Game 5 NBA Western Conference Finals: Betting Trends & Tips
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00:00It's game five of the Western Conference Finals in the NBA
00:05postseason to Minneapolis. We go once more where the Timber
00:09Wolves are trying to stave off elimination again. The Mavericks
00:13just one more win away from an NBA Finals birth their first
00:18since they won the Larry O'Brien Trophy back in 2011.
00:23It's a four and a half point spread in favor of the T Wolves
00:26at home the over under 209 and a hook DRS. Let's start with
00:31the actual numbers themselves. Minnesota has been a favorite
00:34seven times in this playoff run all seven games at home in the
00:39twin cities. This is the second highest total we have seen in
00:43this series 211 was the highest that was game for the only
00:47under the only win for Minnesota. We have seen so far
00:50in the WCF and what are the betting trends telling us about
00:55where the money is invested as it correlates us to the spread
00:59of game number five tonight. Yeah, we're still close to eight
01:03out of every ten tickets here coming in on the Dallas
01:05Mavericks. So it'll be interesting to see how we move
01:07through the afternoon as most people get home from work
01:10settle in for the game. The bets come in a little bit later
01:12where that public support is actually going to be coming
01:15from, but the public support right out of the gate has been
01:17and looks like it's going to stay with at least the Dallas
01:20Mavericks. We just don't know how high that price point is
01:22going to be and also if those odds are going to change
01:25because the most times we're going to look at this and say
01:27well home team is favorite. They should win this game. We
01:30should see a game number six. I get that, but you know we saw
01:33last time in game number two. We had the Timberwolves with a
01:36late lead turn the basketball over and then we saw Luca
01:40Donchic toying out there with the four-time defensive MVP and
01:43Rudy Gobert and splashing a triple down and it's a
01:45family-oriented show. So we won't say exactly what Luca
01:48said, but he was giving him the business just to be polite.
01:51We'll see if that happens again, but it's not like we're
01:53saying. Oh, the Dallas Mavericks can't go in and beat
01:55the Timberwolves. They beat him twice on their home court here
01:58and we'll see if it holds up again tonight, but that overall
02:01heavy public support as wait a second. Dallas is getting
02:04points. Where do I sign up? We know how that works out now. Is
02:08it a handicap? No, but the public perception sometimes
02:11overwhelming on an underdog price. We usually see where that
02:15winds up. I'm interested to see and as I told you, I've been I
02:18was feeling the Dallas Mavericks like, you know, they
02:20can go in there and win that game and I still think they can
02:22but seeing that heavy public support so much on there
02:25without a real line move gives me a little bit of those
02:27puzzling thoughts. And these are percentage of spread bets,
02:31right? The overall amount of tickets 78% of those Dallas
02:35with the points plus four and a half 60% of the overall money
02:40on the Dallas Mavericks plus four and a half as well. And
02:43yet the market has worked in Minnesota's favor from
02:46yesterday just by a half point four points yesterday in favor
02:49of the T Wolves four and a half on this Thursday game day
02:53morning in Minneapolis ahead of game number five. Donnie, we
02:57talked about this entering game number four series clinching
03:00potential for Dallas elimination game on the other
03:04side for Minnesota. Things tend to tighten up ever so slightly
03:10in those scenarios. You have said it often as you get later
03:14into a playoff series. That's when you start to lean under
03:18Minnesota's first and only win of the Western Conference
03:21Finals is the first and only under we have seen of a
03:25pregame number. It was the highest pregame over under at
03:28211 in total. Of course, all four of Minnesota's wins in
03:33their second round series against Denver total state
03:37under the pregame number as well. What do you think we see
03:41from an offensive output and point perspective as it
03:45pertains to that 209 on the hook? Yeah, you probably should
03:48be leaning more towards the under again getting later in
03:51the series and also a couple factors can play into this. So
03:54many times if you bet, it doesn't matter what sport you
03:56know what I'm going to pick this quarterback in the NFL.
