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00:00 Well, let's get some more analysis. We can speak to Ian Reifowitz, who's a professor of history at Empire State College at the State University of New York,
00:06 and also the author of Obama's America, a transformative vision of our national identity.
00:11 Great to have you back with us here on France 34, Professor.
00:14 Just talk us through what your predictions are for when we're going to know what.
00:19 Well, predictions, I'm happy to give predictions, of course, there are little more than guesses, but we do have some polling to go on.
00:28 There have been four significant, reputable polls in the last few months, and they are that a decent percentage of voters who say they would vote for Trump would reconsider
00:41 if he were convicted of a crime, specifically in this trial, or of a felony in general.
00:45 The groups where we're seeing the most movement in particular are young voters who say they support Trump,
00:51 and independents who are so important because they are actually a large bloc who can swing back and forth between Democrats and Republicans.
00:58 Now, could we be talking about Trump losing 5% of his voters, maybe 10% of his voters?
01:04 Well, as your reporter said, in a close neck and neck election, that's more than enough to swing the verdict from a Trump return to the White House to a Biden re-election.
01:15 Yeah, but the fact that we're six months away from the election there in the US might mean that this is all sort of rather a distant memory by then, especially if he's not convicted.
01:25 If he's not convicted, yeah, if he's not convicted, I don't think it hurts Trump really at all.
01:30 You've got people who are in the camp of Trump and who are getting their media from Trump-friendly sources, let's say,
01:38 and I don't think that, you know, if there's no conviction, then nothing about this trial is going to change their minds.
01:44 But the question is, could there be something that can change the narrative, especially when we're talking about people like, two people like Biden and Trump, who are so well-known,
01:51 who have been in the public eye for so long and who have been at the front and center of the public eye for so long?
01:56 I would argue, and again, the polling backs this up, that a conviction in a trial by jurors, regular Americans who looked at the evidence, who are not political people,
02:08 is something that can break through the narrative.
02:10 People haven't necessarily made up their minds yet, and this is the kind of thing, I would argue, that could shift a few percent of voters.
02:18 And again, that's what polling shows.
02:20 If you believe what people are saying, there is a possibility that this could have a small but important effect on the outcome.
02:28 Think about Hillary Clinton in 2016.
02:30 James Comey, the FBI director, came out not even with, you know, this wasn't even a conviction.
02:35 He came out with a statement a couple of weeks before the election.
02:38 We're re-looking into the investigation of Hillary Clinton having done something wrong.
02:42 Well, this is much more than, if you have a conviction, that's much more than looking into an investigation.
02:47 It's a finding of guilt.
02:48 I do think that could have an impact.
02:51 OK, but just to be clear, Donald Trump being convicted in this trial would perhaps change voters' opinions,
02:58 but it wouldn't change the fact that he's entitled to run for president once again in November.
03:03 He could still run, couldn't he, even with a conviction?
03:06 Absolutely.
03:07 Absolutely.
03:08 The Supreme Court has already said that he's on the ballot.
03:10 Look, we had a, in the United States, we had a gentleman named Eugene V. Debs,
03:15 who ran for president, was on the ballot while he was serving a prison sentence,
03:20 and he got about 6 percent of the popular vote, not enough to win.
03:24 But he was on the ballot.
03:26 And so Donald Trump absolutely could be on the ballot.
03:29 He could be convicted.
03:30 He could be imprisoned and still, in theory, win election.
03:35 Would that happen?
03:36 You know, that remains to be seen.
03:37 It's been quite an eventful day in New York today.
03:40 We had Robert De Niro talking to us here on France 24 a little earlier on,
03:44 and obviously he's a staunch Trump critic.
03:47 We also heard from Donald Trump, who described today, well, via his defence,
03:52 as being a very dangerous day for America.
03:55 What do you think he's getting at there?
03:57 Well, he's trying to make an argument that the justice system is tilted against him.
04:05 It's an interesting argument.
04:06 Republicans have typically been associated with what they would,
04:10 and Trump also would call law and order, backing up the criminal justice system,
04:15 backing up law enforcement.
04:17 Well, now Mr. Trump is saying that because I'm the one on trial,
04:20 something is rotten, something is corrupt.
04:22 This is a dangerous thing, and it is unprecedented for a presidential candidate,
04:28 for a former president, to basically say, listen, judges and juries,
04:32 they don't really count in America if they're against me.
04:36 So we have a segment of the population, not everybody who's voting for Trump,
04:40 but a decent percentage of the people who, let's say, believe in Trump,
04:44 who are going to have real problems with a guilty verdict
04:49 and have real problems believing in our system of justice.
04:52 That's a dangerous thing because it undermines the rule of law
04:55 that's so essential for any democracy, any constitutional democracy,
04:58 to function properly.
05:00 And just lastly, a reminder for all of us,
05:03 this is one of a number of criminal,
05:06 sorry, a number of legal woes that Donald Trump faces.
05:10 But many would say this is the most significant.
05:13 Why do people say that about this and not the other three?
05:16 Well, it's the most significant because it's the only one that's happening
05:19 before the election.
05:21 All right. He's he's under a total of 91 indictments.
05:24 There are 34 in this case.
05:26 So I'm a history professor, not a math professor,
05:29 but that still leaves a good number of it.
05:31 These other trials are less likely to to run their course before the election.
05:35 There is probably the most significant trial, the most important one for him.
05:39 Florida. There is a judge there, Aileen Cannon, who at least by all appearances
05:44 seems to be helping Trump by delaying it at every step.
05:47 She is a Trump appointee.
05:49 That's the one that might be more likely than any other to result in conviction
05:52 if she can push it off until the election.
05:54 I shouldn't say she, if it can be put on the election and he wins,
05:58 then the trial can go away because he can simply dismiss it.
06:00 The New York one is a state trial and a conviction in a state court
06:04 cannot be pardoned even by a newly elected President Trump.
06:09 The other ones are all federal trials.
06:11 OK, well, thank you so much for helping us make sense of all of these
06:14 legal wranglings and goings on in the United States.
06:17 Thank you so much, Professor Ian Rofevitz at Empire State College
06:20 of the State University of New York.
06:22 [BLANK_AUDIO]