NBA Playoffs: Timberwolves vs Mavericks Conference Finals
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00:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]
00:03 This show is called The Early Line.
00:05 Now we look at the early lines for conference finals
00:08 action in the NBA playoffs.
00:11 It starts tomorrow night out in the Eastern Conference
00:14 Final between the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers.
00:18 Wednesday evening in Minneapolis,
00:20 it's the Timberwolves and the Dallas Mavericks.
00:23 Minnesota, back in the Western Conference Finals
00:26 for the first time in two decades since 2004.
00:30 Dallas there once again led by Luka Doncic.
00:34 It was game number six in Dallas against OKC,
00:37 a wild ending on Saturday night where the Thunder were up big.
00:42 The Mavericks stormed all the way back.
00:43 So now it's the 3C, the Timberwolves,
00:46 taking on the 5C out West, the Mavericks.
00:49 And Minnesota DRS booked as a minus 180,
00:52 minus 180 outright favorite to win the West
00:56 and advance to the NBA Finals.
00:58 You can see how close it looks from the outright perspective,
01:03 the series spread perspective for Minnesota
01:05 to win this series in six games or fewer.
01:09 That's what the series spread is indicating.
01:11 Lay in a game and a half, it's plus 118 for Dallas
01:14 either to win the series or get it to seven
01:17 is what is the more likely scenario based on the juice.
01:21 Plus one and a half games at minus 144.
01:25 Donnie, I am kicking myself on this Monday morning.
01:28 Yesterday getting ready for this show.
01:30 Before game seven last night at altitude,
01:32 I had the nuggets to win the West.
01:34 I had the nuggets to win the series.
01:36 So I did have a little bit of a hedge out option
01:38 on the Timberwolves as a four and a half point dog
01:41 entering game seven last night in Denver.
01:43 What I failed to do, and I'm mad at myself for it,
01:47 Minnesota had the longest of the three teams
01:50 still remaining in the Western Conference
01:52 entering game seven last night.
01:54 Longest price, plus 310.
01:56 Why I did not bet that number, I do not know.
02:00 Minnesota now a minus 180 series outright favorite
02:04 to win the Western Conference crown.
02:06 - And they should be, they really should be.
02:07 'Cause I think they're the better overall team
02:09 than the Dallas Mavericks.
02:10 But when you have superstar players like Luka Doncic,
02:12 certainly there's a chance that they can change up
02:14 this series.
02:15 But if we're just being optimistic,
02:17 I do think this game is, this series,
02:19 I should say, is going to at least six games.
02:20 We're not looking at a gentleman's sweep here
02:22 because you're too talented on that side
02:24 of the basketball for Dallas.
02:25 And also, I wouldn't be surprised if we even had a split
02:28 over the first two games in Minnesota.
02:30 You also have to look at it from a timeframe
02:32 where you take a look at Dallas,
02:33 who knocked off the number one overall seed in OKC.
02:35 Wonderful stuff, got a job done in game six,
02:38 didn't want to force a game seven.
02:39 And Luka Doncic was tremendous with a triple double.
02:42 Couple days later here, he gets a little bit more time,
02:44 the rest of that creaky knee that he has.
02:47 I expect big things.
02:48 But here's the difference in these two teams, Ben.
02:50 You saw the best player on the Minnesota Timberwolves
02:53 in that last series in game number seven,
02:55 basically not perform up to his capabilities.
02:57 On the road, they still won that game.
02:59 The question marks always come up for me for Dallas is,
03:02 when you don't get those big time efforts
03:04 out of Luka Doncic,
03:05 can a team like the Mavericks win in that environment?
03:07 I'm not so sure of that.
03:09 Now also, different series,
03:10 different defensive philosophies.
03:12 I'm really looking forward to see what I'm getting out
03:14 of Kyrie Irving in this round,
03:15 because when you take a look at winning a series,
03:18 which is the most important thing,
03:19 we're used to Kyrie being over 20 points,
03:21 knocking down multiple three-point shots,
03:23 playing a lot of minutes in a game.
03:25 He was ineffective on offense,
03:26 but really was that a case of OKC taking him
03:28 out of the game saying, all right,
03:30 we'll let Luka get his,
03:31 but try to tie down everybody else.
03:33 That's what I'm looking forward to most.
03:35 But if we're just being honest with ourselves,
03:36 the better team is Minnesota here.
03:38 Now they just have to prove it.
03:40 - Yeah, and that's where the odds makers stack this up.
03:43 Not only home floor advantage baked into that number,
03:46 but if Minnesota can knock out the reigning champs
03:49 and win a game seven in Denver,
03:51 I think it proves all we need to know
03:53 about the Timberwolves.
03:54 And DRS, you and I spent the entirety
03:56 of this NBA regular season discussed at the end of the day
04:00 with Minnesota and OKC battling it out for the top spot.
04:04 Could they hold off Denver?
04:06 Could those other teams,
04:07 once we reach the Western Conference playoffs,
04:10 like the LA Clippers, like the Phoenix Suns,
04:12 maybe like the Lakers or the Warriors,
04:14 would they make a run with all their post-season pedigree
04:17 and experience for Minnesota to prove time and again,
04:20 answer each and every question,
04:22 pass each and every test to get to this point
04:25 and have home floor advantage
04:26 in the Western Conference Finals.
04:28 It speaks to this team.
04:31 The last time that Dallas
04:32 was in the Western Conference Finals, that was 2022.
04:36 The last time Minnesota was here, that was 2004.
04:40 Outside of the Boston Celtics,
04:42 the only other team to win a Larry O'Brien trophy,
04:45 the NBA championship of the Final Four in the NBA,
04:49 that is the Mavericks.
