celtics are better,
05:12 because you pointed out here, superstar versus superstar
05:15 at the front end.
05:15 That is going to be an unbelievable battle.
05:17 But I think we're just comfortable saying, all right,
05:19 if both of those superstar tandems have average nights,
05:23 who's going to step up?
05:24 And we think that there's much more talent on the Boston
05:26 Celtics, rightfully so, that could step up.
05:29 And that's just where you leave it.
05:30 And again, so many people will look at the series
05:32 and say, boy, that's a heavy price on the Celtics.
05:34 And it is.
05:35 But again, that price point is there for a reason.
05:37 It just wasn't as, like, to say, brought out of a hat,
05:39 like, OK, Celtics minus 220.
05:41 Have at it, betting public at this point.
05:43 The Celtics are a better team.
05:44 The Celtics are the home team here.
05:45 And the Celtics are going to be healthy in game number one
05:48 with their intact starting five.
05:50 So we'll see what the Mavericks have for them.
05:52 And listen, that is a large number at minus 220
05:55 in favor of Boston.
05:56 But the Celtics have been a four-digit, odds-on minus money
06:00 favorite in each of their first three series.
06:04 That included the Eastern Conference
06:06 finals against Indiana.
06:07 The Mavs a slight favorite in their opening
06:09 round against the Clippers.
06:10 Slight underdogs in both of their last two series
06:13 against OKC and Minnesota.
06:15 And we had similar conversations.
06:17 Which dynamic duo was better for the WCF?
06:20 Was it Ant and Cat for Minnesota or Luka and Kyrie for Dallas?
06:25 That was the story of the series.
06:26 That pair for Dallas strongly outplaying the other two
06:31 on the other side.
06:32 Luka Doncic 28-plus points in all five games
06:35 of the Western Conference finals.
06:37 But here's where things have changed.
06:40 Boston has been the odds-on favorite for the last three
06:43 rounds virtually of this NBA postseason.
06:47 Boston was the favorite entering the year
06:49 and became the solo favorite for a good majority of the NBA
06:54 season.
06:55 But entering the weekend, DRS, no action, of course,
06:58 has happened.
06:59 But entering the weekend, shortest correct score
07:02 was in six games.
07:04 Shortest total games was also in six
07:07 for how long the duration of the NBA championship
07:10 series played out.
07:12 And if we go back to the series spread,
07:14 Boston laying a game and a half.
07:16 For Boston to cover that number, they
07:18 would have to win this series in six games or less.
07:21 Four to two or shorter than that is now a plus money price.
07:25 Dallas getting a game and a half,
07:27 meaning this series goes seven, or the Mavericks
07:30 win it outright, is the expected VIG right there at minus 134.
07:36 That has changed ever so slightly,
07:38 where seven games, the full duration of the NBA finals,
07:42 is the slightly shorter and thus expected price at plus 190.
07:46 Listen, it's a $0.10 gap.
07:48 It's a $0.40 gap from five, six, or seven.
07:51 It is not stark by any means.
07:53 But we are starting to see maybe, just maybe,
07:55 DRS, this series expected to be a little bit tighter
07:59 than previously thought.
08:00 I think-- I want to say I'm betting public, maybe just
08:03 the public, probably rooting more for the Dallas
08:05 Mavericks as a fun story, as opposed to the Lakers
08:07 at this point-- excuse me, as opposed to the Celtics
08:09 at this point.
08:09 Because you're lining it up.
08:10 And a lot of people don't like the Celtics.
08:12 I'm in Philadelphia.
08:13 Certainly we don't like Boston.
08:14 There's no real animosity towards Dallas.
08:16 Now, in other sports, that's completely different,
08:18 but certainly not in the NBA, because of a Western conference
08:21 opponent.
08:21 But if you are looking at that series and saying,
08:23 like, it has to go six or seven games.
08:25 These are two quality opponents.
08:26 Well, you take a look at the Celtics,
08:28 and like, yeah, whatever you get-- no.
08:30 They didn't even get to a game number six
08:31 yet here in the NBA playoffs.
08:33 Let's see if they can actually happen in the finals.
08:35 And that's no shout at the Dallas Mavericks,
08:36 where they should be on a competitive level.
08:38 If we take a look at the layoff time
08:40 between the Western and Eastern conference
08:42 finals and the NBA finals, I think
08:43 that does benefit Dallas, because they
08:45 need to rest their superstars to get as much energy as they can,
08:48 as opposed to you take a look at that path
08:51 towards victory for the Celtics, which was quick sweeps--
08:53 or gentlemen's sweeps, I should say--
08:55 throughout those rounds before they actually
08:56 swelt the Indiana Pacers.
