Timberwolves vs Mavericks & Celtics vs Pacers: Finals Preview
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00 So we expect an all-out gauntlet in the Western Conference finals between the Minnesota Timberwolves
00:09 and the Dallas Mavericks.
00:10 The T-Wolves an odds-on favorite to win the series outright at -180.
00:16 It's a different story though, DRS, in the Eastern Conference.
00:19 Between the Boston Celtics, the team expected to be at this stage all season long and the
00:25 Indiana Pacers.
00:27 -1250, -1250 is the series price outright for an Eastern Conference finals matchup between
00:36 the Celtics and the Pacers.
00:37 So I guess the question to you, Donnie, is this series going to be any more competitive
00:43 than the odds makers expect?
00:46 I do.
00:47 Competitive doesn't mean that the Pacers are going to win the series, I don't think they
00:50 can do that.
00:51 But competitive might mean going six games and something that we can all enjoy.
00:55 And also as you saw that graphic posted up here from this morning, at a +710 price to
00:59 win the series for the Indiana Pacers, that is just lowered momentarily here to a +680
01:04 price.
01:05 And I agree with that.
01:06 Like, why not just take a flyer on the Pacers?
01:08 Because sometimes it's not necessarily about what that ticket is going to do and can you
01:13 see out the +680 price right now.
01:16 But if you do think that the Pacers can be competitive and maybe get a split on the home
01:20 court like the past two teams have done here, including the Cavaliers and also the Miami
01:24 Heat in games number two in the Boston Garden, that maybe you can go back with a 1-1 split
01:29 with a better Pacers team than what we saw or thought of, I should say, over those first
01:33 two rounds.
01:34 So the +680 price might be worth a flyer because if they can get a 1-1 series split in Boston,
01:40 you can turn that ticket into some money.
01:42 That number is crazy because also, do I think the Celtics win the series?
01:46 Absolutely, I do.
01:47 But that price point at -1250, do factor in, okay, let's just say Porzingis doesn't come
01:52 back the first two games, right?
01:53 That's already hamstrings a little bit there at the Boston Celtics.
01:57 But you can't ever count out a price point that big where you go, "Oh no, Jalen Brown
02:01 cracked his wrist here and he's going to be out."
02:04 I'm not saying we anticipate that, but it's a little bit easier to swallow.
02:07 Like, "Okay, I laid -180, a couple injuries for Boston, didn't work out.
02:11 You laid -1250 and you get an injury there?
02:13 Now you say, "Why did I lay this big of a number here?"
02:16 Too many factors to take the Celtics.
02:18 The only way I would look is towards the Pacers +680, get a split in games one, two, and maybe
02:22 you can hedge out of that ticket later.
02:25 And that was going to move the odds drastically for this series if that's how things play
02:30 out.
02:31 Let's call a spade a spade, right?
02:33 Boston and Indiana both have been tremendous beneficiaries in their opening two series
02:38 due to injury.
02:40 Boston played Miami without Jimmy Butler.
02:43 And then Cleveland for a good majority of the series without Donovan Mitchell.
02:47 Game number five, barely anybody recognizable on Cleveland.
02:52 That's a shot to some of the Cavaliers, I guess, but I don't mean it as such.
02:55 Just Spida not there, Jared Allen not there, Karras-Lavert not available for game number
03:00 five.
03:01 Closed as a 16-point favor did Boston, the largest spread in their favor since at least
03:05 1990 in NBA playoff action.
03:09 Indiana in its opening round did not have to face Giannis for Milwaukee.
03:13 Damian Lillard not available for a couple of games in that series.
03:17 And then, of course, in round number two, the banged-up New York Knicks.
03:20 No OG and an OB, no Mitchell Robinson at that point.
03:24 And then Jalen Brunson injured late in game number seven.
03:27 Not sure it would have made a difference, but it just is what it is.
03:32 Will we see injuries rear their ugly head in this series?
03:35 We hope not.
03:36 But it's been a story of the postseason runs for both of these clubs in the Eastern Conference
03:41 playoffs.
03:42 Donnie alluded to it.
03:43 ESPN's Adrian Wojnowski yesterday saying he expects, based on sources, Christoph Porzingis
03:49 to miss both games one and two of this Eastern Conference Finals.
03:54 We'll get to where Boston stands in that game one price in just a moment.
03:59 But Donnie, the Celtics have had a pretty similar script so far in this postseason.
04:05 Seven of their eight wins by at least 13 points, and they have covered in six of those seven
04:11 victories.
04:12 But they have also dropped each of the game twos in their first two series, booked as
04:17 at least a 13 and a half point home favorite, losing by double digits.
04:23 And they got hammered by Cleveland by more than 20 points in game number two.
04:28 I have said I have a ticket on the Celtics at a plus 220 number to win the NBA championship
04:34 from the end of March.
04:35 And yet I worry about Boston at a certain point, maybe not here against Indiana, but
04:41 certainly in an NBA Finals against a competitive Minnesota or Dallas team.
04:46 Yet they have those games that we almost expect where they just don't show up or they lay
04:52 a dud.
04:54 Because of that, I do think this series goes six.
04:57 I do not agree with the oddsmakers.
04:59 I don't think this is another gentleman's sweep in favor of Boston.
05:03 So I think my best bet for the Eastern Conference Finals is Indiana getting two and a half games
05:09 on that series spread number a plus 132 price.
05:13 Yeah, they're a quality basketball team.
05:15 The one thing we do know, they can score.
05:17 They don't play great defense overall.
05:18 And that's really going to be a test going up against Boston.
05:21 So many chances to beat you and so many guys that can fire from three point range.
05:25 We'll see if that defensive game plan does get a little bit better.
05:28 But for a team with the Knicks that didn't have a lot of great upper echelon talent while
05:32 they were healthy, they scored quite a few points against that Indiana defense.
05:36 We'll see what that turns over.
05:37 But my biggest question is going to be, what are we getting out of the Boston Celtics?
05:41 What did the Celtics have to show us that there are legitimate NBA contender?
05:44 You might say, what are you talking about?
05:45 They're the favorites at minus 160.
05:47 Of course they are.
05:48 But I feel like that we're looking at that opening round series like they didn't play
05:51 anybody in Miami.
05:52 Yeah, they won in five games.
05:53 They should have swept.
05:54 They didn't really play anybody here injury wise against Cleveland.
05:57 They won in five games.
05:58 They should have swept.
05:59 Are we expecting a sweep and we don't give them any bonus points moving into the NBA
06:03 Finals?
06:04 Because quite frankly, if you're dispatching teams in five games or less, that's very impressive.
06:07 And even if you do go to six games and win it in Indiana, that's still impressive getting
06:11 a four to two game, you know, series win before you head off to the NBA Finals.
06:15 So I think we're playing with a little bit of fire saying we're hoping the Celtics sort
06:19 of show us something here, even though they won both their series four, one, four, one
06:22 at this point.
06:23 That's what I'm waiting to see.
06:25 That public outcry of let's you see if the Celtics lose games one or two on their home
06:28 court.
06:29 Like, oh boy, wait till they get to the NBA Finals.
06:32 But yet still win the series in five games.
06:34 Yeah.
06:35 And that is the funny thing, right?
06:37 With great expectation, we expect great results.
06:40 Celtics, as of this moment, a nine and a half point favorite for game number one of the
07:05 Eastern Conference Finals with a total at 221 in a hook, which speaks to Indiana pacing
07:11 things up and maybe a lack of defense on that side for the Pacers.
07:16 Yeah.
07:17 Yeah.
07:18 Yeah.
07:19 Yeah.
07:19 [MUSIC]