04:50 Some great research behind the scenes
04:52 from our producer, Joe Frizzo.
04:55 So all of these teams, at least with these cores,
04:57 with this group, with these rosters,
05:00 a little bit unexperienced into this time.
05:04 And when you look at the odds, Donnie,
05:06 just not outside of who is favored to win this series,
05:09 that is Minnesota,
05:10 it goes to speak about what we can expect.
05:13 The shortest number for this series to end
05:16 is six games at two to one
05:18 in the series total games market.
05:20 But five and seven are the same price of plus 220.
05:24 Take it one step further.
05:25 Shortest price in the series correct score.
05:27 That means the team to win the series
05:30 and in how many games they get it done,
05:32 it's Minnesota in seven, four games to three,
05:35 at a four to one price.
05:36 Four to one, relatively long,
05:38 as we'll compare it to the Eastern Conference
05:41 in just a moment.
05:42 Second best number is Dallas in six at plus 470.
05:46 The odds makers, frankly, don't really have
05:50 that much of a clear clue of who wins this series.
05:54 That would be Minnesota.
05:55 But how long it goes, I think it's at least six games.
05:59 But at the end of the day,
06:00 I think the Timberwolves win the West.
06:02 - Yeah, and by the way, we will be treated
06:04 to a great series if it does go seven.
06:06 I can't wait for that to match up
06:07 because we're not anticipating that great of a series
06:09 in the Eastern Conference.
06:10 So hopefully this one can carry.
06:12 But I agree with you here,
06:13 when you're taking a look at the Boston Celtics
06:15 and how they line up against the teams
06:16 in the Western Conference,
06:17 because so many times it's that championship pedigree
06:20 that wheels you over the top.
06:21 And the Boston Celtics don't really have
06:23 that championship pedigree with this team.
06:25 Multiple Eastern Conference finals appearances.
06:28 You take a look at the NBA finals,
06:29 it just hasn't worked out for the Celtics.
06:31 But now there's no more excuses.
06:32 Oh, look, my goodness, they get Denver,
06:34 who just won it last year.
06:35 They're used to it.
06:36 They'll be able to handle the pressure.
06:37 So that is a case here for the Boston Celtics to win it.
06:40 But also, let's take a look at some other odds aspects here
06:43 of the Western Conference finals.
06:44 We do this a lot.
06:45 And typically in the NCAA, it's like, okay,
06:47 is your team going to win the championship?
06:49 Can you get better odds for the MOP if your guy wins it,
06:52 as opposed to just playing a big number?
06:54 The reason why it was tough to do with Connecticut,
06:55 there was multiple guys that you were figuring
06:57 do have a crack at that.
06:58 Well, let's take a look at this conference with the MVP.
07:01 Anthony Edwards, minus 150 price.
07:03 Luka Doncic, plus 165.
07:05 You take a look at the prices.
07:06 Minus 180 is a favorite for the Timberwolves,
07:08 plus 146 here for the Dallas Mavericks.
07:10 To me, it seems easy.
07:12 If you are going to win this series,
07:13 even though in game number seven,
07:15 it didn't work out where Anthony Edwards had a great game,
07:17 it's going to be Anthony Edwards
07:18 that's going to lead this team if they win it.
07:20 Same thing with Luka Doncic.
07:21 In what world would it be where Kyrie Irving
07:23 at a 16 to one price is the better player
07:25 over, let's just say, a seven game series?
07:27 So I always think those prices are intriguing.
07:29 Anthony Edwards, Luka Doncic,
07:30 I think you have some value
07:32 if you just bet the conference finals MVP,
07:34 as opposed to just who's going to win the series.
07:36 Itself.
07:37 - I mean, those odds mirror exactly
07:40 the series outright prices.
07:41 Minus 184, Minnesota.
07:43 Their star is Anthony Edwards.
07:44 It's minus 150.
07:46 Dallas to win the series outright is plus 146.
07:50 Luka is 19 cents difference
07:52 in his own individual aspect at plus 165.
07:56 It is a narrative award at the end of the day.
07:58 Even if PJ Washington has a better few games in there,
08:01 or Kyrie Irving has a better game four than Luka Doncic,
08:05 it does not matter.
08:06 If Dallas wins based on the narrative,
08:08 Luka is going to be the reason
08:09 that Dallas got to the finish line.
08:11 Same story for the Ant-Man on the other side.
08:14 Narratives win out.
08:17 In game number one,
08:18 I'm very intrigued to see how this plays out
08:21 because Minnesota has home floor advantage.
08:23 Minus four.
08:25 Four point favorite for game number one.
08:27 Total of 206 and a half.
08:30 A couple of strong trends entering this series.
08:33 The Mavs have been booked as an underdog
08:35 four times in this postseason.
08:37 Three and one straight up and against the spread.
08:39 Minnesota, in all four victories
08:42 in their second round series against Denver.
08:44 Total state under.
08:45 Again, I know we have those game one odds.
08:47 Four point spread in favor of the Timberwolves.
08:49 206 and a half.
08:51 Is that over under for the opening game?
08:54 Donnie, if I think Minnesota holds serve on their home floor,
08:57 I lean under for game number one.
08:59 - Yeah, you're probably right on that.
09:00 And also, the chances here,
09:02 you have the Dallas Mavericks
09:03 with a little bit extra rest,
09:04 but also didn't have to go game number seven.
09:07 Is that game number seven gonna be a carryover
09:09 or sort of a letdown at this point for Minnesota?
09:11 Like, okay, we just beat the champions.
09:13 Now it's on to the next one.
09:14 Maybe Dallas can steal a game early in that series.
09:17 (upbeat music)
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