On "Forbes Newsroom," Mark Penn, legendary pollster and founder and CEO of Stagwell Inc., spoke about a new Harvard/Harris poll showing voters' attitudes towards the 2024 presidential election, the economy, the Israel-Hamas war, the impact of third party candidates, the impact of a possible guilty verdict in former President Trump's NYC hush money trial, and more.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - Hi everybody, I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes Breaking News.
00:05 Joining me now is Chairman and CEO of Stagwell Inc.
00:08 Also Chairman of Harris Poll, Mark Penn.
00:10 Mark, thanks so much for joining me once again.
00:13 - Thank you, happy to be here.
00:16 - We're happy to have you.
00:17 There is a wide ranging Harvard Caps Harris Poll for May
00:20 that I wanna dive into.
00:22 It has all things to do with 2024.
00:25 Let's start with President Biden's approval rating,
00:28 which remains unchanged at 44%.
00:31 What does that mean that it didn't move month to month?
00:33 - Well, in our poll, it shows that President Biden's
00:39 ratings are more or less static.
00:42 And below 45 is hard for a president to get reelected.
00:47 Below 40, I would say it's impossible.
00:50 Below 45, it's certainly possible, but hard.
00:53 And the president's been out there trying to improve it,
00:55 talking about the economy, saying he's doing a better job,
00:58 and it's not moving.
01:00 And importantly, when people look back
01:02 and I ask the job approval rating of President Trump,
01:05 Trump gets a 55% job approval rating.
01:08 So that 11 point gap is a critical part
01:11 of what's motivating voters in these polls.
01:15 And Biden has either gotta bring his up
01:17 or bring Trump's down.
01:19 - Why do you think Trump's is so high at 55%?
01:23 Is it because voters really think that he's done
01:26 such a better job compared to Biden?
01:28 Is it Trump nostalgia, perhaps looking at the past
01:31 with rose colored glasses?
01:32 What's that about?
01:33 - Well, you have to say nostalgia in the sense
01:37 that people are evaluating things in the past.
01:40 So when people look back in the past,
01:42 like their childhood, maybe they were great,
01:45 maybe not as good, but are they as objective as at the time?
01:49 Because at the time, President Trump never got
01:53 a 55% job approval.
01:56 So he is getting in retrospect, and perhaps in comparison,
02:00 a 55% job approval, higher than he got
02:03 when he was actually doing the job.
02:05 But nevertheless, that's the fact,
02:08 that's how the voters see it.
02:10 - If he's getting a higher job approval rating now
02:13 than when he was president, who was warming up to him?
02:15 What do those demographics look like?
02:18 - Well, I think across the board,
02:20 you're seeing the demographics warm up to Trump,
02:25 surprisingly in black and Hispanic communities as well,
02:30 because I think it's really the flip side of,
02:33 if you think the economy is not going well,
02:37 then you tend to blame Biden and tend to think Trump
02:40 did a better job with the economy.
02:42 And there are a lot of voters out there,
02:45 even though President Biden has a case
02:48 that the economy has improved, there was no recession,
02:51 growth is happening, jobs are good.
02:54 People are focusing on inflation,
02:56 and prices are up about 20%
02:58 from when President Biden took office.
03:00 - I wanna break down the economy by the numbers,
03:03 because the economy, as you said,
03:05 and inflation remain top issues facing voters.
03:08 Earlier this month, the NASDAQ closed at an all-time high,
03:11 the S&P 500 hit a record high,
03:14 and April CPI report showed inflation is cooling down.
03:18 Do you think voters will attribute these types of numbers,
03:21 think more favorably about Biden
03:23 when it comes to the economy,
03:24 or is that not the case just yet?
03:26 - Well, this is what has heads scratching
03:31 over at the Biden campaign.
03:33 They're saying the economy is getting better,
03:34 inflation is coming down, jobs are good,
03:37 unemployment is low.
03:38 If I ask people, how are you doing in their personal life,
03:41 a lot of people say pretty good.
03:43 And they're wondering, why can't we communicate this?
03:46 Well, I think there are one or two explanations of that.
03:50 One is inflation, unlike unemployment, affects everybody.
03:54 So unemployment, if it goes from 3% or 4% to 6%,
04:00 that affects directly 2%.
04:03 When the price of eggs goes up 30 or 40%,
04:07 that affects almost everybody who buys eggs.
04:11 And so I do think you see this widespread inflation effect.
04:14 And we haven't seen that in politics for a long time,
04:17 'cause we haven't seen inflation
04:19 since perhaps Jimmy Carter.