08:57 So for me, I'm actually sort of thinking
08:59 on the shorter side of the series.
09:01 But this comes to my agreement, where I said,
09:03 before this series starts, sometimes I just
09:05 got to watch these two teams play,
09:07 because I don't know what the Celtics are,
09:08 even though they have a great, great record here.
09:11 I know what the Mavericks are, which throws me
09:13 for a little bit of a loop, which
09:14 is going to be so much fun breaking this down,
09:16 until we get to Thursday's action.
09:18 We will look at game number one in the odd sport
09:21 and what it means for the entirety of this series
09:23 from a matchup perspective next.
09:25 Game number one of the 2024 NBA finals on Thursday.
09:30 The countdown continues here on this Monday
09:33 on the early line on SportsScreen.
09:35 The Celtics DRS, a six-point home favorite.
09:38 The over-under currently stands at 214 and a hook.
09:42 There has not been much movement in the odds
09:44 for the opening night of the NBA finals.
09:47 That says 5 and 1/2?
09:49 Or is my eyesight terrible here?
09:51 6 and 1/2.
09:52 6 and 1/2.
09:53 OK, that's back down to 6 as of this morning,
09:56 live on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
09:58 And we are a FanDuel-sponsored show.
10:01 Over-under, 214 and a hook.
10:04 Donny, as you look at the odds, Boston
10:06 has been booked as a favorite in all 14 of their NBA playoff
10:11 games so far of at least a 7 and 1/2 point margin.
10:16 This six-point spread, the shortest in favor of the Seas.
10:19 Boston, in fact, in their home games
10:21 has only been booked as a single-digit favorite once.
10:25 That was game number two of the Eastern Conference
10:28 finals, and the Celtics won by double digits
10:31 covering that number.
10:33 Meanwhile, for Dallas, 6 and 1 are the Mavericks straight up
10:37 as an underdog throughout this playoff run.
10:40 So Dallas does not balk at the idea of being an underdog.
10:44 How do you feel about what the numbers are telling you
10:48 entering game number one on Thursday evening?
10:51 I mean, they're really strong at this point,
10:53 and you're taking a look here.
10:54 This isn't a surprise, right?
10:56 You say to yourself, right now live at the FanDuel Sportsbook,
10:58 it's a six-point favorite here for the Boston Celtics.
11:01 So go take a look at where these early indicators are
11:03 coming from in the money, and the ticket spreads
11:06 are coming from the FanDuel.
11:07 How about this?
11:08 Percentage of bets on the spread,
11:09 which just means how many tickets are coming in,
11:11 don't matter the dollar amounts.
11:13 77% of those tickets coming in on the Dallas Mavericks.
11:17 And you can understand that from a public perspective.
11:20 I'm getting a really good basketball team
11:21 that I think can win game number one,
11:23 and you're going to give me six points.
11:25 Yeah, that works out.
11:26 Now granted, last time I would have told you that
11:28 with that line and say, you know what?
11:30 The Dallas Mavericks getting the four-and-a-half points
11:32 against the Timberwolves, and now it's up to five and a half,
11:34 and the public's loving the Mavericks.
11:36 Let's go the opposite direction.
11:37 Didn't work out all that well here.
11:39 So we'll see if that works out in game number one.
11:41 But that's a heavy number.
11:42 And also the money coming in, 71% here at the FanDuel Sportsbook,
11:45 backing the Dallas Mavericks as well,
11:47 just setting it up for game number one.
11:48 Now the interesting part about this, too, is, again,
11:51 getting back into what are the Celtics actually?
11:53 The team that you trusted all throughout the regular season,
11:55 you still trust in the playoffs, but really haven't played
11:58 an opponent that's been up to, I don't know,
11:59 at least being healthy enough to challenge you.
12:01 We're expecting that out of the Dallas Mavericks.
12:03 But also at the same time, what always creeps
12:05 into our minds here?
12:06 It's not as if both of these teams got done playing Saturday
12:10 night and played well, and they're going to match up Tuesday.
12:12 Everybody's in rhythm, and away we go.
12:14 This is a really long layoff to get ready
12:17 for the biggest moments of some of these guys' careers.
12:20 And playing into that in game number one, that's tough, man.
12:23 It really is, Ben.
12:25 -So, Donny, that was going to be my next question.
12:28 Rest versus rust, the age-old debate
12:30 by the time you get to significant games
12:33 in the postseason.
12:34 But it might just be rust versus rust or rest versus rest,
12:38 because Boston's last game of NBA playoff action
12:42 exactly a week ago today, on Memorial Day Monday,
12:45 knocking off the Pacers in Indianapolis in a tight one,
12:48 winning the Eastern Conference Finals in games
12:51 that were closer than expected,
12:53 but still only for a series sweep over Indiana.
