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00:00 [MUSIC]
00:05 So what a day in the NBA, but it ends finally with the opening night of the 2024
00:11 NBA Finals after a full week off from NBA playoff action.
00:15 The opening night of the NBA Championship Series happens on this Thursday evening
00:20 in Boston inside TD Garden between the Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks.
00:25 J.Y., you have been here multiple times since game number five of the Western
00:30 Conference Finals between the Mavs and the T-Wolves came to a close last night.
00:33 Multiple times since the Celtics swept the Indiana Pacers a week ago Monday
00:38 in the Eastern Conference Finals.
00:40 We have looked at the NBA Finals from every single angle.
00:44 It is finally time to truly break down game number one and what we see tonight
00:49 inside TD Garden.
00:51 Here are the updated numbers at this moment. A six and a half point spread in favor
00:56 of Boston. The over-under, 215 and a hook.
01:00 J.Y., you see the spread, you see the total.
01:02 What do the numbers tell you about how game one plays out tonight in Beantown?
01:07 Well, the numbers tell you that they think that, you know, Boston should be able to
01:11 jump them right off the bat, but I'm just not so sure.
01:14 I think this number, you know, Ben, I think it's a little bit high here.
01:18 It opened at five and a half, moved to six and a half, it's kind of stood at six and a half.
01:22 I see a pathway where this game is covered by Dallas.
01:25 I think Dallas is a team defensively that can grind your gears and kind of get after you
01:29 a little bit.
01:30 And I do think you have a situation where I think they can keep the game close,
01:34 if not steal it.
01:35 So I like Dallas plus a six and a half right off the jump.
01:38 When you look at the total, right, and you're thinking about, you know, 215 and a half
01:43 and you think about two good defensive teams, I look at the offensive shot making
01:47 from both sides.
01:48 I also look at the fact that if I think the game's going to be close, you now look at foul situations,
01:52 stop clock, advance the ball, more possessions the last two minutes of the game.
01:56 So to me, I like the plus six and a half, and I like over 215 and a half in the game.
02:01 So I think there'll be points.
02:02 I think 220 plus tonight.
02:03 I think there's going to be some offense.
02:06 We take a look at some of the betting stats here from the FanBull Sportsbook on the way
02:09 this game is shaping up.
02:10 75% of the tickets coming in on the Dallas Mavericks, but yet we still have that six
02:14 and a half point line.
02:16 Coach, you've been around the block, you know, here.
02:17 Let's take a look at the two teams entering into this environment because when you're
02:21 in mode from, you know, September, October, all the way through to the end of the regular
02:25 season, you're playing every few days.
02:27 You've been engaged, certainly.
02:29 Now we're taking a look at teams that have over a week off extended break.
02:32 Is the play expected to be sloppy early on or are these guys going to be on their Ps
02:36 and Qs right away, rested, healthy, and prepared tonight?
02:40 Both.
02:42 And it really depends on the player.
02:44 For me, when you look at a team like Boston, I am a little bit deranged.
02:49 One of the reasons why I like Dallas plus the points is the poor Zingis factor.
02:52 Number one, we don't know if this guy's completely healthy.
02:54 Well, let's be honest.
02:55 And he's basically said I'm not 100%.
02:57 Number two is how you're going to integrate a guy that hasn't played since April 29th.
03:02 Right?
03:03 So to me, that kind of lends me to like, even as a rim protector, there should be more points
03:07 there.
03:08 And then, you know, for a team like Dallas, I think they need the rest.
03:11 You know, having growing series, having an OKC series go six games for them to get a
03:15 little bit of break, especially when a team that's so reliant on Luke and Kyrie to get
03:20 going.
03:21 Now, I know that Luke was not good at some points and it's really his game has taken
03:25 off the last three or four games.
03:27 I think the rest is good for them.
03:28 I think there's points here tonight, guys.
03:30 And I think, you know, you'll see an up and down game.
03:33 The chess match to me is going to really start after game number one.
03:37 When you figure out for Joe Mazzola, because I don't know if Porzingis is healthy.
03:43 I don't know how much you can rely on Al Horford.
03:45 I think Gafford and Lively may be a little bit too long and a little bit too athletic
03:49 for a guy like Al Horford to defend.
03:52 Both of these two teams enter game number one of the NBA finals, having gone over in
03:57 five of their previous six playoff games.