04:21 But it was devastating back then,
04:23 and it is devastating now to a politician
04:26 running for office.
04:28 And nearly 50% of the people in our poll
04:31 believe that their personal economic situation
04:33 is getting worse.
04:35 And again, that is primarily traceable
04:37 to the higher expense of middle-class life.
04:41 - So Mark, based on that,
04:42 do you think that this election
04:43 is going to come down to the economy and the economy alone?
04:47 - Well, the economy, as you know, is always a big issue.
04:51 But there are a number of issues floating around here.
04:53 The economy, immigration, crime, climate change,
04:57 racial equity, abortion.
04:59 I'm not gonna attribute it yet to one single issue,
05:03 because we're not down to the final shoot of the campaign,
05:06 which won't occur until Labor Day.
05:08 If I had to call the campaign today,
05:11 Trump is clearly ahead.
05:12 People are upset about the economy.
05:14 They think Trump did a better job.
05:16 And that's the basis on which I'd call the election.
05:19 - And if you would call the election today,
05:22 Trump is ahead in that horse race.
05:24 Aside from the economy, are there other factors as to why?
05:28 - Well, right now, surprisingly,
05:31 Trump's personal rating is ahead of Biden's
05:34 by several points.
05:35 I saw that too in other polls.
05:37 I was looking pretty carefully.
05:39 Do we have an anomaly here?
05:40 Because Trump's personal ratings
05:42 have always been a lot lower than President Biden's.
05:44 But President Biden's personal ratings are lower.
05:47 The economic situation, as you see it.
05:49 And I also think what the president did
05:52 on the Israel-Hamas situation,
05:55 he's down to a 36% approval rating.
05:59 Most voters disagree with his decision
06:01 to withhold weapons from Israel.
06:04 And the more he leans to the left on Israel,
06:08 the more his ratings and his vote
06:10 seems to be going down, not up.
06:12 - I wanna talk about third-party candidates.
06:15 How is a third-party candidate like Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
06:19 impacting the horse race here?
06:21 - It's really hard to tell what the impact
06:25 of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is gonna be.
06:27 It looks like he's mostly neutral.
06:30 Might take a hair more from Biden.
06:33 But you know, a lot of people don't know
06:35 who Robert F. Kennedy is or what he stands for.
06:38 There could be some pretty big changes here.
06:40 He could flame out in the end
06:42 and just get a couple of points.
06:44 But if I had to call it today,
06:46 today he's neutral to maybe a point minus,
06:50 but he's not making the voter decision here.
06:53 The preference in the vote is much larger
06:56 than any difference he is making.
06:58 - What is making the voter decision here?
07:01 Is this election going to come out to turnout,
07:03 both Trump and Biden turning out their bases,
07:06 or is it going to come out to either of those top candidates
07:09 trying to convince independents to vote for them?
07:12 - Well, we have 31% of the population,
07:17 the voting population who says, "I'm gonna change my mind.
07:20 "It's not totally made up."
07:22 So no, I don't think this is gonna come down to turnout.
07:25 Turnout is going to be high.
07:26 It's gonna be high on both sides.
07:28 It's gonna come down to the swing voters, suburban moms,
07:32 a lot of people, a lot of men, I think,
07:36 have been moving over to Trump, women sticking with Biden.
07:41 It's gonna come down to that gender gap.
07:43 I think it's gonna come down to the basics
07:45 in the electorate not to turn out.
07:48 - The poll also found that a majority of voters
07:51 want a presidential debate.
07:53 How much do you think this is going to move the needle?
07:56 We're going to see one in June and one in September.
07:59 - Well, over 70% were enthusiastic about seeing a debate,
08:04 and I think at least the first debate,
08:06 it's gonna get a very big audience,
08:08 particularly if it's broadcast as a roadblock
08:11 across many networks.
08:13 I think this is a high-risk move on the Biden campaign.
08:18 They've been looking at very static polling numbers.
08:21 They've been looking at Trump doing better
08:23 and better each month.
08:25 And they said, "Well, maybe let's get them both
08:26 "on a stage at the same time,
08:28 "and Biden will surprise people
08:30 "because he will do a better job
08:32 "because expectations are super low,
08:34 "and Trump will disappoint
08:36 "'cause he can't possibly deliver on his promises."
08:39 At least that's the theory.
08:41 And so they've said, "Let's do a game changer.
08:44 "If Trump falters, I think it could alter the race
08:47 "two to four points.