03:58I'm going to pick this wide receiver. I'm going to pick
04:00this, you know, starting point guard or shooting guard in the
04:02NBA when you get a blowout, it typically blows up your plans
04:06because those final three, four or five minutes of the game,
04:09particularly in the NBA, you need your starter to be in
04:11there to get a couple extra rebounds, a couple extra points
04:14knocked down an extra three point shot. They might head to
04:16the bench. The reason I bring this up is we are expecting a
04:19great performance out of both of these teams. Number one for
04:21the Dallas Mavericks looking to close out the Timberwolves.
04:24Number two for the Timberwolves looking to extend the series,
04:27but there sort of is that notion where Dallas had a
04:29chance to wrap it up at home or unable to do that. You know
04:32you're going back to a buzzsaw in Minnesota or they're excited
04:36about getting that victory. The fans maybe thought they
04:38weren't going to get to see another game and you might get
04:40jumped at the beginning of this one. And the reason I bring
04:43up the blowout factor is what happens if we see late in that
04:46game with five to six minutes to go a 17 point lead and it's
04:49not all that high scoring. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving going
04:52to the bench. Why? Not because they must come back and win
04:55this or they're eliminated. Hey, you know what? Gave it our
04:57best shot. It didn't work. We know we have game six in our
05:00pocket at home. Let's not get any injuries here. Let's just
05:03get back home and that tends to lead to more unders here. So
05:05that 209 and a half for me, will I play tonight? Probably
05:08not. But my thought process behind it, if there is going to
05:12be a double digit victory tonight, I don't think it's
05:15going to be from a Mavericks perspective and I'm not saying
05:17the Mavericks can't win the game. I just feel that it's one
05:20of those where, okay, we didn't do well in game five. We still
05:22got game six in our building. Let's handle our business there
05:25with the Timberwolves, ice them out in the second half but
05:27still a lean later in the series again on a 209 and a
05:30half. We have not seen a double digit victory margin in any of
05:36the four games in the WCF. All four games decided by nine
05:40points or less. Three of the four by five points or less.
05:44The two in Minneapolis to start by a total of four points in
05:49those two contests. Four and a half is the number tonight. So
05:54DRS as we look at Dallas's dynamic duo and the points
05:57props for the Mavericks. Game number four was the only game
06:01so far that Kyrie Irving has not scored at least 20. It was
06:05the first game that both Luka and Kyrie stayed under their
06:08pre-game points prop. Thirty and a hook is the number for
06:11Donchus. Twenty-three and a half is the number for Irving. If
06:14Dallas gets to the NBA finals with a victory tonight, how
06:18many do Luka and Kyrie combine to score? Yeah, they're gonna
06:22have to be sensational tonight. Both of those combines should
06:24be in the 60s if they win this basketball game and that's the
06:27biggest. So, that's how you're trying to play it out. If you
06:30do think you have a winning ticket in your pocket at that
06:32plus four and a half which means they were competitive if
06:34not won that game outright, it would be hard press for me to
06:37think that Luka Donchus and Kyrie Irving were riding high
06:40in this game. Like, yeah, they won that game at twenty-three.
06:43Kyrie had twenty-four and that's the way it worked out.
06:45If there's one guy I wanna say like, if you are leaning
06:48towards the Mavericks, doesn't it feel like Luka's gonna be in
06:50the thirties if they win this game with of another triple
06:53double. It just feels that way to me, Ben. Three and a half is
06:57still the three-point prop for Luka. He's had at least three
07:00triples in all four games. The last three, five, five, four,
07:05made threes. The boys are getting ready for game five.