04:01 Kristaps Porzingis playing for the first time since April 29th.
04:05 That was game four of the opening round against Miami.
04:08 His points prop tonight, 15 and a hook.
04:11 But, J-Y, when we think of the magnitude of tonight's opening game, we start with the
04:16 Jays, the staples of this core for the Boston Celtics.
04:20 Back into the NBA finals for a second time in the last three years.
04:24 This group, this tandem, they will be judged by ultimately taking home championship banner
04:30 number 18 for this Celtics franchise.
04:34 Tatum's points prop tonight, 27 and a half.
04:37 Brown's points prop tonight, 23 and a hook.
04:41 How important is it for both of these stars for Boston to match the occasion of game number
04:46 one of the NBA finals tonight?
04:49 I think it's very important, Ben, because when you look at these two superstars, they
04:53 have times where they do disappear.
04:56 You've seen Jason Tatum struggle mightily.
04:58 I still think of that 6-for-17 performance in game number six versus the Warriors a couple
05:03 years ago.
05:04 Jalen Brown, who's been really good.
05:06 They need those guys to step up because I've always thought going into this series, Ben,
05:11 I thought that Luka and Kyrie were going to outperform Tatum and Jalen Brown.
05:17 So to me, it's how close can Brown and Tatum be to Luka and Kyrie?
05:24 Because I think Luka and Kyrie are going to be absolutely dynamic in this series.
05:28 So it's important for them and it's important for a good start for those guys because,
05:32 especially for Tatum after game six, the last thing you want to do is go 6-for-17 game one,
05:37 Ben, and now you're starting out.
05:39 You're already having doubts going into game two.
05:42 If we're taking a look at some other players on the Boston Celtics, the key ingredient
05:46 here is this is a very good team getting back a quality player.
05:49 A guy that's averaging 20-7 in the regular season.
05:52 That's Christophe Porzingis.
05:53 We take a look here at the fan-due sportsbook coach.
05:55 15-and-a-half is his points prop.
05:57 Number one, how long do we think he plays tonight in the starting lineup and how effective
06:01 will Christophe Porzingis be?
06:03 I would be looking at the rebounds more than anything with KP.
06:07 I know that's why I've been on this network talking about it.
06:09 I think he leads the series in rebounding because of his ability to be around the basket.
06:13 I don't know right off the bat about his scoring.
06:16 That's something I'm going to have to look and watch in game number one.
06:19 I think Derek White is someone also we have to take a look at and see what he does
06:23 offensively because he's a guy that can stretch the floor.
06:26 On the other side, I keep looking at P.J. Washington, guys,
06:30 and that's a guy's points prop at 11-and-a-half.
06:32 I like that a bunch of, I think, Fandel has it for the 10-plus points every game.
06:38 This is a guy that's gone over six straight games versus Boston.
06:42 I think every time he's in 14 or more.
06:45 I really like 11-and-a-half points to go over for P.J. Washington.
06:49 I can't touch the threes because it's too much juice.
06:52 11-and-a-half plus points for P.J. Washington tonight.
06:55 Double digits for P.J. Washington in all five against Minnesota.
06:59 In fact, he has reached double digits in 10 of the last 11 games for the Dallas Mavericks.
07:05 We'll talk about Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving on the other side
07:09 and some finals predictions up next here on the early line on this Thursday on SportsGrid.
07:16 Might be the last time we have J.Y. on the program.
07:18 Before he goes, joins the staff with Shaheen Holloway at Connecticut
07:22 and one of you, Todd Husky. More coming your way next.
07:25 Game number one of the 2024 NBA Finals tonight in Beantown inside TD Garden
07:30 between the Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics.
07:33 J.Y., in our preview of the series overall, it's been pretty easy to share
07:38 why if you have belief in Dallas, it starts with Luka Doncic.
07:42 You add in the dynamic duo that was Kyrie Irving for Dallas
07:46 in the Western Conference Finals against Minnesota.
07:49 That's your path.
07:50 If they can outplay the Boston Celtics almost single-handedly between the pair,
07:55 that's how Dallas ends with his second NBA championship
07:59 and three NBA Finals appearance in franchise history.
08:03 So when you look at Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving for tonight,
08:07 31.5 is the points prop for Luka.
08:10 23.5 is the number for Kyrie Irving.
08:14 What does Dallas need out of this duo in terms of offensive output
08:20 if the Mavericks are going to steal game one on the road?