08:48 "If Biden puts in a weak performance,
08:51 "he could have a very, very shaky convention coming up."
08:55 'Cause a lot of people will be worried.
08:57 - I know you think this is,
08:58 or you said that this is high-risk for the Biden campaign.
09:01 Is it also high-reward too?
09:03 I mean, does it have the potential to be high-reward?
09:07 - Absolutely.
09:09 A good debate by Biden here would blow away expectations,
09:12 deal with the idea that he's too old, bring Trump down.
09:16 And so I think you've got a lot of efforts here
09:19 where the campaign, I think, made a decision
09:23 to take the risk, hopefully get a reward,
09:26 and run the risk figuring,
09:29 "Hey, we're gonna have our convention anyway.
09:30 "What difference is it gonna make?"
09:32 - Does Trump similarly have as big of a payday, really,
09:37 when it comes to this debate as Biden would?
09:40 - I'm surprised Trump accepted so quickly.
09:44 If I were in his campaign,
09:45 I would have put a few more conditions on.
09:47 I would have made sure I got a mix of moderators
09:49 so it wasn't just from one of the networks.
09:51 I would have ended that practice.
09:53 I would have restructured the debate more.
09:56 After all, he didn't need the debate.
09:57 He's winning.
09:58 Biden needed the debate, and Trump accepted so quickly
10:03 that I think Biden got the, and the Biden camp
10:06 got the better of the Trump camp
10:07 and the setup for the debate.
10:09 And the setup for the debate is,
10:11 well, it's not the whole debate,
10:12 but it's a good part of it.
10:14 - Trump currently faces legal challenges, as we know.
10:18 If he does find himself convicted
10:20 between now and election day,
10:22 is that going to change voters' minds at all?
10:24 - Well, being convicted of a felony last time I looked
10:28 will never be good for a candidate for office.
10:31 Is that gonna happen?
10:33 I think that we're gonna get a very good inkling of that
10:36 in the New York verdict.
10:38 People have always considered the New York trial
10:41 on the hush money payments to be sort of irrelevant,
10:45 not count all that much.
10:48 Still, a conviction will be something
10:51 that gives voters pause.
10:53 On the other hand, a hung jury or an acquittal
10:57 will be a huge boost to the Trump campaign
10:59 in the middle of summer or the beginning of summer here.
11:04 And I think that, if I had to bet,
11:09 I think it's more likely you'll see a hung jury
11:11 than anything else, but that's because no one
11:13 can really agree on politics,
11:15 and I doubt anybody could agree on this case.
11:18 - Talk about how voters feel based on your poll
11:21 about his legal challenges.
11:23 Right now, we're in May, end of May,
11:25 about six months away from election day.
11:27 - Well, polling is not very good
11:30 about predicting the outcomes of things
11:32 that have never happened before.
11:34 So we can ask questions and say,
11:35 well, okay, if he's convicted of this,
11:37 will you vote for him?
11:38 When I worked with President Clinton,
11:40 a lot of people said, if President Clinton is impeached,
11:43 he should resign.
11:44 But it turned out we didn't resign
11:46 and were eventually victorious.
11:48 So while I love polls, on things that have never happened
11:53 before, like presidential convictions,
11:56 when the charges are disputed
11:58 and seen through a political lens,
12:02 what is that really gonna do here?
12:04 I'm gonna say, obviously, it's not gonna,
12:06 I don't think it'll help Trump unless he gets acquitted
12:09 in the hung jury, in which case it might.
12:11 How much will it hurt him?
12:13 I think that's highly unpredictable at this point.
12:15 And we're gonna have to actually wait and see.
12:18 - Let's now move to the veep stakes here.
12:21 Donald Trump floated some potential names
12:23 last week to a reporter.
12:24 He mentioned people like his HUD secretary, Ben Carson,
12:28 representatives J.D. Vance and Elise Stefanik,
12:30 as well as Senator Marco Rubio.
12:32 Other names that have been floated
12:34 are North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum,
12:36 as well as Senator Tim Scott.
12:38 Who do voters want to be his running mate,
12:42 according to your poll?
12:43 - Well, I think Donald Trump has been masterful
12:46 in this so far.
12:48 I mean, he is the apprentice king,
12:50 so he knows how to build some mystery and excitement
12:53 over who's gonna be vice president.
12:55 And I think he's doing a good job at that.
12:58 I think our polling in general shows that
13:01 if he did Tim Scott or Marco Rubio,
13:04 those probably would be smart choices.