12:57 Dallas' last game was on Thursday.
13:00 By the time we reach game number one of the NBA Finals,
13:02 that's a full week off for the Mavs,
13:04 probably good for Luka's ailing knee,
13:07 and that's 10 days off, about a week and a half, for Boston.
13:11 Does the rest advantage or disadvantage
13:14 come into play for either of the two clubs?
13:18 -And that's what's tough, and this is what's great,
13:19 where we can line it up until Thursday to say it.
13:22 But if I have an opinion right now
13:24 that I'm probably going to stick to here,
13:26 is I do think the rest advantage
13:27 really favors the Dallas Mavericks,
13:29 'cause we were talking about not Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown,
13:32 "Hey, banged up throughout the playoffs.
13:34 Be nice to get some rest."
13:35 We were hearing words from the Dallas Mavericks
13:37 behind the scenes like, "Hey, man,
13:39 Luka is really battling this knee injury,
13:41 and if it was the regular season,
13:42 he would miss multiple games,
13:44 but in the playoffs, you can't do that."
13:45 So if you give him over a week off and knowing,
13:48 it's not as if, like, Luka's the starting point guard
13:50 on the Dallas Mavericks, like, "Hey, look,
13:51 just get everybody involved here.
13:53 Get your 10 assists.
13:54 Make sure everybody gets their clean looks out here."
13:55 No, you need him to be the best player on the court
13:59 every single night, have the ball in his hands repeatedly,
14:02 and playing over 40 minutes a night.
14:04 I think the rest advantage right now
14:06 lines up with the Dallas Mavericks.
14:07 Why? Because they need their two superstars
14:10 with really charged-up batteries heading into the series,
14:13 because if you tell us right now,
14:15 average series from Tatum, average series from Brown,
14:18 hmm, you know what? Celtics probably still in it.
14:20 We'll see what happens.
14:21 Average series from Luka and Kyrie?
14:23 No, no, no.
14:23 They're not even making it to game six here, Ben.
14:26 For sure. Absolutely so.
14:27 The burden is going to be on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
14:30 Luka's points prop for game number 130 and a hook.
14:33 Kyrie Irving in his return to Boston, 24 and a half.
14:38 There are those narratives, of course,
14:39 to monitor Kyrie back inside TD Garden.
14:42 I don't think it's going to be a flattering homecoming
14:45 by any means, and Kristaps Porzeisias
14:47 against his former team in the Dallas Mavericks.
14:50 Boston has been the expected NBA championship favorite
14:54 all year long.
14:55 Co-favorite with the Bucs to win the NBA title
14:58 before the year got underway,
15:00 became a short favorite pretty much
15:02 by the time we got to February into the All-Star break.
15:05 I bet Boston had a plus 220 number in late March,
15:08 seeing how the path was starting to play out
15:11 in the Eastern Conference, and thus, here we are.
15:14 Boston a minus 220 favorite now to win the NBA title.
15:19 On the other side, though, Donnie,
15:21 the Mavericks had the seventh best price
15:23 to win the Western Conference before the season got started.
15:27 That number and their NBA championship number
15:29 got longer by the time we got to the All-Star break.
15:32 The Mavs won six straight, entering the All-Star break
15:35 in the middle of February,
15:36 and then went 18 and nine on the other side,
15:39 24 and nine in their final 33 NBA regular season games
15:44 as that duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving
15:48 started to click.
15:49 You said this early on.
15:51 You know what Dallas is,
15:52 based on what you have seen here in the postseason.
15:55 You still question slightly what you have seen
15:58 out of the Celtics.
16:00 Are you really questioning what Boston is as a team,
16:03 or is it just the idea they haven't been tested yet
16:06 in the NBA postseason?
16:08 - Yeah, I don't think it's fair to trust them as a team
16:10 because at every turn this year,
16:11 they proved you they're a great basketball team.
16:13 And I always like to get back to this premise of,
16:15 yes, they haven't faced top level talent
16:18 in the playoffs, Ben,
16:19 but it's not as if they were going six and seven games,
16:21 struggling to put these teams away.
16:23 They were ending these teams quite early in the series.
16:27 So I'm not worried about that,
16:28 but you see the big price tags here in the finals,
16:30 particularly in game number one.
16:32 It's just hard to say, yeah, I fully trust this team,
16:34 but I haven't seen it yet,
16:35 even though I know they're a good basketball team.
16:37 But again, we'll find out Thursday night right away
16:39 who that good basketball team is.
16:41 (upbeat music)
16:43 (upbeat music)