08:24 50 combined points.
08:26 How do you say this? 50 combined points.
08:29 And what you need, guys, is I need Kyrie to not wait.
08:34 I need Kyrie to be ultra-aggressive from the jump.
08:38 You have seen--I know we've talked about this term all the time.
08:42 First side, second side of the floor.
08:45 I need right off the bat a guy like Kyrie Irving
08:48 to be willing to shoot the ball and try and go off early.
08:53 One thing that's interesting enough, Kyrie's points prop for the first quarter
08:57 is over 4.5 points at -118 right now on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
09:03 And I think that's something I'm going to look for.
09:05 I'm going to look for Kyrie to be a little bit aggressive
09:08 because if you look at it--you know, if I'm Jason Kidd,
09:11 I'm putting Luka Dodgic on the first side of the floor
09:14 where Drew Holliday hopefully engages second defender.
09:17 Then I throw it to Kyrie where I think he's got as much or a better mismatch
09:21 offensively against Derek White and try to get Kyrie going.
09:26 Because he's in Boston, because of the hatred,
09:29 because of how they're going to treat him,
09:31 I think it's important for him to get going early,
09:34 get him a couple of shots, and let him relax.
09:37 I like Kyrie Irving first quarter over 4.5 points.
09:41 Take a look at this series and the prices here.
09:44 The Boston Celtics to win the series, Coach, at a -225 price.
09:47 If we're taking a look at that spread on the series,
09:49 the Boston Celtics a -1 and a game--excuse me, -1.5,
09:53 and that's at a +106 price.
09:55 Are we looking at an extended series?
09:57 And also more importantly, who ends up winning the series and hoisting the trophy?
10:02 Donnie, I am not changing my pick.
10:05 I came on this show right after it happened,
10:09 and I said Dallas and six, and I'm sticking to it.
10:13 My mother is like I said, my mother was saying,
10:15 that's my story, and I'm sticking to it.
10:17 I'm sticking to it.
10:19 Dallas and six games to win this series,
10:22 people are talking about Dallas and seven, Dallas and seven.
10:25 I don't see a path of them winning a game seven in the TD Vanguard,
10:31 even though I think Luka Dodgers can super-handedly put them on his back and do so.
10:36 Too much of a heavy lift.
10:38 I think this is 1-1 after two games,
10:40 and I think this is a six-game series.
10:43 Dallas Mavericks win the NBA championship.
10:46 The Dallas Mavericks to win the NBA Finals in six games, 4-2, is +550.
10:52 It is the shortest correct score in that market for the Mavericks to end as a champion.
10:57 The three shortest prices, though, all see Boston winning in 5-7 or 6 in that exact order.
11:06 So, J-Y, if we looked at game number one of the 2024 NBA Finals tonight,
11:11 if you had to dwindle it down--dwindle it down is the right word--
11:15 if you had to dwindle it down to a best bet,
11:18 what is your best bet for the opening night of the NBA Finals in Boston tonight?
11:23 P.J. Washington over 11.5 points is my best bet.
11:28 I think he has a game.
11:30 If you want to look at it, maybe an all, depending on what it is, for P.J. to get you 15-plus points,
11:36 that would be something I'm intrigued at.
11:38 That's +210 right now on the FanDuel Sportsbook
11:41 because I think he is going to have to be the third guy.
11:44 I think P.J. Washington is going to have a sneaky good series
11:48 because I think at times Tatum could get lost defensively.
11:51 That corner three pocket left corner is going to be wide open for him.
11:54 Two and a half made threes.
11:56 That's P.J. Washington Jr.'s three-point prop tonight.
11:59 He has been great from deep for Dallas throughout this series.
12:02 The under the heavy juice at -220.
12:05 He is -230 to make at least two threes in game number one of the 2024 NBA Finals.
12:13 J-Y, as always, we appreciate the time.
12:16 You stay on the phones.
12:17 You stay on the phones.
12:19 You keep contacting the Hurley family, and you figure out if Dan is on his way to L.A.
12:24 I don't care about Woj.
12:26 I don't care about Shams.
12:27 We need a new breaking news insider into the mix.
12:30 And could it be our coach, J-Y James Young?
12:34 J-Y, as always, thank you.
12:36 Fade away to the break ahead of game number one of the 2024 NBA Finals tonight.
12:40 [Music].
12:43 (bells chiming)