13:07 Nikki Haley, of course, would be a great choice,
13:10 but she's probably not in the running in either direction.
13:14 There's maybe too much friction there
13:17 for that to be a credible vice presidential choice.
13:21 But I think a choice that he makes
13:23 that really appeals more to voters in the center
13:26 will help him.
13:27 And I think if he picks someone too far to the right,
13:30 that will probably hurt him.
13:32 And I think he knows that.
13:33 - Could the right vice presidential candidate
13:36 maybe persuade an independent,
13:38 perhaps even a Democrat or an average Trumper
13:41 to vote for Trump, maybe hold their nose and vote for him,
13:45 knowing that their running mate is more mainstream?
13:47 - We always look at these VP choices
13:50 and how much time goes into them.
13:52 And then with a few exceptions,
13:54 like I think Sarah Palin was probably a negative choice
13:58 for McCain.
13:59 Most of the time, they don't make a lot of difference
14:02 at the end of the day,
14:03 but they signal something about the campaign.
14:06 They're a message, right?
14:07 When Bill Clinton chose Al Gore,
14:09 it was a new generation to government.
14:11 So who is he gonna choose and what message will it send?
14:16 Clearly, I believe the more either candidate
14:19 reaches out to voters in the middle,
14:21 the more likely they are to succeed with their message.
14:24 - Mark, anything in this Harvard Caps Harris poll
14:28 that we didn't touch on that really stuck out to you
14:30 that you wanna dive into?
14:31 - Well, one thing I'd say is that the student protests
14:37 were received quite negatively by the voters.
14:40 They were very much against them, 70, 80%,
14:44 opposing the protests.
14:47 I think they reflected quite negatively on academia
14:52 and put a spotlight in a negative way
14:55 on what could be going on at the universities.
14:58 And I think it's gonna increase the call for public reform
15:02 of the universities, how they're approaching things,
15:06 what they're teaching and how they are treating
15:09 academic freedom within the right bounds.
15:13 I think all of those things are gonna get reexamined.
15:15 I think the voters really reacted negatively
15:18 to what happened on the campuses.
15:20 - Do you think that hurts Democrats
15:23 and impacts them more than Republicans?
15:25 Because Republicans were pretty united in their messaging
15:27 on the campus protests.
15:30 Democrats were split.
15:32 Some were bashing the protests,
15:34 others joined the encampments.
15:36 So what do you think about that?
15:38 - I don't know that it's gonna play out
15:40 as a big issue directly in the election.
15:43 I think, remember, voters are really concerned
15:46 about bread and butter issues here.
15:48 Economy, immigration, crime, middle-class life,
15:52 inflation, expenses.
15:54 They may have a view on these other issues,
15:56 but I don't think those are the central voting ones.
15:58 The central voting ones are really what's happened here.
16:03 A middle-class person, when they go to fuel their car,
16:07 buy their eggs, get a mortgage, have a house,
16:10 all of those things, how has that changed
16:13 and how is the administration
16:15 and the president affecting that?
16:17 The voters are very focused on that.
16:19 And I think they definitely have strong opinions.
16:22 They're opposed to what happened in the universities.
16:25 They don't think that the foreign policy
16:27 is in the right direction,
16:27 but that's not really what's deciding this election.
16:31 - Mark, read the tea leaves for us.
16:32 We sit here less than six months out from the election.
16:36 What are you looking for?
16:37 - I'm looking for something
16:39 that's gonna change the dynamic.
16:42 Will the VP in some sense change the dynamic?
16:44 Will the debate change the dynamic?
16:46 Will things change in Israel?
16:48 Hamas might change the dynamic.
16:50 I don't think, will inflation come down
16:56 to some greater extent or will it go back up?
16:59 Will interest rates start to come down?
17:01 What is going to change things?
17:03 Everybody knows both of these candidates.
17:06 31% are saying, I've made up my mind tentatively,
17:09 but I could change.
17:11 And then you have to look at what are the game changers?
17:14 And then we'll take another look like summer goes by
17:17 and then the voters get together with their families.
17:20 And usually what I call the post-Labor Day decision
17:23 is where this thing comes out.
17:25 - Well, Mark Penn, per usual,
17:27 thank you so much for coming on
17:28 and breaking it down for us.
17:30 Already looking forward to the next conversation.
17:32 - Thank you.
17:33 - Happy.
17:34 - Thanks.
17:35 (silence)
17:37 (silence)
17:39 (silence)
17:41 [BLANK_AUDIO]