07:09Early to do so up next. Live right here on this Thursday on
07:13the early line ahead of game number five tonight in the
07:15Western Conference Finals in the NBA postseason in
07:19Minneapolis, the Timberwolves, a four and a half point favorite,
07:22the over under 209 in a hook. We looked at the prop perspective
07:26for the Mavs. We do the same for the home team tonight in
07:28the Twin Cities, the Timberwolves. Donny, it should
07:31be no surprise that Minnesota's first victory of the WCF came
07:34with the best game combined out of both Anthony Edwards and
07:38Carl Anthony Towns. Fifty-four combined points out of the two
07:41stars for Minnesota. Twenty-nine from Anthony Edwards
07:45as well as ten rebounds and nine assists. We also saw twenty-five
07:50points out of Cat. Four made triples, most of them coming in
07:54the second half. How good do both Ant and Cat need to be
08:00tonight if we are going to see a sixth game in the Western
08:02Conference Finals? They need to be really good. Now,
08:05sometimes you get a reprieve on your home court being
08:08superstars because your bench players typically play better
08:10at home than they do on the road. It's only rightful but at
08:13this point again, I get back to that last, you know, game four
08:16where it's like, okay, Anthony Edwards late in the game
08:19sealing the deal. Anthony Edwards had a solid game
08:21overall. Carl Anthony Towns showing up in the second half
08:23with some dagger three-point shots. Those usually translate
08:26over to the next game. Anybody that's played any sport, hey
08:29man, the way you left the golf course, the way you left the
08:32ice, the way you left the arena, boy, that's that good
08:35vibe that's going to carry over because if you had Carl Anthony
08:37Towns again, let's just say they won that game of Carl
08:39Anthony Towns was one of nine from three-point range. He's
08:42going to be tentative to shoot three-point shots in the very
08:45next game. The fact that he ended with a flurry, he should
08:48be chucking three-point shots with confidence early and it's
08:51the same thing with Anthony Edwards. I don't need the
08:53three-point shot. I don't need to shoot five of twelve from
08:55three and not get to the rim. I can be all encompassing out
08:58here which includes getting my rebounds and getting my team
09:01involved by getting close to ten assists. Those two guys
09:04have to play dynamic basketball tonight for them to win. Do we
09:07need them to be 40-point Anthony Edwards and 30-point
09:10Carl Anthony Towns? No, you just can't throw the clunker in
09:13tonight, Ben. That's all. Nas Reed over one and a half made
09:18threes. Jaden McDaniels over one and a half made threes. He
09:22hit six in game number one. Carl Anthony Towns over two and
09:26a half made triples at plus 150. We'll give you a best bet
09:32from this game in just a little bit but again, I do believe it
09:36bears repeating. Minnesota was down in an 0-3 deficit here in
09:39the Western Conference Finals. Dallas had a 3-0 series
09:42advantage. The 156th best of seven series in NBA playoff
09:47history. A team has held a 3-0 series lead. In the previous
09:51155 including this year's Eastern Conference Finals
09:54between the Celtics and the Pacers. The team that was up
09:573-0 unsurprisingly has won all 155. Only 15 times in the prior
10:04155 have we seen a team even win two straight. That is what
10:09Minnesota is trying to do in forcing a game six tonight.
10:13Only four times in 155 sets have we see a team force a game
10:20seven. Minnesota trying to keep the Western Conference
10:23Finals going and their season afloat. Dallas one went away
10:26from their third ever appearance in franchise history
10:30into the NBA Finals. What will the story be come a Friday
10:33morning here on the early line? But before we go, before we say
10:36farewell, before we say goodbye, it is time for that best bet.
10:40It is time for bye bye bye.
10:47Danny right side. What do you like on this Thursday around
10:50the sports landscape? Yeah, I was going to go Major League
10:53Baseball, which we casted a ticket yesterday on an RBI
10:55prop. There's a couple that I like today, so I'll be putting
10:57them out there if the people want to know, but I feel like I
11:00have to go back to fading the public today in this game. Who
11:03you know me? I was leaning on the Dallas Mavericks to start,
11:06but now I've sort of turned that tide. I'm going to lay the
11:09four and a half points tonight as my best bet. Home court
11:12advantage will rise to the occasion tonight and game
11:15number six we will see in Dallas and we, talking about
11:18the Timberwolves, will win by margin tonight, laying that
11:20four and a half points with those T-wolves. It is very
11:24fishy and intriguing that nearly eight out of every ten
11:27tickets are on Dallas with the points plus four and a half and
11:31yet the line is working to Minnesota. My best bet from the
11:35Western Conference Finals game five, Anthony Edwards over six
11:38and a half assists. He is going to hold on to that basketball.
11:42He's going to take control of this offense. He is going to
11:45facilitate. If you want to get eight plus at plus 130,
11:48something he has done in three of the four games, wouldn't
11:51fault you there.